It’s still anyone’s game
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Coming round the home straight and already a chant of “one more week” has broken out in the Crikey office. After weeks of campaigning, the race between Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott is still fierce. Will it be a photo-finish for PM or will one leader streak ahead in the final stretch? The general consensus from the commentariat continues to be that Gillard will probably win it, but Abbott’s still got a chance and what a damn good job he’s done, even if the economy isn’t proving to be his strong point. “The bookies still say it’s Labor — but only just. And despite appearances, the polls are converging, and pointing towards a cliffhanger result in Saturday’s election,” declares Tim Colebatch in The Age. David ‘Penbo’ Penberthy is calling it for the Coalition over at The Punch, even if it means a deal with the Independents. “The Coalition will narrowly win next Saturday’s election and govern in its own right.” It’s still anyone’s game, argues Dennis Shanahan in The Oz: “…Labor is favoured to win but, in such an uncertain election, either side can take government with a show of certainty and resolve.” This may be the final week of the campaign but Gillard is only launching the ALP campaign at 11:30am in Brisbane today. The launch is an important event — Gillard is expected to go hard on the economy and will offer up her own personal outline for a Gillard government. The launch could seriously affect the election’s outcome. “Today is the most important day of Julia Gillard’s political life,” announce Stefanie Balogh and Anna Caldwell in The Courier-Mail. Hopefully Gillard can give the punters something worth campaigning for, pleads Dennis Atkins in The Courier-Mail: “The Coalition last week missed an opportunity to give people something to vote for. Labor has a similar challenge this week with the environmental movement in particular.” Time for Julia to dig deep, says Dennis Glover in The Oz, “When you’re in a situation like this, with your back to the wall, there’s only one thing you can do: draw down on your character and belief system for one last moral effort. This is Julia Gillard’s task.” Don’t get too excited about this morning’s launch. “Today’s Brisbane shindig will resonate with disengaged voters only if there’s a torrent of cash or a stumble, unlikely on both counts,” argues Tom Dusevic in The Oz. “Labor’s attack on Tony Abbott’s financial credibility has succeeded in wiping out the Coalition’s election lead on economic management,” writes Dennis Shanahan at The Oz, so expect Gillard’s launch to continue her economy obsession. So far the focus on Labor’s economic management is working. Abbott’s continued refusal to debate Gillard on the economy shows how lacking his credentials are, says Peter van Onselen in The Oz.: “Now, by not even being willing to have a debate in conjunction with the Liberal Party’s much-sought community forum, Abbott has revealed himself to be truly worried an economic debate would expose his weaknesses.” But not everyone thinks Labor has done a great job. “…the grey belt has a simple financial trigger to loathe Labor, and to long for a return to the Coalition’s brand of economic management, because superannuation nest eggs have been smashed over the past three years,” notes George Megalogenis in The Oz. Costings have come back to bite Abbott on the bum, since this election costings farce dates back to Howard era days, writes Megalonis: “Instead, he enters the last week of the campaign with a costings debate he doesn’t need, and a call for an economic debate with Julia Gillard he is trying to avoid.” It’s not just Abbott who emerged with troubles from the Budget Honesty Charter. “Sometimes we are way too cynical about politicians, when they’re trying to do their best for country and constituents. Other times, you legitimately wonder how they sleep at night,” says Michelle Grattan in The Age. Blame the embattled Queensland and NSW Labor governments for Gillard’s struggle. “Julia Gillard will this week attempt to sprint to polling day on Saturday dragging the two most unpopular state governments in the Federation,” says Malcolm Farr in the Daily Telegraph. There has also been a series of polls covering the marginals, which are well covered over at Poll Bludger’s blog. Galaxy had a big poll released in News Limited papers, announcing that the Caalition held 51-49 in the two-party preffered. Antony Green at the ABC dissects how this Galaxy poll was wrong, and should read a more accurate 51-49 for the ALP. A weekend Newspoll was released today, with Labor holding the two-party preferred vote at 52-48. Alternatively, the Age/Nielsen poll had Gillard ahead at 53-47. This is about more than who wins and loses next Saturday, writes Waleed Aly in The Age:
