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Articles by William Bowe

The verdict is in on pollsters: Coalition bias, electorate polls fail

The final results are in on the 2013 federal election — so which pollster was closest to the mark? Our crack analyst crunches the numbers to produce some surprising results.

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Welcome to Australia in 2014, an all-Coalition country

It’s likely that the Coalition will hold a near-clean sweep of state governments next year. Crikey hits the archives to ask if this will pose a problem for Tony Abbott.

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With Rudd gone, what now for Griffith?

Kevin Rudd’s announcement that he will resign from Parliament at the end of the week provides the occasion for a) renewed debate about his political legacy, which I will leave to others to pursue (in some cases for the rest of your lives), and b) the breaking of the longest federal byelection drought since 1951. […]

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How Julian Assange could become a WA senator

The High Court is almost certainly going to call for a fresh election in WA. That means a fresh set of candidates — and Julian Assange could have another tilt at the Senate.

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Sorry, WA, you’re going back to the polls (don’t blame the AEC)

There may be just one or two votes between two of the minor parties in the Western Australian Senate election, so voters will be heading back to the polls. But that doesn’t mean the system is broken.

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How to avoid a fresh WA Senate election

With 1375 votes missing, will Western Australians be forced back to the polls over the disputed Senate result? The courts will decide, but our resident psephologist says it could be avoided.

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A NSW byelection shock, and Labor grinds into gear

There’s life in the old (Labor) dog yet. The NSW ALP romped home in a byelection on Saturday, with a 26% swing. Is this the first sign of recovery — or a false dawn?

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Sex v Sport: Senate counting inches closer to a result

The picture in the Australian Senate is becoming a little clearer, with more seemingly insignificant candidates are excluded from the count.

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Reforming the Senate: which model would work best?

The calls for reform in electing senators have grown louder after the weekend result. But what’s the best model to fix it? Crikey’s poll-cruncher examines the options.

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Lazy voters + broken system = sport, motoring lobbies in Senate

Almost a quarter of Australians voted for small parties in the Senate this time around, and the bizarre flow of preferences has elected very strange micro-parties. Here’s the state of play.

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Poll Bludger: what role the minor parties could play tomorrow

Plenty of people have dismissed the Palmer United Party as a rich man’s ego trip, but its potential for disruption shouldn’t be underestimated.

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Senate guide: Tasmania takes a step to the Right

Given the Senate’s logic of providing equal representation to each state regardless of population, Tasmania is the state whose voters have the greatest bearing on its make-up, the ratio of senators to population being about 1:43,000, compared with roughly 1: 600,000 in New South Wales. Its effect over the past two election has been to […]

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Poll Bludger: watch for WikiLeaks-led leakage in the Senate

Group voting tickets for the Senate have been published, revealing some odd bedfellows when it comes to preferences. The deals could swing the upper house to the Right under a Tony Abbott government.

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BludgerTrack: the post-sugar hit crash for Labor

It’s clear that the evenly matched polling that followed the return of Kevin Rudd, which was starting to look alarmingly sticky from a Coalition perspective, has unpeeled over the past fortnight. Close observation suggests this has not entirely been a phenomenon of the election campaign, as the Coalition had already pulled ahead over the weekend […]

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Poll Bludger’s election guide: the seats that will decide the election

Labor still faces its Everest to win enough seats to hold government. Crikey’s elections guru crunches the numbers for both sides to reveal the key seats required for victory.

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: Lib marginals Dunkley, Macquarie

Another double header in our ongoing scramble to cover potential Coalition-held seats of interest … Dunkley (Liberal 1.1%) Dunkley covers an area of bayside Melbourne about 40 kilometres from the city centre and has been effectively unchanged by redistribution. It consists of two distinct electoral parts, with Labor-leaning Frankston and its northern coastal neighbour Seaford […]

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Poll Bludger’s poll-of-polls: Greens tick up, Labor probability test

Four new poll results have been added for the BludgerTrack aggregate this week, with Newspoll handing Labor a relatively weak result and ReachTEL, Essential Research and Morgan recording little change. The force of Newspoll has pulled the two-party preferred total 0.4% in the direction of the Coalition, which nets it a handy three seats on […]

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Poll Bludger’s seats of the week: Queensland’s swinging Forde and Herbert

Seat of the week #1: Forde Straddling the southern edge of Brisbane, Forde was one of a number of Queensland seats that fell Labor’s way under Kevin Rudd’s leadership at the 2007 election, only to be lost again in the wake of his demise three years later. The electorate contains the eastern part of the […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: Longman’s boy Roy

Longman is centred on Caboolture and Burpengary in Brisbane’s outer north, from which it extends eastwards to Bribie Island and the mainland coast immediately opposite and westwards to the semi-rural townships of Woodford and D’Aguilar. The seat was created at the 1996 election from territory that had mostly been in Fisher, which thereafter assumed a […]

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Poll Bludger’s poll of polls: Rudd’s return has hurt Greens

Three weeks after I hit reset on BludgerTrack’s “poll of polls”, the results remain sensitive to weekly variation as the overall pool of data is still very shallow (11 polls in all). This week we have had Nielsen’s monthly result, the poll which appeared last week from newcomers AMR Research and the usual weekly Essential […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: Dobell, Thomson’s to lose

Held by troubled Labor-turned-independent MP Craig Thomson, Dobell covers the urban areas around Tuggerah Lake just beyond the northern coastal reaches of Sydney, including the coastal retirement haven of The Entrance, lower-income Wyong on the interior side, the tourist area from Bateau Bay south through Wamberal to Terrigal, the demographically unremarkable northern Gosford suburbs of […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: K-Rudd’s own Griffith

Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith covers inner-city Brisbane immediately south of the Brisbane River, from South Brisbane east to Bulimba and Queensport, south to Annerley and south-west to Carina Heights. Highly marginal historically, Griffith changed hands between Liberal and Labor in 1949, 1954, 1958, 1961, 1966, 1977, 1996 and 1998. Don Cameron won the seat […]

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Poll Bludger: don’t believe polls — everyone still hates Labor

Expect highly volatile polling results in the next few weeks, but when things calm down, Rudd’s numbers will probably not be as good as they currently are.

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: mandarin heartland Canberra

The electorate of Canberra covers the southern half of the national capital together with the bulk of the Australian Capital Territory’s thinly populated remainder, with northern Canberra accommodated by the seat of Fraser. The two ACT electorates presently have enrolment of around 130,000 voters each, compared with a national average of around 96,000. The electorate […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: Mark Dreyfus’ Isaacs

Isaacs covers south-eastern bayside Melbourne from Mordialloc south to Carrum, from which it extends inland as far as Western Port Highway to encompass Keysborough in the north and Carrum Downs in the south. The bayside suburbs are naturally marginal and shifted decisively to the Liberals at the state election in November 2010, whereas the centres […]

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