Ruddversal: Labor goes from very bad to even worse
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Labor is now a bitterly-divided party with considerable talent sitting idle on the backbench and a huge defeat looming. The main question is will Tony Abbott win both houses of Parliament?
This just keeps getting worse for Labor. After yesterday’s shambolic spill-that-never was, the exodus to the backbench is now ripping some of the party’s best talent and experience out of cabinet. The resignation this morning of Chris Bowen, one of the government’s best talents, means Labor will take one of its strongest-ever backbenches to the election, with former leaders Kevin Rudd and Simon Crean, Bowen, younger figures like Richard Marles and Ed Husic and whichever other Rudd supporters are pushed or jump in the next few days.
Joel Fitzgibbon will also resign or be dumped as party whip, but that’s a case of good riddance from both sides.
Rather than use his gifts in an economic portfolio, Gillard gave Bowen the unenvied task of addressing the growth of asylum-seeker boat arrivals. He crafted an excellent policy response, the Malaysian Solution, the defeat of which by the High Court and asylum seeker advocates opened the doors to a surge in arrivals and, eventually, a return to the Pacific Solution so hated by Labor.
Bowen was also a long-term advocate of substantially increasing Australia’s humanitarian intake, a position vindicated by the Houston Panel and one he was finally able to implement. Typical of the demonisation of asylum seekers by the Coalition leadership, Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison are now committed to reversing Bowen’s expansion of the humanitarian visa category
This flow of talent to the backbench is not necessarily all bad for Labor — there will now be a substantial core of ministerially-experienced figures unconnected with the Gillard camp able to lead post-Gillard Labor, assuming they hang on to their seats in the landslide defeat the ALP is headed for. But the impression — correct impression — now is of a party bitterly divided and unable to get its act together.
“When journalists start pounding the leadership drum again, Kevin Rudd, notionally, is out of the contest … attention will turn to Stephen Smith or Bill Shorten.”
Labor could perform a miracle. Few expected Abbott, winner by one vote in a deeply-divided party, to be the enormous success he has been. Voters might get sick of the sight of a bunch of blokes — in Parliament and in the press gallery — trying to tear down the first female prime minister. But Labor isn’t in opposition where it can refine its message down to saying no to everything and promising to stop everything, and voters are more likely to regard the party as a rather shabby farce than admire yet another demonstration of the Prime Minister’s remarkable toughness.
But failing such a miracle, the leadership drumbeat will resume again in coming weeks. This stuff from both the Gillard and Rudd camps that the leadership issue is resolved is either naïveté or wilful deception. The media is too addicted to the subject to let it drop. Labor’s primary vote is too low for MPs to stop wondering what they should do.
And the government’s immediate priority is to craft a budget that will struggle to achieve a surplus and which is intended to carve out substantial savings to pay for NDIS and Gonski. It will be the exact reverse of a pre-election spendathon and is likely to generate hostile responses from those targeted for savings.
When journalists start pounding the leadership drum again, Kevin Rudd, a man unwilling to enter the fray when others were risking their necks for him, the man who went from Ruddmentum to Ruddversal, notionally, is out of the contest: all seem united in saying he will never be leader again, including Rudd himself. He issued this statement this morning:
Rudd has been dismissed before, though he may have his eyes fixed on September 15 and taking over the job he has done most successfully, leader of the opposition. More likely, with Simon “safe pair of hands” Crean in exile, attention will turn to Stephen Smith or Bill Shorten. And, most certainly, the steady drip of bad polls will continue.
Abbott must not be able to believe his luck. From not long after he became leader, this deeply flawed man has been able to sit back and watch his opponents at each other’s throats while his own party locked in behind him with remarkable discipline. It almost delivered him power in 2010. It will certainly do so in 2013, and may even hand him control of the Senate as well, enabling him to remove the carbon price, the mining tax, and every other achievement of the Gillard government, wiped from the statutes as though they never existed.
Well done, Labor.
Hi Bernard, I know it is hard to get this through to you but is there any chance you can pull yourself away from the light and start doing some serious journalism rather than puff piece speculation. Can’t wait for drmick to give you a serve. PS: I thought your twitterthon on the spill yesterday was gringeworthy.
