‘Real’ Julia struggles to stay afloat
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Two weeks in to the election campaign and it’s ex-PM Kevin Rudd dominating the headlines, including new accusations he leaks more than a faulty tap. Today Julia Gillard will announce her new “real Julia” campaign strategy, as she battles problems with Rudd, dipping polls and the constant gender issue. And Tony Abbott? Well, so far he’s just keeping quiet and not stuffing up, and his poll popularity is beginning to creep up. But if you haven’t read Grog’s Gamut post on how this election campaign is playing out in the media, bookmark it now because it’s compulsory reading for political media junkies. It’s a fairly brutal but accurate representation of how journalists are covering this election in the mainstream media. Journos have stopped examining policy and now just examine politicians, says Grog:
This campaign is a farce: “…we have a campaign in which we are treated to a procession of semi-celebrity day-trips around which banal triviality is contrived,” writes John Wanna in The Australian. Mark Day agrees: “How times have changed. Today, politics is entertainment.” It isn’t always entertaining, but the commentariat love it. Rudd may have been hospitalised for gall-bladder surgery (cue a barrage of highly inappropriate and mildly amusing leaking bile jokes) but he still haunted Gillard’s campaign and Alexander Downer didn’t let Rudd’s illness stop him from ripping in. Downer accused Rudd of leaking critical information fed to him by the Liberal Party. “I don’t use the c-word, but I do use the f-word pretty freely, and I can tell you that Kevin Rudd is a f****** awful person,” he apparently said. One hugely critical article by Claire Harvey in The Daily Telegraph titled ‘The Rudd we never knew’ paints Rudd as an arrogant and ruthless bastard, quoting journalists and Liberal politicians dishing the dirt on Rudd. “They were all manifestations of a particular kind of arrogance. They were the characteristics that made Kevin Rudd successful. They also made him widely loathed,” writes Harvey. Rudd has stolen Gillard’s spotlight. “Julia Gillard is no longer the central figure in the Labor campaign, and her legitimacy and effectiveness as party leader is constantly being brought into question,” writes Dennis Shanahan at The Oz. Shanahan continued the theme in today: “At this point, the ALP is losing the election campaign, Gillard is losing her gloss and the advantage of removing Kevin Rudd is gone — a loss that is doubly cursed as the knifed Labor leader’s presence continues to dominate the campaign and distract the government from its message.” Former Herald Sun and Age editor Bruce Guthrie tells the fascinating tale of a recent encounter with wounds-licking post-spill Rudd in The Sunday Age:
Rudd will be gone by Christmas, claims Dennis Atkins. “If Labor wins, they argue there’s no way Rudd will get a Cabinet post which would see him depart. If they lose, he’s unlikely to stick around in a morass of recrimination and back-stabbing,” he writes in The Courier-Mail. Gillard’s knifing of Rudd the PM may not have been the best idea, says Peter Hartcher in the Sydney Morning Herald:
The Neilsen poll in reference has the Coalition ahead on the two-party preferred vote, 52-48. Today’s Newspoll has both parties even on 50-50 in the two-party preferred, with Gillard leading as preferred PM by 50-35. It seems before we can go Moving Forward, we have to process the end of Rudd; “like a marriage breakdown, a political execution takes time to be closed out,” writes Imre Salusinszky in The Oz. Whoever this rat in the ranks is, Gillard has to reveal them before they destroy her campaign, says David Burchell: “It’s time for Gillard to pull the spectre out of its attic, expose it to the light and renounce it once and for all.” This election is turning into a tightly-fought contest. Queen Julia might still reign, but she won’t rein it in as easily as polls previously predicted. Gillard has come out swinging, saying her campaign is changing:
