Gillard may sneak over the line

Three days since the election and the job of PM is still up for grabs.

Independents Bob Katter, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott have become household names overnight as it becomes obvious that we will have a hung parliament and they will decide the government. Right now both parties seem likely to win 73 seats a piece, but Denison is still in doubt in Tasmania, as is Hasluck in WA.

The Daily Telegraph indicates that Gillard may have the support of the two NSW Independents, which along with Greens MP Adam Bandt in Melbourne, would be enough to get her over the line. Independent MP Rob Oakeshott may even be offered a ministry.

I believe the question in these negotiations is: Which party is best placed to provide stable government?” said Gillard at a press conference in Canberra yesterday. “That requires of course being able to deal with the Parliament, in the House of Representatives and the Senate. It requires having a positive plan for the nation’s future. It requires having properly costed policies.”

How will this play out? Can a hung parliament work? Who is best placed to manage a minority government? Here’s a snapshot of what the commentariat are saying.

The Australian

Dennis Shanahan: Dead heat makes a singular choice at least twice as hard

…the argument over which vote counts is likely to be less important than which side can hold together and govern and make good on their promises. The independents, keen not to be seen selling their support, will have to choose which side they believe not only has the right to govern but can also govern and give Australia back political stability and certainty.

Niki Savva: Values overboard as ship of state takes on water

Get set for more spending, higher taxes and more regulation with one UnReal Prime Minister and two de facto prime ministers, Bob Brown and Tony Windsor and the prospect of an early double dissolution election.

Arrivederci Australia. Ciao to Italy in the Pacific.

Samantha Maiden: Party lobbying firms regroup

The hung parliament is expected to be a bonanza for lobby groups.

Jennifer Hewett: Both parties face independents suspicious of reform

Even Kevin Rudd at his most ambitious would never have realised the NBN could offer such a direct pay-off for Labor holding power.And Wayne Swan clearly didn’t appreciate that the depth of West Australian and Queensland antagonism to the mining tax might determine whether he could stay on as Labor Treasurer for another three years.

Peter van Onselen: Lib anger at failure to use funds effectively

Questions are being asked inside the Coalition about poor decision-making that might have cost it the chance to win the election outright. Late candidate preselections, poor funding for key seats and large-scale campaigns in safe conservative electorates between Nationals and Liberals made Tony Abbott’s job of seizing the prime ministership much more difficult than it needed to be.

Samantha Maiden: It ain’t over till the High Court sings

Face it — this election isn’t over until someone has taken it to the High Court.

The Age

Michelle Grattan: Infighting sours Gillard’s pitch

But just as the PM was trying to emphasise Labor’s stability, a former New South Wales Labor premier undercut her message by lashing out at key Right faction figures behind the leadership coup that installed her.

Tim Colebatch: Political values redefined

It’s 70 years since Australians have voted in a hung parliament. It’s unusual for us, but normal for most Western democracies. Their experience shows it doesn’t necessarily lead to weak government. If there is discipline and realism among the partners, it can lead to reforms with a wider base of support than any one party can muster.

Sydney Morning Herald

Phillip Coorey: Disparities in voters’ priorities are even more stark now

Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Bob Katter are from the country yet their concerns are universal. They have mentioned water, communications and broadband, health and dental care and climate change. None has mentioned boats, debt, immigrants, or great big new taxes.

Julia Baird: Gillard wins victory of sorts by playing down female factor

Appropriately, and triumphantly, at the moment it mattered most, Julia Gillard’s gender was irrelevant… as votes were counted, graphs stacked, electorates toppled, and kegs nervously drained, the fact that this election was being contested by a woman — our first female prime minister, no less — was not really of any great concern.

Courier-Mail

Dennis Atkins: Parties put spin on result as basis for negotiation with independents

The hardest thing for a governing political party to do after a drubbing at the end of a brutal and bruising five-week election campaign which was neither won nor lost is to come out and present a voice of stability and continuity.

