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Federal

Oct 19, 2011

Labor will eventually return to the Rudd brand

Brands are critical to Prime Ministers and Julia Gillard's brand is very likely terminally damaged. There's only one viable brand in Labor ranks.

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Branding has a bad name in political discourse. The word is often said with a faint distaste. Presumably people, particularly politically engaged people, would prefer that the clash of party, of policy, of personality not be reduced to the level of marketing dishwashing powder or cars. But given most voters — whom we force to polls with the threat of fines — have minimal interest in or exposure to the details of federal politics unless something significant is happening, and have long since abandoned even the simplest forms of political activism like political party membership, individual and party brands are key to political success.

And that will only become more so as the unitary media of the 20th century — a single public space controlled by a small number of proprietors across three media — recedes into history as the aberration it always was. In an ever-more cluttered, fragmented media environment, branding is crucial not just for media outlets but for political parties and leaders.

Prime Ministers need a brand. As national leader, they need to have a relationship with voters, and you can’t have a relationship with a non-entity (well, not a particularly enjoyable one). It used to take a long time to acquire a brand as leader. John Howard was around Australian public life for decades before he became Prime Minister. So was Bob Hawke, in a far more high-profile role. Keating created an entirely new political character in Australian politics and inhabited it brilliantly, but he’d been in politics for decades as well before he became Prime Minister. Hawke and Keating also rebranded their party as the party of reform, of modernisation and change, the drive of Keating and the reassurance of Hawke combining to enable Australians to accept the most rapid period of reform since WW2.

Julia Gillard‘s brand, as everyone knows, is damaged, and very likely terminally damaged. Last year, after the election, her challenge was to develop her brand, to articulate her personal vision for Australia, what she wanted to achieve as Prime Minister and her agenda for achieving it. She literally admitted that she needed to do this and tried, while many of us were whingeing about her need to do it, to set about doing it.

The carbon price decision, as correct in policy terms as it was, wrecked that, branding her as deceitful. Her, and Labor’s, polling numbers crashed from the day the carbon pricing decision was announced in February, and they’ve never recovered. Her failure to address another issue she had personally identified as being on her to-do list, asylum seekers, played to a wider branding problem for the whole government, of incompetence, an image undeserved in most areas but carefully cultivated by the Opposition and many in the media, particularly News Ltd and the ABC.

Barring a recovery that would make John Howard‘s “Lazarus with a triple bypass” look like a mild angina attack, Gillard can’t lead Labor to the next election. You can’t rule out a turnaround, of course: stranger things have happened. Recall John Howard’s travails in the 1980s, when he was a figure of public derision and mocking Bulletin front pages, before his huge electoral success in the 1990s and 2000s. But that took a wilderness period when even his own party turned its back on him, and a deeply unpopular Keating Government.

The political cycle has dramatically sped up since then, so there’s time for a Gillard rehabilitation before 2013, but not while she’s in office and under the constant scrutiny of the Prime Ministership, particularly when, to her immense credit, she remains committed to actually using power to pursue a useful, if fairly limited, set of reforms.

Who else has a brand suitable for leadership in the Labor Party? We’ve seen what happens when you install unknowns into leadership positions, in NSW, where Labor inserted first Nathan Rees, then Kristina Keneally, into the premiership in an effort to turn around its fortunes. Both were unknown to voters. Voters don’t initially react hostilely to people they don’t know, but the lack of a brand means there’s minimal tolerance for error, no deep roots to secure a leader in popular support even when things go bad.

As it turned out — particularly once she was free of the burdens of leadership, Keneally was actually revealed as an intelligent, engaging woman who might yet have a lot to offer Labor. But you can’t create a brand on the run.

That’s Federal Labor’s problem. Does Stephen Smith have a brand? Well, if he does it’s as one of the hotter blokes in Parliament. Beyond that, he’s intelligent, engaging and very competent, but otherwise unknown to voters. What about Bill Shorten or Greg Combet, the next generation? Combet in particular has some profile from his days at the ACTU, but again, they’re mostly unknown and to the extent they are known, they’re not associated with anything beyond being generic Labor figures.

Simon “safe pair of hands”™ Crean? Hmmm. And the ambitious deputy, that perennial figure in Australian politics? Well, neither side is blessed with thrusting deputies at the moment, and Wayne Swan has publicly acknowledged that the leadership baton has slipped from his napsack.

Oh, except, there is Kevin Rudd. He has a brand. And his brand is far better now courtesy of his knifing by his colleagues. The punters like Kevin much more now since he was done over by the factions than in the final stages of his leadership, although he was well ahead of Tony Abbott on all indicators when he was knocked off.

One of Rudd’s problems as PM was that he failed to build his brand while PM. I just said you can’t create a brand on the run, but Rudd was in an unusual position, having won the Prime Ministership on the basis of being able to project different things to different voters as Opposition Leader, appealing to both more cautious voters who were tired of Howard but didn’t want too much change, and the Howard-haters who would have done anything to turf out the Liberals.

With his enormous popularity, and his adroit handling of the GFC, Rudd was positioned in 2008-09 to craft a durable positive brand from a position of power. Instead, he blew it, blew it any number of ways but mainly, for mine, by allowing the Opposition to define the terms of economic debate, by skipping the chance to have a double dissolution election on the CPRS (dud policy that it was) in February 2010, and by dumping the CPRS.

All of that was fixed by getting knifed. As Malcolm Turnbull discovered, getting publicly executed by your party is a great way to revive your reputation. Before Tony Abbott narrowly defeated him, Turnbull’s leadership was a mess, particularly due to his appalling misjudgement over Godwin Grech. All that’s been forgotten now, particularly by Labor and Greens voters, who would lift the Liberals’ vote to even higher levels if he was leader, and even by the independents, who clearly would be tempted to back a Liberal Government if Turnbull was at the helm.

Turnbull was done over for standing by his principles, while Rudd can make no such claim, but that detail doesn’t seem to have dampened the popular enthusiasm for Rudd. The fact that Labor’s factional leaders are so poorly regarded further strengthens the image of Rudd.

That’s why, barring that improbable Gillard recovery, Labor will turn to Rudd, probably late in 2012, should the government survive that long, which is by no means assured. They’ll turn to him in spite of his profound personality flaws, Downfall-based management style and quite staggering genius for alienating people. Rudd’s the only choice. Labor wasted Gillard when it elevated her to the leadership too soon, and surrounded her with duds from NSW Labor to run her election campaign. Sticking Stephen Smith or Bill Shorten or anyone else in will just waste them too. Labor can’t waste Rudd, because it’s already done it.

Of course, that doesn’t solve the problem of what exactly the ALP’s brand is any more, anyway. That’s a problem beyond the immediate capacity of any leader — Gillard, Rudd, Smith, anyone — to fix.

Bernard Keane — Politics Editor

Bernard Keane

Politics Editor

Bernard Keane is Crikey’s political editor. Before that he was Crikey’s Canberra press gallery correspondent, covering politics, national security and economics.

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155 comments

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155 thoughts on “Labor will eventually return to the Rudd brand

  1. Suzanne Blake

    Sarah Hanson Young ripping into incompetent Sen Ludwig (as acting for Justice Minister) , on jailing of minors.

    She has got up 4 time sto re-ask, cause Ludwig is just reading for the spin sheet.

    When the question was first asked, he was shown fumbling for spin sheet.

    Inept / Incompetent that wacker is.

  2. Edward James

    Edward James
    Posted Sunday, 30 October 2011 at 12:16 pm | Permalink
    @ Suzanne Blake relocating from 70 Phillip Street to 1 Bligh Street is interesting CBUS Property own 33% of the new building. I ask why government business is not conducted in public buildings which government workers build and maintain in perpetuty. I worry when I read that light fittings designed for the new Federal Parlaiment building, intended to last 200 years are being thrown out. Misgovernance is the word which permits me to move on to another important story of waste and midmanagement. Hunters Hill gets another run in our Sunday reading. Currently Liberal National Coalition is carrying the can for the contaminated site and dead people, after we are reminded what BOF told anyone who would listen before the last state elections. Lets remind Luke Foley Labor had thirteen years doing what it liked in NSW, and did nothing to sort out the radioactive waste problem at Hunters Hill and then Liberal before that. All the while the Hunters Hill Council has councilors who are members of the Labor and Liberal parties who have turned a blind eye to the contaminated waste run off from these now government owned residential properties. Are there any Greens on Hunters Hill Coucil? Edward James

  3. Edward James

    @ Sezanne Blake relocating from 70 Phillip Street to 1 Bligh Street is interesting CBUS Property own 33% I ask why government business is not conducted in public buildings which government workers build and maintain in perpetuty. I worry when i read that light fittings designed for the Federal parlaiment intended to last 200 years are being thrown out. Misgovernance is the word which permits me to move on to Hunters Hill gets another run in our Sunday paper. Currently Liberal National Coalition is carrying the can for the contaminated site and dead people, after we are reminded what BOF told anyone who would listen before the last state elections. But lets not forget Labor had thirteen years doing what it liked in NSW to sort out the radioactive waste problem at Hunters Hill and then Liberal before that. All the while the Hunters Hill Council has councilors who are members of the Labor and Liberal parties who have turned a blind eye to the contaminated waste run off from these now government owned properties. Are there any Greens on Hunters Hill Coucil? Edward James

  4. Suzanne Blake

    @ Jimmy

    Here is another example of Labor waste under incompetent, inept Gillard

    smh.com.au/nsw/skyhigh-rent-for-gillard-and-crew-20111029-1mpex.html

    Renting one of Sydney’s most expensive offices for Government Offices and the building is owned by the UNIONS – fancy that

    DOUBLE the rent they are paying now.

    Tell me this is not more Labor waste.

  5. David Hand

    Getting through a CWA fete intact? Is that possible?

  6. SBH

    I had some debutantes balls once – my didn’t he squeel

  7. Policeman MacCruiskeen

    Dat’d be fer sure SBH …

    On yer mainland you’ll have yer debutante balls and the Bachelor and Spinsters but for us on the Island the critical roit of passage fer your intended lassie is to make it through a CWA fete with everything intact and in de roight order.

    Most of us fellas try and get off fer a week’s fishin’ or sealin’ or be findin’ some urgent fencin’ work to be done out in back blocks of the farm fer a few days. Up-wind if we can swing it.

    Some of the boatless and farmless town lads spend the week before trying to get themselves brought to the attention of pleece – that being the self – just to get a quiet week in the cells out of harm’s way. But too many of ’em got onto it and now they hafta make a bookin’ well in advance.

