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Articles by Possum Comitatus

The polls after Rudd: state-by-state breakdown smiles on Labor

Now that politics has reset itself, it’s worth looking at the polls since the change of PM — the results of which can pretty much be described as consensus … Rudd poll boost, ALP becomes competitive, etc. But there’s something else worth talking about: what’s going on underneath these topline national results. Unless one side starts running […]

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Robocalls and megapolls: secrets of a modern political campaign

Let’s kick the door down on the secrecy and see how a modern campaign actually runs — the research involved, the technology, the analysis, the logistics of the ground game and the capabilities that get brought to the table when all of these things become integrated. Let’s look at the anatomy of a modern campaign — not just any […]

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Queensland’s mega-poll: privatisation and voting intention

The largest scientific political poll undertaken in Australian history has just been released. Over the next week or so, we’ll examine it. It was commissioned by Together — Queensland’s public sector union (caveat: my employer) — and undertaken by ReachTEL. The sample size was 36,323 conducted across all 89 Queensland electorates. The poll asked the following questions: The Queensland […]

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Pollytrend: cut out the noise and Labor’s numbers are up

The new polling trends — taken before the release of the latest Newspoll figures today — come in with the Labor recovery in the headline two-party preferred breaking the 48-point barrier for the first time since February 2011. While the carbon tax is often described as the single driver for the government’s recovery in public support, if we zoom […]

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Possum: PM and the polls, the new primary dynamic

There is extraordinary growth in the relationship between perceptions of the prime minister and the electoral fortunes of the governments they lead. It’s a statistical analysis of our new primary dynamic. We all know there’s a relationship between the vote a government receives in the polls and the satisfaction with the prime minister of the […]

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Possum: the Qld Treasurer needs to redo his sums

New governments are always the last to realise that the only thing new about governance and public policy happens to be them.

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Possum: what we think about the economy

What do Australians believe about the economy? What do we believe the role is for government in our society and its economy today?

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Possum: the polling state of play in June

If you’re wondering what the hell is going on lately with the polls being all over the shop, the time is ripe to run our trend measures to get a better grip on it all.

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Possum: Labor’s problem is an immovable 2PP vote

As we all get reacquainted with the madness that is the first week of the new political season, the time is ripe to do a bit of a comprehensive rundown about the actual state of play of  our political polling. We’ll start off looking at the trends and finish with an election simulation for the […]

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Possum: Australian exceptionalism on an eight-lane highway

Australian exceptionalism” … let that phrase roll off your tongue. Now stop laughing for a moment if you can. There’s something about that phrase that just doesn’t sit right with us. We’re not only unaccustomed to thinking about ourselves that way, but for many it’s a concept that is one part distasteful to three parts utterly […]

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Possum: how Australian pollsters lean

We can never really tell if any pollster delivers results that are actually higher or lower for a party than other pollsters, because we just don’t have elections every week to determine the true state of public opinion.

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Tax forum gave us naked policy debate and no horseshit

If you want to improve the debate in Australia, if you want real public debate in this country rather than the dismal sloganeering of the unhinged — this tax forum is a marvelous template.

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Possum: Pollytrend metrics have Labor in palliative care

With a bag of polling data bursting at the seams, it’s that time of year again where we not only update our Pollytrend metrics.

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Possum: polling trends — spring session edition

With the Parliament set to start its spring sitting session today, it might be worth taking a look at the current state of play on the polling trends using our Pollytrend system.

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Possum: Labor’s worst month in government

This quarter has seen everything move towards the Coalition.

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Possum: a budget so tough, Chuck Norris checks under the bed for it

Regardless of your politics, when politicians put some serious thought into public policy, they should be commended.

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Possum: CSIRO gets insulation program to debunking media hysteria

The CSIRO last week released what was effectively a statistical analysis of the reality surrounding large parts of the infamous Home Insulation Program.l

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Possum: crashes and rebounds in polling trends

Time for a polling trends update.

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Possum: carbon price opinion — the starting gates

Over the next 12 months, we’ll have more polls on pricing carbon than we can poke a stick at.

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Possum: what’s a $1.8 billion levy look like?

The floods arent costing nearly as much as some may have earlier feared.

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Possum: floods, prices and mortality

Just about every large destructive event — be it flood, fire or cyclone — has consequences on the prices of goods and services at the local level.

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Possum: public opinion on same-s-x marriage

With three separate polls released over the past couple of months gauging public opinion on same-s-x marriage, it’s worth taking a squiz at how opinion has changed over the past few years.

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Possum: how the once-mighty ALP fell

One of the more astonishing things about the federal election result is how the ALP managed to destroy such an enormous amount of public goodwill over such a relatively small time frame.

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Possum: Bligh looking to remove optional preferential voting

There is no doubt at all that optional preferential voting existing at the state level increases the size of the informal vote at the federal election in those states.

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More Morgan Reactor testing of US mid-term ads

We have a new batch of US mid-term ads that have been run through the Roy Morgan Reactor audience response testing (using US citizens and with the technology deployed online) — giving some pretty interesting results, especially by party breakdown. Looking at the latest batch of ads, they’re all “Vote for me! Vote for me!” type stuff […]

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