Daily Telegraph

Malcolm Farr: Policy daring-do doesn’t rate

Liberal leader Tony Abbott is better equipped by experience to manage a minority government, simply because he has spent his political life in a coalition. Soon after taking the Opposition leadership Mr Abbott calmed down Liberal-Nationals tensions. Significantly, he stopped the Nationals Barnaby Joyce attacking Liberal policy and coaxed him into the shadow ministry.

Julia Gillard doesn’t have the same background. Bargaining among the Labor factions isn’t the same.


59 Comments

  1. Troy C
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    Coalition marginal favourites at Centrebet. $1.87 v $1.90. It’s anyone’s game, surely.

  2. Astro
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    The first day someone is sick, or if Rudd resigns etc it all crashes back to Earth.

    These rumours are planted leaks to sharpen the negotiations

  3. Space Kidette
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    Nice try. Independent’s will not make a call until ALL the cards are on the table. We could be waiting til next week for a decision. Come on AEC - do you want me to go out and pick up the postals from Hasluck, for you?

    (P.S. AEC are doing a great job - I am just impatient!)

  4. Acidic Muse
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    The more we hear the Independants speak about the things that are important to them, the more spiritually Centre Left they sound. Oakeshot is well to the left of Labor on issues like assylum seekers and climate change. His idea of a Turnball Ministry in a Gillard Government would have broad appeal but unlikely to happen with Mal quietly sharpening his knives with an eye to taking the leadership back from Mr Rabbit

  5. joso1
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    Malcolm Farr’s logic seems pretty wacky

  6. Space Kidette
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    I am learning to love Tony Windsor! He just served it up to the Daily Telegraph over claims that Labour has the edge. He said he “wouldn’t be taking them on as his political advisor”.

  7. asdusty
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    Sigh, all these exorbidantly paid commentators and only one is talking any sense.
    Anyway, the reality of this situation is that these independents are old fashioned ‘wet’ liberals who no longer identify with the far right position of the Coalition. Fortunately for Australia the Labor party has drifted so far to the right they may very well make perfect bedfellows. Throw into the mix a senate controlled by the Greens and things are looking better for Labour, given Oakeshott’s recent rumblings in regards a workable government. However, in this situation, anything could happen…how about Bob Katter for PM?

  8. freecountry
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    Same old same old from the professional opinion-peddlers. All trying to show they’re cleverer than each other by predicting what will happen next.

    Very little in the way of suggesting to the major parties how they have failed, how they could clean up their acts and really show the independents the meaning of the phrase “moving forward”. That won’t be by boasting or making empty claims about legitimacy, incumbency, or alternate ways of interpreting the vote results.

  9. Oscar Jones
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 10:48 am | Permalink

    I breached my own rules and read just one-Malcolm Farr. What an idiot.

  10. Troy C
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    the more spiritually Centre Left they sound

    Anyone can sound concerned about health, education, climate etc. That’s all good and nice. But they will be punished mercilessly by their electorates if they climb into the sack with the ALP.

  11. Troy C
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    given Oakeshott’s recent rumblings in regards a workable government.

    The idea that the Senate should dictate the formation of the House is a load of nonsense. History is full of examples of governments successfully negotiating a hostile senate. Howard did it for three terms.

  12. asdusty
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    @Troy C
    The size of these independents margins shows that they are loved by their constituancy. The numbers also tell you that there is no love for either major party in those electorates. If these guys can achieve good results for the people they represent, I dont think the voters will really care who they formed a government with.

  13. Space Kidette
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    I think I both sides of politics discounted the effect of social media, such as Twitter and Facebook. Usually in the world of campainging you flog your message to the mainstream media, repeat it every campaign day at every opportunity, and wait for it to sink in and the only real feedback came on election day, with a few polls giving some indications along the way.