    But there’s no mistakin’ tis a versatile dish yer yolla – the wife’s yolla sponge fingers were roitly described in the Monthly Smuggler as a desert well worth dying fer. Who woudda thunk it?

    Sure some youse Croikey folks’ll be turning up dere noses at the thought of tucking into a tray of the little fishy flavoured fellas swimmin’ in a sea of grease and lard, but the girls at the CWA reckon it’s just a perception problem – nuffin’ what can’t be fixed with a bit of marketing an’ dat brand engineerin’ bizness them Cambra fellas get into.

  8. Archer

    Good morning SBH,

    “When you say the question on climate is open and should be so taught in schools, it’s like saying that you can’t predict the movement of the planets using calculus or that objects can move faster than light.”

    I must disagree. Yes, I am familiar with physics and calculus and trust them. They are tools which form the basis of engineering theory and equations. However, having read a number of articles and opinions by experts and even by contributors to this blog the science is not “in”, the government is effectively introducing an insurance policy. What is being proposed is to reduce the emission of CO2 in the hope of stabilizing and cleaning the atmosphere. It will not, and is not meant to reduce temperatures. Tim Flannery, their spokes person, has confirmed this. Therefore, any benefit of this action, if at all, will not be known for generations.

    I accept physics because I can see it, I know the speed of light because it is physically measurable and I think there’s contention about the possibility of moving faster than the speed of light.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/sep/22/faster-than-light-particles-neutrinos

    I don’t believe it can be taught with the same level of conviction that you could teach calculus or physics. There has to be a careful curriculum devised so as not to be biased either way.

  9. SBH

    Oh Christ MacCruiskeen, not the sealers’ breakfast! Bounce you say? post ingestion consequences would propel me into orbit. Last time I beheld (with all senses) such fare it’s ironic effect (look kids – no impact) was not to provide nourisment after a long night. You’re a tough breed on the island – Mrs MacCruiskeen’s CWA dos are clearly not for the squeemish.

  10. SBH

    pardon my typos

  11. SBH

    Archer I agree, you should have a view and inform yourself. As a parent I’m sure your children’s welfare is foremost in your mind and I’m sure you give them good advice like eat properly, exercise get enough sleep, don’t do dumb things in a car you know sound parental advice.

    If one of your kids came to you and said ‘Dad (or mum) the doctor’s put me on beta blockers for my hypertension, I’m already on verapmil so could you help me adjust the dosage to counter the additive effect it may have on mechanichal and electrical depression?’ You’d probably say ‘I think you need an expert son.’

    For some reason you’ve decided that the science on climate isn’t overwhelmingly conclusive. You could take the same view about lots on things including newtonian physics or special relativity or evolution. In each case further inquiry is warranted but our knowledge in each field is now extensive and closely matches the observable world. When you say the question on climate is open and should be so taught in schools, it’s like saying that you can’t predict the movement of the planets using calculus or that objects can move faster than light. You’d need some pretty strong grounds. People who don’t believe in climate change don’t have these grounds, they continue to use junk science and a debased form of reasoning.

    As for the national curriculum, teaching is a profession and writing curricula is a specialised part of that profession. It’s not a job for amateurs. And yet, you’re happy to critices the new national history curriculum as ‘political advertsising. By all means have an opinion. I just wanted to know if your opinion was in anyway backed up by knowledge of the subject matter or competence or anything other than a conversation you had with one teache in one school about one pupil.

  12. Edward James

    While Labor Party members and supporters continue to blindly accept the shonky way their party disfunctions at Local, State and Federal levels of government, it will continue to loose member support and consume itself. I am very happy to witness that happen because those who are running the show from the top down are not fit to represent anyone. As Rodney Cavalier pointed out in his book Power Crisis. The number of members is small and the number of active members is even smaller. It was both pleasing and instructive to see Labor had trouble manning the polling booths on March 27. Labor and Liberal National Coalition are the two parties not much preferred, because those people in a position to do something about it, that is the sixty percent of the voting pool who do not give a shit will not put any value on their own votes. I have often said the value you put on your vote is the value you put on your self. Thousands of people have read the advertisments re published here http://bit.ly/EJ_PNewsAds This one ADO41 pdf on the list is amusing not just for the instructive photo of AG John Hatzistergos reading a double page ad exposing often published corruption allagations, but because it embarrased John Hatzistergos and John Robertson to be accused of doing nothing about Gosford City Council misleading the State Coroner. Edward James

  13. Archer

    Asher is gone.
    Brown making out like it was an assassination.

    Good night all.

  14. Archer

    SBH Posted Thursday, 20 October 2011 at 3:20 pm

    Hello SBH

    “Archer – Just asking but do you have any experience or qualifications in developing or writing curricula or in teaching or studying history at a post graduate or above level?”

    No, but as a parent I’ve seen the standard of what is currently on offer. Perhaps in some instances I’ve an expected standard according to my own recollections and documents saved from my past. Secondly, I have a right to question the structure and content as long as I’m being reasonable.

    I’m not perfect, I did not attend university. My serious working life began at the age of seventeen as a trainee designer, completing my qualifications at night school over a period of five years. However, my concern is this, and it could be directed to the developers of today’s curricula. The level of work achieved by my grade six classmates and I far out strips that of a grade six class of today. This was confirmed through a conversation I had with my sons grade six teacher, roughly the same age as me.

    I didn’t realize I had to qualify to degree level to perhaps read a book, discuss an issue, put forward a thought or voice a concern.

  15. Peter Ormonde

    Troofie,

    So no evidence then?

  16. TheTruthHurts

    Peter I would love to see the emails fired between President Bob Brown’s and Prime Minister Julia Gillard, but alas I can’t so the bet can’t be proven either way.

  17. Peter Ormonde

    The usual Troofie,

    $500… even money … stakes held by Sister Mary Moderation here.

  18. TheTruthHurts

    Whats the bet Juliar Gillard got orders from Bob Brown her master not to curtsey to the Queen?

  19. Policeman MacCruiskeen

    SBH …

    Oi ‘aven’t troied d’ missus’ rancid yollas … usually ‘ave ta kip off in the cells for a week when she whips up a batch fer the CWA fete or the loike…wait for the fumes to subside and the guests to recover.

    But she runs a few yolla recipes up on the infermashun super highroad fer dem of youse what’d be up to tryin a few. E’re yers go den:

    SEALERS BREAKFAST
    4 skinned yolla, quartered
    * 2 leeks, finely sliced
    * 2 Tablespoon fresh ginger juice
    * 200 gms mushrooms, sliced
    * 250 gm jar of breakfast marmalade
    * 125 m1 of whisky (Scotch, Irish or Welsh)
    * freshly ground black peppercorns to taste
    * ¼ cup of water
    Gently sauté yolla pieces in deep saucepan until golden brown. Add leeks, ginger,
    mushrooms, marmalade, whisky and a quarter cup of water. Simmer gently until
    birds are glazed and tender.
    Garnish with chopped chives. Serve with steamed potatoes. Serves 4.

    Breakfast of Champeens I tell ya… my daily ration gives me more then enough bounce for a whole day’s pleecing.

  20. Richard Wilson

    @SBH – The consequences for coexisting ecosystems and compairsons between different periods of climate change would be covered in the science class part I reckon. As would the climate cooling factors that effects of global warming, such as melting ice caps, would potentially then produce.

    No doubt we’re artifically inflating the warming process at the moment… but a meteor isn’t hitting the earth tomorrow. Economic growth has to be a factor in decision making on correcting carbon pollution.

    I’m also pointing out that we hear worst case scenarios in the news about climate change and never hear anything about factors that occur after the ‘global warming’ that balance things back out to an extent. It’s just all bad.

    When I was a kid, there was a guy in town called Bob Brown that spoke at my school. According to him, by the year 2000 there were going to be no trees left anywhere when you looked out the window (regardless of the fact that a good % of Tasmania was protected by this stage), and you wouldn’t be able to do anything in the Derwent River because of all the oil and nuclear pollution from the ships that shouldn’t be using the water because it belongs to the animals. So forgive me for being skeptical.

  21. SBH

    Maccruiskeen, I want you to know that having experience of both I would rather chow down on a rancid smoked yolla than see the member for Throsby become any more prominent in our national circus.

  22. Policeman MacCruiskeen

    From the newsroom:

    Folks I’ve just spent a couple of hours at the Wollibuddha bowling club doing some intensive polling on our leadership crisis … pension week brings out the sample very nicely, but you’ve gotta get in before happy hour and the schooners of chilled sherry start to mount up.

    So I ran Troofie’s … sorry Troofys’ … idea about the Stephen Smith brand up the flagpole and the numbers are well and truly in:

    78.435% didn’t know who he was. 17.402% thought he was a jockey.

    Of the remainder 23.908% thought he’d be a far preferable leader if he had a moustache and changed his name to The Stephen Jones Brand . A small minority favoured the Bolt Upright brand. One did anyway.

    33.333% of intending Greens voters though he looked quite nice on telly and spoke real good but needed a bit of a touch-up with pomade around the temples. Or some dreadies. Or maybe a mohawk.

    100% of those planning to vote for the Sex Party – yes that’s you Maureen (I promised I’d mention her) -thought he had are really hot butt but still reckoned the white shirts looked too staid and conservative for a real stud. A few TV appearances in budgie smugglers was strongly endorsed as a profile-building effort for the brand, but it was late in happy hour and your pollster could not quite make out the rest of the interview.

    So there you have it folks, the jury is in on the Mr Smith – or Jones Brand. Just watch this space – and remember: you read it here on Crikey first.

    Brand Power … helping you vote better.

  23. SBH

    Yes Richard Wilson lets do that. Lets also teach the consequences for existing ecosystems for those climate fluctuations. Lets show the time scale over which they occured and contrast them to the current rate of change. I agree that would be enlightening.

    Earth is a self-correcting system that will continue well after humans are all gone. It might have a methane atmosphere, sulphuric acid seas and be utterly unable to support any form of life but it will go on. Just not in quite the way I’d hoped and perhaps a whole lot faster.

  24. SBH

    Archer – Just asking but do you have any experience or qualifications in developing or writing curricula or in teaching or studying history at a post graduate or above level?

  25. Richard Wilson

    @JIMMY – I believe the science. Although it’s portrayed as if it’s some new thing now a days that doesn’t occur naturally anyway.