As Robyn Riley writes in the Herald Sun: “I’ve got a feeling this election is going to get a lot closer than many were forecasting and every step is being closely analysed. The slightest slip-up could see a leader pay a huge price.” Labor votes are angry, says Shaun Carney in The Age: “It’s clear from the opinion polls, from reader and audience feedback in the media, and from standing in the supermarket queue that ennui, disaffection and disenchantment is prevalent across part of the electorate, especially among those who would generally be regarded as falling into the Labor column.” “Labor has been confronted with the reality that it will lose the August 21 election without a huge change in fortunes and in the quality of its campaign,” argues Laura Tingle [paywalled] in the Australian Financial Review. Amazingly, Gillard’s gender is still a national political issue. All the gender/earlobes/fashion sense talks just represents a bigger issue, writes Josh Gordon in The Sunday Age: “…perhaps it is also a proxy for a bigger question: are parts of Australia uncomfortable with the idea of a woman as prime minister?” It’s more about Gillard’s policies than anything else, says Sid Maher. “There are good reasons why no candidate from Labor’s Left in living memory has led a federal government and I expect Abbott will be listing them all the way to polling day,” he writes in The Oz. Gillard is just the latest Labor robot, writes Paul Sheehan in the Sydney Morning Herald, a “metallic creature of the machine”. Tony Abbott is doing a very good job in not making himself the topic of debate, says Tony Wright. “Having caused himself little damage, Abbott had been granted the luxury of watching the prime minister take all the heat,” he writes in The Age. How far the mighty Kevin07 has fallen, since “if Labor loses on August 21, it would be the equivalent of the Liberals blowing up John Howard and Peter Costello in one term,” writes Phillip Coorey in the Herald. Suddenly the Howard years have a rosy glow for Peter van Onselen at The Oz, too: “If the past three years have taught us anything it is that if voters had their time again they would have re-elected the Howard government for a fifth term.” Meanwhile, Michelle Grattan draws a nice comparision in The Age about the two leaders’ closet advisers: John Faulkner to Gillard and Nick Minchin to Abbott:
Apart from the Abbott vs. Gillard battle, there is one other politician looking genuine, promising policies and keeping appearances out of it, says Michelle Grattan in The Age:
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32 Comments
Very happy to see the “real Julia” emerge. The question is, when will we see the “real Tony”? I suspect it won’t be till after the election - whether he wins or loses.
The current polling is quite interesting - it seems to show the Liberals CAN win - but only by standing outside each polling booth handing pegs out to voters instead of “how to vote” cards. Their supporters can then stick the peg on their nose while voting for the fruit loop.
Ignore the two party preferred numbers at the moment, they are prone to be outlyers produced by petulent reactions to whatever the pundocracy are bleating about at the moment. The crucial number is ‘preferred Prime Minister’. If the Monk overtakes Gillard as preferred PM, its all over. But if she maintains her solid lead it is likely that come crunch time, ie standing in that booth with the pencil in your hand, that Labor will sqeeze thru. As Possum wrote a couple of weeks ago, it is really a case of a ‘pox on both your houses!’, and in a choice between the least worst, at the moment, Labor wins.
Hartcher joins the ever growing band of Journalists who deserve the contempt and disgust that is being thrown at them. He sinks to the level of Akerman and Albrechtsen, that says something!!!!!!!!!!!
Akerman on Insiders yesterday showed just what a low life dirt bag he is. Once again he threw out the lie that union members were being levied to pay for the union movements advertising. Not so, never has been. All donations to the union for advertising purposes are voluntary. That the majority of union members are prepared to assist, shows their contempt for the Opposition position on industrial relations.
@ Asdusty
I agree 100%. As much as I am aching to punish the ALP for their act of bastardry towards Rudd there are four main reasons bitterness cannot accompany me into the voting booth:
1. Kevin Rudd is my federal MP
2. Abbott would be a cringing embarrassment at international gatherings let alone here in Oz
3. Images of genial, hopelessly out of this depth, Joe Hockey as treasurer - not to mention the other hapless characters comprising the shadow cabinet
4. Coalition policies are slightly worse than the ALP’s
For what it is worth, I prefer to believe the Face to Face polling, it more difficult to fib to someone sitting in front of you!.
Julian Gillard has increased the family tax benefit for some families with 16/17 year old kids to keep them at school, saying that more often of not kids leave school at 16. I thought the vast majority of kids went on to year 12 these days?
