Essential: Did the health debate wound Abbott?
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Tony Abbott’s personal approval rating has collapsed amongst voters and last week’s health debate appears to have played a significant role, a new Essential Research poll shows. This week’s Essential Report shows a recent spike in support for Labor disappearing, with its 2PP lead softening back to levels of early March at 54-46 (-2%/+2%), on the back of a 2% fall in the primary vote for both sides and a similar rise for the Greens. Kevin Rudd has failed to lift his approval ratings back to the highs of 2009, but has maintained his approval level with voters since Essential’s previous approval question on 22 February, with a 53%/36% approval/disapproval rating. Tony Abbott, however, has seen a substantial reversal in approval. While his approval ratings had lifted in February, he has now more than reversed that, with a 33%/50% rating compared to 45%/36% in February. The fall is across the board, but particularly among Labor voters. In February, Abbott had scored comparatively well with Labor voters, with a 28%/58% rating, but that has sunk to 16%/73%. Coalition voters have also cooled toward Abbott, with a 7% fall and increase in his approval/disapproval numbers. It fell among both male and female voters — Abbott now has the approval of less than one-third of female voters. But Coalition strategists will be concerned about the significant fall among voters over 50-years-old, where Abbott’s approval fell from around 60% to 40%. Given older voters are far more focused on health issues than younger voters, this suggests Abbott’s poor performance in last week’s health debate may have inflicted some damage on him. The Government was criticised in the commentariat for giving Abbott, a better debater than the Prime Minister, equal billing with Rudd, but the Government strategy of keeping attention focused on health may well have paid off by putting the spotlight on Abbott’s obstructionism and lack of an alternative plan. Essential found that Labor has an overall advantage of 45-25% on the issue of who will best deliver health care — although Abbott’s personal rating on that question is less dire — Rudd only leads him by 45-29%, perhaps suggesting voters don’t look as negatively on Abbott’s stint as health minister as negatively as Labor would like them to. Essential also explored how voters felt about the Government’s stimulus package and their overall economic confidence. Voters are less concerned about they or their family losing their jobs than at any time since the GFC, and 54% expect economic conditions to improve, in contrast to only 19% who expect them to worsen. That confidence has fed through into voters’ views on the stimulus package. While there remains strong support for all elements of the stimulus package except the insulation program (which was the least-liked element of the program back in February as well), more than half of voters now want the Government to address the budget deficit and curb spending, compared to 34% who want to see more support for economic recovery. After Easter and the school holidays, the political debate will begin to concentrate on economics and the looming Budget. The Government still faces the challenge of curbing spending growth without the sort of savage cuts that might endanger the transition from public-supported to private demand-driven growth. Essential’s poll suggests voters have already made up their minds that the time has come for normal economic management to resume. It will be up to the Coalition’s revamped economic team of Joe Hockey and Andrew Robb to exploit that. |
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42 Comments
There is a self-conscious attempt to come up with a ‘fair-and-balanced’ conclusion pointing to a way forward for the Liberals but really the story here is really about the final loss of any hope that the Liberals had of avoiding a rout at the election.
Abbott’s decline is calamitous for them and indicates also that those who were writing off the debate as something that would be forgotten very quickly were wrong. Abbott was massively shown up in that debate and there is now not enough time before the election to win the credibility he needs.
Tony Abbott’s problem in the Great Health Debate was his rudeness. Talking over his opponent, making disparaging personal remarks and raucous laughter are not prime-ministerial attributes. Tony Abbott proved Labor’s point that he is the Liberals’ version of Mark Latham. He avoided that crippling handshake but not the other hallmarks of agression. The debate caused grievous bodily harm to the Iron Monk.
The government does not actually control the economy beyond the taxes raised, I do wish people would get that simple point across.
And the failure of the insulation rate is a giant furphy - if the public don’t understand how incredibly successful it really was they will be negative.
The Essential Report is a weekly political poll conducted by EMC in partnership with the ALP.
Essentially it is a Push Poll - not to be taken seriously by anyone other than Dr Bernard.