This Crean moment of madness doesn’t change the basic calculus that Rudd is by streets the most electable politician in the country, and that the current Gillsrd senior cabinet is deeply and widely hated. Whining about the press or leaky Rudd backers for this situation doesn’t change reality.
The Labor caucus still has a couple of months to work it out.
Whining about the press? it is the press that won’t shut up about this. How about telling us readers about what we really want to know. What are our pollies trying to get done, success stories (there are some). And Rudd would not have won the election in September if he had stepped up. That is why he didn’t do it. He is waiting for Gillard to fall on her sword post election.
I guess the upside it that a term of first-hand experience with the crazies running the Coalition might do the electorate some good, and a good cleanout of Labor might do that party some good.
I guess the upside is that a term of first-hand experience with the crazies running the Coalition might do the electorate some good, and a good cleanout of Labor might do that party some good.
Ho hum.
Leaving aside the endless media naval gazing, I remain confused by two things:
1. Why do people put so much emphasis on Who The Leader Is? It’s a representative democracy - government is built on and depends on a group of people. This isn’t a dictatorship. I can only conclude it’s a juvenile hangover from childood.
2. Why is it a big deal to vote on the leadership? Every P&C, company board, political party branch, almost all organisations for that matter, have annual ballots for their leadership positions. Why should the parliamentary wing of political parties be any different.
It’s as though people actually yearn for some sort of benign dictatorship to shape their lives. Well rubbish to that.
If the leadership issue is now resolved, and everyone is locked in behind Julia, and there are no circumstances in which Rudd will ever return to the leadership in the future, then why bayonet those who backed the late scratching ? The only reasons can be punishment for disloyalty or to prevent future leaks and destabilisation amongst those with access to information.
By punishing the wounded, Julia is indicating that she doesn’t trust them. Maybe she’s right to do so, but it makes all the stuff about how its finally over sound like wishful thinking.
@MichaelL: probably, but he’d be a fool to allow himself to be made sacrificial goat for this election. Poetic justice would be Gillard winning over Abbott (picture the angst there) then Rudd announcing a spill, and winning it. And on the Noalition side, I’d imagine the knives would be out for Abbott, and Turnbull might make it. Perhaps he could shred their cretinous NBN policy whilst he’s at it.
So, could I recommend the Government strap on the skates and go for broke in the next six months? Nothing to lose and everything to win.
Angela Barra’s story of forced adoption beats this article hands down. Her description of Abbott’s performance is spot on, it was sickening. Just like his & Julia (wheres the script Tony) Bishop’s appalling speech in question time. No spontaneity or nuance.
it must be difficult to be a deeply perfect man B Keane
Before the spill that wasn’t the publiv pronouncements by the ALP was that there wasn’t challenge .
But a media so obsessed with the issue continued to run it until it became a self fulfilling prophesy.
Gillard gave an opportunity and was returned unopposed so any sane person would think that this was the end of the matter.
I mean a huge win followed by a 100% vwin how much more proof is needed
No. Still the gallery obsession continues
One would think that perhaps the media won’t comment on policy or performance as this would be to beneath them but much prefers the blood sport of leadership speculation.
One could even suspect that News Ltd knowing that a Gillard/Abbott comparison on policy would result in a clear win to Gillard means they can only focus on leadership beat ups
The gallery is hardly a good indicator of the electorate I mean look how well the understood the Mysognu speech.
It is a sad indictment on both parties that their greatest asset is the other side
It is an even sadder indictment on the Canberra Gallery that it is so transfixed by leadership issues that policy & actual performance are ignored
One more thing.
Despite the media’s obsession with leadership challenges I notice they seem to have a very poor record on accuracy.
Predict Gillard fall….Wrong both times
Didn’t predict Victorian change
Didn’t predict NT change
By my count that’s 0 fgor three and yet the Gallery claims Gillard has credibility issues?
Get real and get off the subject I’m sick of it
The state of the government is an absolute joke. Settle it once and for all, call for a vote of no confidence, expect the independents to get on board, and send us to the polls to finish it.
