How Labor’s winter of discontent didn’t go to plan
When MPs gather in Canberra after the end of the winter recess next week, the political landscape won’t look like many thought it would when Parliament wrapped up amid fury and anguish at the end of June.
The asylum seeker stand-off remains unresolved, and we’ll plunge straight back into that with the Houston panel report, which goes to the government on Monday. That never plays well for Labor, so the government might yet find itself mired in another boats crisis quick smart.
But the winter break certainly didn’t play out according to opposition plans. July 1 came and went without any drama associated with the carbon price. August 1 then came and went without drama. Yesterday’s jobs data for July saw a lift in employment after June had seen a sizeable fall. Non-official inflation data suggested our main concern might be deflation, rather than the rampant price rises predicted by the Coalition. Even many Liberal voters, far more likely to see the economic cloud than any silver lining, professed to have not seen any price rises.
Then there was the curious framing exercise, delivered via a one-two punch from first Wayne Swan and then, this week, Julia Gillard. Swan risked ridicule by embracing his inner Boss, but the Springsteen stuff enabled Swan, and Labor, to get a cut-through message out about its values in a way that just another speech, just another interview, would never have done. Moreover, it complemented one of the government’s few reputational strengths, the impression that it is more inclined to manage the economy for working Australians rather than business, as voters tend to think the Coalition does. It also comes at a time when the government has near-utopian unemployment, inflation and interest rate figures to boast of.
The Coalition’s response to Wayne Swansteen was to miss the point; by citing Adam Smith and John Stuart Mill as his influences, Joe Hockey thought he was engaged in a contest to impress voters with his high-mindedness (difficult when most voters are unlikely to have heard of either) rather than to connect with them.
Gillard followed up with the electricity speech this week. That, too, wrong-footed the Coalition. The sound point to make would have been to wonder why Labor has only discovered this problem when the major state governments are Coalition ones, and kept quiet about gouging and over-investment when Labor state governments were responsible for it. Instead, Tony Abbott went over the top in claiming Gillard was fabricating the whole problem, a claim so egregious it didn’t take long for his own shadow minister to contradict him and say that not merely was there a problem, but that the Coalition would fix it more quickly than Labor would.
Manifestly, Abbott was let down by his staff, who failed to brief him, or gave him dud advice in encouraging him to wish away a key factor behind rising power prices. It also confirmed the impression that, once you get him off attacking the carbon price and asylum seekers, Abbott is a flake. Malcolm Turnbull, for all his many and varied faults of political style, was across most issues as leader because of his genuine interest in public policy. That’s why he was able to offer intelligent en passant comments on the electricity issue this week.
Part of the impression of Abbott’s flakiness, of course, is that he prefers a political approach to policy, which is why he’s now adopted a media policy of wanting freedom of speech for News Ltd but greater censorship of the internet, a stance that grates with those of us who like consistency and rigour, but that maximises his political interests.
Gillard didn’t raise electricity merely in the hope of an Abbott fumble or to bag conservative premiers; it was part insurance policy, designed to encourage voters, when the next round of electricity bills arrive, to not just blame her, and perhaps even to wonder why they’re being compensated for the carbon price but not for what Barry O’Farrell or Campbell Newman are doing. It’s also part of Labor’s continuing efforts to pander to the electorate’s misperception of cost of living pressures. There’s no FuelWatch or GroceryWatch this time around, but the threat of regulation, one that it’s safe to make given the electricity market is a purely government creation in a way that most markets aren’t.
The PM also benefited from one of those pieces of political good fortune that come along once in a while. This week’s Newspoll improbably showed a five-point rise in Labor’s primary vote. In fact the previous Newspoll, which had Labor down at 28%, looked like an outlier, but as usual the media reported it as though it was a perfect channelling of the electoral zeitgeist rather than a statistical exercise with a margin of error. The result: the illusion of momentum for the government that ensures there’s less talk than there otherwise would be of the leadership as MPs return to Canberra.
This government’s history is to follow up a good fortnight like the one it has just had with some sort of self-inflicted debacle that reverses all the momentum and ensures that Abbott’s flakiness is never subjected to sustained pressure. For that reason, the Houston report and the next move on asylum seekers now looms as the next crucial test for Gillard. But then, there have been innumerable “crucial tests” for her set by commentators and colleagues alike, and she keeps on keeping on regardless. Maybe at some point she’ll be able to get the pressure off her and onto her opponent. The result may not be pretty.
