The reality behind Jac Nasser’s capital strike threat
Jac Nasser’s lash at the government today stands as one of the more petulant pieces of rhetorical excess from the mining industry.
As Crikey explained a fortnight ago, business claims about the rising cost of operating in Australia have no foundation when it comes to the costs governments have most control over — wage pressures, via the industrial relations system, and tax levels.
Nasser insists there is something unbalanced about the industrial relations system that leaves “management being unable to operate its business in a fair and consistent way.” This is a furphy — the current Fair Work system mimics Peter Reith’s Workplace Relations Act on the extent to which unions can raise “management prerogative” as legitimate basis for industrial dispute.
Nasser does have a point about rising costs for the mining industry — but the issue is, whose responsibility is it? The industry is undergoing an unprecedented boom in an economy with minimal spare capacity. RBA deputy governor Phil Lowe provided some context for the industry’s expansion earlier this week. Mining and related activity grew by 12% last year and is expected to grow by a similar level over the next two years. That sort of growth invariably leads to cost pressures as the industry competes internally and with other sectors for resources, driving up the cost of labour (and the willingness of workers to engage in industrial action for better wages and conditions), the cost of business inputs and the cost of energy.
That’s one of the ironies of Nasser’s lament about high costs — his business benefits from high commodity prices for products such as iron ore, but concomitant with that is high energy prices, which increase the cost of his business inputs. Nasser, in fact, is fortunate that the strong Australian dollar has shielded BHP from the full impacts of higher oil prices over the past two years. And BHP, like all miners, has benefited from the way the high dollar, and the RBA’s willingness in 2011 to lift interest rates, has clobbered the non-mining sector of the economy.
In short, when Nasser complains about the high cost of mining in Australia, the guilty party isn’t in Canberra — or in Perth and Brisbane, where governments lifted royalty levels — but in his own boardroom and those of BHP’s competitors in the mining industry, who are driving the biggest ever resources boom in this country.
That’s particularly the case when you look at BHP’s own record when it comes to wasting money. There’s the losses of about $4.8 billion on the Ravensthorpe lateritic nickel project in Western Australia (and the associated refinery in north Queensland near Townsville, which BHP later sold to Clive Palmer, who has made good profits from it). Apart from mea culpas at annual meetings and investment conferences, BHP and its cheer squads in the media and business haven’t highlighted this botched investment. But it there has been a huge capital and opportunity cost for BHP.
And then there’s the $US26 billion the company has invested in the US tight shale gas businesses (gas and liquids). BHP has caught the top of this still expanding business that is changing the US economy. It has seen gas prices plunge as production has expanded (and the fourth warmest winter on record cut domestic gas use, which outweighed a rise in consumption by US power companies). BHP has changed tack and will boost production of liquids (which are light oil), but every other company in shale gas is doing the same and a glut has developed in the US oil market, which has seen prices there fall to less than $US92 a barrel (helped by the worries about Greece) while the price of Brent crude in London (is the major global marker price these days), has remained about $US109 a barrel.
Investors now widely expect BHP to take an impairment charge of several billion dollars on its US gas play (which could be reversed if prices improve in 2013, as forecasts suggest). But no one other than the management and board of BHP forced the company to invest so much money in the US gas business, just as no one other than the board and management has forced the company to invest so much in WA iron ore, and at such a rapid pace.
Rio Tinto, another moaner about costs, unions and taxes in Australia, is in the same position as BHP in iron ore: investing tens of billions of dollars to boost iron ore production and, with BHP, protect its market leading position in China and Asia as a huge, low-cost producer, before rival projects in Australia and elsewhere come on stream and threaten that dominance.
And like BHP with Ravensthorpe, Rio has a poor investment decision (a major blunder that almost ruined the company) in the $A44 billion buy of Alcan at the height of the first minerals boom in 2007, just as the GFC was starting. That excessive price is still holding back Rio’s productivity and profitability. It wrote $US8.4 billion off 2011’s record profit because of the fall in the value of its aluminium businesses (and some of its own assets owned before the Alcan buy).
No one is forcing BHP or Rio, or other companies to invest heavily in Australia. If there is a concern with costs and projects become uneconomic then they should be cancelled, deferred or restructured to protect shareholders (who, after all, own the company, not the board or the management).
