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Articles by William Bowe

Poll Bludger’s poll-of-polls: Greens tick up, Labor probability test

Four new poll results have been added for the BludgerTrack aggregate this week, with Newspoll handing Labor a relatively weak result and ReachTEL, Essential Research and Morgan recording little change. The force of Newspoll has pulled the two-party preferred total 0.4% in the direction of the Coalition, which nets it a handy three seats on […]

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Poll Bludger’s seats of the week: Queensland’s swinging Forde and Herbert

Seat of the week #1: Forde Straddling the southern edge of Brisbane, Forde was one of a number of Queensland seats that fell Labor’s way under Kevin Rudd’s leadership at the 2007 election, only to be lost again in the wake of his demise three years later. The electorate contains the eastern part of the […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: Longman’s boy Roy

Longman is centred on Caboolture and Burpengary in Brisbane’s outer north, from which it extends eastwards to Bribie Island and the mainland coast immediately opposite and westwards to the semi-rural townships of Woodford and D’Aguilar. The seat was created at the 1996 election from territory that had mostly been in Fisher, which thereafter assumed a […]

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Poll Bludger’s poll of polls: Rudd’s return has hurt Greens

Three weeks after I hit reset on BludgerTrack’s “poll of polls”, the results remain sensitive to weekly variation as the overall pool of data is still very shallow (11 polls in all). This week we have had Nielsen’s monthly result, the poll which appeared last week from newcomers AMR Research and the usual weekly Essential […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: Dobell, Thomson’s to lose

Held by troubled Labor-turned-independent MP Craig Thomson, Dobell covers the urban areas around Tuggerah Lake just beyond the northern coastal reaches of Sydney, including the coastal retirement haven of The Entrance, lower-income Wyong on the interior side, the tourist area from Bateau Bay south through Wamberal to Terrigal, the demographically unremarkable northern Gosford suburbs of […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: K-Rudd’s own Griffith

Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith covers inner-city Brisbane immediately south of the Brisbane River, from South Brisbane east to Bulimba and Queensport, south to Annerley and south-west to Carina Heights. Highly marginal historically, Griffith changed hands between Liberal and Labor in 1949, 1954, 1958, 1961, 1966, 1977, 1996 and 1998. Don Cameron won the seat […]

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Poll Bludger: don’t believe polls — everyone still hates Labor

Expect highly volatile polling results in the next few weeks, but when things calm down, Rudd’s numbers will probably not be as good as they currently are.

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: mandarin heartland Canberra

The electorate of Canberra covers the southern half of the national capital together with the bulk of the Australian Capital Territory’s thinly populated remainder, with northern Canberra accommodated by the seat of Fraser. The two ACT electorates presently have enrolment of around 130,000 voters each, compared with a national average of around 96,000. The electorate […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: Mark Dreyfus’ Isaacs

Isaacs covers south-eastern bayside Melbourne from Mordialloc south to Carrum, from which it extends inland as far as Western Port Highway to encompass Keysborough in the north and Carrum Downs in the south. The bayside suburbs are naturally marginal and shifted decisively to the Liberals at the state election in November 2010, whereas the centres […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: can Wilkie hold Denison?

Covering the greater part of Hobart, Denison produced one of the most significant results of the 2010 election, sending one of five cross-bench members to the first hung parliament since World War II. Andrew Wilkie achieved his win with just 21.2% of the primary vote, giving him a crucial lead over the Greens who polled […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: diverse Fowler

Fowler covers an area of Labor’s western Sydney heartland from Lansvale, Liverpool and Cabramatta in the east, through Hinchinbrook and Cecil Hills to undeveloped territory beyond the Westlink. The electorate has the second-highest number of non-English speakers of any electorate in the country, ranking in the top 10 for people of Chinese, Vietnamese, Serbian and […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: Liberal heartland Aston

The outer eastern Melbourne electorate of Aston was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 and held by Labor in the early years of its existence, since which time it has steadily strengthened for the Liberals. It covers the Liberal-leaning suburbs of Wantirna in the north and Rowville in the south, along with naturally […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: Labor acquisition Wakefield