The Newspolls are dodgy and meant to lead voters.
The only reason they have lifted Gillard and Labor’s numbers is so they can crash them in a few week with big headlines.
They’ve been doing it for ages
Pretty good article although the line “This government’s history is to follow up a good fortnight like the one it has just had with some sort of self-inflicted debacle” is misleading on 2 fronts, firstly the more recent history has been pretty solid wit a reasonabley well sustained period of sure footedness, and secondly not all debacle’s have been self inflicted. The media have beaten up everything they can get their hands on in order to keep Gillard under pressure (take the Shorten Pie scandal).
But as I have said for a long time, as the Carbon tax gets shown for what it is and the govt is able to get on to less controverssial policy areas of the NDIS (nice of the premiers to give Gillard a free kick on this one) education funding and now electricity pricing the polls whill improve, if Gillard is within 6 by years end Abbott wil be under pressure.
I thought I saw even the asylum seekers issue turn against the Coalition, with its inflexibility and insistence on the irresponsibility of ‘turning back the boats’.
Have always detected some herd behaviour in these random polls.
As when the herd at rest waits for the “lead cow” to make the effort to rise up and wander off to shelter for the night, human herd creatures are quite content to wait for others to make decisions for them.
In short a bad or good poll will lead to another poll with the same result for the herd creatures.
Er, can’t think, what did they say last time? I’ll have what everyone else is having, for example.
Easily manipulated by disreputable pollsters who might succumb to the temptation to lead the “Herd” into political directions of their choosing.
Don’t know how you can think that watching Tony squirm would not be pretty. Such Schadenfreude!
Gavin Moodie - I agree, I think this Houston report could be a boon for the govt rather than a negative, it will show the Govt willing to compromise for a solution that saves lives, while Abbott is playing politics and saying no.
East coast conservatives lead by that marvel Campbell Newman, not only getting some bad press but having a direct negative effect on the quality of voters lives. It’s just what the country needs a good taste of christian conservatism in action before the next federal election. Open some eyes. I read the Brisbane dailies everyday. The amount of squealing is very promising.
With the economy steadily on the improve, the carbon tax dome and gloom merchant is left standing without even a pair of budgie smugglers to hide his shame.
And with the “asylum seekers cause cracks in our boats” story floating around, more voters are going to realise the Liberal party are treating the public like a pack of idiots.
It might be a good time to slap some cash on the ALP while the odds of a re-elected government are pretty long.
Labor still have the media to contend with.
yesterday the ABC allowed Tony Abbott to waffle for a full 5 minutes with his false claim that the Carbon price was responsible for electricity rises.
Not once was the obvious question asked of him : how can a Carbon price brought in a few weeks ago have caused steadily rising prices over the past few years?
It perfectly exampled the echo chamber that now passes for reporting.
While an Opposition Leader should be allowed to put an opinion, to be given a free 5 minute advert where he inanely repeats the message a dozen different ways is not news : it’s a press release.
“Joe Hockey thought he was engaged in a contest to impress voters with his high-mindedness (difficult when most voters are unlikely to have heard of either) rather than to connect with them.”
Hilarious to hear you say this after so much criticism of the “dumbing down” of politics.
McFly Marty - It isn’t one or the other - you can engage people and speak intelligently.
At least one of the few independent political analysts, Laura Tingle, has nailed Abbott. But with the coverage of most of the MSM it would be a miracle if Labor finds any positive public response on any complex policy issue — the avoidance of which is the main, the only, strategy of Abbott (BK is wrong, there is no error on the part of his staff, they know too well he cannot handle actual policy).
WE DO NOT HAVE A FRIGGING BOAT CRISIS. WHAT IS WRONG WITH ALL YOU MORONS.
As expected my first comment was moderated.
At the risk, nay certainty of invoking the Crikey moderator again, here are a bunch of other headlines from the AFR today. One would think the business world would want facts and reality on which to base their world view and presumably business decisions, rather than this relentless negative partisan pap. (Yes, this Australian media lack of neutral reportage has to be part of the problem with Australian business.)
Slow NBN rollout a wake-up call
10 AUGUST 2012
.