    But today, the speed of communication is enormous. The old ‘bush telegraph’ on mega-steroids.
    The feedback came thick and fast. And I don’t think anyone, even that old wiley campaigner Richo, actually realised what was happening. They (both major parties) were getting feedback fast, trying to correct, only to get feedback fast that people thought, the correction was bs and that the parties lacked consistency.

    Think about the number of messages and amount of communication that flew during that campaign it would have reflected an enormous amount more than the previous election experienced, and god knows how much more than the one before it. We had various polls providing feedback almost daily. This pretty much left the old campaigning rule book pretty much needing a shredding.

  14. asdusty
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    @Troy C
    “Howard did it for three terms.”
    No, he didnt. Howard had Brian Harradine. But even Harradine wouldnt let Howard get away with some of his more extreme ideological legislation eg Work choices.

  15. Troy C
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 11:03 am | Permalink

    The size of these independents margins shows that they are loved by their constituancy.

    It’s easy to be loved when you’re Arthur and Martha. Every time the independents have to take sides, make decisions, their opponents will accumulate. When they have more opponents than supporters, they are toast. They don’t have any opponents at the moment because they haven’t made any decisions.

  16. Troy C
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    But even Harradine wouldnt let Howard get away with some of his more extreme ideological legislation eg Work choices.

    That was my point. Howard had to negotiate with non-Liberal senators to get his legislation passed. He did it successfully for three terms.

  17. Go for it!
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    People should settle down

    The result is still unclear and might not be known till friday week The ALP has an outside chance of picking up two of the seats in play and with the Green would be able to form a Govt without the independents.
    The most disappointing thing about this election is that one state QLD decided the election for the rest of us. I note the media dont want to comment on this FACT!
    In the future no party will be willing to upset this backward redneck Sstate and thats bad for the rest of us.

  18. freecountry
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    Hostile Senates are the exception rather than the norm. That’s by constitutional design, not by accident. Staggering and double-length Senator terms ensure that changes to Senate composition tend to lag behind changes to government. It generally takes a long period of re-election and voter satisfaction before a single party is able to control both houses.

    For the left wing media to claim that the leanings of the Senate should influence the independents’ choices is counterproductive. Equally counterproductive is the Australian today trying to blackmail the independents with their electorates’ antipathy towards Labor.

    The most helpful message from the media right now would be: All bets are off. Both major parties have failed to impress the public and must now lift their game. Whichever party is not prepared to do that, can spend some time rethinking its attitude in opposition whilst grooming its next leader.

  19. freecountry
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    Correction: I meant to say “Hostile Senates are the norm rather than the exception.

  20. freecountry
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    GO FOR IT - Isn’t it just infuriating when some people are too stupid to see everything your way!

  21. Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 11:52 am | Permalink

    Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Bob Katter are from the country yet their concerns are universal. They have mentioned water, communications and broadband, health and dental care and climate change.

    None has mentioned boats, debt, immigrants, or great big new taxes.”

    That really has to be a good outcome, Australia, all things considered. Well done! About the best that could be hoped for this time around, anyhow.

    Rob Oakeshott’s comments this morning about moving beyond party squabbling seem to have occasioned little comment so far, possibly because his words were as unfamiliar to cynical TV talking heads as the Sermon on the Mount.

    Out of the full house of 150 we should be able to get a decent cabinet together.

    If I was Bill Shorten’s mother in law, I’d be calling on Rob Oakeshott to put together a dream national unity cabinet.

    I’d tell him he could do what he likes, as long as guarantees electoral reform, better parliamentary practices, open, responsive government and evidence-based policies.

    I might also insist he gives Christine Milne, Scott Ludlam and Malcolm Turbull senior jobs and doesn’t over-promote Bill.

    Malcolm Turnbull - Communications Minister
    Wayne Swan - Treasurer
    Julia Gillard - Education

  22. Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    Damn, I never meant to publish my notes at the end of the last comment. That’s why I wouldn’t make a good GG. Too careless.

