Fowler covers an area of Labor’s western Sydney heartland from Lansvale, Liverpool and Cabramatta in the east, through Hinchinbrook and Cecil Hills to undeveloped territory beyond the Westlink. The electorate has the second-highest number of non-English speakers of any electorate in the country, ranking in the top 10 for people of Chinese, Vietnamese, Serbian and […]
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Poll Bludger’s seat of the week: Liberal heartland Aston
The outer eastern Melbourne electorate of Aston was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 and held by Labor in the early years of its existence, since which time it has steadily strengthened for the Liberals. It covers the Liberal-leaning suburbs of Wantirna in the north and Rowville in the south, along with naturally […]
READ MOREPoll Bludger’s seat of the week: Labor acquisition Wakefield
Extending from outer northern Adelaide into rural territory beyond, Wakefield has existed in name since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, but its complexion changed dramatically when its southern neighbour Bonython was abolished when the state’s representation was cut from 12 seats to 11 at the 2004 election. Previously a conservative rural […]
READ MOREPoll Bludger’s seat of the week: New England, Windsor country
New England was created at federation and has changed remarkably little since, at all times accommodating Armidale and Tamworth and losing Glen Innes only between 1934 and 1949. Currently the electorate sits inland of the north coast seats of Richmond, Cowper and Lyne, extending southwards from the local government areas of Tenterfield and Inverell on […]
READ MOREPoll Bludger’s seat of the week: ultra-marginal Hasluck
The eastern Perth seat of Hasluck has changed hands at all three elections since its creation as Western Australia’s 15th seat at the 2001 election. Labor has outperformed the state swing in Hasluck at each election, but has twice been denied by the force of the state-wide tide to the Coalition. The electorate consists of […]
READ MORECrikey‘s BludgerTrack poll-of-polls: Labor trending up
The biggest head-turner to emerge from the latest batch of polls was Labor’s sub-30% primary vote in Nielsen, but the BludgerTrack poll aggregate in fact records a slight improvement this week for Labor, which appears to be trending back to equilibrium after last month’s leadership crisis. As well as Nielsen, the aggregate has been updated […]
READ MOREPoll Bludger’s seat of the week: Bob’s Barton a horse race
Barton has covered Kogarah and surrounding areas on the north shore of the Georges River since its creation in 1922, currently extending north through Rockdale to Earlwood and Kingsgrove. Past members for Barton include Herbert “Doc” Evatt, who won the seat from the United Australia Party in 1940 and held it until 1958, when he […]
READ MOREPoll Bludger’s seat of the week: crumbling Labor heartland McMahon
Known until the 2010 election as Prospect, the western Sydney electorate of McMahon covers two distinct suburban areas separated by Prospect Reservoir and semi-rural areas immediately to the west. There is a wide variability in ethnic diversity among the electorate’s suburbs, with English speakers accounting for over three-quarters of the population in St Clair and […]
READ MOREPoll Bludger’s seat of the week: changing Richmond
Richmond has covered the north-eastern corner of New South Wales since federation, shrinking steadily over time due to ongoing coastal development (which among other things has cost it the river that gives it its name). It currently extends from Tweed Heads on the border as far south as Lennox Head just to the north of […]
READ MOREPoll Bludger’s seat of the week: Franklin might be a Labor worry
As one of Tasmania’s constitutionally mandated five House of Representatives seats, Franklin has a lower than normal enrolment (72,500 compared with a national average of about 96,000) and has existed without interruption since the state was first divided into electorates in 1903. With Denison accommodating central Hobart and the suburbs on the western bank of […]
READ MOREHold the funeral for WA Labor, it’s not so bad after all
Yes, WA Labor lost. But the party didn’t lose big, and it’s very difficult to dislodge a first-term government. The result will not be the end of WA Labor, and Mark McGowan will be in a stronger position next time around.