Power price focus boosts business risk: RBC
10 AUGUST 2012 | ANGELA MACDONALD-SMITH
.
Big states challenge NBN’s opt-out provision
09 AUGUST 2012 | DAVID RAMLI
.
Gillard power price claims ‘a fabrication’: Abbott
09 AUGUST 2012 | JAMES MASSOLA AND MARCUS PRIEST
.
NBN hopelessly behind targets
09 AUGUST 2012 | PAUL FLETCHER
.
Union threat to innovation
09 AUGUST 2012 | THE AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
.
NBN turmoil looms. After that, it’s murky
09 AUGUST 2012 | TONY BOYD
.
The dimming down of the NBN vision
09 AUGUST 2012 | PAUL SMITH
.
Get used to waiting for fast fibre
09 AUGUST 2012 | JENNIFER HEWETT
.
Slow progress ensures an NBN rethink
09 AUGUST 2012 | TONY BROWN
.
Energy market gridlocked
09 AUGUST 2012 | GEOFF WINESTOCK
.
Oakeshott to press NBN Co for answers
09 AUGUST 2012 | DAVID RAMLI
.
Slow rollout endangers NBN
08 AUGUST 2012 | JOHN MCDULING
.
NBN costings balloon
PRINT: 08 AUGUST 2012 | PAGE 51 |
.
Swan accused of using Costello rule to mask NBN costs
08 AUGUST 2012 | JOHN MCDULING
.
PM hypocritical over energy: Coalition
07 AUGUST 2012 | JAMES MASSOLA
The MSM has its own issues right now. Fairfax wont have any journalists left, and News wont have any left that aren’t before the courts.
@Marilyn, no, we shouldn’t.
Federal Election 2013: ALP by nine seats. You heard it here first.
Marilyn - I was talking about perceptions, it is perceived there is a crisis, therefore the perception that the Govt is trying to fix it but Abbott is risking lives will be good for the govt.
Michael R James - It isn’t going to be easy but there is some hope.
Damien - I hope you are right but I don’t suppose you have anything to support the theory?
Syria has a crisis. We have a bunch of whiney babies lying to us.
Prediction based on an impending Abbott stall due to his evident superficiality and the arrogant coalition slash and burn approach after NSW and Qld services which will, for the first time since the early 1990s, actually show the Coalition’s true colours. these state governments will cost people money. It appears Ted Ballieu appears the smartest of the lot of them - for pity’s sake.
Damien - The logic seems sound but Abbott’s superficiality has been on show for some time and no one seems to care.
I do agree with the benefits of having Liberal govt’s in the three big states, the voters will see the libs for what they are (big TAFE cuts in Vic for example) and have someone other than the ALP to blame.
And none of the media morons seem to understand that people have a legal right to sail to anywhere they want without interference from us.
Michael R James,
I still don’t understand how Michael Stutchbury got to be the Editor-in-Chief of the Financial Review.
Dear Michael James
Quoting the AFR id hardly the basis for reasoned argument.
I think a later story in today’s newsletter should help you
“Conroy says Whirlpool more accurate than AFR
“Communications Minister Stephen Conroy has delivered a fiery tirade against the media for constantly repeating misconceptions about Labor’s National Broadband Network project, singling out the Financial Review newspaper for particular ridicule and recommending that those interested in accuracy read broadband forum Whirlpool.” — Delimiter
“
Fascinating to watch Bernard Keane’s lack of political judgement in full flight.
(i) “the Springsteen stuff enabled Swan, and Labor, to get a cut-through message out about its values in a way that just another speech… would never have done.”
As with Emerson’s infantile performance, banality was the “message”. Bemusement. WTF were they thinking?
Sure, that’s matched by the Libs towering intellectual, North Shore Hockey, scourge of the “Age of Entitlement”, muttering about Adam Smith and JS Mill (or was it JS Smith and Madam Ill?), but Joe’s pretensions are neither here nor there, or indeed anywhere.
(ii) “Gillard followed up with the electricity speech this week.”
She did indeed. And immediately appeared hypocritical and opportunistic. After 5 years of steep power rises on the ALP’s watch, and right after a 10% price increase caused by the carbon tax, Gillard discovers States’ Rorts. They were behind the sofa all the time! Brilliant.
Of course there’s some truth in it, but belatedly stumbling into the arcane and corrupt world of power pricing is truly, deeply unconvincing.