Ruperts people seem to be already celebrating a Abbott win, but you know what they say about counting chickens and they appear to already have an industrial chook shed. However, two weeks is a very, very long time in politics…
The campaigns may be duller than dishwater but the coverage of them by Australia’ media is also plumbing all new lows
We’ve come to expect a tsunami of scat from Murdoch and the Right Wing Noise Machine but this time traditionally objective sections of the media, most notably the ABC have completely done an extremely poor job in providing balance
As most journalists remain fixated with the Rudd Removal and tabloid tittle tattle about leaks, Toxic Tony and the Turramurra Tea Party are slipping the radar virtually unscrutinised
I really have to wonder what role the failure of ABC political editor Chris Ullmann to take a complete sabbatical while his wife runs as candidate the Labor played in the relative lack of scrutiny Abbott’s campaign has received over at Aunty thus far?
The kind of trivial tabloid smear against Gillard Ullmann posted on The Drum last week will so be enough parry accusations of ABC Labor bias under his editorial leadership
You really have to wonder just how much the systematic inquisitorial blowtorch other ABC journalist have been applying to Labour in pursuit of the “Rats in the Ranks” narrative has simply been a defensive strategy concocted to protect Ullmann and Mark Scott from accusations of bias?
It’s certainly time the ABC stopped obsessing over the leaks and meaningless gossip and began some serious critical analyes of the stark policy differences between the ALP and Coalition. The Fairfax media mafia has seemingly morphed into little more than an outsourced mini me to the Murdoch machine at this point
I’m bored, this election is very flat it’s like the limbo of death,
how low can they go? We need some action, somebody please go and poke
Wilson Tuckey with a stick. Then again rumour has it the Libs have
Him under house arrest somewhere north of Capricornia.
Amazing poll of 1
My 26 year old son a building worker told me he did not give a toss for politics - as the only person he had voted for that he thought would genuinely make a difference was Rudd and now he has been shafted - no pollster can ever get near him - (mobile phone generation) - as he will avoid voting or spoil his ballot - there is another vote lost from the Labor Heartland.
Just remember everyone thought at some time (white picket fences) Howard was unelectable because of his loopy xenophobia. Tony will squeak it in because the Kevin 07 swing has been trashed and Julia now has her own version of real/not real, truth/ not truth, core promises/ non- core promises. Bring on the next leak Laurie….
Since their seems to be a realisation today amongst some of the pundocracy that Rudd might not be the source of the leaks:
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/gillard-quiet-on-tanner-leak-claims-20100802-111t8.html
I would expect Rudd to come out swinging (when he recovers from surgery) at this dirty propaganda designed to not only slander him but hamstring the entire ALP re-election bid. I would also expect that Ruperts people to continue running with pointing the finger at Rudd as it fits better into their pro-LNP campaign (better a former leader being the percieved rat than a disaffected leftie retiring from parliament).
He also gay-baited Marr — suggesting Marr found Abbott sexually appealing
Akerman (turning to Marr)
What a grub.
Once again it needs to be said: executions are meant to be fatal. If you are executing a PM then he can’t remain alive and kicking afterwards.
If the Labor machine was so certain that Rudd was a dud, then it has only itself to blame for not providing him with a dignified exit to a place far away from domestic politics.
I have never believed Gillard’s mantra that there will always a place for Rudd in her new Cabinet and the more often she repeats it the sillier she looks.
Fran I intend to make a complaint to the ABC about Akermans disgusting behaviour yesterday on Insiders. It will of course be a waste of effort as all complaints to them are. But at least I will have tried, that gives a good deal of personal satisfaction. Something has to be done about Akerman and his type.
Akerman on Insiders was pure entertainment - what a sublime combination he is with David Marr, my eyes light-up whenever ther’re on the same set. Marr’s facial expressions and body language are a joy to behold when Akerman is in full flight. Pier’s lambasting of Gillard’s partner having a drink-driving charge in 2003 was brilliant comedy (with interjections from Marr and Lenore Taylor, both incredulous). Barrie Cassidy felt enough was enough and eventually ended the discussion. It was the funniest thing I’d seen all week, better than the Chaser boys.
I agree Socratease - Rudd should have been offered some nice comfy posting somewhere out of the country, even for 6 months, just to get him out of the way.
Of course, rumour has it a lot of the gender stuff is coming from the Liberals, who have ensured that Tony has either a wife or a daughter by his side most days - you’d expect that sort of cynical nonsense from the Libs but for the media to just keep reporting it without revealing sources is appalling.