  23. Aussiesue
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 11:58 am | Permalink

    Has anyone explained the mechanics of what has to happen for a government to be formed? For instance, do the independents et al have to actually sign on to a coalition or can they just cooperate on a case by case basis? Does Gillard or Abbott have to prove to the GG cooperation of a certain number of the independents in some way? What about an article on this…

  24. geomac
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    TROY C
    Harradine at least was looknig after his state in a fashion and I accepted that. Coulson however was a different matter and that was totally unacceptable and thankfully the three independents plus the new green member appear to be above that. Perhaps the hung scenario is a good thing in the sense that negotiation and common sense is needed rather than the confected rage and insults used to denigrate policies just to be opposed.
    Abbott using four work related deaths as a political tool disqualified him for high office in my mind. The more so since he is strongly against industrial manslaughter laws. It was obscene. Either way it will be interesting to have a government that needs some form of consensus rather than just majority numbers.

  25. Space Kidette
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    I am one of those qld rednecks and resent the implication you are trying to make in that huge generalisation!

  26. Spare US
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 12:08 pm | Permalink

    @Acidic Muse
    The sooner Mr Rabbit runs off to Wonderland with Howard the better, I think. Malcolm Turnbull was sharp witted and very relaxed on QANDA last night - can afford to be given his 11.5 swing with NO Liberal livery and NO Mr Rabbit posters. Voters must have thought he was an Independent. Hmmm cross benches for MT?

    Maybe we can get him to lead the new Australian Independents Movement (Aim) - make a good treasurer.

    My guess is that Mr Rabbitt will not last till the next election - the Catholic Church is calling for a rescuer.

    Mr Turnbull would now be the PM if he had been allowed to remain leader - The Libs are just so full of neanderthals. How on earth could you allow them to Govern anything, ANYWHERE.

    Nice to see whacky Tuckey gone…..but his replacement? Independent National? What a joke….surely Australia can do better then this bunch of losers? Surely…

  27. Go for it!
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

    Space kiddie Im just telling it like it is now QLD will hold the rest of us and all political parties to ransom and will demand what they want and the weak gutted pollies will roll over.
    Apart form QLD the ALP won the election easily.

    Talk about idiots I heard one QLD voter saying in Rudds seat she was voting AGAINST Rudd to protest at his sacking - I rest my case.

  28. Sascha
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

    Maybe Queensland is a “Battleground State” because we don’t just blindly vote along party lines. Three cheers for democracy! I seriously couldn’t be happier with this result, its great to see the party faithful crying in their soup.

    Go for it- HAHAHAHAHAHHA hahahah hah hmmm : )

  29. Troy C
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

    Abbott using four work related deaths as a political tool disqualified him for high office in my mind.

    If those work-related deaths had happened on the Coalition’s watch, you could bet the farm that the unions would be using it for political profit.

  30. Space Kidette
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

    Go For It!

    Yes, judge a whole state by the statement of one! At least us redneck qlders voted. What about the those that squandered their right to vote by choosing an ass!

  31. Sascha
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 12:46 pm | Permalink

    Actually Space Kidette, I personally think that informal voting is still a vote. What if you don’t identify with any of the candidates in you electorate? Why should people have to choose a candidate they don’t like because there are none that they do. The high informal vote on the weekend still sent a message that there is dissatisfaction with the status quo.

  32. Space Kidette
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 12:48 pm | Permalink

    Sascha

    Did I mention anything about informal voting?

  33. Apeman
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

    To be realistic, I don’t see how the ALP is ‘likely’ to win 73 seats in the current state of play. They have a chance, yes, but right now the odds are leaning the other way. Gillard would need four indies/greens to form govt.

  34. Spare US
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 12:53 pm | Permalink

    There should be compulsory reading up to Grade 2 for ALL Q’landers so that they can understand the ticks and crosses. Counting is a bit too advanced. How to design a ballot papers for these people? Groan…….