Just another political blunder by a tone-deaf PM…
And it wouldn’t be B. Keane piece without a vacuously optimistic conclusion:
“Maybe at some point she’ll be able to get the pressure off her and onto her opponent. The result may not be pretty.”
The ALP is the government, remember? Abbott is just an Opposition leader.
Newspoll showed that things looked up for the ALP when Gillard vanished for several weeks. A 5% jump in primary vote is well outside the margin of error, contrary to Keane’s belief.
michael r james
Posted Friday, 10 August 2012 at 2:57 pm
Thanks for that michael.
It shows just how biased one of our so-called better media sources is and how difficult it is for progressive politics to get a fair run in this country.
We have gotta do somethin’ about the media in this country.
Marilyn Sheppard sails straight past the moderator with her thoughtful contribution.
“WE DO NOT HAVE A FRIGGING BOAT CRISIS. WHAT IS WRONG WITH ALL YOU MORONS”
Don’t you love Marilyn.
Micheal
Are you really dillusional enough to think that the AFR is not tailoring its editorial towards its readers by reflecting a government bad business good point of view, just in the same way as other outlet do in relation to their readership market. The Age ( Melbourne good, Sydney bad; and anywhere 25 km form the CBD bad), the Australian (wish we were America, or Australia in the 60s), the News Limited tabloids (lots of footy, why are they wasting money on education)
Michal R James
You still don’t understand how Michael Stutchbury got to be the Editor-in-Chief of the Financial Review.
A: I believe it is done alphabetically
Marilyn, we may have a boat / rescue crisis very shortly as the Navy taxi service has been banned from sailing in seas 2.5 meters or above. It appears our ships are falling apart. So if any illegal boats try their trip and strike large seas, they are totally on their own.
PS. The winter electricity bills are just arriving, so we wait a few weeks and see what the Govs polling is like. As for gold platted infrastructure, one Victorian distributor has a class action pending for not spending enough on infrastructure, and possibly causing bush fires.
THE PAV at 4:10 pm
Conroy is correct but he — and your post — rather proves the point. How many people are going to turn to Whirlpool for their information? Only the tiny few and in fact those who already understand the issues. The point is that the MSM presents a blatantly distorted picture It is depressing that the business press is no different. If I was in business I would want to be reading NPOV (Neutral Point of View) articles based on best expert interpretatoin of fact and evidence — ie. like George Megalogenis and a few others (Ross Gittins, Virrender). I am a scientist and it would be equivalent to journals publishing a politically partisan view of a scientific issue. It wouldn’t do your scientific understanding or ultimately career any good.
I know it is commonly held that the AFR is one-eyed in its coverage (and that its editor and Alan Mitchell and its rollcall of IPA OpEd page fillers, and NewsLtd transfers — Hewitt, Massola — are ditto, sometimes laughably so) but because I don’t read it regularly, it seems so shocking just to see the extent of it. And of course it is telling that one of the more worthwhile and fearless writers on economics (Quiggin) has been practically blacklisted by the Australian press (sacked from the AFR by Stutchbury) and now only appears on blogs and recycled occasionally on Crikey etc.
Appalling and embarrassing for our major (only) national business paper. Makes you wonder about the reliability of the pure quantitative information (stock prices, reports etc) that it publishes.
Dear Michael
I think we agree with each other on this.
What gets me is that newspapers are dying, circulation is declining yet what do they do?
Well in News Ltd’s case they alienate a significant propostion of their potential customers by being so unbalanced. This is simply bad business and quite obvious so why do they do it.
I assume in News Ltd’s case it is to pursue Murdochs desire for political influence. Personally I think the minor shareholders hould sue him for the lossin in revenue and value of the assets.
@Micheal , I guess if your a scientist, the utterly appaling presentation of climate research by newscorp would count? The rapidity in which they threw Mullin’s history as a (admittedly one of the rare examples of a principled one) skeptic down the memory hole so they could paint him as just another part of the vast left wing conspiracy was astonishing. But to be honest I’ve long given up the hope that maybe newscorps presentation of the issue is anything other than deliberately dishonest. The circumstantial evidence that the talking heads in that organization know full well we have a problem on our hands but are actually choosing to report otherwise just seems to mount, *in my opinion*.
We’re being sold down the gurgler , when it comes to press honesty.