    No doubt it’s happening and we’re speeding up the process of the current cycle. It’s exaggerated 10 fold by the scaremongering that has come with it this time.

    We’ve only heard one side of the climate change process for the past decade.

  26. Johnfromplanetearth

    As far as Labor Prime Ministers are concerned we have been dealt a bad hand recently. I rate Gough better than KRudd and Gillard, at least he had charisma! Hawke was needed in the 80’s and Keating was the PM we had to have so i would come to my senses and stop voting Labor! Both KRudd and Gillard are utterly hopeless in the job, i firmly believe KRudd to be quite mad so if you want a return to complete madness then the Labor Party should go right ahead and give him back the job. The fact that he is despised by his colleagues and most of his staff might put a stop to this insanity.

  27. Jimmy

    Richard Wilson – You want climate change taught in science but you don’t believe the science?

  28. Jimmy

    TTH – You are not quite being truthful, the 3 test would be

    1) Hold a Climate Change Community Cabinet with the goal of putting a price on Carbon – so the method changed but the result was the goal was achieved so Pass.
    2) 2. Sort out the mining tax mess – The Greens have repeatedly said they want more but will support the current plan because it is better than nothing, so it will pass both houses in the very near future. Pass.
    3) Setup a detention centre in East Timor – Yes didn’t happen, Malaysia didn’t happen either so you could mark that down as a fail but a lie? REally if someone says they will do something, attempts to do it but fails does that really mean they lied when they said they would do it. Is every defeated boxer a liar?

    “I reckon Stephen Smith will be in the post before Christmas” – You can keep dreaming but it won’t happen.

  29. Richard Wilson

    I agree climate change should be left to the science class. Although maybe they could add it to the history class as well.. go through all the long periods of global warming and cooling that have naturally existed through the traceable history of the world, including long spells of warming worse than what we’re seeing now. Just so they dont have to fear the green rhetoric that global warming will bring the sky crashing down around us overnight and it’s all our fault.

  30. TheTruthHurts

    For the Gillard lovers out there this is the 3 Tests Dillard gave herself before the election:

    1. Hold a Climate Change Community Cabinet – LIE/FAIL, never happened and never bothered to conference with the public instead introducing her “No Carbon Tax under my government” legislation

    2. Sort out the mining tax mess – Still a complete disaster and may not even pass through parliament because of the Greens holding a gun to Labors head

    3. Setup a detention centre in East Timor – Yet another Gillard Labor lie. Never happened. Never will happen, another policy failure.

    So thats Gillards 3 tests she gave herself. She has failed all 3 tests, which means she and her government are a failure.

    She needs to be rolled, I reckon Stephen Smith will be in the post before Christmas.

  31. Jimmy

    Archer – “The benefits, if any, of this tax will not be known for generations, therefore it is my belief we teach the introduction of the tax as a subject of history only” No where in the national history curriculum is there any mention of a carbon tax.

    You originally said “Today’s children are barely taught any history at all” “These students / children probably know very little about, or have never heard of, the Vietnam war, the Korean war, the Cuban missile crisis, when WW1 started and how, when WW2 started or why, the JFK assassination etc etc.” My point was that now we will have a national curriculum where every student will be taught history in a consistent manner. Nothing to do with the carbon price.

  32. Archer

    Jimmy Posted Thursday, 20 October 2011 at 11:22 am

    Hello Jimmy

    Archer – “If you start teaching it now you are predicting results and history not known for two generations” What the? They aren’t teaching history of the future, they are teaching history and the curriculum won’t be static, it will evolve.

    In my opinion, unlike the event of a world war, we know what will happen with absolute certainty. It starts, someone is the winner and someone is defeated. The statistics between the timeline is unknown until it ends. During the war, assuming there are schools, the topic is open for discussion until the inevitable, the war ends and becomes an important point in history.

    My concern with the global warming / climate change debate is that the curriculum must be devised so that all possibilities are open for discussion. At present, my son attends a primary school in a “green belt” region of Melbourne. His homework tasks, be they maths, social studies, geography or science are saturated with environmental themes. To me, the environment should be examined in the science class, nowhere else. It’s as if the curriculum had already been set, Al Gore’s film was shown and many parents were furious. Nobody had consulted them.

    Back to my original rant. The benefits, if any, of this tax will not be known for generations, therefore it is my belief we teach the introduction of the tax as a subject of history only. However, the science is to be taught in it’s appropriate class, impartially, because of the long period of uncertainty before any result is confirmed.

  33. Policeman MacCruiskeen

    Fek! Anudder call fer a Royal Commission. Listen Ormonde dat’s easy for yez te’ say. Yez’d have a different attitude if yez resided here given tha’ bunch o’ reprobates, cutthroats an’ radicals we’ve to administer down here. Chroist, dere’s so many undercover coppers infiltratin’ and interpenetratin’ subversive organisations and each other dat th’only way we can keep a track o’ whose straight and fair dinkum is ta’ defoliate ’em. Bloody Mick Keelty! Der are foive sargeants workin’ at da hairdressers alone.

  34. dirt armature

    I’ve got my wet tennis ball. When can we start playing brand Rudd? (Is this what Bernard means?)

  35. Peter Ormonde

    Constable….

    It is obviously high time there was a Royal Commission or yet another Police Integrity investigation into just what’s going on on your little pimple of paradise down there.

    This is what happens Cr*k*y when you get stuck into the Real Burning Issues that the 80% of us are losing sleep over … you flush out these pockets of extremism and militant cells of Al Coiffeurists.

    On the Brazilian issue though we’re all with the policeman on that one. Come clean Gillard! The public has a right to know!

    Oh yes, forgot to mention that 137.496% of the Woolibuddha respondents said they’d be falling in behind a reborn Rudd is he ditched the space cadet job and went with flaming red bangs!

  36. Policeman MacCruiskeen

    Down here on Muttonbird Island we’ve a very strict policy towards hair and public office whereby any aspirants to public office must submit to the Holy Order of the Follicular Sisters for total defoliation. This includes a, err, Brazilian attitude. Tha’ purpose is to ensure dat all public office holders are readily identifiable during daytoime and noighttoime (wink) as well as guaranteein’ a deep commitment amongst aspirant office holders to tha’ requirements o’ public position. Tha’ Follicular Sisters established the very first nunnery in ‘Strayan waters in 1629 shortly after the Wreck o’ the Batavia. Unsupervised by a Bishop they developed some unusual forms o’ mortification o’ the flesh and are deeply feared by most Muttonheads (as the locals are known). It is primarily them who are responsible for tha outstandin’ job that Garrett is doin’. But tha’ point is they’re fair itching (literally) ta’ get their hands on Julia and the rest o’ tha’ cabinet. We recommend it. It’s administered without fear, favour or anaesthetic to all gender identities includin’ those who are undecided.

  37. Peter Ormonde

    Excellent Ace….

    It’s about time Cr*k*y started to tackling the Big Issues.

    I’ve been doing a bit of my own polling at the Woolibuddha Bowling Club and the results are now streaming in.

    87.24% reckon that the red hair is just too strong and when pressed further 43.29% of those respondents advocated streaking and foils with perhaps some feathering to soften the overall impression. While 14.67% went with a blonde rinse, while older female voters were vociferous in their endorsement of the blue or pink rinse and perm. They strongly revcommended against doing it herself and said it was well worth getting someone else (perhaps the First Bloke Tim) to do it.

    Next week: The hips, thighs and butt issue.

    I’ll be knocking up some charts and diagrams.

  38. ace ventura

    ^^
    but i suppose that would require “journalists” to take their hand off it for a second or two? hmm, too much to ask i suppose. ok, back to your rudd circle jerk, mr media.

  39. ace ventura

    can we get back to commenting about julia’s wardrobe choice, or her hair cut? or who’s “on top”? all this dithering about possible rudd comebacks is distracting from the really important issues out in voter land.

    sincerely,
    ace

  40. Peter Ormonde

    Archer ….

    I am praying … not sure to whom but praying nonetheless … that the National curriculum will contain some mention of basic grammar and the correct use of apostrophe’s…

    That way the Troofie’s and Suzanne’s and Michael’s wot carn’t spell nor right proper will just be a transitory fing and not a pointer to the grunting snorting fewcha.

  41. Jimmy

    Archer – “If you start teaching it now you are predicting results and history not known for two generations” What the? They aren’t teaching history of the future, they are teaching history and the curriculum won’t be static, it will evolve.

    Every history curriculum could have the same allegations made of it, the fact that every child will be taught on the same topics in the same year level is a massive plus. It doesn’t stop teachers from discussing different points of view on that topic.

    You bemoan the lack of history being taught and then you bemoan a curriculum that ensures that it is taught. Instead of just complaining why not offer us your preferred option.

  42. Archer

    Jimmy Posted Thursday, 20 October 2011 at 10:33 am

    Archer – At least we now have an agreed upon (although not yet started) national cirriculum

    “so we can easily see what is to be taught and when.
    Another plus for this govt.”

    Consider what you have just written, they are very dangerous words.

    That’s a very selective Curriculum. Some may consider it political advertising.
    If you start teaching it now you are predicting results and history not known for two generations.

  43. Archer

    Gillard will be hard to remove. All the independents made their deals with Gillard and Gillard alone behind closed doors. That’s how they ended up with entitlements they demanded. None of the other Labor MP’s would have put up with their wish list.

    Having said that, if Gillard goes the deals may go as well, something the independents definitely won’t put up with. Rudd isn’t a liked man, well “not liked” aren’t the words, he’s despised. No one wants to work with him. Rudd may pull the deals just to put the Greens and the independents in their places. I don’t believe they would retaliate because for the first time the Greens are actually in a position of power and so are the independents. And do you think they want to go to an election? I doubt it, Windsor, Oakshotte and Wilke would be mauled and Katter doesn’t care. Besides, doesn’t Katter have his own party now? The Greens would take a pounding, perhaps even in the City of Yarra where Bandt comes from.

    There is a rumour that Steven Smith has been chosen. He’s likable, not threatening and will probably honour the deals negotiated by Gillard.

    Even though I hate Rudd I’d love to see the proverbial hit the fan and the Greens and Indies squirm but I doubt it’s going to happen.

    My two cents.

    P.S. Whoever Labor offer as the contender they can be assured this is there one and only shot at the PM ship because they will be defeated badly. What do you call it in cricket? The night watchman.

  44. Jimmy

    Archer – At least we now have an agreed upon (although not yet started) national cirriculum so we can easily see what is to be taught and when.