Mind you I don’t think the independents like there chances of getting re-elected either.
We have a government that has kept Australia with one of the most stable and healthy economies in the world, a media that has convinced the constituency to believe that Australia has an unstable government who has wrecked our economy and destroyed our quality of life.
Unemployment around 5%, inflation around 2%, low official interest rates, low GDP to debt ratio, triple A credit rating from the 3 world agencies
Italy Greece etc unemployment 20% +, GDP to debt ratio 100% plus. Even the USA has 9-10% unemployment and a debt ratio of 70%.
Yet the gormless pro right wing continue to compare Aust to these failing economies to Aust….we need an honest media and Opposition
Well, Bernard, you seem happy joining the invisible commentariat that somehow plays no part in events. The theme is clear from the Murdoch media: chaos, crisis. It was the launching pad for their beginning of the year attack on Julia Gillard and the Labor Party, where the sense of watching events on TY and reading the Murdoch press gave the impression one was in another world. This is the impression people from overseas have had when they see Australia as MSM reports it and view it through their media, which lack the Australian proprietor interest in bringing down the Labor government, which has been in place since the GFC.
The appalling thing is the alternative, where Barnaby Joyce can rabbit on with nonsense about the Carbon Tax (“it is meant to make things like electricity unaffordable”) which is only intended to shift relative prices so that electricity produced with fewer greenhouse gas emissions is more competitive in the market.
Labor’s crime, of course, is that a fair section of our business leaders are upset that the great shift in the share of national income to profits has not continued under Labor since the GFC.
Labor has helped shoot itself in the foot with Wayne Swan’s attempt to scuttle back from Keynsian policies to the silly belief that low tax economies are shown somewhere in economic theory to be more efficient. It is time we had higher taxes on the more wealthy part of the population to fund Gonski and NDS and to give what is needed, which is that government spending should grow in line with the economy over the longer term, after first being set at an appropriate levell of redistribution to achieve a bit of fairness
well done labor you say bernard
i say well done to the murdoch presslackeyslthe big miners big business and everybody else in this bloodless coup that has taken place since julia gillard put the agreement together with the independents after the last election
aided and abetted by tony abbott and his bunch of right wing ideologues
they have never ever acknowledged the results of the last election when they did not achievevictory in there own right
history will judge julia gillard well and i look forward to reading your grovelling comments when she wins the next election
BRAVO JULIA as an austrlian i am so proud of you
What this country needs is a couple of terms of the “Coalition” because I believe the good times have led the populace to forget how totally useless (bar MT) they are. If MT ever regains the top job then I might change my mind, but seriously - all they are is a disciplined bunch of salemen cheered on by a fawning press.
Bernard Keane - did I read this correctly, that Chris Bowen “crafted an excellent policy , the Malaysian solution”? I always thought that Bowen was extremely talented - I still do, but this policy, and his entire time as the minister responsible, will forever be a blight on his historical record. How is excellent policy diverting refugees to a country whose human rights abuses are legendary, where its system of government is politics by corruption? As painful as it is to admit, the opposition was absolutely correct to block it and the High Court supported that view.
As Maria O’Sullivan in The Conversation (31/8) explained the High Court’s decision: “The …. Migration Act provisions mean that a country has to be legally bound to provide access for asylum seekers to effective procedures and to provide protection for asylum seekers. A country like Malaysia has to be legally bound either under international law or its own domestic law to do those things [for the Malaysia Solution to be lawful].”. In other words, the court determined that Malaysia was not a country that could be trusted to provide protection or effective procedures for asylum seekers.
How is that excellent policy?
Bernard, you’re right, the leadership issue won’t go away because you guys in the media won’t let it nor will you give Julia a good rap for the positive things she’s done. So, rather than saying “Well done, Labor”, you should say, “Well done, Daily Tele” who clearly have the hearts and minds of western Sydney.
What a shame the media don’t spend as much time examining Liberal policy (or lack thereof) as they do the Labor leadership.
