Toxic Labor brand cost WA’s Mark McGowan his chance
It is nonsense to argue that the toxicity of the federal Labor Party played no part in the enormity of the swing suffered by the Labor Party at the weekend’s WA election. Perth federal MP Stephen Smith, who was a panellist on ABC television on election night, sensibly acknowledged — however delicately — the federal party had been “a drag” on state Labor and had “not been helpful” to its prospects.
The truth is Prime Minister Julia Gillard and federal Labor played a major role in the devastation wreaked upon state Labor. Newspoll’s exit polling showed that 51% of voters placed the federal government as the most important issue in influencing their vote. Outside the metropolitan area, 54% of voters placed federal Labor as the most important issue influencing their vote.
Overall 33% of voters identified the carbon tax as their most important issue, with 30% picking the mining tax. These issues were surpassed only by the cost of living and the cost of housing at 34%. Federal Labor’s effect at the ballot box is clear; Barnett campaigned on the carbon tax and the mining tax. Barnett was unquestionably out-campaigned by Labor leader Mark McGowan but was seen as a steady, reliable and competent premier who had overseen strong economic growth in the state.
McGowan had asked Gillard not to visit WA during the campaign, but he could not keep her out of the lounge rooms of WA voters. Gillard was in effect campaigning during the state election. Her excursion into western Sydney in the final week of the campaign led the evening news each night. McGowan’s timidness in dealing with Gillard was unhelpful. He should at the very least have openly attacked her and said publicly she was not welcome in WA.
The Greens vote fell by 4%, and it seems at very best it might hold two upper house seats. The one seat in which the Greens polled well was Kimberley, where it attracted 25% of the primary vote entirely due to the controversy over the James Point gas hub. The final result of Kimberley is not yet clear; however, Labor, which has held the seat since 1980, attracted just 21.6% of the primary vote. It would appear much of the Greens vote came directly from Labor. The Greens attracted 7.2% of the upper house vote, down 4%, which would cause them to lose their WA Senate representation at the federal level.
In a nice sense of irony, the National Party’s candidate for Kimberley had to resign her ALP membership to allow her to join the Nationals, and the ALP candidate for Pilbara had to resign from the Greens to stand for Labor.
At the 2008 state election the National Party held the balance of power, and leader Brendan Grylls, in showing his real colours, agreed to a coalition with Labor. A condition of National support for Labor was Labor’s agreement to a National Party royalties for regions scheme, whereby 25% of all royalties were to be spent in country regions, with Grylls as the responsible minister. A number of Grylls’ colleagues refused to serve with Labor, and the agreement collapsed, only to have it taken up by Premier Barnett, who entered into a coalition with the National Party which was given ministries with the right to vote against cabinet decisions.
The royalties for regions fund received $1.2 billion in 2012, of which the seat of Pilbara received $254.5 million for that year alone. At this election Grylls abandoned his seat of Central Wheatbelt and successfully contested the seat of Pilbara, 1650 kilometres to the north.
As Minister for Royalties for Regions Grylls has frequently visited the Pilbara, flying into towns within the electorate in the government jet to announce huge payments for various conspicuous purposes. Labor had previously held the seat for many years and in losing it, suffered a swing of 13.3%.
Grylls, who has no connection with the Pilbara save for “his” royalties for regions money, made it clear during the campaign he had no intention of leaving Perth to live in the electorate.
The wheatbelt region received $130 million in royalties for regions money in 2012. Central Wheatbelt, unsurprisingly, was retained by the Nationals. The National Party also won the mining electorate of Kalgoorlie, with the Labor Party receiving just 19.2% of the primary vote in this traditional Labor stronghold.
During the campaign the National Party was the only party to refuse to have its promises costed, stating that its costings were irrelevant because they would simply be paid for from royalties for regions funds whatever the cost.
Labor gave its preferences in these traditional Labor seats to the National Party, and it will have a great deal more difficulty regaining them from the Nationals than it would have from the Liberal Party.
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What NCB fails to point out is that Barnett was able to escape scrutiny for the absence of talent at his disposal.
There is him and the incredibly flawed Buswell and that’;s it once Porter left. This is why so many portfolios were with one minister
For example Porter was A/G & Treasurer
Buswell is Treasurer/Transport & Housing.
