Gillard’s to-do list to achieve a miracle comeback
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Julia Gillard needs a political miracle to recover. She is disliked by voters, they don’t trust her, and her prime ministerial persona is shaped around political incompetence and breaching commitments. And she faces an opponent who, while lacking any policy credibility and popular support, is a master political tactician. Miracles do occur. But all Gillard and her advisers can do is try to create the conditions for a miracle. This is what she needs to do … Use the required reshuffle to properly target her frontbench The departure of Kevin Rudd opens up the foreign ministry but the real priority is sharpening the government’s economic message. If Wayne Swan, excellent Treasurer and poor prosecutor of the government’s credentials, is to remain, then Penny Wong should be moved from Finance and a hard hitter installed there, someone who can take the attack to the opposition hard, and do it in the House of Representatives. Chris Bowen was touted as the man for the job before he was dispatched to the purgatory of Immigration. What better demonstration of unifying magnanimity than to move Bowen to Finance. Robert McClelland can now be safely let go and his absurd hodge-podge of a portfolio banished into the realm of Labor’s funnier ideas (John Kerin as Treasurer, Mark Latham as anything). Stephen Smith presumably returns to Foreign Affairs, once again subjecting Defence to the sort of ministerial turnover that enables holdouts, reactionaries and spendthrifts in that portfolio to prosper. It might be worth moving Simon Crean to Foreign Affairs instead, given his trade expertise. Overhaul the PMO The reshuffle should also involve shifting Don Russell from Greg Combet’s mega-portfolio to the PMO, which would be bad news for Ben Hubbard, but Hubbard’s arrival has failed to turn the Gillard office around. Russell has plenty of experience as chief of staff, amongst other roles. But it might involve a substantial pay cut given Russell’s current secretarial salary. Realise less is more Gillard should also aim to talk less and communicate more. For all her evident understanding of the trap of trying to manage the media cycle, she is still incessantly churning out announceables, holding door stops and photo opportunities and trying to talk people around. She might be better off adopting the rule that she only speaks when she has something significant to say. The rebuttal is that that merely allows space for Tony Abbott to set the agenda, but the government has been hopelessly ineffective at dealing with him anyway, and its efforts to do so merely look like they’re obsessed with him. In any event, given how unpopular he is, the government should encourage Abbott to be as vocal as he wants, since it is likely to merely reinforce existing perceptions of him. Don’t breach any more commitments And the policy priority must now be the budget surplus. For a Prime Minister with a reputation for breaching commitments, delivering a surplus is crucial to what’s left of her reputation with voters. No matter the economic circumstances, everything else is, politically, subordinate to the commitment Gillard inherited from Rudd and then made her own, to produce a surplus in 2012-13. Fortunately the economy looks like not throwing any impediments in the way of that goal. All of this of course assumes that Gillard finds a way to lose her remarkable capacity to bungle something the moment anything starts going right. If nothing else, the leadership contest has, for the moment, wiped the slate clean. But one significant stuff-up, and the Prime Minister will be right back where she was: untrusted and disliked by the electorate, a heavy weight on her party’s primary vote, incapable of making Labor competitive. |
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27 Comments
Give it a rest Bernard, we can read this at the Australian.
That’s better Bernard. Much.
Bowen is perfectly suited for Finance … DIAC imbues a certain meanness that will greatly assist. Finenec and a heap of stuff that will keep him so busy dealing with public serbants and States no one will ever see his pursed lips again.
If I was doing any demonstrations of “making up” it would be to reward Anthony Albanese… a good man fallen into bad company.
Leave Rudd to the Queenslanders.
Good to see the result so large it snuffs the leadership talk for a while.
I don’t see the job of winning the next election as a “miracle” after all the govt has had a terrible week to fortnight and still improved in the polls, maybe people are starting to look at the alternative.
When the the govt delivers a surplus in May, followed by the MRRT and Carbon tax taking effect without the forecast negaitve consequences and then the govt announces plans forincreased spending on dental health and Education late in the year the polls should improve.
I would also like to point out yet another failed prediction by Geewizz
Finance and servants … sorry for typos.
“All of this of course assumes that Gillard finds a way to lose her remarkable capacity to bungle something the moment anything starts going right.”
Too right Bernard, this is the crux of the problem.
Also, lose the slogans. From “moving forward” to “getting the job done”. Just stop it!
BK (or Beaky to his fans) - the ability to hold to one single refrain for long periods does not make one a master political tactician. That’s not to deny that his discipline in this regard is exemplary but it will be interesting to see how he goes if the government gets a few more % points on the board.
I am also not sure that the recent management of the opposition’s position on surpluses points to a masterly tactician at work.
Keep in mind that an awful lot of people in his own party not to mention the great unwashed public are seriously worried about what he would do to Australia as PM.
Also keep in mind that he only won the leadership position by 1 vote and that was with 1 likely Turnbull supporter ill and unable to vote. Hardly an unassailable position.
