Mayne: Arbib blazes the trail, now it’s Swan’s turn
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Watching Mark Arbib’s resignation press conference yesterday, it seemed pretty clear that he was absolutely genuine about his desire to spend more time with his family and help heal the wounds from Labor’s appallingly messy 18-month assassination job on Kevin Rudd.
Given that his wife, former Michael Costa chief-of-staff Kelli Field, is making plenty as an associate director at Macquarie Bank, Arbib can probably afford to take some time out.
Then again, if Arbib wants to cash in like his predecessor Karl Bitar, he’d better be quick because the most likely scenario is that in 18 months, South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill will be the highest ranking Labor politician on government benches across the country.
Arbib, a former Sizzler dishwasher and TWU organiser with a masters in politics, confounded journalists and politicians across the board yesterday and it has been hard to find anyone who agrees with his analysis about reconciliation.
Given that Arbib was the national convener of the ALP Right in the federal Parliament and the person who Julia Gillard spoke to before deciding to break her agreement not to challenge Rudd on the evening of June 23, 2010, of course he is a hugely controversial source of anger and resentment.
While it was Paul Howes who copped the grief for going on Lateline to explain the coup, the ambush execution of Rudd simply would never have happened if Arbib had not given the green light.
Similarly, there is no way Rudd would have knocked off Kim Beazley in 2006 if Arbib had not broken away from the anti-Rudd forces associated with Wayne Swan and the AWU in Queensland.
Given that Arbib and Gillard are the two individuals who were most associated with the making and breaking of Kevin Rudd, Arbib’s logic makes plenty of sense if genuine reconciliation is to be achieved.
Bizarrely, not a single major Labor figure has agreed with the prognosis of the master strategist, probably because most of them are self-interested in wanting to avoid their own sacrificial gestures.
For instance, Gillard is over-reaching by insisting she retain exclusive power to hand-pick her cabinet. Surely the biggest lesson of Rudd’s time at The Lodge was that caucus should have never ceded this power.
Gillard botched her last cabinet reshuffle and she should not be able to arrogantly dismiss calls to avoid revenge, as she did on AM today. Given Gillard’s failure to offer this gesture against PMO dominance of cabinet, caucus should insist there be no revenge.
Shaun Carney was absolutely right in the Fairfax broadsheets today when he identified Treasurer Wayne Swan as being “a poor communicator, to the government’s enduring cost”.
Swan’s most effective piece of communicating was his ridiculous statement last Thursday night savaging Kevin Rudd. Unlike people such as Craig Emerson, Stephen Conroy, Simon Crean and Tony Burke, this was not something that just happened during the cut and thrust of a live television or radio interview.
No, Swan carefully considered every poisonous written word — including that Rudd has “no Labor values” — and then hit the button.
Over time, Gillard will have to come clean on whether she personally vetted and authorised this statement before it was sent out by her loyal and stodgy deputy.
Now that Rudd has committed to contesting the next election and, effectively, the next leadership ballot after Gillard resigns, the best thing Swan could do is negotiate a suicide pact with his old Nambour High schoolmate.
First, Swan should voluntarily exit the Treasury portfolio and allow a decent communicator — Chris Bowen or Bill Shorten — to be Treasurer.
Secondly, he should attempt to negotiate an agreement with Rudd that they both exit Parliament at the next election. If not, federal Labor’s Queensland stocks will be poisoned by their hatred into the future. Every preselection will swing on whether candidates are loyal to Swan or Rudd.
Swan might lose his seat in 2013 anyway, especially after his crazy commitment to a 2012-13 surplus — foolishly repeated again by Gillard on AM this morning — inevitably blows up in the government’s face.
After more than four years as Treasurer, Swan has been the weakest feature of the Rudd and Gillard governments.
He’s now also the leading light in the most self-indulgent political assassination in Australian history. It’s time for Swan to listen carefully to Mark Arbib’s advice and resign as Treasurer, for the good of the party and the government
Swan voluntarily give up the Treasurer spot? I cant see it happening.
And other than his poor communication skills, he seems to handle the job okay… doesn’t he? (World’s best Treasurer and all that).
His venom for Rudd was a bit of a shock of course. He came across as a much more nasty piece of work than I ever thought.
In fact, it seems like quite a nasty little band controlling the party at the moment. It seemed to me that all the decent voices that were heard over the past few days, were all Rudd supporters. (I am not saying that all Rudd supporters were decent and played the game honourably - I am just saying that the ones who did play the game honourably, seemed to be in the Rudd camp).
Maybe I am forgetting some of the things said…..