READ MOREPoll Bludger’s seat of the week: vulnerable Greenway
The western Sydney electorate of Greenway delivered the government a crucial win at the 2010 election, prompting much soul-searching from a Liberal Party, which had been tardy in preselecting candidates in this and other key New South Wales seats. Greenway now stands as Labor’s most vulnerable seat ahead of an anticipated tidal wave in suburban […]
READ MOREWA poll: Barnett restarts the cycle with a thumping win
Colin Barnett’s Liberal government in Western Australia won a decisive majority in the state poll on Saturday, marginalising the Nationals and giving federal Labor headaches.
READ MOREWA election: Barnett will win, and by more than a sniff
WA Labor leader Mark McGowan is personally popular, but that won’t be enough to get his party over the line in tomorrow’s state election. But is a vote for Barnett a vote for Troy Buswell?
READ MOREPoll Bludger’s seat of the week: Labor heartland Capricornia
The central Queensland electorate of Capricornia has existed since Federation, with Rockhampton as its constant as boundaries shifted over the years. It currently has Rockhampton at its southern coastal end, from which it extends northwards to the southern outskirts of Mackay and westwards through farming and coal mining communities as far as Belyando, 250 kilometres […]
READ MOREPoll Bludger: demographic clues from 2008 for WA poll
I’ve knocked together a linear regression model to fit the results of the 2008 Western Australian state election in the vague hope it might shed some insight on where Labor and Liberal overperformed and underperformed. I’ve limited this to metropolitan electorates, because the relationship between voting and the most potent explanatory variable — income — breaks down beyond the […]
READ MOREWA poll: McGowan’s done well, but Gillard doesn’t help
With the baseball bats out, Mark McGowan faces a hammering at the Western Australian election. The Opposition Leader has done a good job, but federal Labor’s woes will ensure defeat.
READ MORESenate race: polling shows challenge to Greens power
Even on current polling Labor could retain some control of the Senate with the help of the Greens in the balance of power position, exclusive new polling from Essential Research reveals.
READ MOREWA election: counting preferences in upper house races
Upper house preference tickets for the Western Australian state election were lodged yesterday. Labor announced on Sunday it will direct preferences to the Liberals ahead of the Nationals in Warren-Blackwood, Central Wheatbelt, Eyre, North West Central, Geraldton and Kimberley. What impact will it have? Labor voters’ compliance with how-to-vote cards ranges from the mid-20s to the […]
READ MOREPoll Bludger’s seat of the week: ALP stronghold Bendigo
Created at federation, the electorate of Bendigo currently extends from the city itself south to Castlemaine and the Macedon Ranges around Woodend, also taking in smaller rural centres to the west and north. The redistribution to take effect at the next election has added the Macedon Ranges area from McEwen in the electorate’s south-east, and […]
READ MOREPoll Bludger’s seat of the week: Labor-held Makin
The north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin extends from Pooraka near the city to Tea Tree Gully and Greenwith at the limits of the metropolitan area. Labor is especially strong in the areas nearer the city, from Walkley Heights north to Salibsury East, beyond which are generally newer suburbs with more mortgage payers and families, who […]
READ MOREPoll Bludger’s WA election guide: Labor’s odds are too long
Two significant milestones have been reached on the path to Western Australia’s March 9 state election, the first to be held under the new regime of fixed terms. The first was the issue of the writs by the Governor on Wednesday, which regardless of what anyone else might tell you marks the formal commencement of […]
READ MOREPoll Bludger’s seat of the week: Labor stronghold of Werriwa
Famously held by Gough Whitlam throughout a parliamentary career lasting from 1952 to 1978, the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa has been in Labor hands since 1931. However, it is now considered endangered for the first time in living memory after the margin was cut from 15.1% to 6.8% in 2010, followed by the devastating […]
READ MORELabor’s rocky road: what Gillard has to do to hold on
That we’re going to an election in September was no surprise. But the date doesn’t make Julia Gillard’s road to retaining government any easier. Crikey’s poll cruncher looks at what she has to do to hold on.
READ MOREPoll Bludger’s WA election guide: Barnett landslide likely
Newspoll’s long awaited October-December result of state voting intention in Western Australia shows Colin Barnett’s government on track for a landslide win at the election to be held on March 9. The Liberal-National lead on two-party preferred is 58-42, up a point on an already surprisingly robust lead for July-September, from primary votes of 43% […]
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