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Essential: Coalition voters suddenly discover a good economy

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Australians are inclined to expect their own economic circumstances to deteriorate under an Abbott government but Liberal voters are already shedding their gloomy view of the economy and starting to see the bright side, new polling from Essential Research finds

Asked about their expectations about an Abbott government, 37% believe unemployment will get worse compared to 27% who believe it will improve. And while 38% believe the economy will improve compared to 30% who think will deteriorate, 40% to 27% believe the cost of living will worsen, 31% to 17% believe interest rates will rise, 42% to 23% believe health services will deteriorate, 43% to 22% believe job security will deteriorate, and 41% to 25% believe education will deteriorate.

Some 15% believe company profits will be “a lot better” under an Abbott government and 20% believe workers’ rights and conditions will be “a lot worse”. Around 22-35% believe their own financial situation will be worse.

The results run counter to the efforts of the Coalition’s media boosters to portray consumers as delighted with a Coalition win and ready to open their wallets again.

However, 40% of voters now believe the economy is good compared to 25% who believe it’s poor, a change from July when the numbers were 36% to 30%. The difference in just a matter of weeks is because Coalition voters, who strongly thought the economy was bad in July (18% good; 45% bad) are now changing their view — all of a sudden 32% of Coalition voters think the economy is good compared to 35% who don’t, despite a deterioration in both the economic outlook and government finances prior to the calling of the election. The number of Labor voters who think the economy is good has also dropped from 59% in July to 50%.

Coalition voters are now much more optimistic about the direction of the economy: 68% believe it will improve, compared to 21% in January who thought the economy would get worse, while 59% of Labor voters now think it will get worse — a big change from January, when 50% of Labor voters thought the economy would improve.

In short, if further evidence were needed, we can confirm voters’ view of the economy is strongly influenced by whether their preferred political party is in office.

Essential’s online poll of 1000-plus voters found 38% of respondents thought the election of minor parties like Clive Palmer’s organisation to the Senate was good for democracy, compared to 25% who didn’t, with Coalition voters much more likely to think it wasn’t good for democracy. They also think it will result in worse government — 44% to 32% of Coalition voters think it will lead to worse government; other voters tend to disagree.

On voting intention, it’s 44% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 9% for the Greens: a two-party preferred vote of 53-47%.

*Essential Research is a part of Essential Media Communications. EM Advertising, a business wholly owned by EMC, is contracted by the ALP to provide advertising for the federal election campaign. Directors, staff and contractors working on the EM Advertising business have no involvement in the production of the Essential Report. Your Source manages Essential’s online research panel. Essential Research and Your Source are ISO accredited market research companies.

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Categories: Economy, Federal, Uncategorized

10 Responses

Comments page: 1 |
  1. Those numbers from the voters polled don’t even make any sense. Stupid people! They deserve all they get!!

    by CML on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:56 pm

  2. I’m thinking this is 1 poll the ABC will ignore. Bless them

    by cnewt27 on Sep 16, 2013 at 2:33 pm

  3. The lesson? Ignore economic reality, it’s all about perception.

    by zut alors on Sep 16, 2013 at 2:40 pm

  4. What the average doofus thinks about how the economy is going is equivalent to polling the average man in the street on recent developments in quantum physics.

    It’s pointless, other than for showing up inherent bias.

    Worse than that is when we hear or read about people who are either successful business executives, high corporate priests and priestesses and opinion leaders when it is clear that they have no idea about some pretty fundamental ideas about the economy.

    I’m thinking of Harold Mitchell’s columns in the smh each weekend. Mr Mitchell is the doyen of the advertising world, who unfortunately seems to know nothing about the economy.

    So what chance the average doofus?

    by Dogs breakfast on Sep 16, 2013 at 3:04 pm

  5. Blinded by hope - tripped by reality.

    by klewso on Sep 16, 2013 at 3:18 pm

  6. You might as well substitute “politics” for “the economy”, doofus.

    by Salamander on Sep 16, 2013 at 3:33 pm

  7. No wonder those LNP voters think they are on the up and up; back to shafting the worker in the name of “productivity”, hammering those lazy public servants (yet again), they’ll fix those pesky unions (can’t have someone looking after workers rights).
    Also, they won’t have to worry about that invconvenient climate change, just get rid of the department, turn up the air conditioner (saving money in getting rid of the carbon tax-but electricity prices not lowering due to company gouging) and stuff the environment in the name of the all mighty “economy”. It’s already happening..SMH today “CSG” and “coal seam gas” is being called “natural gas from coal seams” in government communication. George Orwell would be proud! Different name, same result…can;t wait to see the first landholder who can set fire to his ground water resource!

    by MJPC on Sep 17, 2013 at 7:46 am

  8. These polls are measuring intentions/feelings/confidence. They are, in fact, measuring nothing. Measures of confidence are a waste of time when we can measure real data.

    by Martin Marshman on Sep 17, 2013 at 12:17 pm

  9. You’re always confident when your dog comes in first.

    by klewso on Sep 17, 2013 at 6:25 pm

  10. When people lose confidence, they often become very selective about the data they choose to believe or publish.

    by Daveo11 on Sep 18, 2013 at 1:12 pm

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