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Essential: Gillard will go, and Labor deserves no economic credit

Most voters believe Julia Gillard will lose the prime ministership within 12 months, with new polling recording more disapproval and predictions of doom for the Labor government.

The Essential Research weekly online poll of 1896 voters also found little praise for Labor over its handling of the economy, with few voters giving the Gillard government credit for Australia’s relative economic health.

Labor did manage to claw back a point in the two-party preferred stakes, closing the gap to the Liberal/National opposition to eight points — 46-54%. Labor’s primary vote jumped a point to 35%, with the Coalition down to 47% — still a 12-point lead over the government.

But most voters predict another bad year for Labor — and for Gillard to be gone by the end of 2011. Asked if the Prime Minister would still be leading the government in 12 months, 55% said she would be sacked while just 26% believed she would hold on. Labor voters are more hopeful: among those, more (49%) believed she would survive over getting knifed (31%).

A majority of voters — 41% — believe Abbott will remain the opposition leader for another year. Still, proving the volatility of the political climate, a large number of voters — 34% — still doubt whether he can survive as Liberal leader.

And the opposition benches will ride high in the polls for another year, according to Essential, with 35% of voters believing 2012 will bring good tidings to Abbott’s team over the 22% who believe the Greens will have the best year and just 19% who say Labor will succeed.

Still, the personal standings of the leaders are more evenly split: 29% say Abbott will have a good year; 28% say Gillard. The prime minister does score highest in the “poor year” category.

Asked whether they expected a federal election in 2012, a narrow majority (42%) believe the government will survive another year rather than face a new poll (32%).

Most Australians accept the local economy is strong — the vast majority (73%) believe local money markets are doing better than other developed countries. But Labor gets little credit, with most voters saying the booming resources sector and even the previous economic management of John Howard’s government is more responsible than Labor policy.

Voters are generally positive about the year ahead, believing the domestic economy (48% good; 16% poor), their personal finances (39%; 20%), their family overall (51%; 14%) and their workplace (47%; 16%) will improve in 2012.

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  • 1
    John Bennetts
    Posted Monday, 19 December 2011 at 1:45 pm | Permalink

    If Gillard is the question, Rudd isn’t the answer.

  • 2
    Julie Storry
    Posted Monday, 19 December 2011 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

    We may not be paranoid, but we certainly are schizophrenic. How can citizens hold such conflicting positions/beliefs on the state of their world?

  • 3
    davidk
    Posted Monday, 19 December 2011 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

    The professional pundits have not been too successful in pedicting the future of this parliament so why would we give any credence to what joe public thinks? Just another pointless self serving poll.

  • 4
    Salamander
    Posted Monday, 19 December 2011 at 4:05 pm | Permalink

    You have to be sceptical of someone who thinks 41% is a majority.

  • 5
    Liz45
    Posted Monday, 19 December 2011 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    I’d like to see the end of POLLS - one every three months - maybe! Sick of it all! If people want Abbott then let them have him - they’ll be sorry, but I’ll have to put up with him too! No thank you! People are so insular and stupid! To vote for someone who does nothing, says nothing, and nobody calls him to account! Disheartening to say the least!

    What’s one positive thing Abbott has done or said all year? Not one!Zilch! No alternate policy, no positive attitudes to anything or anyone! People are stupid!

  • 6
    AR
    Posted Monday, 19 December 2011 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

    I find disheartening in the extreme the adage “people are entitled to their own opinions but not their own facts”.
    As is constantly demonstrated, people act on beliefs, lies, idiocies and prejudices before facts, which tend to be inconvenient and thoroughly ignored when they contradict the delusions, or plain B/S, by which so many people live.
    Otherwise they would not eat, read, watch or BE crap.

  • 7
    Brikel
    Posted Monday, 19 December 2011 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    Boring, boring, boring. There was a time when polls meant something and that was when we had them just before an election. All this bul****t about a poll coming out every other day is meaningless. Just a con by the pollsters who obviously make more money the more polls they have.
    The polls that will have something relevant to say will start to appear about two months before the election. In the meantime, pollsters can bug**r off and leave us in peace

  • 8
    Liz45
    Posted Monday, 19 December 2011 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    @BRIKEL - Couldn’t agree more!

  • 9
    Zeke
    Posted Tuesday, 20 December 2011 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

    @LIZ45

    What’s one positive thing Abbott has done or said all year?”

    He and his Coalition joined with the Labor Party to vote themselves a huge pay rise. That’s positive!

  • 10
    Carlo Silipo
    Posted Tuesday, 20 December 2011 at 3:07 pm | Permalink

    Australian voters just don’t care anymore.The problem is we feel even more disenchanted or removed from our political system even more so than in the past. our policial system is like a model t-ford I.e. you can have any colour you want as long as it is black.

  • 11
    GocomSys
    Posted Tuesday, 20 December 2011 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

    Rubbish!

  • 12
    AR
    Posted Tuesday, 20 December 2011 at 7:17 pm | Permalink

    Perhaps voters are so disengaged precisely because the country is doing so well, the ONLY developed society to have skipped over the GFC without a hint of austerity.
    When people are so well off they tend to feel that they can be irresponsible and feckless.
    Anyone reckon a downturn might concentrate minds?

  • 13
    Liz45
    Posted Wednesday, 21 December 2011 at 11:59 am | Permalink

    @ZEKE - POSITIVE FOR THEM!!!! Well, they haven’t done it yet! Parlt hasn’t met since the Tribunal handed down their report. They have to vote on it in the Parliament, not via news media outlets.

    Incidentally, I have no problem with a pay rise, but over 60%, when people in the public sector (NSW - Lib govt) (nurses, teachers, ambulance people etc) aren’t going to get above 2.5%? The States usually follow the Federal increases. Watch the pollies bellyache over the lack of competition, productivity blah blah of ordinary workers, who are just asking for a modest amount? That’s what gets to me!

    The Liberal Govt in NSW have just reduced the amount foster parents will be paid on a weekly basis. Many can’t afford this and those kids will either end up on the streets or in institutions? But the same politicians are very quiet on the recommended pay rises? Fancy that?

    The baby bonus(Federal govt) has got $400 chopped off it - but politicians in the major parties, federally, have either remained silent about the pay rise or have supported it - with our money, of course!

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