Number one would be to get rid of curs like yourself. Old dry has been hacks with a hereditary hatred of females are about are irrelevant, Off you go to the murdocracy and lick kevins wounds for him
Please keep Smith in Defence, for the reason given.
van Onselen, who remains well connected to the Liberals (he used to work for Abbott), says that if Abbott goes he would be replaced by Morrison or Hockey and that Turnbull would get another go only after the Libs have tried them.
Well put Mark from Melbourne. Bernard’s constant refrain of
incompetency really doesn’t gell well with the facts and history.
Ms Gillard has not only successfully negotiated a minority government with the cross benches but maintained it, inspite of an unprecedented vitriolic opposition
and press gallery. And at the same time maintained a reformist policy
agenda.
History tells us that the last minority governments we have had in this
country were both of a conservative nature and collapsed within
months of their establishment. The last being in the early ’40s when
none of the present press gallery were alive.
Despite Gillard’s channelling of Maxwell Smart, the Coalition’s own channelling of the Three Stooges makes one despair for the country. The 3 are Abbott, Hockey and Robb on economics but could also include any one of Bishop, Pyne and Barnaby on any given day.
There she was, had her victory all wrapped up and then she made that silly little speech about what a great PM and leader Kevin had been. For Chrissakes Julia you’ve just done the guy over for the second time. We don’t expect you to like him and when you say how much you do we know you are lying. Whose benefit was this for? Not Rudd’s or ours. We all know what you think of him you and your supporters have been telling us in no uncertain detail all week. So suddenly we are back at the little government who lost its way. Stop the bullshit and people might just start believing you.
We are all human Pete Ormonde. My poor old arthritic figures have
their moments on these new fangle miniaturised keyboards. I learnt
my limited keyboard skills on an Underwood that you could use a
lump hammer on, and in fact on many occasions you were forced to.
I have full faith in the PM….if anyone can stuff it up royally there’s only two that can do it right, our Julia and Frank Spencer…some mothers do have them indeed…
I have disagreed with the Gillard Govt’s policies on several things, but I’m glad that she received such a strong vote. I think Rudd is a sociopath and hope he now keeps his word.
I can not even contemplate how revolting a Coalition Govt would be with Abbott - and not much better with Turnbull.
I’ve admired the strong way Julia Gillard has taken in the last few days. I agreed with the article Anne Summers wrote over the weekend - in the Sun Herald. Excellent!
@MIKE FLANAGAN - Re your keyboard. I have had RSI for 28 yrs, and did have a narrow keyboard which aggravated my condition to an awful degree. I purchased an ergonomic keyboard which is wireless, and so is my mouse. The keyboard is wider, the keys are thinner and bigger, and you don’t have to ‘hit’ them so hard. The improvement was almost instant.
You still need to take rests; sit correctly so that your back is straight etc. Microsoft explains the dangers of RSI on their website. Very informative indeed.
Sophie Mirabella obviously thinks highly of Julia Gillard. She thinks she is pre-Mensa.
@JOHN - Typical of the sexist and really nasty behaviour of the Opposition. She also referred to her as “the weather girl” in Parlt and had to withdraw. The persistent use of the word “she” has also been noticed by myself and others. . Cheryl Kernot referred to this practice on ABC News 24 today.
I’ve got really sick of the sexist/nasty/*itchy language used in both the media and in the Parlt. Language that didn’t happen with any of the males, including Howard. I violently opposed many of his policies as did others, but there weren’t any ‘male’ sexist barbs either in the Parlt or msm.
Anyone who thinks it’s OK should take a good look at themselves!
@Liz45
I think the mainstream media owes it to the Australian public to expose this nasty sexist behaviour.
It makes no difference that it is emanating from Liberal women rather than men.
It still needs to be exposed.
The MSM needs to name and shame the perpetrators.
S.M. lied about what she said after Albo called her out on it.
Tony Abbott shouldn’t tolerate S.M. deliberately lying to the parliament.
Obviously, S.M. lacks honesty and integrity.
Julia needs to start and continue talking in her normal, or even her sparring way rather than the wooden robotic way she’s been addressing the public ever since she shifted from minister to prime minister. The best bit about this stouch is that we got to see her talk like herself again, unfortunately briefly. A bit more of that, and the public will be on side.
@Liz45
I think the mainstream media owes it to the Australian public to expose this sexist behaviour. It makes no difference that it is emanating from Liberal women rather than men.
The MSM needs to name and shame the perpetrators. Albo was right. Truth matters. Tony Abbott shouldn’t tolerate frontbenchers who lack honesty and integrity.
@JOHN - In no way did I lay all the blame at the feet of Liberal women. The men, particularly Tony Abbott have been disgusting. One example of his attitude to women is his behaviour at the National Press Club when he and Nicola Roxon were to have a debate on Health. It was appalling. Watch his interviews either on TV or radio, and his attitude to Julia Gillard is one of disdain. As much to say, ‘you shouldn’t be here’? He has a double reason to be angry - 1) he has a divine right to rule, and 2) how can a mere woman steal my job? I have a divine right to rule. She doesn’t on TWO counts!
