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The good bus Australia has been chugging along without a driver now for several weeks, but with a boost from independent suspension we’ve nearly reached destination PM.
Either today or tomorrow independents Bob Katter, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott — who’ve spent the last fortnight prowling parliament house, dining with ex-PMs, and studying costings — will announce whether they are supporting a government led by Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard.
The momenteum that swept Abbott up during the election campaign seems to have thrown him back down amongst a difficult few weeks of negotiations, and several papers are leading with the Coalition’s pessimism in gaining government.
Will the NBN be enough to convince the country conservatives to head over to Labor? Can the Coalition guilt the independents with their conservative backgrounds? Or will they split and force us to (gulp) head back to the polls? And how is any government going to please all the different groups now involved?
Here’s a look at what the commentariat are predicting:
The Australian
Sid Maher and Paul Maley: Coalition’s hopes for power sinks
The Coalition is increasingly pessimistic about its chances of winning the support of the three rural independents it needs to take power.
Kenneth Wiltshire: On all counts, Coalition deserves Independents
Wilkie is no longer a true independent; he is a captive of the Greens and Labor. It might also be reasonably conjectured that the citizens of these three country electorates would be further alienated from Labor now that Julia Gillard has entered her Faustian pact with the Greens.
Russell Trood: Alliance partners are worlds apart
On issue after issue, Labor is, as it were, from Venus and the Greens are from Mars. And in case it has escaped the independents’ attention, the divergence in Greens and Labor ideas on foreign and defence policy is as great as in any area.
Foreign policy was little debated during the election campaign, but this will change if the Labor-Greens alliance is to be an element of a new Gillard government.
Sydney Morning Herald
Phillip Coorey: Abbott is facing a victory too far away
According to those familiar with negotiations with both parties, Gillard has outperformed Abbott. One who witnessed a round of talks with both leaders said Abbott tended to lecture more than negotiate and, in one meeting, broke into a spiel against Labor - as if he were still on the election campaign.
If Abbott prevails this week, he will be a Liberal superhero. If he falls short, he will not be diminished. But the game will change.
The Age
Michelle Grattan and David Humphries: Windsor makes power play for the bush
As the nation awaits the outcome of the long-ago election, which could come today or perhaps tomorrow, one of the key independents has demanded big changes in the way government handles the needs of regional Australia.
The Daily Telegraph
Malcolm Farr: Bitterness will surface after the dust settles
Scores of MPs on both sides will have been writing seething lists of reasons why their party did not succeed.
They have been tucked into back pockets for now, but the creation of a minority government, no matter the flavour, will see them taken out of storage and angry debates and accusations will follow.
Simon Benson: Fed up voters sick of delays
Most Australians are now demanding a resolution to the federal election deadlock and would prefer another election over a hung parliament, regardless of which party the independents decide to back.
Herald Sun
Ben Packham: Coalition hopes of forming government slip
A wave of pessimism is sweeping Coalition ranks as senior Opposition MPs tip that Labor will seal a deal to form government as early as today.
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18 Comments
We all seem impatient, Netherlands has been in limbo for 3 months.
Yeah but the Netherlands have wacky baccy cafes to chill everyone out
I’m ambivalent about these delays; about the fact that three MP’s can hold the ‘Country to ransom’. That side of my noggin is increasingly of the opinion that this should be an illegal process.
NO individual should be able to force an entire Government into limbo.
However…, the joy of watching the two Party construct under siege is compelling. To watch them smiling like Cheshire cats at people that they would normally brush off with no thought, who currently they would like to knee in the nuts;-now that’s FUN!!
Unfortunately no matter what the outcome, we will be stuck with two shades of the same colour. At least they won’t have an easy run.
Interesting times are upon us…
@ Mook
They have cleaned up their act, the cafe’s of the 80’s are much straighter now.
The independents are merely going through due process to tick all the right boxes before they make the only choice they could make, which as I’ve said all along is to back Labor.
Meanwhile our political punditry continue to prattle on, mentally masturbating over ever possible permutation and outrage against democracy they can think of simply to fill the void.
This is something that actually should concern us all. Just imagine how they would react if we were ever to face a REAL crisis
ELAN, don’t you think the major parties have made a practice of “holding the country to ransom” for years?
These independents have just as much democratic mandate to flex their muscles as any cabinet minister or marginal-seat backbencher, and more so than a lot of party faction leaders.