It is extraordinary that the bulk of the comments posted here blame the media for the government’s predicament. This is, in every respect, a train wreck of a government. It makes bad policy decisons and does everything it can to back out of them, it abuses the process of government and the parliament, its social policies, its environmental policies, its approach to the refugee issue, its obsequeous dealings with the mining companies over the mining tax, its ineffectual carbon tax, have all let down those people who believed that this was a government that could and would make a difference. Not to mention its reprehensible decision to remove Kevin Rudd for no good reason other than naked personal ambition.
And everyone here is blaming the media? For what? For reporting on these things and for reporting on the rumblings within the government that these failings generate? Something about shooting the messenger comes to mind. And I say this appreciating the one-eyed view of the Murdoch press.
I sincerely dread the prospect of a Tony Abbott led government but this is what we’re going to get and it’s not because the media reported on it. It’s because it’s what this hapless, incompetent government have done. This is a party so riven by factions, hamstrung by it’s undemocratic structures that it needs to spend a great deal of time in the political wilderness until it gets that what it does isn’t working. There can’t be no consequences for their actions. Unfortunately, the cost for us is Tony Abbott.
@DJS: Probably because it is a very media-driven government. It even holds spills because the media think we should have one.
The Labor Caucus has a death wish. It will be granted unless Abbott does something truly bizarre such as outline his genuine policy intentions prior to the election. But being frank and forthright isn’t his style so it looks as though Gillard & Co are history.
Abbott will enjoy a brief spell in the sun as PM then begin making gaffs even more memorable than Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s. They will then dispose of him (now that PM-removal has become a national sport) but I doubt Malcolm has sufficient popularity within party ranks to take the helm.
So Bernard all your insiders/leakers, chinese whispers, Snakes in the grass, took you in and egged your face? It took you 2 yrs to say anything positive about the ALP Gillard Government cause you were on what? that Kevin 07 would be returned to PM.? suckered again! Now you revert instantly to the to LNP/MSM/ABC propaganda, mistruths and revenge bile.
The PM Gillard out-played the players. PM Gillard played you once, PM played you twice, PM played you thrice, Gillard + 3. Fact free, truth free,vile bile LNP/MSM/ABC= 0
Now get with the program and stand up for truth, decency and democracy.
Believing this is the end of speculation is no doubt wishful thinking.
I can forgive that as long as we realise why the events of the last 36 hours demonstrate why Kevin Rudd should never be allowed to get the leadership of anything as important as his local P&C.
This man’s treachery during the last election forged a hung parliament out of a Labor win. He has trailed his skirt accross the political landscape remorselessly ever since. He has been happy to see the burning of some good people who were foolish enough to believe in him. He has taken too much from the Chinese emporers he admires. He wants caucus to come crawling on their hands and knees begging him to lead. He salivates over the power he would then wield. Put this megalomaniac in a box and mark it ‘do not touch’.
Abbott must not be able to believe his luck. From not long after he became leader, this deeply flawed man has been able to sit back and watch the media unquestionally take his side and give him a free ride in every which way. In short a mendacious and mediocre man supported by a mediocre team team of equally mendacious people. No, not you Malcolm T you could easily roll Tony A. Come on have a go!
Spot on Brian. Mark Latham told Rudd he was promoting him because he was popular amongst people who had never met him. An astute observation.
The Lib’s and Nationals - why do their votes get rolled together in the polls? - are in almost perfect synch with Murdoch and the big end of town. Quite unusual really, but nonetheless that’s the situation and whilst that is the case and the lesser MSM follows along there will be no attempt to see how they really will perform or if they stand for anything except for the lobbyists’ interests.
Now I would be foolish to suggest that the minority government havent handle some things “poorly” but given they are taking on some deeply entrenched rentseekers with many of their initiatives, is it any wonder there is an incredible wave of bile poured over their every move. The greed and hypocrisy are breathtaking.
Keep in mind that many of the people associated with “power” at the top end of town are some of the greatest f*ckups we have seen. Just look at the demolition of shareholder capital that board and management have presided over at Rio, BHP, QBE, NAB etc etc. Do we really want these bozos deciding this country’s future?
And totally agree withe posters who suggest our obsession with who is the leader is unhealthy.