    Another plus for this govt.

  45. Archer

    Ian @Wednesday, 19 October 2011 at 3:06 pm

    Sent this to the PM yesterday. Don’t really care what the right thinks

    Dear Prime Minister,

    “Firstly, my sincere congratulations on the passing of the Carbon Reduction Scheme. I am sure that my grandchildren and their childrens gratitude will echo with much more resonance than mine. The future,as always, has much to thank the past for. This is no exception. Again, thank you.”

    Hello Ian,

    Today’s children are barely taught any history at all, let alone what happened before the iPod age. Remarkable events which had significant impact on the political and technological well being of the world took place well before the introduction of the mobile phone or global warming.

    These students / children probably know very little about, or have never heard of, the Vietnam war, the Korean war, the Cuban missile crisis, when WW1 started and how, when WW2 started or why, the JFK assassination etc etc.

    I doubt that in 2 generations from now, the kids will be dancing in the streets, thanking the Labor government for introducing a tax.

  46. Venise Alstergren

    “”Venise Alstergren
    Posted Thursday, 20 October 2011 at 9:40 am | Permalink
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    MARILYN: Julia Gillard may, in some ways, be regrettable. But disgusting is a word which I use when I think of p/ae.dop.hiles. BTW, there’s a troll parrot following you.””

  47. Son of foro

    Corrected: You remember Fraser for interest rates hitting 22%, inflation and high unemployment. But I can’t remember who the Treasurer was at the time … someone needs to remind me …

  48. GocomSys

    LABOR will eventually return to the “XXXX” BRAND!
    Branding is facetious and counter productive. Silly ongoing speculations in the “NOW media” are uncalled for.
    LIBERALS will eventually return to the “YYYY” BRAND!
    It would be in the national interest to restore small “l” Liberal credibility. To achieve that, incompetent extreme elements in the party top hierarchy need to take their rightful place on the darkest back benches. The sooner the better before any more damage is done!

  49. Tom F

    Fantastic, as if the ALP isn’t hollow enough; let’s bring back Kev. Bugger it, let’s rename it the Australian Peronist Party and make it official.

  50. syzygium

    @Ian (3:06 PM) Don’t know if you’re still reading this, but just wanted to throw in my support for what you said. I hope Gillard gets lots of letters like yours and it boosts her spirits on a bad day (I’ll bet she does).

    She delivered on the Carbon Price. ‘Nuff said.

  51. Bobalot

    “And Suzanne Blake- you are entitled to your opinion but piss off and come back when you have some facts.”

    You will be waiting a long time. In an article a few months ago, I asked her to provide evidence for her claim that the flood levy was the major cause of the reduction in the average disposable income. Something that can be easily proved with currently available economic data.

    The maths was simple. Someone with a high school education should have been able to do it.

    She blathered, spammed, made numerous excuses and ultimately ran away from the thread. Facts or Evidence (and the menial amount of work to get these things) is like Kryptonite to Suzanne Blake.

    She’s an embarrassment to the Conservative cause.

  52. TheTruthHurts

    The question on everyones lips is:

    Will Gillard make it to Christmas?

  53. SBH

    Yes Oscar, I’m a bit of that view as well. This piece tells us nothing new and is frankly looking through the chicken guts for some kind of meaning

  54. TheTruthHurts

    [“No they won’t. The polls will start to turn around, the internal tensions in the Liberal Party will bubble up, Abbott will be STABBED IN THE BACK BY FACELESS BACKROOM HEAVIES!!!! and Gillard will win the next election.”]

    LALA Land Type Stuff.

    The Labor supporters are starting to really lose it now. Gillards never had better than 50% TPP since the election, her leadership and her government is terminal.

  55. Oscar Jones

    And Suzanne Blake- you are entitled to your opinion but piss off and come back when you have some facts.

    “Bernard is just reporting on what 80% of Australians see”.

    You claim repeatedly that Julia Gillard is a liar . You could take the Oscar for the lies you perpetuate.

  56. Oscar Jones

    And whatever has happened to Bernard Keane, it is rather sad. He writes a piece totlly devoid of the Machaevellian machinations that have been conducted by a media witch hunt that has set out to destroy the career of Australia’s first female PM just as they destroyed Rudd’s.

    When Keating said Australia was the arse end of the world” he never said a truer word.

  57. Oscar Jones

    It really is quite shocking that we now have a media exampled by Alan Jones and ilk-and as demonstrated on here by Suzanne Blake, that Julia Gillard’s leadership is to be defined by a change of mind (or a ‘lie’ if they prefer) in which she gives us one of the most important pieces of legislation of this decade.

    The fact they can ignore the greatest lies ever told to the Australian people-that of John Howard’s who lied not only in Parliament but outside, repeatedly with his falsehoods on Iraq’s WMD , “human shredding machines” and so on- lies in which tens of thousands of people paid for with their lives, and yet the hysteria about Gillard’s “no carbon tax” is repeated ad finitum.

    But Howard ‘sleeps well at night” a she has said as presumably do those who rabbit on endlessly about Gillard.

    What a ghastly race of people we have become.

  58. Suzanne Blake

    @ Peter Ormonde

    You need your own journalist, who write what you want day in day out. SNAP – Socialist News of Australia Perhaps

  59. Peter Ormonde

    Sorry …that’s 70% isn’t it … last week it was 85% … but heck well all know that’s completely unrecoverable … we just know… the polls tell us… Rupert tells us … now Crikey tells us.

    Brand power … helping you vote better!

    When will Suzanne Blake get a regular slot as a Crikey commentator?

  60. Peter Ormonde

    Yes Suzanne you are for once right … Bernard is just reporting on what 80% of Australians see … I expect a bit more of him than that.

  61. Suzanne Blake

    @ Peter Ormonde

    Bernard is just reporting on the facts, and what 80% of Australians see. Unfortulately, Peter, you are in the minority on this.

  62. Peter Ormonde

    Bernard,

    Is this what happens when you go on hols…. you come back all shallow and superficial?

    My goodness is packaging and product identification all that there is? New miracle ingredients…now with extra kudos… improved stability… graceful lines… lovely new container? Container for what exactly? Anything the focus groups want in there?

    How long before some commentator makes the obvious insightful recommendations – that Julia could lose a few inches off the hips, lift the hemlines and go for a facelift and some botox shots. How shallow can we get before we can say we’ve hit dry land?

    It is interesting that your article above doesn’t mention a single issue – single policy – as being of significance to the “Labor Brand” … or is it the “Gillard Brand, or Brand Rudd or the all new Stephen Smith model?

    This poll-driven silliness underestimates the sense of Australian voters, their degree of sophistication and the complexity of these matters. It is all gloss and froth. And its is wrong.

    That’s it – no more holidays for you Bernard!

  63. Suzanne Blake

    @ shepherdmarilyn

    we agree on something – the second part of your post – Gillard is disgusting and anyone with a brain knows it

  64. shepherdmarilyn

    No I will not shut up Venise, Gillard is disgusting and anyone with a brain knows it.

  65. David Hand

    I agree with Jim.
    Labor should rediscover its core values and take whatever the electorate throws at them. Branding is much more profound than an announcement or a marketing campaign; it is a projection of your essence and you don’t control that with a slick advertising campaign. Just look at the banks and select a brand that best describes them from the following list

    The “yes” bank.
    Determined to be different.
    An organisation that enriches itself with your money.

    Pick one.

    That is why it is so hard to change once it has been trashed. Labor’s brand problem is that it stands for a gravy train for the partners and families of union hacks that wouldn’t recognise a policy principle if it fell over one.

    I don’t actually agree with many of the policy positions in Jim’s list but then I wouldn’t vote for them. The fact is though that such policies may have broad enough appeal to elect a government provided the party is credited with some semblance of integrity and is believed capable of implementing them.

  66. Kristen Smith

    ‘The carbon price decision, as correct in policy terms as it was’,
    to a arch green stalinist I am sure it is, but to any thinking adult either from the pro or anti carbon tax view, it is certainly a matter or some debate.
    Go back back to your holiday Bernard, the Wombats still need watching.

  67. Venise Alstergren

    MARILYN SHEPHERD: I’m not about to get into a slanging match with you. So belt up, and grow up. You could even try shutting up-for once.

  68. SimsonMc

    MWH – Rather than you reading Green blogs which just reinforces your prejudice and jilted view of the world I will enlighten you. I never said that the Greens didn’t action on climate change. What I was referring to was the fact that unlike Howard and the Democrats who understood the practicalities of implementing reform when it came to the GST, the Greens’ decision to vote the CPRS legislation down altogether, rather than passing it with minor amendments as better than nothing, seems to be based on two fundamental misjudgements.

    First, the Greens were hoping that the government held a Double Dissolution election on the CPRS. A Double Dissolution would have seen more Greens elected to the Senate (because the quota for election is much lower than in a normal election). This would have meant that the Greens might have held the balance of power in their own right. That would have obviously been to the Greens’ advantage but they also seemed to have held out the hope that Labor would have then introduced a far more radical scheme in order to pass it with Greens’ support. However that was never going to happen because not only is the ALP ideologically opposed to radical left policies but it knew it faced genuine political and economic constraints with such a reform. Labor (and the Coalition) understand the structural power of business in a capitalist economy. Governments especially Labor ones, have a long term fear of overly antagonising business because they have seen the concerted business campaign against Labor that contributed to the defeat of Chifley in 1949, Whitlam in 1975 and Latham in 2004.

    That is why Labor wanted significant business support for their CPRS model not, as Christine Milne implied because they are craven or corrupt. Perversely, if the Greens were as Marxist as Nick Minchin and others accuse them of being, they would have understood how power operates in a capitalist society and of the economic constraints which all governments have faced historically. So, the Greens misunderstood the strategic considerations underlying Labor’s CPRS. It was designed to win broad initial support but to be incrementally strengthened over a period of years as business and public opinion was gradually won over to the tougher measures. (After all, an incremental methods has been used to introduce most major government economic reforms).

    Second, the Greens seemed to believe that the detrimental impact of climate change would become so obvious that public opinion would automatically fall behind a more radical scheme, forcing Labor to introduce one. This was a huge assumption to make and showed little understanding of how ideology works. Many climate change scientists do argue that the evidence of catastrophic climate change is becoming more obvious. Nonetheless, climate change scepticism is growing, as is opposition to taking action against it. Furthermore, even if a changing climate is eventually acknowledged, it can still be interpreted, as Tony Abbott sometimes suggests, as being due to natural changes that have happened throughout history.