I like the idea of Chris Bowen asTreasurer.
As for Mark Arbib’s resignation: mission accomplished?
Pot calls kettle black: SCOOP.
Allegedly, Mark Arbib’s scalp was the price that some demanded for voting for the PM. If so, fair ‘nuff, but he wasn’t the only Rat in the Ranks at the time. Some there are still playing the Long Game on which this entire imbroglio was predicated.
Me, I’ve done with Labor: Roxon, Crean, Swan, Ellis and Garrett just aren’t fit to govern a chook raffle. They have poor ministerial manners and are vulgar in their transparent self-interest. Terms like ‘sociopath’ and ‘psychopath’ are offensive, and I note that not one of these spiteful loudmouths has any qualification which would support such lurid remarks. Swan’s spleen and bile, of course, was quite shocking and beyond the Pale.
It matters little to me whether Gillard or Rudd is leader. Neither of them lead/s a government which was/is a Labor government’s bootlace. Thus, given the precedent set by Caligula, I’m plumping for Black Caviar as our next PM. She’d win easily, too, given her popularity, her track record and the truly depressing array of alternatives.
More power to the Greens I reckon.
The Gillard camp might get legislation through and work a minority govt successfully - better than anyone thought they would… but they are constantly shooting themselves in the feet, legs, stomach… even aiming it seems for their own heart! The dominant group are so set on holding onto power within the party, (and maybe using it well for the next year or so) but their long term focus is blurred. And they are … just not… nice people…
mind you … Mr Abbott and his mob… UGGHHHH! Not a nice option either!
so.. like I said
More power to the Greens.
Now that we have read Mr Maynes fairy tale, I await his contribution.
Swan is the Treasurer who has presided over pink batts the NBN the BER, RSPT, MRRT, Rudd ‘s ETS, the subsequent Gillard backflip on a carbon tax, massive political porkbarrelling to buy votes and an inability to answer even basic economic questions off his own bat. In addition he played Brutus in Rudd’s execution by Gillard and the factions.
He was a member of Rudd’s kitchen cabinet and was happy to sit there like “Noddy” gently nodding affirmatively at everything Rudd said, and now he is saying the complete opposite. He is such a an ignoramus that he doesn’t understand the appalling contradictions in his behaviour. How such a political maggot has survived as long as this is totally beyond me.
JamesK @1.59 - No I don’t think you’ve forgotten anything, the Ruddites were very moderate in the face of swinging attacks. The only thing I can’t work out is just what the left thought they’d get out of supporting Rudd. Must have been a promise to protect the post election opposition at the expense of the shorten right.
I don’t think there’s much doubt about the caliber of the Gillard camp but things have been very bad for a long time and some of the venom has been stored up since Beazer’s days. I’d pay money to see Swan off himself though.
As for them shooting them selves - the black knight comes to mind.
On a personal note, given the frothing madness that passes for much of the right comments on Crikey, I’ve……….well………………missed you……………
The Gillard government gave a soft account for the numbers to go against Rudd in 2010 and it wasn,t very credible . Rudd the journos and various media outlets kept up the challenge drums and it came to truth or exaggerated truth being revealed about PM Rudd , not pretty .
How long has it been since considered comments have graced the Australian political landscape and why did it get this bad ? Heffernan and his deliberately barren comment which neglected Bishop in the assessment . Keating perhaps and his cutting but more often accurate descriptions of events and people . More recently the bizarre comments of people like Mirabella , Bernardi or the painful to hear and ludicrous comments from prissy Pyne . Abbott getting up on a platform with a ditch the bitch placard as a backdrop pretty well say all that needs to be said about standards . My opinion for what little its worth is Howard not only giving a nod and a wink to Hanson but taking over her agenda as giving the moderate standard the bums rush . Refugees became potential terrorists who used publicly exposed leaky boats rather than covert entry by plane . Once you go low enough to falsely accuse parents of any race of trying to drown their children then its open slather for anything else to seem reasonable . Mirabella even accused fellow libs of being terrorists for wanting better treatment of refugees . After that is the recent abusive comments of Labor , excessive , lower or above her standards ?
On Radio National breakfast on 28 February at 8:58 am James Carleton’s reading of the papers included a claim that Arbib’s resignation was Rudd’s price for going quietly. His source was the facebook page of Alex Mitchell, a freelance journalist. However, I haven’t been able to find Mitchell’s facebook page.
If that is true that as Barbara said: mission accomplished.
no recession during the GFC, world’s greatest Treasurer, 5.1% unemployment the lowest in the western world, distributing the mining profits to lower company tax and increase super, lowering taxes and increasing pensions from 1 July. Now Hockey on his feet in Parliament demanding his removal. Of course he should go!