    Now that we know that nobody want either party, WE the people should chose the PM and she can chose the Government………now that is a novel idea…..people choosing free of party political hacks and self-servers….

  35. Damo
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 12:55 pm | Permalink

    I always had a lot of respect for Malcolm Turnbull, but watching him suck up to Tony Windsor last night on QandA made me feel sick.

    As for redneck Queenslanders, The electorate has voted, guilty as charged. Spend 12 months in Melbourne or Sydney, then go back to Toowoomba, its like something out of The Twilight Zone.

  36. Acidic Muse
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

    @Free

    Anyone who thinks there is any such thing as a “left wing media” in Australia is simply either uninformed or delusional. We have a “centrist”more objective section of the MSM and another section that invariably leans right whenever they can get away with it (Murdoch)

    This is the primary reason why, as Tony Windsor said himself the other night - we now have basically two liberal parties in Australia. The population has been “educated”by it’s primary informing culture - the media - to believe the interests of the market are in the interests of everyone It’s the same in the UK and USA - Gore Vidal describes America as having two right wings of the same party which serves the interests of pretty much the same wealthy special interests and differentiate themselves in a perpetual culture war over social issues

    A hostile Senate in Australia poses less problems when to some extent, it’s compelled to respect the electoral mandate of a Government that decisively carried the day in the lower house.

    In this instance, neither party will have a clear mandate so the Senate will have much more license to reject legislation they don’t like.

    Hence it’s in the best interests of stable government that a government is formed around the policy platform most likely to be embraced by the new Senate.

    @Spare

    I have no doubt the Coalition would have won this election in a landslide if Turnball was leader. The only reason Toxic Tony managed to do so well was because Labor did so badly

  37. Space Kidette
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 1:20 pm | Permalink

    Well Spare Us!

    Firstly, I was educated in NSW - university level, no less!

    Secondly, if Queensland is soooo bad. Why do you all come up to visit?

    Thirdly, did it occur to that Queenslanders are not stupid by booting their members of parliament when they fail to deliver on the election promises they make. And before you go getting all political party on me, they have done it to various parties, not just the current one. Seems very smart to me!

  38. ronin8317
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 1:24 pm | Permalink

    The independents cannot make any decision until they know the number of seats won by each party, and that will not be known until a week away. Pretty much all the news stories right now are ‘speculations’ being reported as news.

    First, what cannot be denied. You need 76 seats to form government.

    Labor 72 : Liberal 74 = Liberal Government
    Labor 74 : Liberal 72 = Labor Government

    The case where things goes down to the wire is

    Labor 73 : Liberal 73.

    The Green will never vote as a block with the Independents, so we’ll always be one by-election away from a no-confidence vote, and a single House member can hold his party to blackmail for pork(*cough* Tony Crook *cough*) . This is why Mr Oakeshott floated the idea of a ‘unity government’ : otherwise we need a new election.

    One of the idea he brought forward have the chance to transform Australia politics : forcing a vote on a private member bill. This will devolve the power from the center, and destroy the reign of ‘faceless man’ in each political party. The meaningless ‘Question Time’ will be replaced by debates on policies!! Well, one can dream..

  39. freecountry
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

    ACIDIC MUSE -

    Anyone who thinks there is any such thing as a “left wing media” in Australia is simply either uninformed or delusional.”

    Whenever I hear that “there is no left wing media any more,” I know I’m right in the heartland of the left wing media. If there were more demand for left views they would become more popular. Green Left Weekly would not have to stand on street corners. New Matilda and Crikey would be charging top rates for advertising and picking the best of thousands of applicants for cadet journalist positions.\

    Anyway, haven’t we all had a gutful of all this right-left tug-of-war during the campaign? Why don’t we see if we can squeeze some real meaning out of Gillard’s favourite slogan “Moving Forward”.