There is no such thing as an illegal boat, anyone is allowed to sail. there is no requirement for the navy to hunt down and stop refugee vessels unless they are in danger.
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Abbott wasn’t let down by his own people! I’ve been observing him for some time, and he never does any research himself. He’s shown on many occasions that he just opens his mouth with whatever thought bubble he has, and so many times he should be picked up for it, but of course he isn’t - not in msm anyway! As I’ve said before, if he’s aRhodes Scholar I should win the Nobel Prize for rational thought! He’s just lazy and totally hopeless, knowing that his supporters in the media won’t challenge him. If a Labor person, let alone a Green’s person came out with the nonsense that Abbott does, the media would be on top of them in a flash!
The nonsense the ALP is carrying on re the Greens and Coalition over the ‘problem’ with asylum seekers is rubbish. The Greens are just following ALP Policy which Federal Labor will ignore for political purposes - they’re disgusting!
Countries bordering Syria are accepting thousands of people fleeing terror and death every day. They’re not having fits over this - they just get on with it! So should we! We have plans for 190,000 migrants in the next year? What on earth is the hysteria for over 6 or 7,000? It’s total bs and as racist as hell! Shame on them both - Coalition & Labor!
Wouldn’t it be a good idea if we tried to ensure that these people could remain safely in their own countries - they don’t want to flee, most love their home country. We spend the money and have emphasis on the wrong things? Gee, even a kid could work that out! (I hereby apologise to most kids!).
@SHEPHERDMARILYN
“…there is no requirement for the navy to hunt down and stop refugee vessels unless they are in danger.”
There is a requirement for border security to intercept refugee vessels. It is required to safeguard Australia from diseases such as Tuberculosis by giving health checks to the people on board.
“It also comes at a time when the government has near-utopian unemployment, inflation and interest rate figures to boast of.”
John Howard had those too…
It didn’t work.
Steve, hunting them down is not about giving them health checks. Jesus wept, there is no requirement that says we have to intercept anyone.
After all swine flu came here on an ocean liner.
John64
Howard made the boastful statement that interest rates would always be lower with the coalition and in 2007 that statement came back to bite him . Ridiculous comment to make in any case seeing as rates reside with the RBA . A decade is about the best a party can expect to get , always baggage and its time after ten years .
The Houston Report will be fire starter material. He has zero credibility here on this issue, and is is being PAID to delivery an OUTCOME that GILLARD wants. I bet she had a draft today and if OK will be released on Monday.
People see through this.
Meanwhile the largest boatload arrives today
I got my power bill, with the Carbon Tax inpact in big red letters.
Only a small percentage of people watch the News, much fewer listen to Gillard or mute the Tv when she is talking, so the first they will see is the big red letters on their bill.
This is why she is panicing
Becoming shrill there, SB? The careful coalition script is starting to fray under the onslaught of facts.
oh, and *twit*
@SHEPHERDMARILYN
How is responding to refugees distress calls a form of hunting?
As to your crazy claim that there is no requirement to intercept refugee boats I will repeat it again for you…
There is a requirement for border security to intercept refugee vessels. It is required to safeguard Australia from diseases such as Tuberculosis by giving health checks to the people on board.
Suzanne, let me make this clear for your small brain.
Asylum seekers are ALLOWED TO COME HERE ON BOATS.
All the way down to 9.02 before the dimwit surface. Suzanne is panicing some sort of fried cake frosting? Oh and I see Frank Campbell has woken up from his nap.
@ Marilyn Sheppard
“Asylum seekers are ALLOWED TO COME HERE ON BOATS”
WRONG they are not asylum seekers they are fraudsters. The ones that come from Indonesia could stay there. They are out of the war zone etc.
They come here ONLY cause our stupid government gives them welfare, housing, internet, smokes, TV, education etc etc etc.
I realise you are one eyed and closed ear on this, but this is a fact
Suzanne, you have no evidence (sigh - again) for your outrageous defamatory claim do you. You don’t have figures from DIAC or DFAT about the number of people who come here by boats that have their claims accepted or rejected, you don’t know how many people get jobs within the first year do you? And for good measure you don’t even understand the point Marilyn makes!
Like a four year old (or Pauline Hanson) you just say stuff you want to be true. Once again you amply demonstrate what a dope you are.