But funinteg you put this so much better than Swan. This is the problem which Mayne, Keane and others are pointing out. How can the Treasurer and a professional politician promote his case so poorly that a Crikey poster does it better? Unless, of course, you are Swanny honing his skills before he unleashes the real Wayne!
Swan’s invective against Rudd has been his moment of purest clarity and communication.
Swan was hopeless at selling the excellent RSPT: taking money from the pudgy hands of pound-heavy billionaires, there’s a highly attractive and popular idea (one would think). But neither Swan (nor Rudd) could convince the electorate.
In fact, I can’t recall anything Wayne Swan has ever said apart from the puerile vow to deliver a surplus. This is where Gillard is also weak ie: she vows to do things then reneges… or can’t deliver.
The old motto of Under-Promise and Over-Deliver is too deep for either of these two.
At last someone who knows something about how the factions in the ALP really work.
The faction convenors are powerful men - as far as I am aware they are all men.
It is a peculiar way to give expression to different points of view within a political party
but I think it is cheaper/cleaner/less vitriolic than the Primaries that US presidential candidates have to contest just to become their party’s nomination for the top job.
I remember Malcolm Fraser saying once that his ambition was to keep politics off the front page of the Melbourne Sun. Something he and John Howard achieved by being crushingly boring. And having a bag of marshmallows for followers.
If there is one thing I can say in favour of the ALP, it is that its intra-mural shenanigans are more interesting than its extra-mural political activity.
The commentariat should be grateful that the ALP gives them so much to comment on otherwise most of them would be exposed as no more knowledgeable about Australian politics than their last leak….
Crikey is an honourable exception.
You can have a strong economy and a Treasurer who knows it’s not his job to file stories for a bloated, lazy, inane Canberra press gallery dominated by simpletons who wouldn’t know a balance sheet if it came out of an unnamed source’s arse.
Or you could have a, you know, like great communicator, who can’t add up to save his life but, wow, ain’t he great at giving interviews! Maybe you want a new Treasurer who can explain in 140 characters why the economy just went down the toilet.
FFS, Gen Y hasn’t taken over the country yet.
Well said, SOF!
Yes, whenever you see Wayne Swan you know you’re in the presence of insignificance. He’s either nervously seeking approval, eyes darting left and right, or barking slogans, sacrificing gravitas for rapid repetition.
Sure, communication is important- Gillard’s banal speeches, the metronomic movements of a Pavlovian chook pressing a feedbar, the tone-deaf rasping delivery…but it’s facile ( and very Crikey/Mayne) to imagine that the moral and ideological vacuum that is the ALP can be filled by better “communication”. Any more than Gunns is good for the environment (as Mayne fatuously wrote recently, after being comprehensively communicated by Gunns corporate shills for a mere two hours)
Bill Shorten, the Minister for Advantageous Marriage, is smooth, unctuous and ingratiating. But he’s just another factional union suit off the conveyor belt. Shorten was unknown until he set a national record for milking the media- 14 consecutive days at the Tasmanian mine cave-in…Obituary: “Sir William Shorten, Lion of Beaconsfield. Held a mountain pass for two weeks singlehanded against a horde of marauding journalists.”
Chris Bowen? Sure, polite and reasonable in tone, but another Philistine Queenslander (he loathes Bill Henson, remember? As does Rudd). Bowen is a long way from any top job, given his stumbling performance in Immigration.
How about Greg Combet, the Minister for Angst? I know he looks like a tense Magpie with those big staring eyes fixed on you , all deadly serious, but you’d look that way too if you were a coal mining engineer representing a coal seat and had to sell a carbon tax…
There’s the rub- it’s not “communication”- it’s the insanely contradictory key policies that the Gillard Govt. has to retail to a disbelieving public: there’s a fossil fuel bonanza (Julia: “coal has a fantastic future”) but we have to “transition” to a “clean, green new economy”. No matter that “renewable energy” technology is nowhere near ready to replace fossil fuels- and is very expensive to boot. Gloss over the fact that the rest of world is doing essentially nothing about global warming. Don’t mention that climate change was absurdly over-hyped by short-term predictions which failed. Or that the fear of Armageddon has waned steadily since 2006. Distract the voter from the hilarious carousel of the carbon tax- all the money goes to the “polluters” (“free permits”), damaged citizenry and those “renewable energy” rorts. It’s business as usual, but pumped through a vast convoluted desal plant which no one needs.
Until the ALP faces up to these Pythonesque contradictions it has no future.