Extending from outer northern Adelaide into rural territory beyond, Wakefield has existed in name since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, but its complexion changed dramatically when its southern neighbour Bonython was abolished when the state’s representation was cut from 12 seats to 11 at the 2004 election. Previously a conservative rural […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: New England, Windsor country

New England was created at federation and has changed remarkably little since, at all times accommodating Armidale and Tamworth and losing Glen Innes only between 1934 and 1949. Currently the electorate sits inland of the north coast seats of Richmond, Cowper and Lyne, extending southwards from the local government areas of Tenterfield and Inverell on […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: ultra-marginal Hasluck

The eastern Perth seat of Hasluck has changed hands at all three elections since its creation as Western Australia’s 15th seat at the 2001 election. Labor has outperformed the state swing in Hasluck at each election, but has twice been denied by the force of the state-wide tide to the Coalition. The electorate consists of […]

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Crikey‘s BludgerTrack poll-of-polls: Labor trending up

The biggest head-turner to emerge from the latest batch of polls was Labor’s sub-30% primary vote in Nielsen, but the BludgerTrack poll aggregate in fact records a slight improvement this week for Labor, which appears to be trending back to equilibrium after last month’s leadership crisis. As well as Nielsen, the aggregate has been updated […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: Bob’s Barton a horse race

Barton has covered Kogarah and surrounding areas on the north shore of the Georges River since its creation in 1922, currently extending north through Rockdale to Earlwood and Kingsgrove. Past members for Barton include Herbert “Doc” Evatt, who won the seat from the United Australia Party in 1940 and held it until 1958, when he […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: crumbling Labor heartland McMahon

Known until the 2010 election as Prospect, the western Sydney electorate of McMahon covers two distinct suburban areas separated by Prospect Reservoir and semi-rural areas immediately to the west. There is a wide variability in ethnic diversity among the electorate’s suburbs, with English speakers accounting for over three-quarters of the population in St Clair and […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: changing Richmond

Richmond has covered the north-eastern corner of New South Wales since federation, shrinking steadily over time due to ongoing coastal development (which among other things has cost it the river that gives it its name). It currently extends from Tweed Heads on the border as far south as Lennox Head just to the north of […]

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: Franklin might be a Labor worry

As one of Tasmania’s constitutionally mandated five House of Representatives seats, Franklin has a lower than normal enrolment (72,500 compared with a national average of about 96,000) and has existed without interruption since the state was first divided into electorates in 1903. With Denison accommodating central Hobart and the suburbs on the western bank of […]

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Hold the funeral for WA Labor, it’s not so bad after all

Yes, WA Labor lost. But the party didn’t lose big, and it’s very difficult to dislodge a first-term government. The result will not be the end of WA Labor, and Mark McGowan will be in a stronger position next time around.

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: vulnerable Greenway

The western Sydney electorate of Greenway delivered the government a crucial win at the 2010 election, prompting much soul-searching from a Liberal Party, which had been tardy in preselecting candidates in this and other key New South Wales seats. Greenway now stands as Labor’s most vulnerable seat ahead of an anticipated tidal wave in suburban […]

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WA poll: Barnett restarts the cycle with a thumping win

Colin Barnett’s Liberal government in Western Australia won a decisive majority in the state poll on Saturday, marginalising the Nationals and giving federal Labor headaches.

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WA election: Barnett will win, and by more than a sniff

WA Labor leader Mark McGowan is personally popular, but that won’t be enough to get his party over the line in tomorrow’s state election. But is a vote for Barnett a vote for Troy Buswell?

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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: Labor heartland Capricornia

The central Queensland electorate of Capricornia has existed since Federation, with Rockhampton as its constant as boundaries shifted over the years. It currently has Rockhampton at its southern coastal end, from which it extends northwards to the southern outskirts of Mackay and westwards through farming and coal mining communities as far as Belyando, 250 kilometres […]

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