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Rundle: Sandy’s winds of change bring hope for Obama

Hurricane Sandy’s winds of change are bringing the “October Surprise” to this year’s US presidential campaign, giving Obama a foot up as polls reveal his tight battle with Romney.

So the storm’s coming in. Hurricane Sandy, that angry eye, winking out from the mid-Atlantic on every newscast, moving in slowly, making landfall in Jersey, where it threatens to do billions of dollars worth of improvement boomboom. Cue endless standup jokes about Hurricane Sandy (it’s really a storm but whatever) coming ashore at Atlantic City, and leaving six hours later with all its money gone, and its empty wallet stolen by a hooker. Boomboom.

Sandy, promising epic devastation, but, because it’s only a storm, people are responding more sluggishly than the authorities would prefer. Coney Island has been evacuated, the southern tip of Manhattan is a no-go zone, out here in Columbus, Ohio, rains are lashing us, the outer edge of a storm that now has a thousand-mile diameter. President Obama curtailed his campaign stops yesterday; Mitt Romney did the same today, facing the difficult choice — get the advantage while Obama does Presidenty stuff, or look like a tool for stumping in Dittoville, Iowa, while your opponent deals with life and death matters.

Sandy, an event that may or may not disrupt the whole electoral process, but which news-starved commentators are already dubbing 2012’s “October Surprise”, the traditional-as-Halloween last minute reversal in an election, now so awaited that it has become its opposite. No surprise is a surprise. Sandy, the storm, kids are already dressing as it for trick-or-treating, parents swirling paper around them. Sandy, the storm which may make Obama look presidential, or may interfere with the early voting he needs, or may stop white seniors from early voting in Virginia and thus stymie Romney’s victory in that state, or … well take any scenario you want.

Sandy, name of a woman I persuaded to leave her husband in the late ’90s. He was a recovering junkie, she was a rising novelist. They lived in Oval, a sinkhole of south London. God I was in love with her. How much? Her husband, who had struggled with incredible courage out of junkdom to sobriety, used to come out drinking with us. He stuck to orange juice. He was so determined to go straight — and so decent, at the eye of his own storm, that he told Sandy that if he ever lapsed, she should leave him immediately. Having heard that from her, it occurred to me at one point that if I slipped crushed codeine tablets into his OJ, he’d be back on the junk before you can say evilevilevil. In the midst of trying to prise her away from him, I had to tell the other woman I was encouraging to cheat her on her partner, that there was someone else. Boy, that’s a hard conversation. Thank god for voicemail.

It didnt work out with Sandy, but the intent is the thing. I thought I would burn in hell. Hell came early, like this year. Eh bien. The storm sends us all to the edges of our own lives. Sandy’s in Brooklyn now. She published two very good novels, a terrible memoir, and an overrated but very successful anti-novel-writing guide, written with the man she threw me over for again, when she became available, a decade later. Actually, that was soon after Obama was elected in ‘08, in the bar of the Waldorf-Astoria. I left for Mexico later that day, paying airport price for a ticket. Arrived in Tijuana, took a bus down the coast to Mazatlan, where Kerouac and Ginsberg used to hang out. The Sinaloa cartel run the joint now, and the place was in lockdown. The military patrolled the streets in APCs, wearing balaclavas so the cartel wouldn’t identify them and kill their families. But that’s another story. The big story at the time was how the cartels were fixing local beauty pageants. Miss Sinaloa was arrested while driving with her boyfriend, who had four rocket-launchers in the boot of his car. She said they were travelling to Bolivia and Columbia to “go shopping”.

Yes, I digress, but let’s face it, you’re more intrigued than you would be by anything I or anyone could say about this election at this point, aren’t ye? Until Storm Sandy Converging Now*, this election had come to a final week of grinding it out, the thankless task of endless repetitive appearances at ever-smaller burgs of Ohio and Virginia, with a few detours elsewhere. For all the earnest science applied to the effect of advertising, ground-game, sign-up etc, no-one really knows what the effect of a presidential visit is on a campaign. So they keep checking in on places where it might make a difference, just in case. Obama was going to go up to Green Bay in north Wisconsin, until Sandy queered his plans. The event is keeping Mitt out of Virginia, a state he was hoping to consolidate over the final week.

The polls — well, the polls are all over the shop. Whatever happens out of this election, some polls will lose all credibility. Most polls put the national race at a tie, or give a one point lead to Obama, but there are two outliers. Rasmussen gives a two point lead to Romney, but since Rasmussen is always three points shifted to the Right, that accords with the general run of polls. The outlier is Gallup, which has consistently given Romney a five to seven point lead in the last month. Critics say that Gallup undercounts black and especially Hispanic voters. Gallup stands by its methods. But it was off the mark in 2008, and if it is wrong again, its credibility will be utterly shot.