Everything they touch will turn to Abbot.
Zut, how was Swan right though? He is a vicious snake. Rudd’s only non labor values appear to have been wanting to help the Palestinian children being tortured by Israel, allowing the Palestinians to be in UNESCO and not wanting to flog refugees to Malaysia.
And defending Julian Assange against her ridiculous claim that the was a criminal.
Swan’s viscious diatribe against Rudd were classic Swan. He was focused only on influencing Monday’s leadership spill to maximise support for Gillard. Whether or not it was true did not come into consideration, making it absolutely typical of the man.
I have never ever heard Swann say anything that sounded genuine. It has only ever been spin.
Marilyn, I didn’t mean to suggest that Swan was right about Rudd. But I was making the point that it’s the one time Swan has managed to successfully convey a message.
I still reckon a trial under the official secrets act would be an interesting exercise for arbib…
What Swan (and ten others) did was a ludicrous overreaction, and Gillard was perfectly happy for them to all pile into the gutter.
If that was what the Cabinet rilly and trooly thought, then the Rudd threat was minimal, and it just makes her look venal and totally self interested.
I couldn’t adide her before all this, but now I’m almost ready to vote for Abbott.
Heck, come back John Howard, all is forgiven. Our little Digger warmonger is looking like a class act alongside Gillard.
The departing Labor member for Fowler, Julia Irwin, revealed the deep influence of the Zionist lobby on the ALP and the inner workings of her party towards the Middle East in an exclusive interview with Crikey, 10/8/10. Well worth reading and frightening.
Rudd sealed his own fate when he expelled the Israeli ambassador over the use of Australian passports by Mossad to assassinate an enemy of them.
That is the real truth of these matters
Is it too much to ask for justification of how Gillared botched her last reshuffle, or is it just taken as given because that’s the received version created by the collective “wisdom” of the press gallery.?
Last time I looked, Plibersek, Roxon and Shorten - among the more obvious promotees - seemed to be going OK.
Whistleblower in comments lists Swan’s “failures”, pink batts, the NBN, BER, RSPT MRRT etc. Virtually all are issues where that judgement is either contentious or premature, but again, dissenting from the MSM version that this is a litany of SNAFUs and Labor disasters seems heretical.
It all looks (to this partisan) like another set-up, a situation which Gillard can’t win. The Daily Terrorgraph to-day, 7.30 to-night, S. Mayne here, and BK earlier on Crikey have already determined that this ministerial reshuffle will be another “failure”. It’s hard to imagine what configuration of the Cabinet and Ministry would satisfy the demands of all these “wise” observers. Yet another reason why Labor is doomed apparently.
As a queenslander, I have watched Wayne Swan’s rise to the top with disbelief.
He has never been anything more than a party hack and numbers man. His communication ability has always been limited to parroting the standard party line and taking swipes at the opposition.
Never have I seen him show any true vision and while Swan successfully helped us avoid a recession during the GFC, they probably could have saved a lazy 10 or 20 billion if he had more respect for our tax dollars.
Peter Fuller and SOF - +1 and +1
PETER FULLER
The whistleblower list had me confused as well . By what measure is a take up of one million for insulation to be considered as good or bad ? How many accidents caused by drivers or mechanics does it take to consider the sale of cars to be a failure ? 97% approval rating for BER I would consider a good thing without the rush to get people working on it and the stimulus imperative side of the construction being taken into account .
If the government says the sun will rise tomorrow the opposition say it probably wont and anyway it would more likely rise quicker and brighter if they were in government . The media rather than point out the obvious or dispute the blatantly false just take their snaps and repeat the quote .
Stephen your comment “South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill will be the highest ranking Labor politician on government benches across the country.”
NAH! you guys who think we have a Presidential system also forget the President of the Senate is at a higher level than a State Premier or earlier Liberal Mayor Newman of Brisbane.
Stephen do you wildly forecast Labor & the Greens will lose control of the Senate. If not expect the present President of the Senate, Labors John Hogg will be the top of the Labor formal peck order & ex Mayor Newman will be relegated nowhere in the Ashgrove Electorate in the Qld Elections very soon.
As a recovering economist I kinda like my Treasurers rather pedestrian and dull actually.
Treasurers tend to get a bit of an inflated idea of their position, see themselves as holding it all together, bringing home the bacon…
But they don’t - not personally. Anything serious is a Cabinet decision - not their’s alone.
That’s not to say that Treasurers can’t run the government or have a huge influence in setting its direction and the parameters for its operations - look at Keating for one. But not Costello. It is the influence and skills of the individual - not the position itself.