    A hostile Senate in Australia poses less problems when to some extent, it’s compelled to respect the electoral mandate of a Government that decisively carried the day in the lower house.”

    The Senate is not “compelled” to respect anything, except its accountability to the electorate, and the prospect of a double dissolution if it cannot reach agreements with the House of Representatives.

    There is no rule, convention, or anything else, that the Senate has to subordinate itself to the House of Representatives or to the pattern of voting that put it there. The Senate is accountable to its own pattern of voting, which is very deliberately designed along very different lines for exactly that reason. To suggest otherwise is equivalent to saying that the Senate is redundant and should be dispensed with.

    Hence it’s in the best interests of stable government that a government is formed around the policy platform most likely to be embraced by the new Senate.”

    That is the whole point of a Senate after all — not so much to reject bills, but to make the House of Reps aware that it can reject bills and it should frame them accordingly. Any party not capable of framing them accordingly would be unfit to govern. This is a question more of judgement and ability, than of ideological homogeniety.

  40. geomac
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

    TROY C

    Yes I agree with you that Labor and the unions would have raised the issue of industrial deaths but not as a deceitful political ploy like Abbott did. It would have been because of their belief or concern for the need to have employers more accountable for unsafe work practices. There can be no grey area in what Abbott did and that is feign compassion for work related fatalities solely to push his political agenda. He compounded this act by his refusal to contemplate his long standing opposition to industrial manslaughter laws. There is no comparison to what Abbott did and what may have happened if the situation was reversed.

  41. Kevin
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

    Asdusty

    The size of these independents margins shows that they are loved by their constituancy.
    The numbers also tell you that there is no love for either major party in those electorates.”

    I think you are right there, the 3 independents probably don’t care who they side with really as long as they do the right thing for their country, I really believe this.

    The test is however that as they come from very conservative electorates and realise that to go with ALP will probably be political suicide for them, will they actually be prepared to take that step? To these conservative electorates the disillusionment with the Nats has seen them favour the 3 independent thinkers, however support for the ALP would certainly be hugely unpopular.

    The three independent’s rural electorates fall mostly fall outside the NBN fibre and the proposed servicing by wireless or satellite would be occurring similiarly by both ALP and Coalition policies as they currently stand. Interesting times I certainly hope that they come up with truly creative solutions.

  42. Sascha
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

    Space Kidette, Sorry, I was making the link between “Voting for an ass” as a Donkey vote.

  43. Sascha
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

    Damo, I’ll take Toowoomba over Melbourne or Sydney any day of the week. I just got a little sick in my mouth at the thought of spending 12 months in either of those two ants nests.

  44. Liz45
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    @GEOMAC - I agree! TROY C should keep in mind the attitude of both Abbott and Tuckey to asbestos related diseases, in particular, Bernie Banton. Who allowed that stuff to remain in the work place for decades, years and years after the dangers were known - which goes back to the 1920’s????at least 1950’s???Thousands of deaths in the past, and it hasn’t peaked yet? More misery to follow, and yet there’s no public education program in sight? Who’s going to accept responsibility for those people who will be diagnosed in the next 5, 10 or 20 yrs? I include home renovators in the list/s?

    @SPACE - The cut off point for postal votes isn’t until next Tuesday - I don’t think they start counting them until then, or at least they can’t declare questionable seats until postal votes are added and counted. The pre-poll votes can be counted at the same time as ordinary votes are, which is now!

  45. robten
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

    I’d be surprised if Windsor or Katter would risk their own conservative electoral bases by supporting the ALP. Oakeshott might be in a slightly different position. However, with the count not over, don’t rule out some surprise results, particularly in Dunkley (Vic) and Hasluck. If we have ALP 74 and Coalition 72, the Coalition could not govern with all 3 independents, so one of them at least would have to join with the Green to support the ALP.