And there’s the rub — if a Labor government and aggressive trade unions are driving investors away from Australia as Nasser claims, where’s the evidence? Both actual expenditure and estimated long-term expenditure in mining have shown no signs of flagging since recovery from the financial crisis — not because of the mining tax, and not because of the introduction of the Fair Work Act, and not because of the carbon tax. The boom continues — to the chagrin of other, trade-exposed sectors of the economy.
If there’s some type of capital strike in the offing, as Nasser claims, there’s no evidence of it. Indeed, there might be more than a few large manufacturing companies who’d love nothing more than to see the back of some big miners, in the hope it might put some additional down pressure on the dollar.
It is clear from yesterday’s speech from Nasser, and a similar one in the US by CEO Marius Kloppers that BHP’s grandiose $US80 billion expansion plan is dead. No one forced the company to plan such a heady expansion, at such a huge, hard to grasp cost. It was a mark of the hubris that gripped the BHP boardroom and management suites, just as the rapid pace of expansion in iron ore in particular has been driven by desire to protect its market position. Rio’s act of hubris was the Alcan deal. Neither company and its management and board has yet owned up to admitting that many of the financial pressures on it are of their own making.
This is being compounded by a fall in global commodity prices for the third year in a row as Greece and the wobbly euro rear their ugly heads. You would have thought that last year’s re-run and the attempts by China to slow its economy would have forced the boards of both companies to pull their heads in. That is now happening, but just as Europe reaches a dramatic crisis and China’s bull run has slowed to a walk and could fall further.
Even though BHP and Rio are financially strong, their expansion plans have exposed them to significant financial pressures beyond their control. Blaming costs in Australia, or the state of the labour market here, or governments of either persuasion at the state and federal level, are strawmen. The problems are to be found at the top of both companies and the ambitious expansion plans of the two groups.












The whine industry - does anything whinge louder money?
Rinehart, Forrester, Palmer - Murdoch (vs the Left too), with his naggerphone?
sorry … the “whining industry”.
As a BHP shareholder, I wish Mr Nasser was more concerned at the hundreds of millions of dollars wasted on merchant bankers and the like on the abortive takeover escapades they’ve been involved in over the last number of years..
Nasser’s board is going to decide on capital investments of $30 billion this year alone. When people like him stand up and say that Australia is becoming a less attractive place to invest, it is smart to listen to what they say.
You can join Wayne Swan and write him off as a greedy billionaire miner if you like but it is likely that what he is saying is really happening and as the frenzy that is coal and iron ore prices eases, it is Australia that will flatten first while mining projects in Africa and South America continue to prosper.
Swan is utterly about the short term, as are you. Nasser is not.
That’s right David, Why would Jack tell us anything but the absolute truth?
That’s just rediculous, SBH.
How can anyone’s opinion, especially yours, be bestowed the honorific “absolute truth”.
You’ve been watching too many “evil corporation” movies.
By relying on fly-in fly-out workers stuck in high city price housing mining is crating the asset price inflation which is raising their costs. Afree-market, with competitionwould present miners with the lowest costs but price fixing cartels fix their wage anf fuel costs at the high levels of which they complain. Mining can create a rational on-site housing solution one contrlled as the mines are by engineers not bankers who who own the mortgages and controlthe provision and cost of housing in the cities.
sorry David, I looked in the dictionary (it’s a big book with all the words - in order even!) and I couldn’t find the word ‘redicuolous’.
To clarify - Jack Nasser’s claims have no validity. There is no evidence that the IR system does any of the things he says it does. There’s no evidence that we have extreme IR laws. In fact the mining industry has less IR restrictions because of years of attacks on workers rights. It’s real industrial problem is that a rationing of labour is causing an increase in price - that’s basic economics not IR law. Instead of addressing ways this through sound modern management, Jack would rather we all just copped a lower price for our labour and our raw materials.
There is evidence that his company has just made mistakes that cost it buckets. By way of giving the very large figures some kind of context the $4.8 Bill dumped at Ravensthorpe is equal to Victoria’s largest export category - international education. Imagine what would happen to a state government that killed the entire value of its largest export.
