Under normal circumstances, the only point at issue in the upcoming Queensland election would be the precise scale of the impending conservative landslide.
Articles by William Bowe 
About William Bowe
William Bowe is a PhD student with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.
Essential: we don’t like carbon tax any more now it’s passed
Opinion of the carbon tax has been little affected either by the government’s political success in negotiating it through the House of Representatives nor by the perceived unseemliness of the triumphalism that followed.
State-by-state damage to Brand Labor
Despite the best efforts of a tax forum and media tail-chasing about the Labor leadership, this has been an unusually sedate week in federal politics.
Katter’s party to shake up Queensland poll
In the eyes of some, the emergence of Bob Katter’s Australian Party has the potential to shake up what had loomed as a predictable Queensland state election, due around March.
Essential: amid the economic gloom, Labor gets a primary boost
The latest weekly Essential Research survey offers more evidence of gloom about the economy, with 58% expecting conditions in Australia to worsen over the next 12 months. However, the pessimism is not quite as bad as first appears
Essential: Gillard a model of stability, Greens gain ground
For all the convulsions it has faced on the political front, in one respect the Gillard government has presented a model of stability in recent months: its opinion poll ratings, as measured by the weekly Essential Research report, have been set in stone since the middle of June.
Poll Bludger: Rann an indulgence Labor could no longer afford
The spectacle of Australia’s longest-serving Premier announcing his retirement after a tap on the shoulder from a little-known union official has excited much comparison with Labor’s recent leadership shenanigans federally and in New South Wales
Pollsters lower their colours: carbon taxing credulity
Two pollsters have lowered their colours in recent days with poorly framed questions on the carbon tax.
Green wins Balmain and joins an exclusive club
The last remaining uncertainty about the composition of the New South Wales Legislative Assembly was resolved with a full preference distribution delivering Balmain to the Greens.
Poll Bludger: NSW election minus 16 days
Poll Bludger looks at the slow-motion train wreck that is the NSW state election campaign.
Poll Bludger NSW election snapshot: to speak Illawarra
Polls point to an Illawarra-wide swing against Labor of 21% from a margin of error of about 2.2%.
NSW election: free money to be made from the bookies
The bookies are offering $1.03 on a Coalition win. If you have a lazy ten grand lying around, think of it as $300 of free money.
Bowe: for Victorian Labor, it was a case of ‘on ya cycle’
Depending on your perspective, the big swing against Labor in Victoria on Saturday was either highly portentous or highly predictable.
Poll Bludger: Galaxy poll encourages Coalition, bookies say otherwise
Labor goes into tomorrow’s Victorian election as a barely backable favourite, with offerings on a Coalition win ranging from $4.25 from Sportsbet to $4.65 from Flemington Sportsbet.
Poll Bludger: Greens’ VIC hopes in tatters
The Greens’ grand hopes of winning as many as four or even five seats in the lower house are now in tatters, and their chances of securing the coveted balance of power greatly diminished, says Poll Bludger’s William Bowe.
Inner-city Greens (make me wanna holler)
The Victorian election is living up to its billing as the latest battlefield in new paradigm politics, with the Liberals finding themselves shunted from the front pages by a stoush between Labor and the Greens.
Poll Bludger: the moral majority and how it pans out
Very little actually changed in yesterday’s counting, which saw a continuation of the slow decline in the Labor total that is the usual pattern of late counting.
Poll bludger: minority government and the rise of the greens
Minority government was a frequent occurrence in the first half of the twentieth century, and has undergone a renaissance as the major parties’ share of the vote has declined in the past two decades.
Poll Bludger: five seats still in doubt
There are five seats still in doubt as far as I’m concerned, though it’s not unknown for outsiders to emerge on the radar late in the count.
Poll Bludger: Newspoll shows WA remains Labor’s weak link
How has state-level polling tracked through the campaign week-by-week, based on an aggregate of Newspoll and Nielsen results.
Minor parties wheel and deal for Senate ticket preferences
Three significant political milestones have occurred this week. First, the ballot paper draws and publication of full candidate lists; second, the publication of group ticket votes for above-the-line votes in the Senate; and last but not least, the launch of Crikey’s electorate form guide.
Poll Bludger’s election 2010 preview: Brisbane, the young and the restless
Poll Bludger’s tour of the Australian electoral map today takes us to south-east Queensland, where new polling shows Labor is in some strife.
Poll bludger: Penrith by-election proves Keneally’s not enough
It is possible that, buried in some such dark and dusty place, there might be found details of a by-election defeat as bad for a major political party as the one suffered by New South Wales Labor in Penrith on Saturday.