Bugger the policy, this is all about personality. “While the policy debate is virtually non-existent it is the closeness of the race and the reluctance of voters to commit to either leader overwhelmingly and uniformly that makes this election so exciting,” argues Dennis Shanahan in The Oz. I’m young and disillusioned and I vote, says Alexandra Adornetto in The Age: “Whichever party wins on Saturday, they need to stop seeing the young as irresponsible, out of control and binge drinking partygoers. Perhaps it’s time politicians recognise this as the behaviour of a disenchanted generation and do something about it.” Too bad, this is the Kath and Kim election. “Voting for the first time? Single? Don’t have kids? Live in a safe seat? Unemployed? Disadvantaged? Interested in tax reform? Worried about the environment? Forget it. This election isn’t about you. It’s not about policy. It’s not about the will of the people,” writes Josh Gordon in The Age. “This election has highlighted the vast political divide between the states,” notes Jack the Insider at The Oz. Australia has been divided into red and blue states, just like the US. If you’re not a marginal voter, you don’t count because “once there was city and the bush, the rich and the poor, the workers and the bosses and the various state rivalries,” argues Tony Wright in The Age, “This time, essentially, there is Queensland and there is western Sydney…” Don’t get carried away with this being the bogan election, says David Penberthy in The Oz: “Australian voters are not only smart, they’re often smarter than people such as us who write about politics.” But be afraid, be very afraid. “Fear, in all its forms, is the overarching theme of this campaign, as parties ditch the effort to inspire and make overwhelmingly negative appeals to voters’ insecurities,” warns Claire Harvey at the Herald Sun. Gillard should’ve waited before running off to the polls. “Even if Gillard scrapes across the line on Saturday night… she will do so with her public credibility severely dented and her political judgment under a cloud,” writes Paul Daley in the SMH. A Gillard government will be decisively left-wing with a “feminine” touch, says Paul Kelly at The Oz: “Presented with a feminine stamp Gillard holds out the prospect of giving the pragmatic Left the most success and respectability it has enjoyed in this country for many decades.” Meanwhile, Michelle Grattan has moved ahead from the who’ll win it, to the how will they lead and who’ll be ministers, in The Age. Expect Rudd to get a foreign ministry position if Gillard is elected, while if Abbott wins it, Turnbull may be given defence. But let’s not count chickens before they’ve hatched, warns Grattan:
Phillip Coorey agrees: “A more contemporary analysis of the last two polls indicates Labor would lose a net 14 seats nationally, taking it from a notional 88 seats to 74 and therefore, a hung Parliament.” But that relies on a uniform swing, which is rarely the case. More likely, he argues in the SMH, is that Labor will retain government with just 76 seats. This is Abbott’s one chance at the prime minister’s job and even if he loses the Liberals would probably want to keep him as leader. But should he? “Would he want to? Who knows. Would he be wise to? I don’t think so,” declares Michelle Grattan. Give him a back on the pat for trying though: “The Coalition has managed to hold itself together and frighten the daylights out of the government. The leader who not many people wanted can take a lot of the credit,” writes Shaun Carney in The Age. Miranda Devine agrees in the SMH: “Whether the Coalition wins or loses next week, its accidental leader is the only reason it has come so close.” Former PM John Howard even penned a piece for The Oz, listing Abbott’s skills and experience and declaring “If Abbott becomes prime minister of Australia, he will bring many qualities to that office.” It’s still anyone’s game, so sit up and pay attention. |
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41 Comments
The more I say “horse race journalism”, the more horse racing metaphors you use. Are you going out of your way to sound vapid?
“….because superannuation nest eggs have been smashed over the past three years,” notes George Megalogenis in The Oz.”
Because of the world wide financial crisis! Why wasnt that made clear??? It is so often not what journo’s say but what they dont say…..
Gee, John Howard is backing Abbott! The only remarkable thing about it is that the Oz gave him a whole article in which to say it.
Following that I am now looking forward to an article from Mr Keneally telling us how nice his missus is and another from Ms Brumby boasting about hubby’s prowess in the leg over department.
Tight, but if Labor can maintain the economy as the issue this week, Abbott will lose.
If we need a streaker at the Labor ‘launch’ today, maybe Mr Latham could oblige? I mean, he’s tried every other stunt in the book to get himself in front of a camera.
As for ‘horse race journalism’, well, that’s the way the average punter (ooops!!), I mean voter, views election campaigns. Nothing wrong with that per se, except if there’s no other attempt to discuss issues of worth, and you could hardly say that about Crikey.
And if anyone wants to see an example of vapid, try Powerlite’s explanation of American politics…that Americans don’t want a single payer health insurance system! Except they have polled in the majority for at least two decades. (And got really narky when this basic fact was presented).
Powerlite, likes his/her own facts and now has a new horse to ride it seems.
If you think The Australian is biased, you should have seen yesterday’s Sunday Age.