It’s just a pity that, so far ,they show no more insight into what’s wrong with Canberra than the parties do. They start off talking about reform of processes, but in the end they all seem to be haggling over shopping lists.
The Coalition have made a hash of the negotiations, trying to scare them with voters’ preferences instead of stepping forward with fresh ideas. They wasted their time with Wilkie (who seems to have set them up with the hospital thing, first demanding $1 billion then calling his own figure “over the top” when they agreed to it.)
Gillard is starting to look very pleased with herself, even though it was her own abysmal failure to win a second term outright that has created this situation.
What a pack of monkeys.
Remember they are still counting the votes , so all those wanting another election will still have to wait even longer and a fresh election would not be kind to Abbott and the “Costingsgate ” showing up what a bunch of sly mean and tricky mob the Fibs are. What’s the rush ?
@Harry
Exactly. The chicken little conservatives will have plenty of time to run around screaming the sky is falling once this is finalized anyway.
You know, I actually like the fact that the MSM has been forced into a virtual vacuum. There has been so little news to report on that everything they have had to say is seen for what it is - pure speculation!
It certainly says something about this country that they have so few people who can count up to over 10 that it takes so long to declare the result.
“ELAN, don’t you think the major parties have made a practice of “holding the country to ransom” for years?”
………..I was aware of that FC……….
Thanks for that. Suggesting that I am supportive of Laberals, has caused extreme nausea.
I’m still not convinced that this isn’t a good thing for Australia: the public service is not doing anything major - this could be a chance to see what’s necessary, what’s not, and people moved into more vital areas, rather than the massive bureaucracy we currently have.
Surely the Daily Telegraph can be ignored: another election - as we’ve seen how useless Abbott, (good Lord above) Hockey, Robb and Hissy Pyne are, an election would deliver it to the crooks fo the NSW Right. No-one wants that.
Malcolm Fraser made the point on Q&A the other night, only half joking, that Italy has done very well for many years, virtually without a government.
It made me think of the last time Sydney parking inspectors went on strike. You might expect chaos on the streets, but in fact it was no easier or harder to drive around or find a parking spot than usual. In their bid for more pay, all the parking inspectors did was advertise their own uselessness (except as revenue collectors, a job that could be done better by the RTA).
I’d like to see several months without a government in Canberra. We might be astonished to find that the sky does not fall in, the hospitals and schools and trains would keep running as usual, until the Supply Act runs out. We might start to notice that federal government does not do much of the heavy lifting in Australia, all it does is act as a gatekeeper to the national budget and draw lots of attention to itself.
Did Russell Trood forget that he was booted out himself? Do we really have to have the OO’s continual campsign to install Tony infecting us like a virus?
What actually is Abbott’s plan? A plan to stop all work and do nothing but smash up refugees.
That is the only frigging thing he campsigned for.
Since the election, Labor’s leadership has appeared chastened, modest, calm, conciliatory and hopeful.
In contrast, Abbott is belligerent, Robb is hyperventilating, Hockey is dumbfounded, Pyne is presumptuous, and up here, the execrable Warren Entsch can’t resist putting the boot into Bob Katter.
Their lack of discipline alone should be enough to make the Indies decide against them.
As I said a few days ago, given her background Gillard is a practised negotiator, whereas Abbott only knows threat and bluster … and sloganeering. He’s out of his depth in this process and he knows it.
Ken Wiltshire’s piece makes the astonishing claim that Edmund Burke would advise the independents to support the coalition because of an opinion poll that the majority within their electorates would prefer them to do so.
In his famous speech to the Electors of Bristol, Burke makes the very opposite point - that MPs should respect the views of their electorates but should exercise their judgement on the basis of what is good for the nation. Wiltshire quotes part of the speech - without quoting the following sentence that starts with ‘but …’ or the rest of the speech which goes to demolishing the sentence before the ‘but …’
See my post under ‘Essential: voters expect another poll … and expect the Coalition to win’
I find it funny that journalists can know what a 19th politician thinks about modern Australian politics.
Maybe someone should find out what Machiavelli, Jefferson and Churchill’s thoughts about the Australian election are. I’d be fascinated to know.
Maybe one of them can coach one last lucid comment from Margaret Thatcher telling the independents to support the Coalition. Now that sounds like a task for an enterprising News Ltd journo.