    So, even if the Greens are right about the catastrophic environmental impact and causes of climate change, they blew their chance so now large sections of the public prefer the comfort of denial.

  69. Neil Walker

    Not my view, Stewthalmighty. It was Eddie McGuire’s. He seems well connected with the gaming industry so just an observation, that’s all.

    Labor MPs have shown they’ll do anything in their own self-interest by deposing of one prime minister. Why not another when the heat is on from a powerful industry and its lobbyists?

    My personal view is that Julia Gillard will go but Kevin Rudd won’t return.

  70. eric

    Suzanne Blake

    I hope Abbott does get elected PM because he typifies the average aussie – racist,bigoted,homophopic,economic pygmy, and rusted on catholic with all that brings.

    So enjoy but beware what you wish for!

  71. StrewthAlmighty

    Neil

    You can’t possibly be right. Jimmy has stated as absolute fact that Rudd coming in as leader will “trigger an election”.

    How he knows why Oakeshott and Windsor (and probably Wilkie) would be so keen to commit political suicide is beyond me but one shouldn’t question the hard facts he deals in…..

  72. Dogs breakfast

    Jim Reiher is right.

    Go down swinging. If Gillard got all that through whe would have transformed the country and Abbott will not be able to do anything about it.

    And of course, don’t forget the NBN. This hopeless political party has brought about two of the most significant reforms since the last Labor govt. Howard and Costello managed one, the GST, in 11 years. No, I don’t count taking us to a war on false pretences as a reform!

    If this govt got genuine runs on the board they would have half a chance, as much as Gillard is on the nose, and will still be. People don’t have to like you, they do have to respect you. If Labor stopped chasing focus groups and fighting the greens and enacted good policy, the original Super profits tax would be a good start, they might find they are respected. I said might!

    Tony only has the public’s hatred of Gillard and Labor to his credit. He sells nothing else. There are huge strategic problems in what he is doing.

    A year and a half is a hell of a long time in politics. There could be a global revolutions between now and then.

    And those suggesting the carbon tax as insignificant have no idea how the world works. This is substantial reform.

    Now, about the productivity issue – 75 comments on the same day the story was put out!

  73. Neil Walker

    Eddie McGuire, champion of the pokies, was muttering about Andrew Wilkie on his Melbourne Triple M Breakfast Show program this morning. McGuire says political gossip claims Bob Katter will be instrumental in returning Kevin Rudd as prime minister in March 2012.

    So *conspiracy alert* is the gaming industry (Packer and company) going to roll a sitting prime minister just like the mining industry got rid of Rudd?

  74. shepherdmarilyn

    Even today the stupid woman is claiming it is Abbott’s fault 51 refugees arrived, even though our over all lot for the year has fallen by 19% on last year because they are going to Europe instead.

    And forgetting of course that she was told in May by the UN commissioner for human rights that flogging off refugees is illegal, she was told by the head of the UNHCR who would have nothing to do with her dirty dealings, the head of Human rights watch who wrote and laid out the laws, the head of Amnesty International, our own HREOC and international jurists and lawyers and our own High court who screamed in the stupid woman’s face IT’S ILLEGAL.

    It cannot ever be made legal but still she shows no leadership and fails to understand that the truth was told last year by her.

    We should also understand that what drives the peaks and troughs in the
    numbers of boats trying to get to Australia has less to do with what we do
    here and more to do with the conditions people are escaping – conditions like
    war, genocide, imprisonment without trial, torture, harassment by authorities,
    the disappearance of family and friends, and children growing up in refugee
    camps with no prospect of ever again seeing their home.
    And when conditions deteriorate in countries with sea routes to Australia, as
    they did between 1999 and 2001, more boats come – some 5,516 people
    came to our shores in 2001. But then when conditions improved as happened
    after 2001 with the downfall of the Taliban regime fewer and fewer boats
    arrived.

    So she knows and doesn’t care. Read the articles I posted from Malaysia.

    Gillard could show some facts instead of crawling into the lazy racist gutter.

  75. shepherdmarilyn

    No Venise, she has always believed Ruddock was right. You should have attended the meetings when she ignored the law and insisted that all refugees should bloody well stay home.

  76. Jimmy

    MWH – “You know perfectly well that States get funding from the federal government, and often this is provided to do specific things” Yes but for something like public transport the states would also have to put up money, and they would have to formulate the plan, and they would have to implement it and usually it would be them who requests the money from the feds.

  77. SimsonMc

    @ SB

    The only people who think that of Keating are the uneducated who are only one lobotomy away from Alan Jones.

    May I suggest you do yourself a favour and have a read of George Megalogenis’s book “The Longest Decade.” In there will you find interesting facts about the all good things that even the most ardent Murdoch Groveller now acknowledges Keating did for this country. I am by no way a party hack of either team, merely a disenchanted soul who every morning whilst eating his cornflakes, gives thanks to Vātsyāyana and to the goddess Ninkasi but I also give thanks to Keating and Howard for giving us this rose amongst the global economic thorn bush.

    It also appears that you have been challenging the Bolter. Did core and non-core promises not suit your argument?

  78. Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)

    @Jimmy,

    You know perfectly well that States get funding from the federal government, and often this is provided to do specific things.

    The solar cell scheme was fixed because the Greens made a big fuss about it. But that Labor would modify Howard’s scheme when it was becoming too expensive so that it would appear to be an environmental good but was actually making things worse shows just how much Labor can spin and how little they care about outcomes.

    I’m about to sign off, and it might be for a long time, so apologies in advance if I don’t get the chance to reply to further posts.

  79. Jimmy

    MWH – “It will take many years to upgrade public transport, but this massive upgrade has not even started.” I think you will find public transport is a state issue.

    “And if they actually believed in action I doubt they would have changed the way solar cells were funded so that installing a solar cell system would result in MORE carbon being emitted (I think this has since been fixed)” If has been fixed then obviously something was done about it so your point isn’t relevant.

    “For a start they would start to reduce the massive fuel subsidies” Isn’t this going to happen under the legislation just passed?

    And all those things you suggest make much more sense after you have the big frame work in place, then you can tinker around the edges where the states and private enterprise aren’t.

  80. Douglas Evan

    Labor has an incredible problem on its hands. If the polls don’t pick up it may, as BK argues, try to solve its woes by changing leaders again before the election.

    First question for the back room morons who might be thinking along these lines. Would this help their standing or would it only reinforce an already strongly held public perception that Labor is terminally disorganized and doesn’t know what it stands for other than gaining re-election?

    Second question. Even if they want to do it who will be prepared to be drafted? In the event that the polls stay poor, anyone with ambition and half a brain will wish to keep their head down until after the event. Rudd’s ego is so large that he might think he can become a Labor hero by winning the day. However calm reflection suggests that Labor will still lose, even though some of the Queensland furniture might be saved, with Rudd at the helm.

    That would leave him terminally damaged as leader of a defeated, disorganized, demoralized, disoriented opposition that by and large hates him. He would be dead(ish) meat waiting to be snapped up by the first sufficiently lean and hungry wolf to gather the numbers. If you were Rudd would you take the gig under those circumstances or would you hold off until after the election?

    Combet and Shorten will wait. Smith might be prevailed upon to sacrifice his career but I wouldn’t bet on it. Neither would I assume that Rudd is simply waiting to get back in the chair as soon as possible.

  81. Ian

    MWH@3.16pm

    My take on this is that the politics of this are irrelevant. Action on the climate change ball was going to be relegated to an old, forgotten cupboard in the garage. Julia Gillard, whether by design or pragmatic decision dusted it off, pumped it up and got it rolling. The ball is now in play.

    I’m no finacial wizard or scientific mind. I’m a truckdriver. But,IMHO, the amount of money that will be spent on renewable research to help come up with the overdue solutions the planet so desperately needs. None of this would be happening if Julia Gillard hadn’t put the ball into play.

    At least be fair and give some credit where it is due.

  82. Venise Alstergren

    MARILYN SHEPHERD: Julia’s treatment of the refugees merely built on the appalling attitudes of John Howard and his merry crooks. In other words her stance is but a reprise of John Howard’s limitless evil.

  83. Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)

    @SIMONMC,

    I’m not sure what fantasy world you live in, but in the real world Labor refused to work with the Greens on the CPRS. Yes, the Greens could have voted for it, but for reasons I’ve already talked about in this thread, they did the right thing and voted against it.

    And if the Greens are guilty of not wanting action on climate change, why did they make action the condition of their supporting Gillard? And if the Greens are incapable of negotiation, how did they manage to negotiate the carbon tax?

    SIMONMC, your post makes as much sense as SUZANNE BLAKE’s.

    @Jimmy, it was politically possible to achieve much more than Labor has done. Just think of what Labor would have done in their very first budget (and followed up on in all subsequent budgets) if they actually wanted action. For a start they would start to reduce the massive fuel subsidies. It will take many years to upgrade public transport, but this massive upgrade has not even started. And if they actually believed in action I doubt they would have changed the way solar cells were funded so that installing a solar cell system would result in MORE carbon being emitted (I think this has since been fixed).

  84. SimsonMc

    @ MWH

    You are the epitome of the Green ethos – All Care, No Responsibility.

    The Greens had their chance and they blew it. They could have worked on the CPRS with the major parties and at least got it started even if it wasn’t perfect. Instead all they did was have a big dummy spit, walked off the field in a big sook, taking their cricket bat and ball and going home because they couldn’t get their own way. It’s about time the Greens had a concrete sandwich and HTFU.

    I am sure that my grandchildren and their childrens will wax lyrical about how the Greens were sucked into the vortex of irrelevance along with the Democrats. Remember MWH in space no one can hear you.

  85. Jimmy

    MWH – “Jimmy, of course I meant during this term.” In regards to what soving the climate change issue?

    “But I continue to maintain that Labor (Rudd/Wong/Gillard) have NEVER intended to take any significant action on climate change” And what evidence do you have to back this claim?
    “They have always treated this as politics, and have just wanted to give an impression of doing something whilst protecting business as usual” It needs to be treated as politics to a degree to ensure legislation actually gets passed but the end result is much more than that.

    As I said it is not politically possible to achieve the major leap you demand.

    DavidK – YOu can always find things that weren’t achieved and complain about that, no matter how far we come there is always further to go. But things have actually been achieved.

    SB – You remember those people for those things because your mind is too small to see the big things they accomplished. Don’t project your shortcomings on to others.