This is a paper that hates the Greens. They made a mountain out of a molehill in their coverage of the discussions within the party about private school funding. And in a summary of the weeks events, when reporting about the Gruen ad which the Greens would have liked to show, they managed to say something like “the Greens are in disarray”.
That I could find, none of the commentary articles mentioned the Greens. What are the differences between the parties? That article was all Labor vs Liberal. Lack of substance in policies, again no mention of the Greens. And the 18 year old new voter article (see link in the main article above) is also only the two major parties (it’s all “neither political party”, “both parties”).
The editorial endorses Gillard.
Reading the whole paper it is clear that to the Sunday Age the real enemy is not the coalition, it is the Greens.
I wish I was a subscriber to the Sunday Age so that I could cancel my subscription.
The bookies do not say it’s Labor, “just” at all. Where do you get that from and why misiniform your readers? Take a look at this site’s Possum pollytics blog which deals with the bookies’ odds explicitly and with graphs. The bookies odds say it is a lay-down misere, overwhelmingly, put down your glasses, dead cert, all over red rover - to Labor.
It is in the interests of both the media and the parties to claim that the result sits on a knife edge, or a dozen other similar cliches. Nevertheless, Labor is clearly, if narrowly, in front, has the momentum and greater resources, and is likely to keep that momentum for the remaining few days.
Abbott’s campaign is so narrowly and negatively based it is hard to see how it could spring to life now. It is based on the unsupported claim that he will deliver “competent” government. It is a claim that is uninspiring and lacks substantial evidence.
Voters will be focussed on the woes of the State Labor Governments in QLD and NSW and that will be a factor in the last week.
The same powerbrokers that installed the NSW Premier installed Gillard and people will be awake to that this week.
CHRISTOPHER DUNNE: “As for ‘horse race journalism’, well, that’s the way the average punter (ooops!!), I mean voter, views election campaigns.”
I disagree. Most of the public writing in blogs are talking about policy. Meanwhile the politicians talk about other politicians, and the journalists talk about the voters.
It’s like a trial lawyer spending spending the whole trial telling the jury about themselves and about the other trial lawyer, instead of about the trial.
Will the wascally Mr Wabbit win or will the wiley Julia pull a wabbit out of her hat?
DAVID SANDERSON - You’re right about the theme of Abbott’s campaign. But Gillard’s campaign is the same.
So the ‘average punter’ is on the political blogs?
Ahem, I think not.
No Powerlite, the ‘average punter’ is not on the political blogs, the average punter is watching the ‘horse race’ and by all accounts, is only half interested in it, at that.
No, the Labor campaign is very negative about Abbott but it does have a cohesive positive side centring on education, skills, infrastructure and the economy.
While Abbott has made promises in all these areas they do not ‘pull-together’ as an overall direction or vision at least, in part, because Abbott seems to lack the rhetorical skills to make it work. He is good at the negative one liner or quip but is otherwise not a great persuader.
Amber before making wild inaccurate statements about the betting variables, perhaps you should familiarise yourself with your own site, may save a red face….
Try this link and let us know if you still think the bookies say Labor - only just
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/08/16/betting-market-monday/
DAVID SANDERSON, The coalition is in fact offering a more thorough consideration of the Henry Tax review, as well as a review of competition law - both long overdue, and both having huge potential for economic improvement. But it’s fairly arcane stuff, and they’ve apparently decided that this goes over the heads of the ‘average punter’ so they only mention it occasionally.
CHRISTOPHER DUNNE, I expect the horse race style appeals to someone who finds it easier to lampoon a writer’s nickname than to refute his argument. I won’t return fire by lampooning your name because unlike mine, yours is personal.
The review of the Review is not serious policy stuff, it is merely a ploy to attack Labor for adopting so few of the recommendations.
The review of competition law completely passed me by and I follow politics fairly closely. My guess is that any review is designed to protect sectional interests close to the party.
‘still anyone’s game’?
I’m with Frank Madden - are you reading your own bloggers?
or are you so bored already you are talking it up to try and make the week pass more quickly?
Possum has the 2PP pretty much locked in at 52-48 across aggregated polls and has the bookies pretty firm at 75% ALP, and these have not changed recently. 80 seats to the ALP is his prediction, but I reckon he’s low.
Nobody seems to be talking about the fact that Abbott has had a negative approval rating continuously since April, with a very low proportion of Undecideds - has anyone ever got to the Lodge with a negative approval rating?