I don’t know if you do, but I listen to Question Time on a regular basis. The whole nasty/vicious/vitriolic/petty/demeaning manner that Abbott and his colleagues show is plainly revolting. some of the coverage in msm allow people, in fact, actively encourage people to use base and revolting comments aimed at Julia Gillard. I find it ironic, that it’s men who appeal to ‘play the ball not the man/woman’ are the very ones who behave in such a deplorable manner.
It’s interesting to take note - I’m not the only one. Even today Julia Gillard referred to what’s been happening via the media. She referred to the times that she was in the public eye, and “people got in my face and offered me a character assessment”
The perpetrators to be named and shamed are many in the media, in particular the Murdoch press. They are despicable and use editorial coverage as news. I find this reprehensible. In fact, tonight on ABC TV News, I was angry when Juanita ‘editorialised’ the lead in to the first story. I just yelled at the TV - “just read the news, don’t give an opinion or synopsis of what happened’? It drives me nuts.
Tony Abbott “tolerates frontbenchers” because he lay down the standards. Anything and everything is OK if you win. Fight as dirty as you want; rake over every perceived question of the integrity, dedication, bona fides etc of your Opposition - regardless of what you have to do to succeed!
This is what she needs to do …
1. Step down in favour of a leader whom most voters like, trust and will vote for.
Well, she screwed that one up.
Julia should ignore her spin doctors and just be herself. Just say what she thinks, bring some of that flair she shows in Parliament to her communications with the public. As needed, address voter concerns about her, for example alleged ‘lying’ on the Carbon Tax / ETS. Explain her vision for Australia the way that Paul Keating did. Another Keating trait she should adopt – don’t worry about popularity.
@Liz45
You are right.
It has pointed out often that the PM should be what the name means primus inter pares.
Let Ministers explain their portfolios, if competent, and if not get rid of them, do not, EVER, respond to the MM’s quip-if-the-day, speak less and communicate more effectively (nod to BK) and, for the Nation’s sake, concentrate on policy of vision, principle and value.
Defeat for this government in the next election is almost inevitable so why not ensure that the next 18months leaves a vast legacy of implemented legislation that improves the common weal?
Who knows, the electorate might be so impressed (and maybe even grateful) that the government will be returned - with an even larger number of Greens & Indies in both Chambers to keep the bastards focussed.
Mrs Mirabella interjecting—
Mr Albanese: I would ask the member for Indi to withdraw the unparliamentary remark.
…
Mrs Mirabella: Mr Speaker, I will assist you, but I do not understand why the word ‘Mensa’ is unparliamentary.
Mr Albanese: That is not what she said.
Mrs Mirabella: Yes, I did.
…
Mr Albanese: I accept that. We are all accountable for our own actions.
Thanks Liz45.
I will follow it up the next time I gather the strength
and fortitude to endure the ravages of our local centre of ‘civilisation’.
I have so far successfully spaced that undesired experience in multiple
monthly sequences.
I wish you well in your management of the RSI as your contributions
are valued and are important.
@JOHN - Indeed! Of course SM relied on the fact, that not only the blokes, but many women in the Parlt may not realise what that comment implied. I find her particularly objectionable. I’ve taken to watching Parlt on a regular basis, and the behaviour of the Opposition is just gross. I’ve heard comments that even the Speaker hasn’t, and this one was one of them.
I don’t mind the ‘cut and thrust’ or even supercilious, sarcasm even (yes, I know, the lowest form of wit) but it’s the general demeanour; the air of disrespect; that they think it’s OK to be really offensive, because they should be the govt.
What I learned yesterday was also interesting. During question time the Speaker ruled that questions pertaining to the Labor Party Leadership issue, or what Rudd or the PM said, or others, if it DID NOT relate to those peoples’ duties, then he would rule them out of order. He encouraged members to read pages 538/539 of the Standing Orders.
Even directly after Question Time, so you’d think that the ABC people would’ve taken note, they did NOT refer to it - even Lindsay? didn’t when she gave a brief summation of Question Time. That evening, both on the News and 7.30 there was NO mention that their questions(after the first 2) were ruled out of order. The Speaker has been consistent, even ruling part of a question ok but the second part was disallowed - for the above reason. I could only assume that the ABC did this deliberately so as to just infer the ‘tone’ of ALL the questions of the day. No mention that most on this issue were disallowed. This to me was a very blatant disregard for fact. More evidence of anti Julia Gillard bias. In fact, the more this goes on the harder I’m digging in to support her. I’m not in favour of several policies, but I certainly do NOT want the other mob!
@MIKE FLANAGAN - Thanks Mike. I did my ‘shopping’ on line. I don’t want to plug any one outlet, but a few didn’t have this keyboard. If you take a look at Microsoft and get the details, then just shop around on your computer. Saves time, energy and petrol? If it will help you, Office Works is where I bought mine, and they have a couple to choose from. Lately, they’ve also reduced the price - which is also great! Perhaps Microsoft are bringing out a new model. I’m sure you’ll find it a much better one to use. All the best!