Australia has 76 Senators, 12 from each of the states and two each from the ACT and the Northern Territory. At the last election the Coalition won a majority in the Senate, the first time a government had achieved this since 1977. The 72 Senators from the states have fixed six-year terms, while the four from the Territories have terms that coincide with the House of Representatives – a maximum of three years. This means a regular ‘half-Senate’ election, as this year’s will be, actually elects slightly more than half the Senate – half the Senators from the states (36) and all four Territory Senators. How things stand currently To see how this affects control of the Senate, we need first to look at the Senators who are not up for re-election – the 36 senators from the states who were elected in 2004, whose terms run until 30 June 2011. They break down as follows: Liberals 17 Nationals 2 Family First 1 Labor 14 Greens 2
This means that the Government parties are starting from a base of 19 seats. To retain a majority, they need to win only half of the seats up for election this time – 20 plus 19 would give them 39 votes in a Senate of 76. Could the Coalition lose control of the Senate? If the Coalition’s opponents want to end its control of the Senate, then they need to win more than half the seats in at least one state or territory. Is this possible? The Senate was expanded to twelve Senators per state in 1984. That year’s election was a transitional one to increase the numbers, and the following 1987 election was a double dissolution, where every Senate spot was up for grabs. 1990 was the first regular election for six senators in each state. Out of the 36 contests since then (six elections in six states), all but four have returned an even three-three split between the parties of the left (Labor, the Democrats, the Greens and the Nuclear Disarmament Party) and the right (the Liberals, the Nationals, Family First, One Nation and former independent Brian Harradine). The four exceptions are NSW in 1990 and 1998, Victoria in 2004, and Queensland also in 2004. The first three upsets were due to preferences straying from one side to the other. In the first, two small right-wing tickets (Grey Power and the CEC) directed their preferences to Labor rather than the third candidate on the Coalition ticket, which enabled the left to win four spots – three Labor and a Democrat – by the tiniest of margins. In the second, also in NSW, One Nation candidate David Oldfield had preferences directed away from him by the Coalition, again electing three Labor Senators and a Democrat. The third case, Victoria in 2004, went the other way. Preferences from Labor and the Democrats went to Family First ahead of the Greens. Steve Fielding was elected, in addition to three Coalition senators, even though the combined left easily had enough votes for three positions. Only the last case, Queensland in 2004, is a genuine instance of one side – in this case the right – having enough votes to elect four senators: three Liberals and one National, against just two from the ALP. How the states have voted in previous Senate elections
Here are the aggregate votes in each state for the last two half-Senate elections on a state-by-state basis. (The totals do not add to 100 per cent because in each case it’s impossible to classify a few small parties and independents) Year - State - Left vs. Right 2004 New South Wales - 47.6% vs. 51.0% Victoria - 48.9% vs. 49.9% Queensland - 41.1% vs. 58.4% Western Australia - 43.6% vs. 55.9% South Australia - 46.0% vs. 53.4% Tasmania 49.8% vs. 49.3% 2001 New South Wales 47.7% vs. 50.6% Victoria 54.6% vs. 45.0% Queensland 43.0% vs. 55.2% Western Australia 48.1% vs. 50.9% South Australia 49.3% vs. 50.1% Tasmania 55.9% vs. 43.4% The major political groupings need to win four-sevenths, or about 57 per cent, of the vote in order to win a fourth seat in a state at a half Senate election. If you look at the figures, you’ll see that the right was close in 2004 in Western Australia and in 2001 in Queensland, while the left almost made it across the line in 2001 in both Victoria and Tasmania. Senate possibilities
The most likely way to end Coalition control of the Senate would be for four left Senators – almost certainly three Labor and one Green – to get elected in Victoria or Tasmania. If it happened in both states, the Coalition would drop to 37 seats and therefore lose the ability to block legislation. A significant swing would be needed, but the Tasmanian vote will be particularly interesting. The Greens leader, Bob Brown, is up for re-election. Andrew Wilkie, the former intelligence officer who stood for the Greens against John Howard in his seat of Bennelong in 2004, is the number two on the ticket. This will significantly boost the party’s profile. Two other possibilities could cost the Coalition Senate control. Votes from the right might see just two Coalition and one Family First Senator elected in a state, instead of three from the Coalition. That would give Family First a total of two Senators and give them the balance of power, but it would require a huge increase in their primary vote to get ahead of a third Coalition candidate even in the state where they poll strongest, South Australia. The other possibility is that the left could pick up an extra territory seat. The Northern Territory is not in doubt – the Country Liberal Party and Labor will get one each – but the Greens are hopeful that they can beat Liberal Gary Humphries in the ACT. This would require an improbable swing of about seven per cent, but the Democrats almost managed the task in 1998. All three possible gains – Victoria, Tasmania and the ACT – would have to come good for Labor and the Greens to have control of the Senate between them. |