Behind these calls there is an aberrant philosophy that companies should always and only act in the interests of the shareholder. Even if that were true it should be stunningly obvious (as it was to Adam Smith) that governments much restrain such unfettered desire and harness it to the desires and needs of a broader community. But I prefer to challenge the premise. Any human activity that doesn’t have as it’s ultimate goal alleviating want and need is wrong. You can’t make yourself alone rich at the expense of the land and it’s people. Companies, like citizens have an obligation to act in a way that is to the good of society not just to the good of a very small number? When Nasser speaks he does so from an aberrant, anti-humanist, exclusionary point of view. Why should I take any notice? Because he’ll pull out his money? Well even if that were so - and it’s an oft made threat rarely implemented, is that how public policy should be made? I’m big you’re small, do what I say or else I’ll hurt you?
Just cause Jack wants the world to run more to the advantage of the very rich doesn’t mean that the rest of us should kowtow like serfs and let him.
SBH,
Don’t you love the class war. Keep the red flag flying, mate.
So Jac, are you saying the $2 billion per year the mining industry receive in deisel fuel subsidies from taxpayers isn’t enough?
Jamil, are you aware that the mining industry does not actually receive and money from the government for its diesel use?
DH: You are stretching the meaning of rebate to mean only what you want it to mean.
When one class of user pays one price and another class of user, through government action, ie reduction or removal of a federal charge, pays another price, then there is a subsidy at work.
Not a cash rebated to the miners’ accounts, but a subsidy. Traditionally, this one has been called by many writers and not only JH a rebate.
So, a rebate it is, despite any previously applied narrower interpretation of the word.
From my perspective, I am happy for the diesel tax or whatever it may be called not to apply to users which are off road - mining and farmers and rail locomotives - but I very much am against any relaxation of the charge in relation to heavy road transport, but that’s another story.
I have nothing but pride in being a socialist David Hand,
You on the r other hand can’t even begin to address the substantive points in the argument.
What Nasser said, was - to quote Bill Shorten - a lie
John
Everyone is stretching the meaning of “subsidy” to mean what they want it to mean. In my view, the average reader will misunderstand the term “subsidy” in the way left elite anti-mining activists use it.
10 years ago, the price of coking coal was about $50 a tonne. Recently it has been $300 a tonne. Sometime in the next 20 years, it will be $50 a tonne. At that price, about half the coal mines operating today will close. Fuel excise rules were set up when the mining industry was not in a period of very high prices like it is today. It’s all very well for greedy left elite activists to take the windfall profits off miners to spend on their pet redistributive projects but the opportunity will not last for ever. We must be careful that the current resources boom is not used to dismantle commercial practices that have stood us in good stead for decades.
Fuel excise has always been spun as a “road tax” whare road users pay for their use of the roads. On that basis, fuel users who don’t use the roads, such as farmers, don’t pay fuel exise. In the 80’s and 90’s we all used to huff and puff about the downtrodden motorist subsidising the general consolidated government fund through paying a lot more fuel excise than is spent on roads. Fast forward to 2012, and everyone is piling into greedy miners for not contributing to this flagrant government rort.
I notice that a lot of letter writers to newspapers mock the miners as parties who will never go offshore. I can tell you that when the investment is gone, it won’t easily come back.
Ok, Fine, David.
We are actually agreeing about the appropriateness of keeping the exemption in place regarding diesel used in mining, and for the same reasons.
I’m not as sure as you that the miners will just roll up their swag and not come back.
I have recently done some mining-related work in Mongolia, where the Governemtnof Mongolia takes 34% ownership and one third of the seats on the board of the new mine, as well as setting a sunset clause of 30 years, after which the remaining 66% simply reverts to the GoM. No recompense for the $7B that Rio Tinto are putting on the table - nothing.
Australia are far, far, cheaper to do business with than that, yet there is a huge amount of new mining infrastructure being built there at present - coal mines, copper, silver, gold. You name it.
Rio’s deposit has 100 to 130 years life. They only get 2/3rds of the first 30 years of that. Gina Rhinehart, if subjected to the same conditions, would have lost her inheritance decades ago, as also the miners of most leases for iron ore, coal, nickel, copper and alumina miners in Australia.
Say whatever you like about those nasty leftwing enemies that you have sprayed about: they are pussycats by comparison with the heavy hitters of the world and Australia, with or without a mining tax is very much easier to do business with.
Would you be happy for every contract placed with an overseas supplier (eg Caterpillar, or power generation equipment, or just about anything at all) to be subject to a 15% tax? Or for training clauses to be included in every miner’s lease requiring training of at least half of the total workforce at all steps along the way, including during construction? Rio, BH-B and the other bug boys put up with these types of conditions elsewhere, then complain loudly when they find that, because their own training efforts are so weak and ineffective, that the pool of trained employees is drying up and expensive.