Needless to say, the Right — which is now wary of Rasmussen’s consistent bias — has been running exclusively on Gallup’s serial releases. The degree to which partisan groups spruik favourable polls in the US is often mystifying to people from Westminster-style systems — where everyone tries to be the underdog — but the reason is obvious. You have to convince people in swing states that their candidate is in with a chance overall   — at which point, getting out to vote state-by-state becomes a matter of life and death. It’s one reason why Rasmussen is so happy for its polls to run consistently above temperature (and for a rival but more explicitly partisan Democratic outfit PPP to run the other way), as cheerleader.

For Barack Obama, the storm presents one great advantage — by its very nature, it foregrounds the notion of collective endeavour, rather than individual activity. Furthermore, and even more dangerously for Romney, it emphasises the necessary role of the state, and especially the federal state, in doing something that is beyond the scope of the market or the local. That would be common sense, right? Well, uh, not so much for the Republicans. Here’s Romney from a CNN debate in June 2011, when asked if FEMA should be stripped of most of its funding and powers:

 ”Absolutely … Every time you have an occasion to take something from the federal government and send it back to the states, that’s the right direction. And if you can go even further, and send it back to the private sector, that’s even better. Instead of thinking, in the federal budget, what we should cut, we should ask the opposite question, what should we keep? … We cannot — we cannot afford to do those things without jeopardising the future for our kids … It is simply immoral, in my view, for us to continue to rack up larger and larger debts …”

This if course was “severely conservative” Mitt Romney, pandering to the Tea Party and the Ayn Randies upon whom he depended for the Republican nomination. The quote is now playing across the mediasphere, and may have come off the leash as fast as the storm itself. How will the Democrats handle it? There is no chance that Obama himself will speak to it, but will surrogates — Biden, et al — hammer it home? It’s a dicey situation, but it’s arguable that it is worth the risk, to really push the message — and to add, as a bonus, that VP candidate Paul Ryan’s budget included a defunding of FEMA, before its more extreme provisions were knocked on the head by party elders.

Sandy converging now may be a piece of very bad news for the Republicans indeed. Though they have good reason to be chipper, with some worrying state polling for the Obama campaign — when Minnesota has come into a mere 4% Democratic lead, Pennsylvania 4% and Wisconsin 2.5%, well, all those are still clear enough margins, but mighty closer than they have been in the past — their strategy suggests that they too believe that the advantage still lies with the Democrats.

The latest ad in Ohio has been one accusing Obama of being responsible for Chrysler outsourcing Jeep production to China — except Chrysler didn’t, it established a factory in China to produce for the Chinese market. The lie was so blatant that even Chrysler put out a statement disputing it. The conventional wisdom of such ads, which would never survive in places with greater supervision of election claims, is that the advantage gained is greater than the eventual hit to credibility. It’s not the sort of thing a more confident campaign would do.

On the other hand, the Romney campaign is also running a series of softer ads, trying to appeal to disillusioned ‘08 Obama voters, assuaging their guilt for switching: “You believed. He tried. He failed.” It directly contradicts other ads, many of them from SuperPACs etc, suggesting that Obama was all but intent on wrecking the economy, but the theory is that different ads appeal to different groups, and don’t necessarily cancel each other out. And if you can find a thousand voters with each ad, you’re doing well.

Well, 9pm on the eastern seaboard, and Atlantic City is underwater now, as, usually, are most of its visitors. The waves are lapping at Battery Park, at the edge of Manhattan. But in precincts across the country, the campaign goes on. It’s an ill wind that scatters us all, the wind of history, my friends, of history, do you hear me, above the raging torrents? It will blow someone good, who, we will know next Tuesday. Maybe …

*oh come on, high five, high five…

13
  • 1
    paddy
    Posted Tuesday, 30 October 2012 at 1:20 pm | Permalink

    Lulz 50 shades of Guy. Genius!

  • 2
    Dogs breakfast
    Posted Tuesday, 30 October 2012 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

    As I was watching the news last night on Sandy I was left wondering if the Fates have intervened in this election. It’s much easier to read this as being in Obama’s favour than Romney’s, even without the quote about de-funding FEMA.

    If there is one thing we do well in Australia, better than just about anywhere, it is our ability to pull together in disaster, and to not begrudge, in fact to insist, on governmental help at those times. Surely, as you suggest Guy, this is a no-brainer. The ‘market’ doesn’t cover such exigencies.

    How does a country so entrenched with the idea of the primacy of the market and small govt deal with natural disasters? It must open a schism even in the most hardened of conservative minds.

    Or am I dreaming?

  • 3
    Wombat
    Posted Tuesday, 30 October 2012 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    Will wait with bated breath to see how the Right spins Sandy after the election. No doubt that if Romney wins, Sandy will be interpreted as the divine intervention which saved the nation. If Obama wins, then Sandy will be divine disapproval, or Satan’s jubilation, or some such drivel.