@ShepherdMarilyn
“And the failure of the insulation rate is a giant furphy - if the public don’t understand how incredibly successful it really was they will be negative.”
Agree wholeheartedly, the ‘INSIDE STORY” elsewhere on Crikey only confirmed what many of us thought. should be essential reading to all the commentariat (though coming from an academic they’ll probably give it a wide berth.
Essential also confirmed the general feeling (again beyond that of part of the commentariat). Rudd landed the first blow by allowing Abbott to think he was a shoe-in in any debate. People noticed. They noticed Abbott’s manner and lack of substance. And they also noticed his use of spin — when someone trots out the recommnded line once too often, alarm bells sound. And they tolled for Abbott last week.
And while fitness is to be commended, the timing of his time-out for his exercise jaunt will also play into Labor’s hands. What happened to Rudd when he finally took a week or two off during the Xmas recess will come to pass for Abbott now. Over Xmas, Abbott had a field day because the PM was absent from the game — the press lapped him up because he was the only news available. Rudd should us the time to make hay now!
It should be essential for someone like SHEPHERDMARILYN to read the Margaret Simons article on Inside Story. Far be it for me to criticise ShepherdMarilyn’s political stance. However, it wouldn’t hurt her to at least read the damned thing.
Think, she may even come up with having a better balanced viewpoint.
Also, it is rather satisfying to read that even the Oz public draws the line at favouring political thuggery. Perhaps they too heard the forced shriek of laughter (?)
Shriek from an inmate in a mental institution, would describe it better.
If Tony had just had something/anything of policy substance last week I think he would have done a lot better. Instability in your leadership or not I would have hoped the Libs would have, by now, come out with some policies or ideas on how they’d do things differently across all their portfolios.
I won’t want to criticise Tony for the Ironman (i tore my calf training for a 1/2 ironman last year - its bloody hard work) but if he had committed to that before he took the leadership last year where are shadow ministers and the party room to generate some ideas. It takes a lot of effort to train for then complete an ironman… Its a pity the energy of the other Libs hasn’t been put to better use actually developing something of substance.
Venise why exactly do you, Liz and the the conga line of The Hairy Leg Brigade feel so threatened by Abbott.
After all these years of “femme fatale revolution” that has seen the young hard breasted feminists become short stumpy & plumpy post neo marxist grannies, do you all still feel so insecure that the heat generated in your loins by a fit conservative politician is driving you all nuts? Go with the flow for Christ’s sake - visit a sex shop or something.
The substance of anything substantial in our political neck of the bush has long gone. Iron man or not, they all end up wearing pull-ups sooner rather than later. Watch out for any strange bulges, they are clear signs of creeping incontinence and not masculinity. I believe, bicycle riders don’t wear anything under their lycras and they often get into coffee lounges, queuing and standing right next to raglan sleeved elderly ladies enjoying a bite of their croissants.
Are there any politicians that love outdoor chess?
Hmmm…. Have to chuckle at the leftist echo chamber.
I can see MaCallum is but merely a seat warmer of leftist drivel at the Billinudgel Front Bar for Bernard Keane’s main feature of … yet more leftist drivel.
I see Tony Abbott published a book called Battlelines full of policy ideas.
But ‘regrettably’ he didn’t do as Mr. Rudd and his PR queen: Keane wanted and prematurely delivered Coalition Health Policy on a date of Mr Rudd’s choosing.
Funny that.
As to whether Lala Shepherd could be described as balanced on any issue Venise…….
Don’t be ridiculous!
I return to this blog in order to be supremely smug
back in February, when the Tory trolls were cock a hoop about Abbott’s opinion poll figures, I dared the Abbott supporters on these pages to bet $100 against my assertion that Abbott’s net approval rating would be in negative territory before April Fool’s Day.
nobody had enough faith in Abbott to take the bet
He left it to the last minute, but Abbott has not disappointed.
it will be interesting to see if Newpoll have similar figures tomorrow
In a word, yes, it wounded him. Simply by the fact that it showed up what Tony Abbott is and always has been — a one-dimensional, out of date Tory politician in the mould of Thatcher and Howard — you know, the ones we so comprehensively tossed out at the last election.