When both sides of politics run presidential style campaigns they deserve this focus on the leader. Now watch the rats leave the sinking ship. Labor voters are fed up with this farce and will vote informal in record numbers.
They have to accept a fair bit of the blame, those Labor butterflies suffering from relevance deprivation don’t have to keep feeding Murdoch’s trolls and rock-spiders.
The self-immolation of the phoenix is necessary - for the new to arise from it’s ashes.
There’s something intrinsically wrong with something that can make Abbott look viable?
Malaysia was an appalling plan, what is wrong with you. It was human trading and trafficking, utterly immoral and illegal.,
For christ’s sake Bernard, Bowen was a ghastly little toad breaking more laws than I have had hot breakfasts.
If you partisan hacks on here are unable to distinguish between Keane’s commentary and that of the majority of the Canberra press gallery I feel sorry for you.
It is not surprising that many commenters here blame the media. It’s become a bit of a fetish among the posters here in the Crikey Crypt.
But the media did not completely stuff up the media reforms process in the way Conroy did.
The media did not arrange for the 3 largest resources companies to write the details of the MRRT.
The media did not introduce a carbon tax after proclaiming “There will be no carbon tax under a government I lead”.
The media didn’t knife a sitting prime minister.
The media didn’t promise a few hundred times to deliver a budget surplus in 2012/13.
The media did not start a $43b NBN and only deliver about 20% of its progress, signalling a massive cost overrun.
The media didn’t announce an election date in Spetember, loudly state thate the government would be governing until August and then promptly go campaigning in Western Sydney.
The media didn’t try to push through half-baked anti-discrimination legislation that was universally derided as a limit on freedom of speech.
The media didn’t hold yeasterday’s leadership spill.
And the media didn’t say it’s over. The media didn’t say Keving will never challenge again and the media didn’t call tony Abbott a misoginyst, a coward, not a fit person to be in parliament.
Some can’t bear to hear a critical word uttered against their “beliefs” - that denial limits their growth and progress; their ability to adapt and change to suit circumstances.
Keane is one of the most impartial observers and reporters of what is going on in Canberra.
The viewsmedia does edit how most of us get to see what is happening. They control “the remote”.
All most of us get is their view of reality - refracted and strained through their personal prejudices and agendas. Too often spun to suit their political imperatives. Using their influence on public opinion.
It is the media majority that supported the knifing of Kevin and now they support the knifing of Julia. For the media, leadership uncertainty is a sport that justifies their existence, what would they write about if there wasn’t instability. Won’t be any different under the coalition.
There is now way Crean called the spill yesterday to help Rudd. This was all about Julia trying to do over Kevin and today is all about him getting her back.
klewso @37 - I agree with you sentiments, perhaps the comments are more a reaction to the utter fear of what may come.
The Media didn’t grow employment
The Media didn’t grow the economy
The media didn’t keep rates low
The media didn’t keep inflation low
The midia didn’t enact policies that avoided recession that every other economy hit
The media did not label Howard profligate
The media didn’t start to make inroads into middle class entitlement welfare
The media didn’t rejuvenate our schoold
The media didn’t address the lack of a national broadband networkthat would cripple Asutrali for the future
The media didn’t improve productivity
The media didn’t run one of the most successful legislative programs ever
The media didn’t bring in reforms for finalical services industry
The media did fail to analyse policy
The media did continually beat up leadership spills
The media did and continues to fail to hold Abbott to account ( look at he recent effort on adoptians)
The media did fail to be balanced fair and thoughtful
The media in part did take partisan politiocal position ( The Oz stated it was out to destroy the greens)
The media did perpetuate the BER & Batts myths of error despite the truth
The Gillard govt is a long way from perfect & they have certainly gaffed but there have been many significant gains
and there is no crisis they have been more effective than a Howard Govt with a huge ecomony and boom times to manage
I’m with Achmed on this - Crikey, how about taking a leading role in policy analysis from now until August when the PM goes to see the GG? Everyday a story that explains and analyses a fairly specific policy area - follow up with more detail and some stakeholder interviews during the next week or so and then check back in a month or two for how things are going. I know it will be hard - getting out of Canberra, talking to someone besides other journalists and politicians or senior public servants. And here’s the real disciple for you - no leadership speculation at the end of the article.