  • 4
    Graeme
    Posted Tuesday, 30 October 2012 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

    Yes, write about sandy beaches, Sandy women… Anything but the prolonged stasis and static noise that is the US election.

    And give us anything but the ‘LIVE, LIVE, ONLINE! VIDEOS OF PEOPLE POSSIBLY SUFFERING OR DOGS STANDING IN THE WIND’ coverage of a cyclone. (A cyclone that was a bare footnote in the news when it killed 60 in the Caribbean; but hey, ut poor countries that don’t have a thousand direct media feeds into our living rooms don’t count.)

    I’m a political junkie, and far from anti-American - am planning two trips there next year for work.

    But the US is not the Centre of the Universe. It’s just one interesting land amongst dozens. Yet our lazy, infantile media laps up the corn syrup that pours from US electronic feedlots every mili-second, and spreads it around for our re-consumption through its rear end.

  • 5
    zut alors
    Posted Tuesday, 30 October 2012 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

    Viva digression! Poor Sandy (not the hurricane) was surely the loser.

    A suggestion for Barry Obama: tell the Don your passport documents and college records were in readiness to be presented to His Trumpness by 5pm 31 October. Tragically, they were swept away from a downtown Manhattan storage facility by a powerful tide despatched by an angry g0d.

  • 6
    zut alors
    Posted Tuesday, 30 October 2012 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    Drat, the notification box eluded me yet again.

    Crikey, please place the follow-up posting box at the END of the comments, not the beginning.

  • 7
    michael r james
    Posted Tuesday, 30 October 2012 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

    What with Sandy hitting the Jersey shore and Atlantic City, I am surprised no one so far has riffed on Springsteen. Guy, it is a perfect torch song for such melodramas, so:

    Fourth Of July, Asbury Park (Sandy)
    Artist: Bruce Springsteen
    Album: The Wild, The Innocent & The E Street Shuffle
    .
    Sandy, the waitress I was seein’ lost her desire for me
    I spoke with her last night, she said she won’t set herself on fire for me anymore
    She worked that joint under the boardwalk, she was always the girl you saw boppin’ down the beach with the radio
    Kids say last night she was dressed like a star in one of the cheap little seaside bars, and I saw her parked with her lover boy out on the Kokomo
    Did you hear, the cops finally busted Madame Marie for tellin’ fortunes better than they do?
    For me this carnival life’s through — you ought to quit this scene too
    .
    Sandy, the aurora is risin’ behind us
    Those pier lights, our carnival life forever
    Oh, love me tonight and I promise I’ll love you forever
    Oh, I mean it, Sandy girl

  • 8
    CHRISTOPHER DUNNE
    Posted Tuesday, 30 October 2012 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

    Or as the Yanks were tweeting earlier today: Sandy is like a big wet Kardashian, ready to blow the whole East Coast just to get on TV.

    Ka boom, indeed.

    And so the ambling Aspie went on and told a crowd, (a very white one, as usual) about how America has seen hurricanes before, and there was not even one groan of recognition, a flicker of a memory. Now, if the audience had been black…

    But not to worry, it went out on national TV and therefore the entire world saw this gormless robot remind us all of the last Republican president, and that ‘other’ event.

    God, he almost makes Bush look like a genius. Almost.

  • 9
    Monash.edu
    Posted Tuesday, 30 October 2012 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    Sandy, why can’t we look the other way?” — Interpol, “Evil”

    Enigmatic…

  • 10
    Guy Rundle
    Posted Tuesday, 30 October 2012 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    well spotted mr james - ive almost entirely forgotten springsteen’s pre-born to run albums, as has bruce. might re-acquaint myself.

  • 11
    MJPC
    Posted Wednesday, 31 October 2012 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    The great pity is that Sandy did not eventuate well prior to the last debate so that President Obama could address Mr Romney’s FEMA comments based on recent events.
    Small government is the great icon of those who do not wish to spread the load through a fair tax regime, adequate social programs and open government.
    However, I wonder if those same voters in NY will wonder what would have (or will in future?) happened if FEMA was privatised. Maybe the suggestion was made to draw light away from the abyssmal leadership shown of G Bush jnr after Katrina. Better someone else does it badly so blame can be adequately sheeted home to market forces.
    Governments can call on impressive forces with the lift of a telephone, be they air force, navy, army or, in the case of the US, National Guard. Would a private company be able to marshall such forces as quickly?

  • 12
    Stevo the Working Twistie
    Posted Wednesday, 31 October 2012 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    @MJPC - yes, I’m sure a private company would respond magnificently, as long as you were in Wall St or Park Avenue or one of the LI gated communities. And if you don’t happen to have a privileged postal code, well that’s your own darned fault.

  • 13
    zut alors
    Posted Wednesday, 31 October 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    Perhaps Romney has a secret plan to somehow turn FEMA into a derivative and flog it to a gaggle of over-confident bankers.

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