As for Akers - unfortunately, he is on Insiders in the interests of providing ‘balance’ - sad, but true. Yes, he is a grub.
As the the OZ, well, its just the media arm of the Liberal Party!
Having said that, neither of the main parties has said or done anything inspiring this campaign to inspire me, so looks like the Greens get my vote!
@ZUT ALORS at 10:56 am
Hey, Zut, we are neighbours across the river. I am so happy about the ballot positions for Brisbane because I can just do the donkey vote and it reflects my actual choice: 1. Greens (Andrew Bartlett !), 2. someone 3. Labor (tired old Arch) 4. someone 5. Lib (Teresa Gambaro, groan). This time I am hoping there are lots and lots of donkeys.
For what it is worth, I do not totally cringe an Abbott win, because:
1. He will return to form and so it is very difficult to see his government being stable.
2. Things need to get worse before they get better. Lib & Lab will be appalling. Defections/recruitment of top people to the Greens.
3. I dislike Abbott but in the international perspective he is not as cringeworthy as Howard was, and let us face it, we simply do not matter.
Your final point is not quite correct, in that the Coalition policies (what they would really do) is a lot worse because the ALP and leaders actually do want/know what is better policy (NBN, Work Choice, Climate, infrastructure) but get weak-kneed at implementing it. (Well at least the likes of Lindsay Tanner, Faulkner, Peter Garrett know.)
It’s great to read your comments and know that Labor is still going to win. I was worried the polls might be scientific. But you guys are smarter, much smarter, than the voting public. So I will listen to your predictions over what the public says.
Take a hike Troy, you really are missing a trick in the brain area.
@ Michael R James
Arch Bevis used to be my member but then there was a fiddle with the boundaries which landed me in Griffith. In your situation I would vote exactly as you (and the donkeys) intend.
I admit to fantasising about an Abbott win : at least those right faction ALP goons would be rebuked for the fall of the government in the wake of their Rudd kill-off. It would be satisfying to know that Mark Arbib, Howes, Ludwig and Associates had lost credibility through their appalling judgement and dishonourable behaviour - hopefully nobody would accept their counsel for a long time after, if ever.
And Abbott would have a one term government due to bungles, gaffes and his paltry talent being revealed for our nation to see. It would be fun to watch - just a pity we’d have to bear the consequences. I can’t wait for him to put up a Bill making it illegal for adults to be single and ‘without issue’. Peter Dutton as Health MInister (if he can keep that weak grip on his seat) is a chilling prospect.
I’m in the audience at Q&A tonight where the latter will be giving us the benefit of his wit and wisdom along with Jethro Joyce, Craig Emerson, Larissa Waters (Greens senate candidate) and the ubiquitous Madonna King. A thrill-packed cheap night out, folks!
I don’t know what the election result will be. One of the upsides of a contest conducted between two sets of egregious rightwing bastards is that whoever wins, at least one set of egregious rightwing bastards will be very sad shortly after August 21.
I will not waste time exercising my right to (metaphorically) spit on them. I will be doing it at every reasonable opportunity, and on some that are not. I am reminded again of Gloria Clemente‘s words from the movie White Men Can’t Jump…
Looking back over the last three years and to the three years we are about to have, this seems most apt.
@Zut Alors
Have fun at Q&A tonight. Please give us the count of Labor, Liberal and Green staffers planted in the audience. I take that as a comment.
SusieQ, you might want to actually read some of the Greens economic policies before you decide to vote for them. Here is a just a few for starters, straight off their website:
1/. Bring back death taxes and estate duties - if you are not old enough to remember how insideous these taxes were? I suggest you go and ask your grandparents before August 21.
2/. Remove the 30% private health rebate - this will cause an exodus of members placing even greater strain on the public system
3/. Remove the GST - Great! Where will the States go to raise revenue? They can simply increase Stamp Duty, Payroll Tax, reintroduce hidden Sales Taxes? The net result will be an increase in prices not a decrease - and if you think the GST is difficult to administer - try understanding the former Sales Tax laws.
4/. Abolish live stock exports - this will cause the collapse of our farming industry, will destroy our credibility as a food producing nation and will result in further reliance on mining to balance our terms of trade. Not to mention it will destroy our rural communities.