  46. Liz45
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    @ROBTEN - Did you watch the 7.30 Report with the three Independents? It was most revealing. Also, Katter blames the Coalition for much of the problems in his electorate, plus, if the ALP was really a progressive socially democratic party these days, they may be concerned? But, what is the real difference between the major parties? This is part of the reason why the electorate are disenchanted - too much alike? Also, the three of them are most concerned about health, and with the perceived advantages of health and NBN combined, this may make all the difference. I think they’ll wait until all votes are counted and last official ‘word’ has been spoken. Showing their hand too early may be unnecessary and/or plain stupid! There’ll have to be more than a majority of just one! Fraught with difficulties - sickness, child birth(Tania Plibersek?)etc? Unworkable, for three yrs anyway!

  47. freecountry
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 5:54 pm | Permalink

    All this speculation on which side the independents will have to favour is pointless. And if anything, counterproductive, since the strength of the independents’ negotiating position — together with all our hopes for a better parliamentary term than the last one — depends entirely on them being able to maintain a credible position of neutrality at this stage in the game.

  48. Ian
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    The vast majority of Queenslanders are morons. Always have been. Always will be.

  49. Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    TROY C: Brian Harradine was a disciple of Bartholemew Augustine Michael (call me Bob) Santamaria. It was thanks to John Howard, who couldn’t get his Telstra bill through the house, that he got in touch with Brian Harradine and asked him if he would give little Johnny his vote.

    Yes, replied Harradine. But my price is that you move Tony Abbott to the Health portfolio. Once there, Tony Abbott was able to block all sorts of things that affected female voters that the Catholics didn’t approve of. Most especially the abortifacient RU486.

    No male politician has the right to dictate to women what they can do to their insides. Their bodies. How you could possibly be in favour of evil such as Brian Harradine, has to mean you go along with Harradine’s and Abbott’s Catholic religiosity.

    I’m sorry my friend, the days of women meekly going along with religious bigots has passed. I suggest you get yourself some new templates.

  50. sickofitall
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 7:54 pm | Permalink

    @Damo: I was just as sick watching our beloved leader (tm pending) praise and congratulate the 4 indpendents as her opening remark… nobody likes sycophants.

  51. sickofitall
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

    @Venise: but as wiser men like Mr Rabbit and Brian Harradine told me, women can’t think for themselves! ;)

  52. Astro
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    @sickofitall

    Well done, so succinctly put. Sycophant

  53. Liz45
    Posted Tuesday, 24 August 2010 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    @SICKOFITALL - You’re baiting right????

    Venise, you’re right about Harradine. Not only did he influence policies of the Howard govt re health and abortion etc, he was successful in stopping overseas funding from going to countries/areas that had a pro choice policy including abortion. It was a criminal act in my view.

    How many women died from just having too many pregnancies in impoverished countries? In some African countries, having first babies at the age of 14 or 16 is common, too many result in dead babies and women with fistulas(holes in their bladder and/or bowel?). Absolutely horrific! As you know I share your every criticism of the cc and its band of followers, who insist on pushing their unjust policies, regardless of who they hurt or what damage they do???Shameful!

  54. CML
    Posted Wednesday, 25 August 2010 at 1:48 am | Permalink

    I am puzzled by the numbers game at present. Tony Crook, the WA National who defeated Wilson Tuckey, told K O’B on the 7.30 Report Monday night that he is not part of the Federal Coalition, would not be attending their party meetings, or indeed, the Federal National party meetings, and would be sitting on the cross benches. So, in effect, he is an “Independent” and should be treated in the same way as Katter, Windsor, Oakeshott and (probably) Wilkie. But not Bandt, as he is a member of the Greens, and will presumably attend Greens party meetings.
    Could somebody please explain why Tony Crook is being counted under the Coalition numbers? The latest news tonight is that the Coalition is expected to have 73 seats (including Crook), and the ALP 72 seats. If the Coalition is allowed to include Crook (who does not belong to either of their parties) in its numbers, why can’t Labor include Bandt since he has already declared he will support the current government? Crook may well support the Coalition, but he has not said that he will at this stage.
    Then we have 73 all, with the four genuine independents left to decide who they will support. At least, that is the latest prediction based on the counting which took place Tuesday. For what it is worth, I think whoever they decide to support, this arrangement will not last. We will be back to the polls within a year!