Barnett had ti use an independant as aEd Minnister the lack was so great
Any one of these portfolios is a full time job
I am not sure the newbies are any better but the bias of The Worst and lack of local current affairs TV will probably hide the issue
by The Pav on Mar 12, 2013 at 1:25 pm
First off,
I wish people would stop referring to labor’s toxic brand. Its not a brand, its a politcal party. Its one of the most rediculous and irrelevant phrases to appear in recent times and the use of the word toxic is just sensationalist rot.
Your main point was that one poll of voters said that the carbon tax was the most important issue. Oh wait no it was cost of living pressure which is largely state controlled despite what rubbish people might tell you about the impact of the carbon tax.
All that tells you is that WA voters on average are the most self interested and selfish voters in the country. That is the main message I get from that result.
I’ll have to re-read the bit about the nationals and the deals. I didn’t quite pick up the relevance to ‘federal labors toxic brand’.
by beetwo77 on Mar 12, 2013 at 1:36 pm
I agree with beetwo77, please stop using the word “toxic” as well as “on the nose”. Why not just say labor is a putrefying pile of biological contaminants if that’s what you mean.
Also agree that if the carbon PRICING MECHANISM (why can’t journos get that right either?) and the MRT were the sole reason WA voters turned against labor then their a selfish bunch with no future vision. Roll on the collapse in the mining boom so they can be put back in their box.
by mikehilliard on Mar 12, 2013 at 1:53 pm
He who must be Obeid…
A former?? fifo bagman for the LNP
Toxicity would be his special subject on mastermind ..
by john willoughby on Mar 12, 2013 at 2:19 pm
michelle Grattan is one thing but Crikey has to be really scraping the bottom of the barrel to have Noel Crighton Browne as a contributor. what next Fred Nile?
by Terry Goulden on Mar 12, 2013 at 2:21 pm
An update on the Kimberley - with 67% percent of the vote counted, the Greens are on 23.6% of the vote, with Labor now leading on primaries with 27.4%, and most likely to retain the seat (the Liberal is on 25.1%).
Not that it really matters.
by Tim Macknay on Mar 12, 2013 at 2:24 pm
What else is Noel Crighton-Brown famous for?
Was it something to do with “an oven” ….?
by klewso on Mar 12, 2013 at 3:36 pm
And now Crikey are raising a wife beater from the dead as if he is of interest and now a credible person.
Shades of lazy media.
by shepherdmarilyn on Mar 12, 2013 at 4:25 pm
For the Labor staffers - In this case there is no need for the messenger to have any credibility as even a drovers dog could take one look at the WA result and conclude that the voters have realized that the Labor brand is “toxic” and “on the nose”. The last thing any Australian jurisdiction needs at the moment is another Labor administration controlled by a faction dominated by faceless men. Hope we were all watching 4 Corners last night.
by Savonrepus on Mar 12, 2013 at 4:55 pm
Dear Savonrepus
Would these be the faceless men who just replaced the Vic Premier or seleceted a leader not in the parliament?
by The Pav on Mar 12, 2013 at 5:10 pm
Dear The Pav
Even you would have to admit that the payoff for a Liberal party MP in Victoria voting on leadership is rather insignificant in comparison to the apparent rewards on offer for leadership of a Labor Party faction that can control who is The Boss.
by Savonrepus on Mar 12, 2013 at 5:23 pm
Dear Sourpuss
Both parties have factions its just that the ALP is more organised.
personally I don’t care. All deal are done behind closed doors and probably factioanl system is more open. the members are known.
Anyway the factions make their votes then vote over all. bit like electorates so how is that either undemocratic or somehow murky.
I mean were reporters present when the Vic dump what;s his name?
I don’t thinks so so that was a behind the door deal..So what.
by The Pav on Mar 12, 2013 at 5:42 pm
Dear The Pav
The headline of this article was Toxic Labor brand as illustrated by the WA election on the weekend. I am unsure why you would try and suggest events in relation to change of leadership in the Victorian Liberal Party would have any impact on the Labor brand. Quite clearly however the events that I refer to go to the heart of the problem. You may think that the way to address the current Labor dilemma is to talk about the Liberal Party but all ignorance is going to achieve is further electoral wipe-outs for Labor. I am sure you could be much more constructive in a search for a solution to Labor unpopularity.
by Savonrepus on Mar 12, 2013 at 6:12 pm
Dear Sourpus
I was simply replying to you banal faceless men comment in your post at #9
I would rather try and learn why a govt presiding over good growth in a weak world economy, low inflation, low rates and improving productivity is regarded as toxic
I’m not a resident of NSW but from afar their local politics have always reeked.both sides. Then in Qld the Bjelke -Petersen bagman was his Police Minister!!!
