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Articles by William Bowe

Sorry, AEC truthers, electoral conspiracy theories don’t hold water

So, why do the provide pencils instead of pens at voting booths, huh? What exactly are they hiding?

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Pyne’s sleepless nights ahead of 2016 election as Xenophon soars

Tony Abbott’s Coalition is losing footing in former Liberal strongholds. And the party’s stocks in South Australia just keep on sliding, posing serious problems for one colourful frontbencher.

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Poll Bludger: is Lambie the old adventures of new Pauline?

Jacqui Lambie wants to form her own political party. But will she be able to reach the heights of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation?

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A thorough drubbing or a remarkable swing for NSW Labor? Depends who you ask

Mike Baird has held onto power, but the real winners might actually be the Greens.

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Poll Bludger: Sydney Liberal holdouts could quash Labor’s dreams

While Labor will win back many seats lost in their 2011 landslide defeat, Premier Mike Baird’s Liberal Party will almost certainly retain government.

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Poll Bludger: ‘Mr Nice Guy’ Mike Baird propping up popularity of embattled PM

NSW Liberal Premier Mike Baird is seen by many as a down-to-earth everyman to the extent that, instead of Tony Abbott’s image dragging Baird down, Baird’s popularity is lifting Tony up.

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NSW voters hate Baird’s signature policy — but they hate Labor more

Mike Baird is in a bit of a pickle in NSW, with voters wanting to vote for him but not the privatisation of electricity infrastructure. It will take some tricky electoral wheeling and dealing to deliver voters a policy they hate.

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Poll Bludger: no time like the present to test electoral reforms

Are voter ID requirements the thin end of a conservative wedge? What should be the cap on political donations? The Poll Bludger investigates.

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Poll Bludger: Foley gains traction, but can he pull Labor over the line?

While it’s unlikely Luke Foley will lead Labor to victory in the NSW election on March 28, he will recover many of the seats the party lost after its devastating defeat in 2011.

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Poll Bludger: odds shorten on a Liberal win in NSW election

A bevy of independents and maverick candidates has the made the NSW March 28 election a much closer race.

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Poll Bludger: NSW Nationals under threat as Labor gets serious on CSG

NSW Labor might be able to drive the Coalition from the state’s north-east — if it plays its hand right.

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Poll Bludger: Luke could luck out, but NSW likely to grin and Baird it

Labor’s recent surprise victory in Queensland was due, in large part, to the optional preferential voting system. NSW has the same system, but whether Opposition Leader Luke Foley can match Palaszczuk’s feat remains to be seen.

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Poll Bludger: dead-cat bounce for Tony, with Malcolm lurking in the wings

Voters factor in a range of complex information when they answer hypothetical polling questions, and the recent boost in support for the Coalition is obviously good news for the party, but it isn’t necessarily good news for the PM.

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Poll Bludger: Labor takes the reins of a minority govt in Qld

Despite ominous warnings from the LNP of the “chaos” that could be caused by overzealous crossbenchers, Labor has formed minority government fair and square. And the Queensland Parliament in no stranger to minority governments.

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Poll Bludger: a demoralised Springborg clings to false hope

The Queensland LNP’s new leader Lawrence Springborg hopes to prevent Annastacia Palaszczuk from forming government by triggering a byelection in the Labor-won seat of Ferny Grove.

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Poll Bludger: Gillard went down with polls this bad — now it’s Abbott’s turn

Abbott danced to the drumbeat of ruinous polls for Julia Gillard. Now that he’s polling worse, it’s time to face the music.

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Poll Bludger: meanwhile, in Queensland …

Remember Queensland? The biggest political story in Australia for one news cycle, before Adam Giles got rolled and then unrolled, and Tony Abbott started fighting for his political life? Turns out nothing is yet resolved in the Sunshine State.

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Poll Bludger: why everyone (including me) failed to see Labor’s Qld win coming

The polls were unanimous: the LNP was going to retain government in Queensland. How did we all miss the great Labor comeback?

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Poll Bludger: Labor’s Queensland win came from a surprising corner

The LNP has had its collective arse handed to it, surprising just about everyone. What was the factor psephologists overlooked?

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Poll Bludger: perhaps Newman should have ditched Ashgrove (before it ditches him)

Campbell Newman is polling badly in his seat of Ashgrove — it might have been wiser to depart the seat for a safer LNP one to ensure a stable transition to the new government.

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Poll Bludger: LNP will keep Queensland, but Newman’s a goner

As if things weren’t already looking bad enough for Campbell Newman in Queensland’s upcoming state election, the numbers now indicate voters could elect as many as 10 crossbenchers.

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Poll Bludger: parties play the odds with Qld how-to-vote cards

Both major parties, and some of the minor parties too, are manipulating the optional preferential voting system to secure seats.

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Poll Bludger: will Newman pull a Kennett on Saturday?

Remember when the Queensland LNP campaign was unrelentingly positive? That phase appears to be over …

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Poll Bludger: LNP will hold on, but will Newman?

Labor is likely to do very well in the upcoming Queensland election, but probably not well enough to win government. But the real question is: will Queensland Premier Campbell Newman lose his own seat?

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Poll Bludger: Newman’s relentlessly cheerful charm offensive

Labor and the LNP agree on one thing in their election campaigning: it’s all about Campbell Newman.

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