Add this to Gillard’s 14 point lead as Preferred PM and it suggests that there is a disconnect between the 2PP and the PPM, and this must be an underlying dislike for Abbott, even amongst Lib voters.
on the day I predict that The Libs will have difficulty getting out the vote, due to the apathy of both their voters and their campaign workers
their frustration has been getting noticable lately
DAVID SANDERSON - Is that what you really believe? Or is it just what you want to believe because a Labor victory is more important to you than either side offering a good policy?
Sectional interests have become a constant in Australian politics. Much of the famous stimulus went into bank profit, in a year when many of the world’s banks were struggling to stay solvent:
$6 billion for Commonwealth Bank (cash profit reported)
$4.6 billion for ANZ (estimated)
$4.4 billion for NAB (estimated)
$5.9 billion for Westpac (estimated)
But both sides are responsible for pork-barreling the banks. It’s the easiest way to get favourable economic commentary.
Can someone please explain to me why the worst Opposition leader since Billy Snedden gets any credibility? One obvious answer is that the other side aren’t any better anyway. But, seriously - having seen off Nelson and Turnbull (though Turnbull will return) - who, apart from the troglorights saw that Tony Abbott could be anything but a junior minister.
Now before I get flamed, why is Julia Gillard being taken seriously? She has no trustworthiness, ethics or loyalty. Having knifed Rudd, she has added nothing to the table. Neither have those who supported her. We are still under the same policies: her new policies for after the election aren’t any different.
Is this the worst election since Federation? Usually there’s one choice - often there’s two. The Greens are set for the Senate, but not the lower house. The Nationals? DLP? Communists? Socialists? Family First? Hardly inspiring…
@ sickofitall…only one remaining choice for you. What country will you be departing for?
@David: Somewhere which is better run: Zimbabwe, perhaps, or Romania…
In fact, you make a good point: even with this shocking election, we’re still much better off than the rest of the world. Just no vision. (sigh)
I have to agree with you SICKOFITALL. Mark Latham called for people to return a blank voting paper. I’d like to see millions of voters go further and do a mass protest on polling day, instead of voting. Let David Sanderson put in the only vote of the whole day and elect a Labor government by default.
It was the Democrats who once upon a time used to inject some policy debate into politics when it got like this. Which reminds me that Crikey nominated itself for a Walkley for the following achievement:
I’m up for it but I’m not sure about a one person parliament and Janelle Saffin as prime minister.
David and Frank
I am quoting Tim Colebatch saying that the bookies are backing Labor. Which is in quotation marks and then linked to.
And this wrap isn’t an analysis of the polls and who’ll actually win the election. It’s a round up of the media commentary of the day and what they are saying about who’ll win the election. If you want poll analysis, I suggest checking out Poll Bludger, Possum or Antony Green’s ABC blog and I mention in this article how well Poll Bludger analyses it.
Despite the polls, several papers and journos are suggesting an Abbott win. However, as I wrote at the beginning:
“The general consensus from the commentariat continues to be that Gillard will probably win it…”
Like I said, horse race commentary. A 15 year old could do it just as well - assuming you could persuade a 15 year old to waste time on it. Even most children are more interested in policy than the journalists are.
“Even most children are more interested in policy”
well, my kids are certainly excited by the improvements to their school.
they don’t show much interest in the Stimulus, but they are glad to be getting out of their draughty prefab classroom and into a proper brick one.
Surely Abbott’s ((or should that be Boatman’s) comments today about taking calls from naval officers on his Boatphone and then personally deciding which boats he’ll send back has to nobble the race a bit. It’s hard to imagine anything sillier than this Pythonesque idea.
A nice example of our media is failing us is today’s Age.
Their eduction page has a reference to an article “Too Hot to Handle” which is only available online at http://education.theage.com.au/cmspage.php?intid=142&intversion=67
Of course climate change is a non-issue in today’s political coverage in the Age.
In a few days time about 85% of the voters will vote for a party which is committed to NOT having a carbon tax during the next term, and a party which ‘aspires’ to only a 5% cut by 2020 (which would make so little difference it is questionable why we should bother).
I guess climate change is the gay whale in the room
powerlite, labor will romp home by about 3 lengths and Mr. rabbitt will be road-kill and Mr. turnball will collect his winnings from the $200,000 Bet. the Neo-con s are going mad already and poor rupert is using all his pages and tv to try to con us. I think Super fast Broadband will get the young voters, small business and large, country vote etc etc .The greens could be gaining on the LNP and pass them, how many Red-necks are there to vote for Abbott ? and old people in homes.
Powerlite, you don’t HAVE an argument! LOL
Just the usual grab bag of clumsy assumptions.