5/. - Remove any concessions for the taxation of Capital Gains, including the removal of rollover provisions for small business owners who rely on the sale of their business to fund their retirement. For most small business owners, the only real profit they ever make is on the sale of their business. Think of your local butcher, your local flower shop or bookshop, all the tradies who run their own businesses, the farmers. These small business people dont get compulsory superannuation contributions like employees do, they dont receive guaranteed wage rises each year and many work hours far beyond the normal working week and take risks by being in business every single day.
Of course, your vote is your right. Just don’t give it away without thinking about it.
@Farmer Joe
Yes. Thanks for reminding us of the Green Policies they are not talking about, for obvious reasons
Are things really getting worse for Labor? Or is it that the press now see a ripping good yarn to write about , while some members of the Labor party see a chance to get even? while the Coalition now sense political blood from Labor
@Robertson
… and that the junketing media scrum is not questioning them about, either.
Now, FarmerJoe, I have looked at the Greens website (not in much detail because I am actually at work…….).
The threshold on the estate tax is $5million - not so bad and quite frankly, if you own property worth more than that, why shouldn’t you pay extra tax? People who own that much property can afford to minimise their tax anyway, unlike us PAYG people.
I would be happy to forgo or even reduce my private health insurance if we had a decent public health system, properly staffed and funded, so no problem with dropping the 30% if that does actually happen.
I didn’t see anything about getting rid of the GST (stand to be corrected on that) but did see a statement about reviewing it and other taxes - whats wrong with that? I also saw some stuff about stopping tax loopholes which surely is a good thing?
The Greens are still politicians like the rest of them - I’ve been around long enough to have had my rose coloured glasses shattered a long time ago!!!!
Gillard is still far ahead as Preferred Prime Minister, at 50:35. That’s why she’s now trying to make it personal, saying:
And that’s why it’s now all about “the real Julia”. Great, just what we need: a Big Brother eviction contest for the Lodge.
Well that’s one way to do a hyperlink
@SuziQ,
If you sell your parents house, sell the family business / possessions, mum and dad’s shares etc, you may indeed get to $5m.
If your parents are rural producers, and have a cattle or crop property, with the land and equipment and stock, you could easily get to $5m.
Are you mean to your family property to pay the tax?
The UK has 40% death taxes (no threshold) , which is why the Brits spend up big when alive.
Well, on my quick reading, I took it too apply that it wouldn’t kick in til $5m, but maybe I have misunderstood? Anyway…..perhaps a Green person can explain?
SusieQ, Thanks for your take on the Greens policies. I too thought many of them sounded not unreasonable at first glance. But then I started to question HOW they might work in practice.
Ie.
Tax is already ultimately paid on a persons estate via Capital Gains Tax scheme. Death taxes would therefore represent a double up regardless of the threshold and I agree that anyone with close to $5m in personal assets will be able to afford a lawyer to ensure they get out of paying the tax. This surely mocks Bob Brown’s claim to close the tax loopholes by having “less legislation”, wouldn’t you agree?
My point here is that the Greens have had the benefit of being able to trumpet their “Ideals” as though they are “Policies”, but are never asked to show how these will work in practice. One of the benefits of being a minor party, I guess. They get to put their stamp on all new legislation in the name of a minority of the voting public. This results in frankenstein laws which dont work or are too complex, and then they turn around and blame the major parties for the complexity of the legislation and we all end up paying for it.
Bob Brown bemoans the complexity of the GST, but it was he who argued for all the exclusions which added thousands of pages to the core legislation in the first place. And he has still not been asked to show how the States will recoup the loss to their revenue pool if the GST is removed/reduced.
Maybe I am a bit cynical, but I am not sure that removing the 30% private health rebate will have any direct impact on public health funding as you suggest. It will have a direct impact on the number of people who can afford private health and an increase to those wanting to use the public health system. The debate about health and the appalling level of funding really belongs at a State level. I seem to remember Kevin Rudd announcing a big new health policy 60/40 with all the fanfare, but how much of this is actually occurring and how much of the legislatioin is before the parliament? None. My fear is that by the time Bob Brown and his cronies have their way in the Senate, the final workability of any new health plan will be an abomination. The cost in $ will be borne by the taxpayer, the real cost will be to the primary care givers and their patients.