I get uneasy when I see Great Men making history. They tend to make it up . The meeja make it up for them with this “celebritisation” and personalisation of government.
Hubris - the cardinal sin of the old Greeks - and they knew a lot about economics and democracy your old Greeks.
Think about how decisions actually get made - about how much say Swan alone has in the big issues - but recognise that this government above - all is a team sport. There are no Great Helmsmen - and a good thing too.
As to Swan’s TV style, his haircut, his dress sense and his X factor - I will leave these for skilled observers in the Gallery to judge.
Interesting accountants are dangerous.
Peter Fuller, one example of “how Gillard botched her last reshuffle”, would be Mark Arbib. Whilst the media promotes the idea that Arbib fell on his sword for the good of the party, or for family reasons (take your pick), it also could be read that Kevin Rudd told (selected parts of) the ALP Caucus that if Arbib didn’t leave parliament altogether, he (Rudd) would leave and take the Gillard government down with him.
Arbib paid a big price but then he really did get a bit too big for his boots and Gillard’s promotion of him in the last reshuffle only made his fall from grace more inevitable.
The pedestrian Swan is not there for his thespian skills. He is there for the essential but mundane guiding and implementation of the the nations annual budget. I certainly would prefer Swan’s dull presentation but financial acumen to media players like Costello.
Keating was unique in his both his mastery of media skills and the budgeting processes. Most of our other treasurers we have experienced have had either of these qualities, not both. Unfortunately many have had better thespian skills than budgeting adroitness.
Hugh (Charlie) McColl, give you one thing, you have a very vivid bubbling imagination, guess it comes from reading too much of News Ltd and Mr Keane
Mike,
I reckon Swan (that is to say, the Government’s economic management) would be far more politically acceptable - not to say marketable - if he went for an auburn rinse with maybe a Russell Crowe 3 day growth look overall, perhaps a line of his own undies and a bit of a nip and tuck in the jowls. Maybe moving to a shirt style that showed off his pecs.
The RBA would have no trouble raising interest rates with our reborn and rebadged Brand Swannie… he’d be mobbed in malls and mansions alike.
Or am I being shallow and vacuous again? Tweet your comments and fashion advice to Kampaign Kardashian NOW!!!!
Hear hear, Peter Ormonde, agree completely.
As a recovering economist I kinda like my Treasurers rather pedestrian and dull actually.
Ok recovering economists: who were the best dull but worthy Australian treasurers? I invite you to nominate 1 from each party.
Wikipedia’s article titled ‘Treasurer of Australia’ lists them all from George Turner (1901-04) to the present, including Percy Spender (1940) and 6 Labor treasurers who lasted for 12 months or less.
Gavin,
I have some favourites … Red Ted Theodore and Keating actually. But neither of these are dull enough to really qualify. Probably the most capable and visionary. We will see Paul Keating’s thumbprints all over this economy for decades to some.
But it’s a team sport this Government business so the credit and the responsibility for the actual decisions - the hard yards - goes to their Cabinets and the Governments they served in. Taking hard decisions and selling them to the people on the merits and longer term benefits.
But as an advocate… as an interpreter of economic dynamics and complex interrelationships - Keating was both gifted and convincing. Unequalled. But sadly, not dull enough to qualify.
Ralph Willis on the other hand would have the wallpaper in a press conference tearing itself off the wall and quietly rolling out of the room…. leaving rows of overturned chairs. Talk about taking the economy off the front pages. Brilliant!
From the Tories, Billy Snedden … easily qualifies in the dull department - other than through the nature of his exit from public life. Ended up well. Didn’t know he had it in him. Who did? Should get a gong for tolerating McMahon. So should we all.
Maybe Phil Lynch - for being the first tyke to get a ministerial position in a conservative Australian government and for having all the personality of a bulldozer. The poor kid in the class. Unstoppable.
From the Nats/ Country party - hard that - they are usually kept well away from anything too complex. Artie Fadden had a handy knack of getting out of the way when necessary - like making way for Curtin in 1943 and demolishing the conservative vote down to 19 seats. Looked after the bush. Made sure we all did.
But to really make it onto the list - to triumph as a politically successful Treasurer - well no one remembers their names. Like what’s his name now… yeah him. Perfect.
Peter Ormonde, Fadden should get a special prize for convincing us that the Fadden Credit Squeeze was really the Menzies Credit Squeeze.
David, the ALP’s internal politics requires a lobotomy to account for. If miracle man was in some sort of quandary about his future, how the hell did Julia Gillard not know about it when she was pondering the reshuffle? Oh, that’s just a coincidence I suppose? Yeah right.