Some ideas, you ask? Well, family policy for a start - what support is there for women leaving violence with children? How about going beyond the military in the promising series on the cult of hard boiled masculinity that makes men keep silent until they hurt so much or else lash out on family and friends, What are the great programmes that are getting children reading, etc. Other readers may have more suggestion.
Poor old David Hand.The defence of the media must be an endless task but if they propagate your viewpoint, I suppose you must. Yes, the media stuff up was a self-inflited blow - reminded me of how Rudd handled the MRRT. But knifing Rudd because he was an autocratic and less than humble PM in the middle of his first term. Well that has been kept alive by the media, who somehow manage to look the other way when the Premier of Vic and the first minister of the NT fall in their first terms and with far less excuse in Vic. Much of your other stuff is of the same order. The Carbon tax is no story properly consider: it is an emission trading scheme witha 3 year fixed price period beforehand, instead of a 1 year period. And yes, Abbott whipped up this scare before the 2010 election and Gillard said what she said to quash it, She could be presumed to have meant a “(majority) government led by me and no doubt people elsewhere in the world, out of range of our media, regard the matter is hardly worth commenting on, let alone a subject on which Abbott can lie and huff and puff (Whyalla still there? - not really mentioning all the lies and exaggeration in Tony’s sound bites).
Yes, the promise of a surplus was a self-inflicted wound but that’s not the subject of a big media campaign because nobody thinks it can be done where tax policy is so biased to the top end of town and they don’t want to draw too much attention to that. David Hand may wave on about it but nobody else cares really
Rudd is a spineless prevaricator that let his mates take a big hit for him and weasled out of his responsibility to make a public stand instead of persist with his behind the scenes undermining of the government. Good riddance to Bowen who has completely hashed the refugee policy, and to the rest of the weasles that as you suggest have significantly contributed to the possibility of nationally significant policies being swept away because of their churlish indicipline and disloyalty to the government and the ALP. They are so culpable for the farce that is Kevin Rudd and the damage this has wrought on their party, their parliamentary colleagues and the community that they should be severely sanctioned and disendorsed. The folly of attempting to install Rudd in the leadership proved rudderless which is consistent with his chaotic mangement style for which he was dumped in the first place. There is no reformed Kevin. He is the same manaipulative, insincere wanker he’s always been - let’s speak of Kevin no more. If the government rides now into the valley of political oblivion because the energies have been irrevocably sapped and divided - let’s at least make it a good fight over things that matter.
Every time Julia upsets me, this time by letting Conroy stuff up the media laws introduction, she pulls off a big one. She has sorted out Rudd and, with any luck, cleaned out her Cabinet of people who must at least be suspected of leaking against her. She should now have a little bit of clear air.
With a record like this government six months without destabilisation should be enough to shift enough of the population.
To me the media’s egocentric attitude to their “special subject” was epitomised by Uhlmann last night - with his “bold prediction” (that he wasn’t “going to make”).
*WTF? Bring me the news, not a kebab - wrapped in some op-ed’s opinion. Trust me, I can do the rest and make up my own mind.
This load of codswallop is based on daily venom served up by the Murdoch media and if you buy it Bernie, so must a lot of people who are stupider than you. FFS!
@David Hand & ors - there are criticisms that can be made of the government relating to the way the government played the politics on particular issues, as well as well as policy consultation and implementation. But at the the end of the day, so what? The criticisms are petty, compared to the benefits of the big policy initiatives that were/are being implemented and the way the government nailed the macro issues of managing the economy and employment, giving us all the luxury of complaining about garbage.
As as for the Libs, they don’t even rate.
Oh, one qualifier to my comment above, if the government stands to be substantively criticised, its how they’ve treated the asylum seeker issue. I’m one with Marilyn Shepherd for the reasons she’s pointed out. The demonisation of asylum seekers through the pacific solution, malaysia solution etc is r*c*st, despicable, illegal, morally and ethically outrageous. The sooner there is a High Court challenge to this ghastly pacific solution and the concentration camps, the better.