Not only that, but the unintelligent mainstream media laps all of this up and places it on the front page as though the sky is falling in Australia.
Well, the sky is not falling and your concerns about miners packing up and leaving Australia are not justified. These same miners are happy to be bled white elsewhere and are on a far better wicket in Oz, and they know it.
One thing the miners do very well, though, is to manipulate our consistently negative mainstream journalists and politicians and scare the be-jeesus out of a population of lemmings when a few facts would so simply blow their smokescreen.
So, keep it up. Spend your time and others’ worrying about the difference between a subsidy and an exemption from paying a tax which most other businessfolk pay every day. Keep worrying about the falling sky and then, when the predicted departure of the miners doesn’t happen, worry about something else and forget that you ever were so wrong as to think that the pigs would ever leave the Australian trough.
Ok, Fine, David.
We are actually agreeing about the appropriateness of keeping the exemption in place regarding diesel used in mining, and for the same reasons.
I’m not as sure as you that the miners will just roll up their swag and not come back.
I have recently done some mining-related work in Mongolia, where the Government of Mongolia takes 34% ownership and one third of the seats on the board of the new mines, as well as setting a sunset clause of 30 years, after which the remaining 66% simply reverts to the GoM. No recompense for the $7+B that Rio Tinto are putting on the table - nothing.
Australia are far, far, cheaper to do business with than that, yet there is a huge amount of new mining infrastructure being built in Mongolia at present - coal mines, copper, silver, gold. You name it.
Rio’s deposit has 100 to 130 years life. They only get the benefit of 2/3rds of the first 30 years of that. Gina Rhinehart, if subjected to the same conditions, would have lost her inheritance decades ago, as also the miners of most leases for iron ore, coal, nickel, copper and alumina miners in Australia.
Say whatever you like about those nasty leftwing enemies that you have sprayed about: they are pussycats by comparison with the heavy hitters of the world. Australia, with or without a mining tax is very much easier to do business with than Mongolia, Indonesia, Chile, Brazil and many other nations.
Would you be happy for every contract placed with an overseas supplier (eg Caterpillar, or power generation equipment, or just about anything at all) to be subject to a 15% tax? Or for training clauses to be included in every miner’s lease requiring training of at least half of the total workforce at all steps along the way, including during construction? Rio, BHP-B and the other big boys put up with these types of conditions elsewhere, yet in Oz they complain loudly when they find that, because their own training efforts are so weak and ineffective, the pool of trained employees is drying up and becoming very expensive. That’s not a surprise. It is a symptom of poor manpower planning throughout the mining industry in this country.
Not only that, but the unintelligent mainstream media laps all of this up and places it on the front page as though the sky is falling in Australia.
Well, the sky is not falling and your concerns about miners packing up and leaving Australia are not justified. These same miners are happy to be bled white elsewhere and are on a far better wicket in Oz, and they know it.
One thing the miners do very well, though, is to manipulate our consistently negative mainstream journalists and politicians and scare the be-jeesus out of a population of lemmings when a few facts would so simply blow their smokescreen.
So, keep it up. Spend your time and others’ worrying about the nit-picking, meaningless, semantic difference between a subsidy and an exemption from paying a diesel tax which most other businessfolk pay every day. Keep worrying about the falling sky and then, when the predicted departure of the miners doesn’t happen, worry about something else and forget that you ever were so wrong as to think that the pigs would ever leave the Australian trough.
Apologies for the double post, which was accidental. The second one is easier to read.
jb
JB - great response to some earlier posts. Your info about Mongolia shows just what a load of nonsense the big miners try to get away with here in Oz.
Resources company boards make investment decisions all the time. I generally believe that these decisions are rational. They don’t always pay off but I think that in general, they are rational. So Rio’s decision to invest in Mongolia, whatever terms they may have, is commercially rational.
A group of Crikey commenters may well think that they have more insight than those boards and your view seems to be that they are playing politics and the uncertainty about the shifting government policy will have no effect on whether or not investment goes offshore. I don’t share your certainty.
David Hand simply won’t leave a losing argument, will he?
All opinion and no fact, this could drag out for ever, complete with straw man type argument.
