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Articles by William Bowe

Poll Bludger: perhaps Newman should have ditched Ashgrove (before it ditches him)

Campbell Newman is polling badly in his seat of Ashgrove — it might have been wiser to depart the seat for a safer LNP one to ensure a stable transition to the new government.

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Poll Bludger: LNP will keep Queensland, but Newman’s a goner

As if things weren’t already looking bad enough for Campbell Newman in Queensland’s upcoming state election, the numbers now indicate voters could elect as many as 10 crossbenchers.

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Poll Bludger: parties play the odds with Qld how-to-vote cards

Both major parties, and some of the minor parties too, are manipulating the optional preferential voting system to secure seats.

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Poll Bludger: will Newman pull a Kennett on Saturday?

Remember when the Queensland LNP campaign was unrelentingly positive? That phase appears to be over …

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Poll Bludger: LNP will hold on, but will Newman?

Labor is likely to do very well in the upcoming Queensland election, but probably not well enough to win government. But the real question is: will Queensland Premier Campbell Newman lose his own seat?

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Poll Bludger: Newman’s relentlessly cheerful charm offensive

Labor and the LNP agree on one thing in their election campaigning: it’s all about Campbell Newman.

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Poll Bludger: the mad mish-mash of Qld’s minor parties

Disaffected voters in regional Queensland will be spoiled for choice this election with a rabid PUP, resurgent One Nation and an increasingly worried Katter.

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Poll Bludger: Campbell’s gamble paid off — but it might not last until election day

Campbell Newman’s decision to call an early election looks like it’s paid off — but pollsters are right to be treating his rise in popularity with suspicion.

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Poll Bludger: Coalition’s Qld slump worse than any other state

Voter distinction between federal and state politics is becoming ever-more blurred as the unpopularity of the Abbott government taints state leaders.

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Poll Bludger: restless sleeps for Abbott as double dissolution threat looms

With two upcoming state elections putting conservative governments under pressure, Abbott’s plummeting popularity within the Liberal Party could cut his New Year’s celebrations painfully short.

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Poll Bludger: it ain’t over yet for Abbott

Previous governments have recovered from polls as bad as Abbott’s.

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Poll Bludger: what happens when the ‘wrong’ candidate wins

A complicated loophole in vote-counting legislation has awarded a seat to Labor that should have gone to the Country Alliance in Victoria.

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Poll Bludger: Andrews faces a daunting challenge in Vic upper house

With the excitement of an election win behind him, incoming Victorian premier Daniel Andrews must get to work on managing the makeup of his parliament.

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Poll Bludger: could the Greens be coming for Turnbull?

The Greens’ electoral success in Prahran was due to a number of demographic factors, with the seat an interesting mixture of hip young things and old money. Sounds like a certain federal Sydney seat we know …

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Poll Bludger: SA byelection a canary in the electoral coal mine for fed Coalition

Labor’s surprise victory in a byelection for the South Australian state seat of Fisher at the weekend can be largely attributed to the plummeting stocks of the Abbott government.

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Poll Bludger: fed govt gaffes could hurt Libs’ chances in SA byelection

The death of independent MP Bob Such has triggered a byelection in the South Australian seat of Fisher. It looked like an easy Liberal win, but things aren’t so certain now.

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Poll Bludger: have we reached a Greens zenith?

The Greens have finally won a Victorian lower house seat, but their primary vote has not increased since last election. Is the minor party on its way up, or is this all the support it will be able to manage?

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Poll Bludger: shape of Vic’s new Parliament far from clear

While we know enough to say it’s curtains for Napthine’s Liberals, the precise make-up of Victoria’s new government won’t be known until the last ballot is tallied.

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Poll Bludger: the top five Victorian bellwether seats

Victoria heads to the polls on Saturday, and things look pretty grim for the Liberal party, as they try desperately to hold on to some of these battleground seats.

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Poll Bludger: Vic Libs heading for the rocks as independents snipe

The result of Saturday’s Victorian election is all but known for the Liberals — they are likely to be thrown out. But some independents are throwing a spanner in the works for Labor.

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Poll Bludger: is Victoria in for a new crop of Lambies and Muirs?

Micro-parties could well be in for some seats in Victoria’s upper house, with the Shooters and Fishers and the Country Alliance contenders to get over the line.

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Poll Bludger: Obama-Xi deal spoilt Abbott’s hoped-for G20 bounce

The Abbott government’s woeful polling numbers might not rebound in any significant way for quite some time.

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Poll Bludger: why Greens win federally, but struggle in Vic

The Greens are polling well in the lead up to the Victorian state election, but the party has always struggled to turn strong polling into lower house seats.

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Poll Bludger: panicked pollies scramble for seats as electoral lines shift

The AEC’s decision to cut the number of House of Representative seats has started an uneasy game of musical chairs.

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Poll Bludger: Aussie public takes Left turn as US voters polarise

American voters have been pulling steadily away from the centre over the past ten years, but Australia has moved solidly Left.

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