The Libs have little chance of power again until the old guard are finished paying off their mortgages and clear off.
Still too much baggage from the Howard years, now re-including Bronwyn B and Phillip R!
MICHAEL: I have printed, time after time, after time, my reasons for not wanting Tony Abbott to be even close to become the prime minister.
He is a rabid catholic. He admits that, it’s no secret. He, despite the soothing words of the past few days, is against gays, against abortion, against euthanasia. In short, he would bring Australia back to the 1940’s and the 1950’s. He believes women should stay in their place, chained to a spectral ironing board.
There are large numbers of equally rabid Catholic people in the Coalition who would urge him on as he made each hard won bill achieved by women, redundant.
I believe I have the right, as an Australian citizen, to share my fears with any one who might listen.
The thought of women having to go to backyard abortionists in Victoria when, thanks to a conscience vote last year, it is now legal to have an abortion in this state appals me rigid.
As a matter of interest for you. Barnaby Joyce, leader of the National party is a rabid Catholic and anti-abortionist. Kevin Andrews another Jesuit trained Catholic is rabidly anti-euthanasia, Peter Ryan National Pary is an anti-abortionist, Kelly O’Dwyer, recently elected member for Higgins is a Catholic, Maxine McKew, Christopher Pyne, Julian McGuaran, Eric Abetz. They are all Catholic. As is Malcolm Turnbull. Although I do believe that Malcolm Turnbull, wouldn’t put his religion before his country.
As for Tony Abbott as a person, I’ve never met the man. Although his behaviour is risible. In short he is a political thug. One who has proved during his years in the Howard government, that he has no thoughts which would benefit this country, and no moral philosophy at all. Unless you would describe today’s Catholicism as a moral philosophy?
crikey.
Abbott isn’t the sharpest chisel in the woodworker’s belt .. but ..
some kudos for doing something physically demanding and quite a challenge.
Given that my daughter sits in front of a computer screen for 15 hours a day
(
I’d say stop the politics and give some credit to a “role model” (whatever that might be)
for getting off his arse… (apart from the bike ride.)
Let’s not mix the business with the pleasure .. he is a pretty ordinary thinker (not to say that
he isn’t a shrewd politician, but that’s no compliment) but that kinda effort deserves some respect.
I couldn’t do half of it.
Although I might have better policies.
MICHAEL: Why on earth would you imagine I might have hairy legs? Because I am left wing I am meant to be a dyke? How insufferably arrogant you are. My legs and my face used to be lusted after by the opposite sex, nor was there anything wrong with the rest of me. And you know what ‘they’ say. The best looking castles are the ones which are always under siege.
So cop that son!
LESPAULJUNIOR: Just make a person good at sport and the public will bow down to them. He wasn’t- I hope- elected on his sporting prowess. He was voted for by many sane (?) Liberal people who are now probably wondering how he got elected in the first place.
and I wouldn’t vote for him if it cost me my life. Nor should you.
LESPAULJUNIOR-Hes an oxford fellow, lets just assume hes smarter than you and move on.
Veniese he wasnt elected on his sporting prowess, but he damm well made Roxens fat ass look bad. As for the Health debate, I heard BS from both sides in the debate, it was clear Abbott and the Liberals dont yet have a policy. Thats ok, an election has yet to be called and in such a complex portfolio and in opposition he simply just does not have the man power and departmental staff to create effective policy…yet.
Mr Rudd on the other hand has a policy shop brimming with wonks and spinners and his health plan still sucked…so who really won the debate??
we all lost.
If varicose veins, hairy legs with imbibing the occasional macchiato in Norton Str are the domain of the left, so be it: Sipping Earl Grey tea, wearing the raglan sleeved DJ twin set with knee socks and sandals and akimbo on large leaf blowers on a Saturday morning are the privilage of being amongst the land of the Abbotters, often way out in the petunia patched up burbs too.
I wonder if he confesses taking Herman to the circus, it is a cardinal sin, you know?
@ Glen
‘-Hes an oxford fellow, lets just assume hes smarter than you and move on. ‘
Academically, someone can be of average intelligence and still do well through hard work. Playing the system and having the support of the right people can also help the mediocre rise to the top at university. Like most institutions, conformity rules.