Straw man #1: Nobody was discussing whether corporations make investment decisions all the time. There is no debate on that topic. The debate was, amongst other things, about the recent statements from the CEO’s of BHPB and Rio regarding the cost of doing business in Australia. Australia is demonstrated to be a much more amenable recipient of mining investment.
Straw man#2: Rio is or is not commercially rational. No, David, I did not say that Rio’s investment in Mongolia, or anywhere esles, for that matter, is not rational.
Straw man #3: Crikey readers have more insight into Rio’s investment decision than the corporate boards. That was not stated or inferred.
Where there is at least some agreement about the subject of this thread is where DH addresses the issue of corporate boards playing politics. Well, DH, when international miners - the two largest in the game - play politics on the Australian stage, it is entirely relevant and appropriate to check whether their statements, on this occasion, are balanced and reasonable. NB: the political statements regarding the cost of labour. Well, DH, I pointed out exactly why I am sure that the resource giants have it better here than they have elsewhere, and thus why their threats about withdrawing from Australian operations are hollow, very hollow.
I note that DH does not share my certainty on this subject. Such is life, I can get over this little spat between one who has only opinion to support his case and my recent, personal experience and certain knowledge to the contrary.
Fact-free assertions and straw man arguments are irrelevant, regardless of the strength of the unsubstantiated belief of those who use them.
John,
The difference of opinion here in my view is whether or not resources companies are more likely to shift investment in new mines offshore. They are saying that they are more likely to. You seem to have indisputable facts that they won’t do it.
Facts. Don’t you love them. Those of a different view have mere opinions. We have facts. And the moral high ground as well. We are right. Others are playing politics. We are righteous. They are unrighteous. We are armed with indisputable truth.
John, you’re learning from Julia. She does that a lot as well. It’s very offputting.
DH needs to get a bit of perspective.
He has come here with only assertions - nothing more.
He has failed to actually analyse what is going on.
The last time this crew of mining CEO’s launched a scare campaign, they threatened the same flight of capital. Which never happened. Now they are complaining that their own escalating capital expenditure programs have soaked up all the labour and, prompted by last week’s silly utterances from the Opposition’s spokesman for treasury matters about Australia needing to match the industrial conditions of Korea, are simply following the trail laid for them like dogs on a scent.
There was no flight of capital last time and there will be none this time. Asserting that I or others are driven by left wing tendencies is simply a waste of DH’s time and that of the readers. What matters here is the game which is being played, and it is 100% politics, with a bit of toadying up to the Opposition, in case they are lucky enough to win the next election. I have demonstrated why such threats are hollow. I have now pointed to a recent example where these same foreigners previously set out to meddle in Australian politics with less than pure motives, and in the lead-up to an election at that!
Talk about rude!
Sadly, DH and others have been sucked in by Joe Hockey’s the little game of groundless fearmongering which is being played.
Truly, the miners don’t mean it.
DH: Have a Bex and a good lie down - the sky is not going to fall. It’s all a charade. The miners are here for the long term.
John,
I concede I only have assertions, nothing more. The business section of the SMH used to be a source of information but you’ve been to Mongolia so you, unlike the SMH, have indisputable facts.
In this morning’s business section of the SMH. “Doubts over Rio expansion”. Quote, “Rio Tinto has raised questions about a major West Australian iron ore expansion as rising Australian development costs and calls for more returns to shareholders lead to a more cautious pace” unquote.
Yet another 100% political scare campaign from miners who aren’t
going anywhare. I’ll have that Bex and lie down now. After all, John’s been to Mongolia and has the facts, unlike those uninformed opinion holders on the board of Rio Tinto.
More ininformed assertions in the absence of facts. This time from BMA spokesman Steve Dumble commenting on the strikes about to go forward in BMA’s central Queensland mines.
“Obviously the industrial action that we’ve had up to this point has had a very material impact on our business, on its profitability.
“More particularly it’s having knock-on effects to the state, revenues to the state, to the community and obviously to our employees as well.”
Yep, ininformed opinion says mines might close. oops, one already has. But don’t listen to me. I have “failed to analyse actually what’s going on.” John, on the other hand, has been to Mongolia and has come back armed with facts. For example he has an “indisputable fact” that “Truly, the miners don’t mean it”.
Aren’t you glad you’ve all got John’s Mongolia based facts to comfort you?