A city facing shutdown, the nation of Thailand in political stalemate

Bangkok, one of the world’s most cosmopolitan cities and Asia’s premier tourist mecca, is bracing for a planned “shutdown” of the city next Monday by a splinter opposition group that has run a series of protests garnering crowds of 150,000 people at times over the past two months.

The political temperature in this coolest of seasons in Thailand is now rising quickly as months of shadow boxing come to a head. The big questions for many weeks have been: will it blow up, and if so how?

The rabble-rousing group — the rather hubristically named People’s Democratic Reform Committee, led by former Democrat Party deputy Suthep Thaugsuban —  has promised to seize 20 key intersections in the capital, cut water and power supplies to key government buildings and bring traffic and logistics to a halt. Tourists, including thousands of the 1 million or so Australians who visit the country each year, are beginning to desert Bangkok during its peak  holiday season. Hotels, particularly at the higher end, are holding unseasonal discount wars, and taxi drivers — the hoary bellwether — are complaining about business. There is less bustle than usual in the vast shopping malls that dot the metropolis, although destinations outside the capital seem largely unaffected — so far.

The hatches are being battened down. The government has promised to deploy at least 15,000 police; 146 schools in 26 districts around the country are already slated to be closed; telecommunication providers are making contingency plans to minimise the risk of mobile and internet network congestion; and retailers are stocking up on goods — although the country’s faltering stock market will remain open for trading.

The PDRC, rather ironically, wants the democratically elected government (the voting margin is roughly 14 million to 11 million) replaced with a council of elders, for want of a better term. Yet they would not represent the poorer northern rural Thais who now effectively control Parliament, having voted in the winning party each time elections have been held since 1996. The protesters have already forced the government into calling an election on February 2, but this is not enough; neither the PDRC nor the main opposition Democratic Party will contest the poll, making certain that political unrest won’t stop there. All efforts by the government to holds talks about reform measures have been spurned so far.

During the protests the government and the military — traditionally on opposing political sides, but the lines have blurred in recent years — have so far shown uncommon restraint in a country that has had 19 coups d’etat since World War II (it has been eight years since the last). This reflects the opinion of most regular people in Thailand: they are sick of the cycle of violence, yet the polity appears to be no further down the track of having any concrete ideas as to how to stop it.

The army has gone to unusual lengths to make it clear that it desperately does want to step in — it learned a bitter lesson after the 2006 coup. But now the talk in Bangkok newspapers and buzzing social media is once again of military intervention.

The stalemate is, in effect, a battle for control between the established Bangkok-based elite and the upstart newer-monied cliques of billionaire former PM Thaksin Shinawatra …”

The stalemate is, in effect, a battle for control between the established Bangkok-based elite and the upstart newer-monied cliques of billionaire former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, a policeman-turned-telecoms mogul who has lived in exile since 2006 and has been committed to prison on corruption-related charges. From his base in Dubai, he still pulls strings of the governing Pheu Thai party, led by his relatively inexperienced sister, Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

Suthep Thaugsuban himself is a corrupt millionaire whose dodgy land reforms brought down the government of Chuan Leekpai in 1995, leading to Thaksin’s rise. He has recast himself, somewhat unconvincingly, as the poster child for “change”, leading popular marches rooted in the pan-Democrats southern support base demanding largely unarticulated “reform” of the Thai political system and, in particular, the banishment of the Shinawatra family. The trigger for him being able to do this was November’s ham-fisted amnesty bill the government attempted to force through Parliament, which would have absolved all those responsible for the bouts of violence in 2008 and 2010, paving the way for Thaksin’s return — an event many even in his own party now understand is a step too far.

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3 Responses

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  1. Thanx for this informative report and analysis. Shouldn’t it be: ‘The army has gone to unusual lengths to make it clear that it desperately does NOT want to step in, …’

    by Gavin Moodie on Jan 11, 2014 at 5:53 am

  2. A sad case of the “blind leading the blind” I’m afraid. This uprising has been self-styled as an “educated revolt”… educated in what I ask? Obviously not the principles of good governance. Beyond the protestations against the amnesty bill, this is simply a case of old corruption trying to oust new corruption. Power is the only goal and the general populace will continue to suffer because of it.

    by Lasso on Jan 11, 2014 at 7:31 pm

  3. Rather ironic’ is a fudge. Put bluntly, the yellow shirts want a dictatorship and the red shirts support parliamentary democracy.

    by Bernadette Fallon on Jan 12, 2014 at 2:11 pm

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