On the other hand, some of the most brilliant people don’t make it academically because the ‘system’ stifles their creativity and inspiration.
As someone who has been part of that system, I’d say that you shouldn’t be that impressed by someone who has letters after their name.
Judging by the poison piece in conservative brains trust (aka The Australian) this morning about Turnbull briefing Abetz about Grech leaks for the Senate estimates melodrama, suggests to us Abbott’s mates are taking some insurance.
He’s a Rhodes boy. Typical though. They did not give them to women until after 1972. It still is a boys club riddled with misogynists and white knee socks.
The man who organised the exportation of English children to around the world including Australia was a Rhodes scholar. Read David Hill’s ‘The forgotten Children’.
The house of horrors called Fairbridge at Molong NSW.
@ GLEN: You may think he is smarter than me. I wouldn’t know if he was so until I met him.
Also, some of the greatest failures I’ve ever met have been sensationally clever at Uni.
Yep, Abbott and the liberals got a kicking by Newspoll as well.
the ‘man on the street’ knows little about the health debate..
If Swan survived after his performance against Costello, I’d say the same will happen with Abbott. Rudd would likely be more concerned with the overwhelming boo’s he received at a recent rugby match, a traditional blue collar sport, between the Broncos and the Raiders.
More illegal arrivals, rising interest rates, housing shortages, poor execution of policies, Garrett et al… the ALP have their hands full and the Coalition has an increasing stockpile of dynamite come later in the year.
if any lefty thinks everything is under control, ha!
@ Gerard - sorry to spoil your party, but I’m sure you know that Bob Hawke was a Rhodes scholar too…? whoops! or, is he excluded based on his yard glass feat, womanising and political persuasion?
I don’t think Bob Hawke would have ever called refugees ‘illegal arrivals’, that is so much more the domain of the liberals and their xenophobic hardline instant mashed potato munchers.
Bob Hawke, despite his humanity or because of it, stands out a mile above ABbott the hypocritically beloved patron of the bicycle seat sniffers.
Napoleon, you have nothing in common with your namesake except perhaps in his final delusional period - you know, the time he thought he could win against hopeless odds.
Napoleon, when you use the expression ‘rugby’ by itself, no other associated word, you will likely be taken to be meaning rugby union or ra-ra. However, you are talking about teams (Broncos, Raiders) which run in the other paddock - Rugby League. You’ve pulled your own pants down. I’d say your ‘man on the street’ knows little….. Full stop.
Haha, I have to laugh reading Michaels response to Venise Alstergren: Michael, you just sound like an old coedger who never got over the fact that you wife wont stay in the kitchen anymore. The hairy leg brigade? Please, try to focus on the question at hand rather than delivering the low blows that are so characteristic of the mad monk!
I dare say that with all polls turning against Abbott, and the realisation that they have surrendered the field on the economy, health, education and the environment, that we are going to see the Coalition making a big noise about immigration.
Hansonism is their policy of last resort
While everyone has been watching Tony prancing around in lycra and as an aside I found it remarkable that our ABC devoted much of its time to the Port Macquarie antics on Sunday, who has been watching Malcolm and his and his faithful sidekick Joe?
Joe has not asked a question on the economy for months. One day he wasn’t even present in question time as he was giving a speech on civil liberties and the anti terror laws. He is a very reluctant soldier in the Abbott army especially when he had to spend his time telling everyone that Barnaby was a dope.
Malcolm offers himself as a candidate for the front bench and Tony knocks him back. All the pundits led by Kelly think it was a wise move by Abbott. Looked dumb to me unless Abbott knows Turnbull is amassing the numbers for a challenge. I think he is. The primary vote of the Libs is at Beazley levels isn’t it? Now we have the leaks on the Grech matter coming from whom I wonder?
This is a party on the verge of a nervous breakdown. This is a re-run of the Peacock Howard years. The Libs are a hopelessly split party and they have only been quiet for the past few months because the lycra led recovery has given them a glimpse of power. But if that crumbles then they will be back to bickering rabble that they really are.
