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Articles by William Bowe

Poll Bludger: no time like the present to test electoral reforms

Are voter ID requirements the thin end of a conservative wedge? What should be the cap on political donations? The Poll Bludger investigates.

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Poll Bludger: Foley gains traction, but can he pull Labor over the line?

While it’s unlikely Luke Foley will lead Labor to victory in the NSW election on March 28, he will recover many of the seats the party lost after its devastating defeat in 2011.

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Poll Bludger: odds shorten on a Liberal win in NSW election

A bevy of independents and maverick candidates has the made the NSW March 28 election a much closer race.

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Poll Bludger: NSW Nationals under threat as Labor gets serious on CSG

NSW Labor might be able to drive the Coalition from the state’s north-east — if it plays its hand right.

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Poll Bludger: Luke could luck out, but NSW likely to grin and Baird it

Labor’s recent surprise victory in Queensland was due, in large part, to the optional preferential voting system. NSW has the same system, but whether Opposition Leader Luke Foley can match Palaszczuk’s feat remains to be seen.

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Poll Bludger: dead-cat bounce for Tony, with Malcolm lurking in the wings

Voters factor in a range of complex information when they answer hypothetical polling questions, and the recent boost in support for the Coalition is obviously good news for the party, but it isn’t necessarily good news for the PM.

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Poll Bludger: Labor takes the reins of a minority govt in Qld

Despite ominous warnings from the LNP of the “chaos” that could be caused by overzealous crossbenchers, Labor has formed minority government fair and square. And the Queensland Parliament in no stranger to minority governments.

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Poll Bludger: a demoralised Springborg clings to false hope

The Queensland LNP’s new leader Lawrence Springborg hopes to prevent Annastacia Palaszczuk from forming government by triggering a byelection in the Labor-won seat of Ferny Grove.

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Poll Bludger: Gillard went down with polls this bad — now it’s Abbott’s turn

Abbott danced to the drumbeat of ruinous polls for Julia Gillard. Now that he’s polling worse, it’s time to face the music.

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Poll Bludger: meanwhile, in Queensland …

Remember Queensland? The biggest political story in Australia for one news cycle, before Adam Giles got rolled and then unrolled, and Tony Abbott started fighting for his political life? Turns out nothing is yet resolved in the Sunshine State.

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Poll Bludger: why everyone (including me) failed to see Labor’s Qld win coming

The polls were unanimous: the LNP was going to retain government in Queensland. How did we all miss the great Labor comeback?

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Poll Bludger: Labor’s Queensland win came from a surprising corner

The LNP has had its collective arse handed to it, surprising just about everyone. What was the factor psephologists overlooked?

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Poll Bludger: perhaps Newman should have ditched Ashgrove (before it ditches him)

Campbell Newman is polling badly in his seat of Ashgrove — it might have been wiser to depart the seat for a safer LNP one to ensure a stable transition to the new government.

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Poll Bludger: LNP will keep Queensland, but Newman’s a goner

As if things weren’t already looking bad enough for Campbell Newman in Queensland’s upcoming state election, the numbers now indicate voters could elect as many as 10 crossbenchers.

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Poll Bludger: parties play the odds with Qld how-to-vote cards

Both major parties, and some of the minor parties too, are manipulating the optional preferential voting system to secure seats.

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Poll Bludger: will Newman pull a Kennett on Saturday?

Remember when the Queensland LNP campaign was unrelentingly positive? That phase appears to be over …

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Poll Bludger: LNP will hold on, but will Newman?

Labor is likely to do very well in the upcoming Queensland election, but probably not well enough to win government. But the real question is: will Queensland Premier Campbell Newman lose his own seat?

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Poll Bludger: Newman’s relentlessly cheerful charm offensive

Labor and the LNP agree on one thing in their election campaigning: it’s all about Campbell Newman.

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Poll Bludger: the mad mish-mash of Qld’s minor parties

Disaffected voters in regional Queensland will be spoiled for choice this election with a rabid PUP, resurgent One Nation and an increasingly worried Katter.

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Poll Bludger: Campbell’s gamble paid off — but it might not last until election day

Campbell Newman’s decision to call an early election looks like it’s paid off — but pollsters are right to be treating his rise in popularity with suspicion.

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Poll Bludger: Coalition’s Qld slump worse than any other state

Voter distinction between federal and state politics is becoming ever-more blurred as the unpopularity of the Abbott government taints state leaders.

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Poll Bludger: restless sleeps for Abbott as double dissolution threat looms

With two upcoming state elections putting conservative governments under pressure, Abbott’s plummeting popularity within the Liberal Party could cut his New Year’s celebrations painfully short.

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Poll Bludger: it ain’t over yet for Abbott

Previous governments have recovered from polls as bad as Abbott’s.

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Poll Bludger: what happens when the ‘wrong’ candidate wins

A complicated loophole in vote-counting legislation has awarded a seat to Labor that should have gone to the Country Alliance in Victoria.

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Poll Bludger: Andrews faces a daunting challenge in Vic upper house

With the excitement of an election win behind him, incoming Victorian premier Daniel Andrews must get to work on managing the makeup of his parliament.

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