@Amber…regardless of whom ‘you’ are quoting, the inference is still wrong. I guess it again shows, the MSM cannot be trusted. Probably checking before using, may avoid their loose with the facts traps.
Have a great day
HARRYBELBARRY, my point is: Who are the customers that the papers are catering to?
(a) the bookmakers
(b) voters who made up their minds long ago (that’s you, C Dunne, D Sanderson, and so on)
(c) or those voters still trying to make up their minds until the last day?
My contention is that the media are writing mainly for (a) the bookmakers but also picking up some easy ratings from the (b) the welded-on voters like yourself. Group (c) are left to fend for themselves.
The thing about group (c) is that if the journalists were really interested in their jobs, they could act as a two-way communication channel between the public and the candidates. The only organisation making any attempt to do that is the ABC. The papers, as well as the online newsletters like Crikey, are conspicuously catering only for the bookmakers.
So what do you even need the papers for? You and Sanderson and Dunne could just run your own facebook group making jokes about rabbits and roadkill and how clever you are, and everyone would be just as well informed as they are now.
@ powerisnotstrength…..[“they could act as a two-way communication channel between the public and the candidates. The only organisation making any attempt to do that is the ABC. “]
Interested to learn
Why is the ABC going about this so called communication channel, in a biased and unbalanced
manner?
Re “the media are writing mainly for a) the bookmakers but also picking up some easy ratings from the (b) the welded-on voters like yourself.” ….there would be a majority in this country who wouldn’t give a toss about the bookmakers odds, wouldn’t go near a bookmakers site.
As for welded on voters, if you are familiar with the blogs associated with Crikeys readership, the vast majority are highly critical of the msm and treat them as fools.
DAVID: “Why is the ABC going about this so called communication channel, in a biased and unbalanced manner?”
First of all I think bias is largely in the eye of the beholder. I don’t see the ABC as biased. The Oz looks biased to me (sickeningly so, even though they are nominally rightist like me) - but I doubt if Murdoch has anything to do with that, or could care less.
Second, I don’t think bias in the media is worth all the fuss people make of it. That’s what the free press is for. There is no need for every publication to sit exactly on the fence; if too many publishers move to one side, then that creates a market for publications on the other side, which anyone is free to step up to.
I should point out that my first bachelor degree many years ago was in journalism, so I’ve looked into questions of bias in great depth. I should also point out (for any young people silly enough to consider majoring in journalism) that it was a waste of three years of my life that I’ll never get back, as well as being the worst possible preparation for a career in journalism. And finally that I gained more insight in five minutes listening to Jay Rosen on horse race journalism than I learned in that whole wasted three years.
I realize that many bloggers view the MSM with contempt - mainly on charges of bias. I don’t care about bias.
My problem with journalists is that very few of them bring any useful knowledge at all to the job - no knowledge of economics, or law, or anything enabling them to analyse policy and act as intermediaries between us and the pollies. After all is said and done, most journalists are just political party groupies. So when I hear that the current-affairs industry is going into decline, I don’t really think it’s a great loss.
@powerisnotstrength…interesting thoughts, thanks
Tony Abbott is on the threshold of delivering the greatest mea culpa of all time.The Australian public will not extend absolution for his greatest failure, his transparent judacity of the Australian Public, OUR GOVERNMENT has decreed a tax on the removal of our mineral wealth, his validation of the of Multinational Mining Companies right to deny us equity (since with rationale, agreed to) they can see the light, reluctant, but accepting reality.That being said, why does this man persist in taking the position that he will deny us that concession, to grab POWER for powers sake is the measure of a man, I want to support my family, MY Australian Family, and yours I dont know about you, I’m not for sale, over to you.
Well, its the Monks to win really. Momentum is with the the Ranga at the moment and the LNP small target strategy is failing them in this last week. Time for Tone to let it all hang out of the smugglers and show that he can be a leader. Otherwise its a Labor win by default as encumbency takes them over the line. In all this campaign has been painful to experience as we watch a centre-right party battle it out with a far-right party to see who can take us faster to fascism. Our democracy is in sore need of a third force in politics so that every Australian can vote for a party that truly represents them.
Talk about pygmies in the mist Q& A just lifted the fog on Democracy my Auntie is real.The real Tony tried to stand up and no one noticed.What goes around comes around.
Sorry I forgot CC: Galaxy polls. and Rupert.
ASDUSTY Does that mean we need big swinging green budgies,your insight alludes me, like the jitterbug. Don’t fret Fascism is self defeating.