  86. Richard Wilson

    @PATRICIAWA – Gillard has guts? I fail to see anything but the contrary to this. As MWH rightly points out, she is taking the credit now for a carbon tax which was not Labor policy, was not implemented due to the wishes of her or her party.. and in fact was denied would ever happen under her Labor Government. Now she “embraces it” and is playing it up as if it’s her doing.

    That’s the opposite to having guts if you ask me. Deposing an elected, sitting Prime Minister, generally isn’t seen as a show of tremendous courage either.. and since doing that she’s deserved the every bit of criticism she’s received.

  87. shepherdmarilyn

    For trying to flog off refugees Venise, that is what she will be forever remembered for.

    For trying over and over again to break the law, for allowing crimes against humanity to be unmentioned like in Sri Lanka.

    Everything else are Rudd’s plans.

  88. Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)

    @Jim,

    The big lie, which almost all commentators seem to miss, was not that Saddam had WMD, but that if he did there was another threat to justify an invasion.

    We all know that Saddam used to have WMD (as a Tanburg cartoon put is to well, “we know because we have the invoices”). And we never talked about invading Iraq when he was using those weapons.

    Also there was no evidence after 9/11 that Saddam had anything to do with the terrorists.

    So even if Saddam did have WMD, the invasion was still not justified.

    It is to me interesting to note that even though the UK has had many inquires into the war, Labor have totally ignored Australia’s role in this illegal war. But I guess that is only a surprise to those who don’t accept that Labor is a right wing government and so such behaviour is to be expected 🙂

  89. Suzanne Blake

    that should be

    You remember Gillard for lying.!!

  90. Suzanne Blake

    @ Jim Reiher

    As I said politicians lie, some more than others.

    You remember Menzies for being strong
    You remember McMahon for being hopeless
    You remember Holt for going missing
    You remember Whitlam for incompetence and being sacked
    You remember Fraser for crying when he was dumped
    You remember Hawke for his comments in 1983 when we win the America Cup
    You remember Keating for incompetence, banana republic and rates hitting 19%
    You remember Howard for being stable and losing his seat to Maxine
    You remember Rudd for Kevin 07, rants, crying at the end
    You remember Gillard for lyin.

  91. davidk

    @ Jimmy
    I don’t deny much has been achieved but bemoan Rudd’s failure to capitalise on his advantages earlier. Had he sought to engage with the Greens at that time much more could have been achieved. Labor seems hell bent on placating a right wing media which will never be supportive while its’ battles with the Greens serve only to advantage the opposition, in my view.

  92. ar.appleby@bigpond.com

    I wondered how long it would take you to write something stupid about this. Get your hand off it Bernard, just because nearly everyone else has speculated about this rubbish, does not mean that someone who is reasonably astute like you has to as well. What am I to read or listen to if I can’t stomach the ABC any more and a senior journalist from Crikey! has started pening this sort of crap as well?

    I have read just about everything you have written for about the last 3 years, I don’t agree with all of it but usually I can see your point. It is usually subtily different to everyone elses. Please don’t slip back into the sewer with the rest of them.

    If you are right in your predictions I am moving to New Zealand. If Julia is still there for the next election I will remind you of what you wrote in this post……

  93. Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)

    Jimmy, of course I meant during this term.

    But I continue to maintain that Labor (Rudd/Wong/Gillard) have NEVER intended to take any significant action on climate change. They have always treated this as politics, and have just wanted to give an impression of doing something whilst protecting business as usual.

    As I said in another thread, the reasoning that property rights over emission permits would make it difficult or very expensive for Abbott to repeal any carbon tax or ETS is not used by Labor supporters, but the very same people ignored the property rights reasoning when it came to the CPRS. The aim of the CPRS was to make a small reduction in emissions whilst giving business certainty that future large cuts would not happen. It was the property rights of all the free permits which would have prevented a future government from making large cuts as it would be too expensive to do so.

  94. Venise Alstergren

    BERNARD KEANE: You have been absent from these pages for quite a while. I hope you were not sick, or if so, that you’re better now.

    Many people haul out the ‘but she’s a liar’ line because they can’t quite define their true feelings about our Prime Minister. I dare say-unless they’re hopelessly religious-they don’t quite understand their feelings toward Kevin Rudd, another perpetual liar. Ditto Malcolm Turnbull, but that’s a separate issue. As to why Rudd would not have a marketing problem defeats me. So many of his interminable speeches and/or answers to press commentators had us cringing and looking for a way out of the room. Perhaps Gillard has a rotten marketing problem because the media gives her a rotten time-as much as anything else?

    I feel, quite strongly, neither she nor Rudd are marketable. This being the case, why can’t Labor put Bill Shorten or Greg Combet into power? Surely a ‘new broom’ is better than a badly used one. Stephen Smith comes across as being too much of a gentleman to go into the bull-pit, whereas union leaders have had to face hostility-and thrived.

    All the same, I wish I had Julia Gillard’s courage. History will judge her better than the electorate ever will.

  95. Jim Reiher

    SB – I always thought “weapons of mass destruction” and “children overboard” were the biggest lies in my political memory (that only goes back about 40 years to my teen years of course).

    Why should a backflip on the carbon tax win the title?

    I know what Mr H supporters will say: he acted genuinely on the weapons of mass destruction information he was fed by “less honest” others; and maybe some even say that about the “mum’s thowing their kids overboard to be guaranteed a place in Australia.” But I an not that naive. If you really want to believe that, then Mr H is no liar, just a fool easily manipulated by false reports….

    But he was no fool…

  96. Jimmy

    Patricia – You are not alone, I posted 1 3 hours ago which criticised this site and it is still in moderation.

  97. PatriciaWA

    Why is my first comment of today from several hours ago ‘still awaiting’ moderation?

  98. wordwork2010@gmail.com

    They’ll grow accustomed to her face. Tra La. Her highs her lows etc etc etc. With apologies to My Fair Lady lyricists

  99. MinkTheLink

    It seems to me that the Australian electorate is increasingly fickle. They love Rudd, they hate Rudd, they love Gillard, they hate Gillard – all within the space of a few months. Loyalty to a party and policies has all but disappeared and given way to what can only be described as a personal popularity contest. The public may hate Gillard now and want Rudd back, but no doubt if this did come about, the media would condemn Labor and Rudd for another leadership change and they would be in the same position as they are now.
    It’s largely a case of the media dictating public opinion rather than public opinion dictating media content. Although I’m certainly not Gillard’s number 1 fan, I think she’s being assessed by grandiose statements by much of the media about her incompetence, rather than by what she has achieved – which is actually not negligible, especially given her minority government. It certainly doesn’t make it any easier that Abbott has made it his priority in life to make everyone hate Gillard and to oppose everything she puts forward even when it is in line with Liberal policy.
    Given the changeability of opinion when it comes to leadership I don’t think Gillard is beyond redeeming herself in the public eye – one incident, latched onto by the media and spun positively by the media could make all the difference.
    Surely Howard reneging on his no GST election promise was no better than Gillard’s carbon tax turn around. He was forgiven – so why not her?

  100. Jimmy

    MWH – “when she made it very clear that this was something that she did not want to achieve.” When did she do this, she has all along said that she wants to put a price on carbon.

    “It is you Jimmy that ignores the reality of climate change” I am fully aware of the reality of climate change, however I am also aware of the political and economic reality which means that the massive leap you demand is impossible. What is possible is putting in place a ssytem that can easily be adapted to a higher target fro emmissions reductionsonce the scare campaign has subsided and people become comfortable with how an ETS will work.

    “If you look in the MSM (including the ABC and The Age) those saying the carbon tax is good are giving Labor pretty much all the credit” So you are fixing their mistake by attributing all the credit to the Greens, everyone in the negotiations deserve credit, Labor Green and independent but it will be Labor and the independents who pay the heaviest price for their efforts.

    John Anderson – i completly agree with your sentiments.

  101. PatriciaWA

    @Ian. Well said. Keep saying those sort of things to people around you. My three word slogan when I talk to people here in Freo is “Gillard Has Guts!” and people nod enthusiastically if they’re of my political persuasion, and agree reluctantly even if they are not.

    She also has brains, empathy and team building skills. I’ve just been re-reading Laurie Oakes’s chapter about Rudd and Gillard before his overthrow. He’s very clear about her working very hard to support her leader, to try to repair the damage his autocratic style caused the team. It was only his mistrust and questioning of her loyalty which brought that to an end. A direct quote from one ALP operative is “She tried everything possible to put the show back together. She was holding Kevin’s hand.”

    She has plenty of political nous too. I’m pretty sure that if there was another candidate who could more effectively take over the reins and restore Labor’s fortune in a way that she could not hope to, she’d be working with them.

  102. tinman_au

    I find it amusing (in a Monty Python kind of way) that the next election wont actually be “won” by either party…it will basically come down to which one is the biggest loser.

    I don’t think Kevin would choose to be swapped in to lead before the next election, I think he’s more a “Led his people from the desert to the promised land” kinda guy and would wait till the party lost to get leadership back (similar in a way to JH). That would also allow the blood bath required to clean out the Labor party of “faceless men” (Tony’s term, not mine) and maybe rebuild the party a bit using the reforms some of them seem to want to introduce.

    Heck, if they can return the power/policy base back to the rank and file “mums and dads”, they may actually end up with a party actually worth voting for…

  103. Johnfromplanetearth

    You said it Bernard “downfall based management style and quite staggering genius for alienating people ” KRudd is despised by his colleagues, they won’t go back to his dictatorial and condescending management style. I reckon the public are a wake up too. When it comes to people management KRudd has the decorum of a scavenging Hyena. He is quite mad you know.

  104. John Anderson

    Only time will time whether Brenard Keane’s view [and that of many other journalists] is correct that Gillard will be replaced. What I take exception to is the reference to a useful if fairly limited set of reforms. I don’t think an ETS that fundamentally changes the structure of the economy can be described as limited. Nor can the carbon farming initiative & the plain packaging of cigarettes whose effects will be dramatic economically and socially, particularly in 40-50 years from now. Then there’s the structural separation of Telstra and the related roll-out of the NBN; health and hospital funding reforms where the Commonwealth shares in the growth of hospital costs; the taxation of alternative fuels; the super guarantee [9% to 12%] and Comsuper reforms; higher education reforms; and welfare access reforms. There is still to come the mineral resources rent tax, the Murray Darling water plan, and [even though not on Labor’s agenda] gambling reform. Gillard may be a big loser in 2013 or sooner, but she will have an impressive policy agenda that has been implemented. For heaven’s sake, give the poor woman a break.