News Ltd ( the main Abbot cheer leader) rails against the govt but this is the organisation that hacks into voice mails, bribes officials and rorts salary caps.Hardly holding the moral high ground there are we?
The on broken promises. Abbott as health minister breaks an absolute assurance when in power during an election campaign, his party wins win an increased majority and immediatley breaks the promise
Compared to Gillars’d Carbon Tax ( which it isn;ty)that’s far worse and any way if she hadn’t brought in the carbon tax then she would have broken the promise to introduce a carbon price yet it is Gillard who is villified.
As I say mystifying, unfair and an indictment on the MSM and in particular News Ltd which is probably why that part of it is dying and losing relevance
by The Pav on Mar 12, 2013 at 6:22 pm
Savon, I reckon the AWB was the biggest scandal in our history and two of John Howard’s now discredited former chiefs of staff were up to their eyeballs in the cover up of the theft of $300 million from starving Iraqis so Australian farmers could rort the system and get rich - now that is a scandal that killed tens of thousands.
It doesn’t take a genius to know that most of NSW is a coal bearing potential mine and buying almost any property will get you coal or CSG.
And Arthur Sinodinos was up to his armpits in deals with Obeid and so was one of Ruddock’s good mates Karim Ksirwani.
by shepherdmarilyn on Mar 12, 2013 at 6:59 pm
Wasn’t NCB some sort of crook?
by Graeboy on Mar 12, 2013 at 7:49 pm
shepherdmarilyn please. The issue is the unpopularity of Labor - it would not matter if the Libs caused the sinking of the Titanic it is irrelevant to this discussion. Clearly the reason it is becoming a bigger and bigger problem is that the Labor political manual states - in relation to any evidence we are taking the wrong direction make sure you are Liberal with your response.
Clearly with outcomes like WA the manual needs urgent revision. The ostrich that put his head in the sand is a prime target to get its butt kicked.
by Savonrepus on Mar 12, 2013 at 8:07 pm
by the way sheperdmarilyn - John Howard set up the AWB enquiry or his Government - perhaps if Labor actually started to take ownership of some of its problems as well rather than just looking over the fence at the Liberals all the time it may start to work out how to repair its toxic brand.
by Savonrepus on Mar 12, 2013 at 8:12 pm
Set the terms of reference and you can set the outcome too.
by klewso on Mar 12, 2013 at 9:34 pm
NCB should take a cold shower and remember a bit of history.
Australians virtually always give new governments a second go. Barnett has got his. When we do vote out governments we normally give them a whack. WA Labor did not get one when they lost government this cycle so Westralians wanted to make sure they had the message.
Labor lost government in WA because their message showed they had lost touch with the wealth generating hinterland. To farmers “forget the science - NO GM HERE -too dangerous.
To miners “we’re living in the 70’s - NO WA YELLOW CAKE.
Sadly Labor too often confuses the amount of noise with the number of adherents.
On the other hand congestion is a big issue in Perth and McGowans MetroNet was a good effort.
f/LOpp
by Brian Ede on Mar 13, 2013 at 1:02 am
The vote in WA to punish Federal Labor is a disgrace that West Aussies will regret.
Colon has taken WA debt from $4billion to over $20 billion in 4 years.
Another 4 years at this rate will see a debt of $36billion.
Bite your nose off to spite your face
by Achmed on Mar 13, 2013 at 2:05 am
A really impartial commentator - not
Almost enough to cancel my Crikey subs.
This man, over his political history, was a Liberal power player.
What of any balance, he can say here is of little value.
He is too tarnished by his pedigree.
by Tricot on Mar 13, 2013 at 10:40 am
Tricot, you must be aware that there is no shortage of pro-ALP journalism and opinion here. Latham writes here as well. I have no problem with NCB’s voice being heard, there are plenty of worse things in the world than NCB’s opinion. I’d actually like to see a few more things like this article.
by rowboat on Mar 13, 2013 at 5:42 pm