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Articles by William Bowe

Poll Bludger: WA Liberals prep for election 18 months early

Colin Barnett is clearly not the electoral asset he once was, and he faces a fresher and seemingly very popular opponent in Labor leader Mark McGowan.

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Poll Bludger: meet Christine Milne’s replacement

Nick McKim has held a seat for the outer Hobart division of Franklin in the state’s lower house since 2002. But who is he, exactly?

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Poll Bludger: should Labo(u)r act with its head or its heart?

Labor is losing votes to the Greens with its boat turnback policy. But isn’t it better to lose the left, whose preferences will flow back to Labor anyway, than to the Liberals?

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Poll Bludger: should firies be able to spruik for Labor in their hi-vis?

Rather than addressing genuine electoral reform, the government wants to make sure polling places are kept free of trade unionists agitating for the competition.

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Poll Bludger: with Randall’s death, a real electoral test for Abbott

Don Randall held the seat of Canning by 11.8% — but Labor could still manage a victory.

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Poll Bludger: is Abbott crazy enough to call a double dissolution?

A double dissolution election would probably bring in more micro-party senators, which would be a headache for the government. But it might be worth it for the damage it would do to the Greens.

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Poll Bludger: LNP wants preselection reform to oust rogue candidates

Maverick candidates have caused a lot of headaches for the LNP over the years, both in the states and federally. Now Queensland’s state branch wants to do something about it.

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Poll Bludger: are the Greens really polling at 16%?

Why does Ipsos have the Greens polling at 16% while Essential puts them at 10%?

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Poll Bludger: can Abbott close polling gap before the election?

Tony Abbott has his work cut out for him trying to chase lost ground in Queensland, South Australia and Victoria.

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Poll Bludger: why do polls sometimes get it so wrong?

Are polls actually any good at all at predicting election results?

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Poll Bludger: when will Abbott call the next election?

You would typically be putting red circles around the last three Saturdays in October, but there’s a particular problem for Abbott with going to the polls that early.

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Poll Bludger: should federal govts serve fixed four-year terms?

Fixed terms will inevitably weaken the position of the Senate, officially making it a partisan rubber-stamp body for the lower house.

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Poll Bludger: is there something deeper going on in NT gerrymander?

The problem of electoral boundaries, and its potential solution.

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Poll Bludger: Abbott versus wind farms and the RET

If Abbott wants to wedge Labor, attacking the environment might be the safest option.

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Poll Bludger: voters warm to Abbott — except not really

Voter perception of Abbott has generally improved since the failed spill motion earlier this year. But that’s not say that voters actually like Abbott, per se …

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Poll Bludger: should preselection be done by the rank and file?

Both parties are talking about allowing the rank and file to have their say, rather than stater powerbrokers. Is this the way forward?

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Poll Bludger: why Baird hit pay dirt, and Newman hit plain dirt

A new report sheds light on the tale of two very different elections. One, a Coalition triumph. The other … not so much.

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Poll Bludger: how the pink vote changes politics

Lesbian couples appear to drive significant increases in the Labor and Greens vote, but gay men are not uniformly left-wing.

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Honeymoon’s over for Qld Labor as polls return startlingly different results

Are the voters of Queensland happy with the new Queensland government? It’s very hard to say.

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Poll Bludger: about that post-budget poll bounce …

We should not rush to put too much stock in a single poll that shows the Prime Minister is on the way up.

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Poll Bludger: are we headed for a double dissolution?

Tony Abbott is still insisting the election will be held next year. But does his most recent budget say otherwise?

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Poll Bludger: UK sticks with same old Tory, a good sign for Abbott

The UK Conservatives’ unexpected win has left pollsters scrambling for answers, and left fellow conservative Tony Abbott with a renewed sense of confidence.

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Poll Bludger: desperate, Shorten actually announces a real policy

Bill Shorten’s approval ratings have remained very constant, with 40% approval and 40% disapproval. That can mean either a polarising leader or an excruciatingly dull one. No points for guessing which in this case.

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Poll Bludger: Newspoll’s star winks out, leaving a lonely Galaxy

So much for the “gold standard” of Australian polling — Newspoll will be wound up as an organisation and will exist only as a brand in The Australian.

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Poll Bludger: not easy being Green, but party’s over for Democrats

The Democrats’ status as protest party made it hostage to political circumstances and victim to potent competitors.

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