  105. Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)

    Jimmy,

    If you look in the MSM (including the ABC and The Age) those saying the carbon tax is good are giving Labor pretty much all the credit. Most posters on Crikey are doing the same. You even say Gillard “was able to achieve something” when she made it very clear that this was something that she did not want to achieve.

    Ian had said that “I am sure that my grandchildren and their childrens gratitude will echo with much more resonance than mine.”

    The reality is that this generation will be cursed by those that follow for knowing what was about to happen, and doing next to nothing to stop it. It is you Jimmy that ignores the reality of climate change.

  106. Suzanne Blake

    @ David @ Niclino

    Howard went to an election with the GST policy and almost lost.

    Gillard lied at the 2010 election and almost lost.

    Politicians are liers, but Gillard takes the cake, and she will be remembered for this.

  107. david

    nicolino and lying is one of the troll suzie oozie’s habits…expect nothing else from a troll of course, its how they operate..talks rubbish, knows SFA , and believe the stupidity they post.

  108. nicolino

    Suzanne, You mention lying in connection with Gillard. Lying never seemed to have hurt Howard when he lied about the GST.

  109. shepherdmarilyn

    What a suck up Ian, what is her vision beside selling refugees to Malaysia or anyone else she can?

    Malaysia has a new dirty deal that shows they were leading that idiot Bowen around by his balls.

    Read on – Malaysia having detained too many refugees is planning on relieving overcrowding by sending Burmese refugees back to Burma- and possible persecution and death.
    Malaysian has recently promised to allow asylum seekers to work under the 6P program -see herehttp://www.malaysianbar.org.my/legal/general_news/6p_programme_to_register_illegal_immigrants.html Grave reservations about what registering really means are becoming a grim reality.

    Malaysia, Myanmar Eye Swapping Immigration Detainees
    http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsindex.php?id=620444

    Malaysia and Myanmar to Swap Detainees
    http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2011/10/17/myanmar-msia-to-swap-detainees/

    18 October 2011

  110. Jimmy

    MWH – ” don’t blame the Greens for talking up THEIR achievement.” So the Greens get to claim all the good bits, get to talk of the historical signifigance, get to be hailed as saviours of the planet but the other people in the room in the negotiations just get criticised for not doing enough?

    “And look how Labor supporters are making Labor out as some great progressive party when under Labor overall taxation has LOWERED” So the only way to be progressive is to increase taxes?

    “But future generations are going to look at what was done to actually prevent climate change, and ask why was so little done, and who is to blame.” If they study their history propoerly they might actually marvel that in such a hostile political environment and a facing media intent on bringing it down a minority govt was able to achieve something that had claimed the leaders of both political parties.

    Honestly MWH I thik you are part of the reason why people dislike the greens, not prepared to live in reality and accept compromise that means something is achieved rather than nothing. You only want change in massive leaps that will never be politically possible.

  111. Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)

    I don’t blame the Greens for talking up THEIR achievement.

    But future generations are going to look at what was done to actually prevent climate change, and ask why was so little done, and who is to blame.

    And look how Labor supporters are making Labor out as some great progressive party when under Labor overall taxation has LOWERED. And this is from a tax base which was already low compared to most other advanced countries.

    Labor is a just a nicer RIGHT wing government than we would have under Abbott.

  112. Jimmy

    MWH – “I can’t think of why future generations will thank Gillard for being forced to very little when she actually wanted to do nothing.” Hasn’t stopped your beloved Greens from talking up the historic significance!!

    “The carbon tax is only a good first step if there is the intention of rapidly taking many more steps” Are we in a better position to take those steps with or without a price on Carbon?

  113. Suzanne Blake

    @ Ian

    Hope you get some flowers, box of chocolates and a Christmas card for your efforts

  114. geomac

    I cannot see a change in leadership for the ALP anymore than I can see it in the Liberal party. Rudd may have a brand but what is its value ? Other than the GFC which was a group decision by Swan , Rudd , Gillard and Tanner with Henry led advice what did brand Rudd represent ? We have a minority government and speculation about a change without considering the minor players expectations of honouring agreements seems pointless. If Abbott gains office it will also be a minority government if the libs have a lower base than Labor because he will have to depend on the Nationals of various stripes and labels. WA nationals as compared to natlibs/libnats in QLD or just Nationals elsewhere.
    On Turnbull and the Grech debacle one thing puzzles me. Abetz was knee deep in the bogus questions and inquiry and hammed it up to look like he was a Perry Mason intellect but no fallout for him. I see some official is in trouble for providing questions to the Greens and who is among the throng saying that was not appropriate but Abetz. I find it extraordinary that Abetz is even allowed to be part of a senate inquiry at all . Another Rudd mistake in not pursuing an obvious act of deceit to make himself look magnanimous like the Costello appointment.

  115. Jimmy

    DavidK – “What a wish list. If Labor controlled both houses; as Howard did and screwed us all; or would work with the Greens, we might have been in with a chance. But Labor hasn’t and won’t.”

    Have a look at that list and compare it to what Labor has done/planning in govt –
    Increase pensions, Rudd did this and it will be increased more undre the Carbon tax.
    The mining tax will be passed soon and while it might not be as big as some would want it is bigger than what we have presently.
    get up the national disability insurance scheme – Only a matter of time.
    “begin a govt owned and operated manufacturing plant for wind turbines and solar panels” Never going to happen but it is investing billions of dollars into renewables run by the private sector so the end result will actually better value for money.

    So only the national hoilday, dental care, gay marriage (although big advancements in the recognition of same sex partners has been made) and the intervention (which apparently most people effected actually want) remain. To me that is a pretty good result from a “wishlist”

  116. Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)

    Ian,

    I can’t think of why future generations will thank Gillard for being forced to very little when she actually wanted to do nothing.

    The carbon tax is only a good first step if there is the intention of rapidly taking many more steps. Very rapidly. And much bigger steps. I don’t see any sign of Labor having ever wanted to take real action, or of them wanting to do much more now.

    Which is worse – denying that climate change is a problem or pretending that we are taking real action to prevent it when we are doing anything but?

  117. davidk

    @ Jim Reiher
    What a wish list. If Labor controlled both houses; as Howard did and screwed us all; or would work with the Greens, we might have been in with a chance. But Labor hasn’t and won’t.

  118. Ian

    Sent this to the PM yesterday. Don’t really care what the right thinks

    Dear Prime Minister,

    Firstly, my sincere congratulations on the passing of the Carbon Reduction Scheme. I am sure that my grandchildren and their childrens gratitude will echo with much more resonance than mine. The future,as always, has much to thank the past for. This is no exception. Again, thank you.

    As I watch the daily political debate I can’t help but at times to feeling a disquieting coldness overtake me. It’s as if the heart of the old time knockabout, she’ll be right Aussie has been clenched in a corrupted fist of hate, bile and venom. The personal attacks on yourself have been particularly disturbing. No Australian worker, and you are one, should ever be subjected to that. It really is unAustralian. How and where you get the strength to fight it day after day I have no idea. I, like millions of others are just thankful that you find the courage to do so.

    In those times when you find yourself doubting the validity of your beliefs, your vision of the countrys’ future, the steadfastness of your colleagues beliefs please remember that for every Australian that doubts you one Australian believes in you. That the polls say different is superflous. The last ballot boxes spoke truthfully. I truly believe that in the cheap cardboard voting booth Australians, aware of the importance of their individual action, vote in the best interests of this country. It was so in 2007, it was so in 2010 and will be so in 2013.

    Pay no attention to those who, by not understanding the true nature of courage, seek only to destroy it. To those to whom the meaning of Honour is not the selfless actions of the brave, the courage of independent thought guided by an empathatic awareness of the foibles of humanity. They believe Honour to be a useful addition to the school motto. Give them no heed.

    Millions of Australians believe in you and your journey. Draw on our strength.

  119. Billy Blogs

    Self interest will prevent Rudd from getting the job again. Those who knifed him know that revenge is just around the corner if they give him half a chance. Most of the power heads in the ALP would be kicked up the arse if Rudd was calling the shots leaving nothing but juniors.

    Most of them would then lose their seat at the next election and the heavyweights will resign knowing they would otherwise spend years in opposition.

    The only hope for the ALP is to promote a Smith-type person who will survive an election and claw back some of the more marginal seats that would be lost in a 7% swing. Then have another look at the leadership toward the end of Abbott’s first term with an aim to recover more seats.

  120. Kez

    Bernard
    Can you Canberra types please stop talking up Rudd. He must not be allowed to come back as he is a flesh-creepingly awful person who couldn’t do the job the first time around.

    Also, have you noticed how the Coalition is Rudd’s new best friend? Why? Because they know that with him back there’s no question they’ll win the next election.

    Sadly, Julia is not doing well. But surely there MUST be someone else? Anyone? (but not Stephen Smith, either)

  121. Ruprecht

    Yawn.

    I don’t need a person in Canberra to speculate on my berhalf.

    Sad for BK that this article is put in the same issue that Gawenda says that BK offers a unique perspective on Canberra that no one else has.

    There’s a lot of actual stuff going on. More policy discussion, less horse race please.

  122. Suzanne Blake

    @ Perry Gretton

    Yes Opposition Leaders can recover (if they are given time),

    The PM cannot. Dead Women Walking – simple as that

  123. Perry Gretton

    If memory serves me well, John Key, Kiwi PM, had a poll rating as Opposition leader barely above 20% at one stage before he won the election. Just sayin’.

  124. Son of foro

    SB

    You want Casey Stoner to lead the Libs? That’s a dream team!

  125. kerneels

    Bernard,
    Hope you don’t mind me correcting you, but “napsack” is actually spelt “knapsack”.

  126. Michael Hutak

    More brand analysis. I’m so tired of brand analysis.

    The relegation of politics as nothing but another arena for the application of marketing is what is causing the cancerous disrespect for all politicians and the destruction of faith in political systems to enact change according to a collective will expressed in the franchise.

    Tanner is right, this is all content, no substance, a sideshow apparently without end.

  127. Jimmy

    Joe Magill – I posted something similar earlier but my criticism’s are still in moderation.

  128. Jimmy

    Matticus – “First step I think is get a Super Profits Tax sorted, that money could really help out” That will happen very shortly, it has the numbers to pass both houses.

    SB – Neither of those will happen before the next election. Morrison has shown nothing to demonstrate he has any sort of vision, and SMith is a steady performer without being a standout, he is better suited to defence or finance than being leader or treasurer.