  55. freecountry
    Posted Wednesday, 25 August 2010 at 9:05 am | Permalink

    CML,

    The situation is summarized in this >ABC report:

    The WA Nationals are allied to the federal Nationals party but are not required to vote along party lines.
    In WA, the Nationals are also in an alliance with the Liberal party in a minority government.
    … Mr Crook says the party will formulate its negotiating position shortly.

    The governance of the WA Nationals and its relationship to the federal party is summarized here

    As I read it, Crook is independent in the sense of being all alone in Parliament. Not independent in the sense of completely solo. Like Bandt, Crook represents a minority party. Unlike Bandt, Crook is smart enough to declare neutrality in order to strengthen his negotiating position.

    Crook wants the MRRT scrapped, and he wants WA’s Royalties for Regions program extended to a national level. In his press conference on Monday, Crook said he won’t budge on these demands.

    Western Australia has been used as a money pit to underwrite election promises by both major parties. We don’t need a new tax, but we do need a fair distribution of funding. We can re-prioritise expenditure to ensure regional Australia gets a fairer deal.”

    This will be interesting to see. Gillard has declared the MRRT to be non-negotiable. But Abbott has shown no interest in returning tax revenue to the states or regions that generate it — he’s gone as far as to suggest abolishing the states and making them branch offices of the federal government.

    There’s only one person in the last Parliament who showed any understanding of the principles of healthy federalism — including, vitally, returning revenue to the state that generates it — and that’s Wayne Swan, in this 2007 speech. Swan may be the only person in either of the major parties who has a clue what Crook is talking about.

  56. freecountry
    Posted Wednesday, 25 August 2010 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    Correction, “2007 speech” should read “2008 speech”.

  57. Posted Thursday, 26 August 2010 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    SICKOFITALL: Yaize. That be the theory in the nineteen thirties. But I have to say I find it to be an anachronism in 2010. Ne c’est pas? :)

  58. Posted Thursday, 26 August 2010 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

    LIZ: Hi there. Did you vote for the Greens? You don’t have to tell me. Living in the blue-ribbon Liberal seat of Higgins my Green vote counted for zilch.

    On the other hand I’m proud to be associated with the turmoil in the Upper House.

    For once the electorate became a mirror image of the way politicians have been treating the voter. Olé

    Cheers

    Venise

  59. Liz45
    Posted Thursday, 26 August 2010 at 6:41 pm | Permalink

    @VENISE - Yes I did! Well, in the Senate I put the Socialist Alliance first, so my vote went to the Greens, and helped The Greens candidate, Lee Rhianon elected, which is good. I’ve been impressed with her for some time now, and I think she’ll be a good person in the Senate - she works hard too!

    My HoR vote for The Greens candidate didn’t do much good - like you! But, that’s democracy! I’m in a Liberal seat now too, due to a redistribution. I was in Jennie George’s seat of Throsy - she’s retired, but Labor won - one of the safest seats in NSW anyway. Jennie is a good woman and was a great local member. I’m sorry that she’s gone, but she deserves some time for her now!

    After being interested in politics for about 40 or so years, I’m enjoying this new situation. In a way I hope we don’t go back to the polls, as I doubt whether we’d get this opportunity again. I think people wouldn’t send Labor a protest vote if we had to vote again, and I think a shake up is a good thing. Trouble is, politicians don’t exercise a lot of maturity - kids in adult bodies! The dummy spits by the Coalition - sending a great message to kids and young adults aren’t they? My 9 yr old grandson behaves better than a lot of them! (looks cuter too?)

    Take care, cheers!