Election analysts like to talk about the median seat – the seat that will be held by whoever forms government, assuming the swing is uniform. Looking at the election pendulum, a swing up to and including the median seat is the bare minimum necessary for government to change hands. In this election there is some debate as to which is the median seat. The possibility of a hung parliament makes it unclear just how many seats Labor needs to win to form government. Deadlock or Unstable Minority
The two most likely numbers are 14 and 15. A gain of 14 seats would put Labor level with the Coalition, 74 votes all in the 150 member House, with two independent MPs (since Peter Andren is not recontesting Calare). That would be a blow to the government, but not a clear victory for Labor. The two independents, Queenslander Bob Katter and the Member for New England, Tony Windsor, are both generally conservative and may be reluctant to support a Labor government. There could be a deadlock in the House, or an unstable minority government. A Labor Win?
A gain of 15 seats, however, would put a Labor win beyond doubt. Labor would have as many seats as the combined total of Coalition and independents, so making one of the independents Speaker would give it a majority on the floor. Regardless of their inclinations, there would be nothing the independents could do to give the Coalition a majority. Contenders for the median seat
Both contenders for the title of median seat are in NSW: the 14th seat on the pendulum for Labor is Eden-Monaro, and the 15th seat is Bennelong. Historically, Eden-Monaro is the more critical. Since 1972 Eden-Monaro has always been won by the party that formed government. The NSW seat of Macarthur and the Tasmanian electorate of Denison have played similar roles in the past, but Denison is now a safe Labor seat and redistributions have put Macarthur well into the Liberal camp. Eden-Monaro remains the key seat to watch in this year’s election. Bennelong is bound to get more attention as John Howard’s electorate, but Eden-Monaro is more likely to actually decide who wins government at the 2007 election. |