  129. DF

    @ Jim Reiher

    Yes. Agree 100%.

    Excuse my literary lapse but so many cliches come to mind. If you’re going to go down, go down with a bang, not a whimper. A coward dies a thousand deaths, a brave man only one. Faint heart ne’er won a maiden’s hand. Grasp the nettle, seize the day. Might as well get killed for a sheep as for a lamb. And finally… what have they got to lose?

  130. Suzanne Blake

    Jimmy,

    “As I have said before Abbott is a fool and NOT a leader. They change him and Labors vote will go to 22%, simple as that” Abbott is holding the Libs back but who would replace him?

    Both Labor and Liberal are devoid of QUALITY leaders.

    I think Stephen Smith from Labor
    I think Scott Morrison from LNP or Stoner if he makes the move to federal

  131. matticus

    Jim Reiher for PM 2013 ;D If that list was completed I think I would feel proud to be an Australian.

    Take the rare opportunity of having power in both houses, and get things done, Rudd didn’t get that chance and Abbott won’t (if he’s in).

    First step I think is get a Super Profits Tax sorted, that money could really help out. Let the mining corps have their whinge and print ads all through the News Ltd papers, so what, do it anyway, they’ll survive. No better time to talk about it again with the OWS movement on.

  132. Joe Magill

    Yawn. Oh look, another article about a leadership challenge. Rivetting.

  133. Edward James

    Bernard Keane
    Will any journalist ever return to asking again those questions which Kevin Rudd refused to answer while he was running interference for the Goss Labor government in Queensland. The questions relate to his part in the destruction of documents relating to the abuse of children who were in the care of state intuitions? Party branding with expensive bought and paid for spin, reminds me a little of the way cattle rustlers would resort to over branding duffed cattle, by for example burning a B over a P. When Rudd was on the ropes recovering from being stabbed in the back by Labor Party members, were were the bought and paid for media with those unanswered yet probing questions? Edward James

    http://bit.ly/EJ_PNewsAds

  134. enquvist

    @ Jim Reiher
    ahhhh that is a DREAM list of events. You had me salivating!
    And I agree also about the foetal position should Abbott become PM.
    No gay marriage allowed, no straight divorce allowed, no carbon tax, no nothin’!

  135. Luke Miller

    Upboat for hilarious Downfall reference

  136. Jimmy

    SB – You still haven’t said why my logic in my original post is wrong!

    “As I have said before Abbott is a fool and NOT a leader. They change him and Labors vote will go to 22%, simple as that” Abbott is holding the Libs back but who would replace him?

  137. Suzanne Blake

    Jimmy – perhaps, but his ego gets in the way of his judgement most of the time.

    He is angry, gets wound up by Queenslanders and supporters and anythung could happen.

    Where do you think the leaks are coming from?

    Rudd or someone else? and if so who

  138. Jimmy

    Enquvist – Rudd didn’t solve any of those issues either, my question is what did Rudd actually do that is better than what Gillard has done?

  139. Jean

    Ah, come on- Rudd and Turnbull have been getting the underdog vote in the opinion polls- put either back as party leader and everyone would hate them again 🙂

  140. Jim Reiher

    Labor have been their own worst enemy. If they had any real courage, any serious survival strategy they would begin a serious reformning agenda including:

    – increase the mining tax (even if it means breaking the deal Ms Gillard did with them three days after knifing Mr Rudd)
    – use that money to immediately increase pensions (will Mr Abbott take it back?)
    – put dental care under medicare (will Mr Abbott end that?)
    – get up the national disability insurance scheme
    – end the intervention in the NT
    – institutue a national holiday celebrating our indigenous people and their heritage (let’s see Mr Abbott try to undo that one)
    – change media ownership laws to lower the amount that any one person or company can own
    – begin a govt owned and operated manufacturing plant for wind turbines and solar panels – out near Hazelwood, and offer people out there more jobs in clean energy work…
    – introduce gay marriage (cant see the Libs undoing that one either)
    – and more….

    What might happen? They lose the next election?
    You have to be joking!?
    That looks so certain that a radical action plan of serious reform might just save them.

    So to Labor out there…. I have to cry out in desparation: Go down fighting you cowards! Sack your conservative advisors and minders and DO SOMETHING you frightened poll-driven gutless wonders!

    The only think I can image worse right now, than impotent Labor, is an Abbott led hyper-conservative govt. That thought causes me to fall into the fetal position, shaking ….

  141. Suzanne Blake

    Jimmy

    As I have said before Abbott is a fool and NOT a leader. They change him and Labors vote will go to 22%, simple as that

  142. Jimmy

    SB – Rudd might believe all that but it doesn’t make it fact. As I said he has more to lose than gain from toppling Gillard prior to the next election.

  143. enquvist

    What has she done wrong? Well the troops are still o/s, live cattle export sans mandatory stunning is still going strong, gay marriage is still a no no, and that’s just my own personal reasons for losing faith in her. The off shore immigration processing plan made her look very bad, and though I’m all for the carbon tax, there’s a lot of people (sadly I suspect, a majority these days) are against it. She doesn’t come across as a warm person, and I think that’s a big mistake and she should have worked harder to develop a warmer presence. I’m not sucked in by News Ltd’s propaganda but there’s no denying there’s a big stink hanging over her head, and I believe, given a public vote – Rudd or Gillard as PM – she’d lose.

  144. Jimmy

    SB – “Its impossible now for Gillard to win, her reputation is trashed by lying and now all the bad press that is constant.” That is why Abbott is her best chance right now, his net approval is about as bad as her’s and there is no way he can actually do all that he is promising.

    As for history judging, history generally let’s the minor politics disappear and focus on the major policies and a Cabon price, Paid Parental Leave, a National cirriculum, disability incusrance, MRRT etc will sit pretty well.

  145. Suzanne Blake

    Jimmy

    I actually believe in Rudd’s ego.

    He WANTS to prove them wrong – the people who axed him

    He WANTS to re-write his history

    He WANTS to have it appear it was continuous PMship, so I think he will have a move before years end. So he can say he was PM in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 etc.

    He BELIEVES he can be the white knight that saves Labor.

    He WANTS to restore his tattered reputation on the World stage. He has lost all face in Asia. One you are sacked, you get a nothing job and look out the window. its similar here.

  146. Jimmy

    Son of foro – It is interesting that every poll shows Abbott is a drag on the Libs vote, but if they were to change who would they go to, Hockey is a joke and Turnbull won’t continue the opposition to the carbon tax which is bolstering the Libs vote, I can’t see them changing either, we will have Abbott V Gillard in 2013.

    I do agree though the polls will turn especially with Abbott worrying business currently and sush a big black hole in is budget. In fact I think to a dgree they already have, it just a matter of whether they will come back far enough.

  147. PatriciaWA

    What crap, Bernard!

    Julia Gillard doesn’t need a brand! She has guts, brains and leadership skills. Commentators like you, those at Fairfax, News Ltd and the ABC keep telling us she’s finished and her government done for but it’s still holding together and she is still standing.

    Stop writing about polls, regime change and what Abbott looks like and get on with reporting on things like policy analysis, climate change phenomena, economic data and some real news!

    Gillard has guts!

  148. Suzanne Blake

    @ Son of f0ro

    Its impossible now for Gillard to win, her reputation is trashed by lying and now all the bad press that is constant.

    She will never win an election, and history will judge her and replay that lie video in any memorial / backgrounder

  149. Jimmy

    Enquvist – What has Gillard got so wrong that Rudd got so right?

    SB – I don’t see any polls showing 100,000 to 1 against the ALP and my post wasn’t pro labor (I actually acknowledge the unliklihood of Gillard winning the next election) but merely pointing out Labor and any prospective leaders of Labor have nothing to gain from changing leaders and a lot to lose. If there is a flaw in my logic please feel free to discuss it.

    Oh and I am still waiting for evidence from many of your previous assertions!!

  150. Son of foro

    No they won’t. The polls will start to turn around, the internal tensions in the Liberal Party will bubble up, Abbott will be STABBED IN THE BACK BY FACELESS BACKROOM HEAVIES!!!! and Gillard will win the next election.

  151. Suzanne Blake

    Jimmy, you are to be congratulated. With the enemy out numbering you 100,000 to 1, you are still loyal to labor

    Impressive Jimmy

  152. enquvist

    I voted for Rudd as PM and I STILL want Rudd as PM. Although for a while there, I liked the idea of a female PM (finally Australia got with the times!) sadly I think it’s the wrong female and she’s wrecked it for other women’s chances to get into that position for a long time to come. This country already has a pretty misogynistic undertone and they’ll not forget Gillard (or stop using her as a reason no other woman should be PM for a long time to come).

  153. Jimmy

    Also why is Crikey bothering with this sort of thing, why are we getting polls and leadershio spills rather than policy analysis?

  154. Jimmy

    The assertion that Gillard can’t lead the ALP to the next election neglects a few very important points.
    First, any leadership change will trigger an election meaning which without a significant improvement in the polls the ALP will lose (and that improvement will not come from changing leaders again). This means that the ALP will in effect reduce the time they are in power, hardly an entincing option. Plus the ALP need this term to go as long past the Carbon price introduction as possible as the longer they go the worse Abbott looks and the better they do.
    Second, who would want to take over the leadership when they are almost certain to lose when they can start with a clean sheet and an Abbott lead govt after the election who will be unable to achieve his promises, especially with a hostile Senate.
    Third, this govt still has to get through things like the MRRT which are unpopular in some sectors so any prospective new leader will let Gillard take the hit’s for that.

  155. Jimmy

    This articles assertion that Gillard can’t lead the ALP to the next election neglects a few very important points.
    First, any leadership change will trigger an election meaning which without a significant improvement in the polls the ALP will lose (and that improvement will not come from changing leaders again). This means that the ALP will in effect reduce the time they are in power, hardly an entincing option. Plus the ALP need this term to go as long past the Carbon price introduction as possible as the longer they go the worse Abbott looks and the better they do.
    Second, who would want to take over the leadership when they are almost certain to lose when they can start with a clean sheet and an Abbott lead govt after the election who will be unable to achieve his promises, especially with a hostile Senate.
    Third, this govt still has to get through things like the MRRT which are unpopular in some sectors so any prospective new leader will let Gillard take the hit’s for that.

    Also why is Crikey bothering with this sort of thing, why are we getting polls and leadershio spills rather than policy analysis?

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