The Electoral Matrix

An alternative guide to understanding elections is what’s called an electoral matrix – a diagram that shows the seats in columns by safeness and rows that list the party holding each seat.

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In 2007, thirty-three selected electorates will be crucial to the outcome of the poll. Most of these are crucial because they are marginal electorates – seats held by one of the major parties that would require only a small number of votes to fall to the other. Some of the seats have been changed by a redrawing of the electorate boundaries. In others, long-term MPs are retiring, meaning voters may be more likely change their vote and support someone from a different party.

The seats have been divided up in two ways. The first is political – by classifying the seats as either:

1. Safe seats – seats that require a swing of more than 10 per cent to change hands;
2. Fairly safe seats – seats that require a swing of between 6 per cent and 10 per cent; and
3. Marginal seats – seats that would fall with a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Each seat has also been also designated with one of five geographical descriptions:

1. Inner city seats – seats located at the heart of one of the five mainland state capitals, typically affluent, well educated, outward looking and cosmopolitan in nature;
2. Suburban seats – seats consisting predominantly of well-established suburbs in one of Australia’s main urban districts;
3. Outer suburban seats – seats consisting mostly of newer and higher-growth suburbs in one of the main urban centres, often referred to as the ‘mortgage belt’, which may still incorporate a significant semi-rural element;
4. Semi-urban/provincial seats – seats consisting of territory either dominated by a single large city outside the main urban districts, or closely connected to one of those districts, often extending partly into the outer suburbs; and

Rural seats – seats located outside the commuter belt of the state capitals and not dominated by large urban populations, although a significant proportion of their population may still live in cities or large towns.

See Also: The Electoral Pendulum