And when are the MSM going to lift their game? On the Insiders, David Marr, aside, we are watched Farr, Cassidy and Akerman excitedly talking about Tony in Lycra , fireman Tony, Tony action man figure. Meanwhile Newspoll is talking to the voters and they are saying what they really think and it coincides with the Government’s criticisms of him. And they weren’t saying that off the top of their head Labor has polled lycra Tony to death and they know what the voters are thinking. Get out of the lycra and get back to your day job. That pedal for pollies is looming as Tony’s equivalent of the retreat from Moscow,.
PS after the worm was described as an idiot by Miranda it seems the worm knew more about what was happening than she did but does that come as an surprise. It’s like reading as I did today that Tony Martin has declared he is gay.
LOKATT@ “Haha, I have to laugh reading Michaels response to Venise Alstergren: Michael, you just sound like an old coedger”
Look I am on the edge but I’m no coedger. I’m 16.
And whilst I don’t like Cougars, I must say Venise Estrogen is really turning me on.
Liz on the other hand is way too young for me.
Oops wrong Martin Ricky Martin is gay Not Tony
It’s Ricky not Tony
@ Napoleon
‘@ Gerard - sorry to spoil your party, but I’m sure you know that Bob Hawke was a Rhodes scholar too…? whoops! or, is he excluded based on his yard glass feat, womanising and political persuasion?’
Your comment above just reinforces the argument that being a Rhodes scholar does not make you a genius, political or otherwise.
Kim was a Rhodes scholar too
@Durutticolumn.
Yes, but he is a good one. The one with a lycra fetish is not so good.
I await with great interest the Lib clan bursting into print in denial of this mornings Liberal (Australian) News Ltd poll. For the last 3 polls as The Mad Monk enjoyed the fruits of novelty, a honymoon, and sheer indulgence, reality has well and truely started to set in. What does Minchin really know? Incidentally this poll was conducted after the sacking of Barny Rubble on grounds of incompetence and stupidity in financial matters. So even though Abbott was well aware the News Ltd poll was coming a couple of days after the order of the boot, the expected positives he would have hoped for, did not eventuate. Also he failed to grasp, Turnbull still has a large following in Liberal supporters ranks, as well as the Coalition caucus. Wonder who he consulted before saying no to MT?
Or was it just outright fear.
@ David
‘Also he failed to grasp, Turnbull still has a large following in Liberal supporters ranks, as well as the Coalition caucus. Wonder who he consulted before saying no to MT?’
Yep — people often forget that he only defeated MT by 1 vote for the leadership. With mover and shaker Minchin soon to be out of the picture, does Malcolm look at gathering the numbers to try and overthrow the Mad Monk?
My guess is that the govt. would prefer to fight Abbott.
Malcolm would certainly appeal to those in the middle ground much more. Abbott has the conservative base, but nothing more.
The nationals lost ground after the election and haven’t come close to getting back any of that lost 1.5% of the vote despite the high profile Barnaby provided over the past few months. So that extreme right-wingedness hasn’t done a lot for the coalition overall.
Now Abbott’s honeymoon has subsided and the govt. probably allowed him his time in the sun so he could have the opportunity to shoot himself in the foot ( — as he did in the debate), they’ll be gunning for him. They’ve had time to look at his M.O. and see what they need to focus on.
And the economy, the coalition’s usual hunting ground, will be a more level playing field than in the past. Chances are: the budget will come out much better than the forecasts, so the deficit won’ be a good tool for the coalition; the actual results from the inquiry into the insulation scheme will be more favorable to the govt. than the Libs would like and like utegate, their assertions will be shown to have been extreme and destructive (since they called for the cancellation of the scheme which caused more problems than the scheme itself).
Also, by the time of the budget or shortly after, a lot more of the govt’s programs will have reaped rewards (jobs figs. etc.) and the only ground that the opposition can fight on is the refugee question — which has been blown out of all proportion.
One thing I desperately hope is that Rudd calls a double dissolution so the whole senate is up for re-election (if that IS the correct procedure?) becuase people like Fielding really need to go.
GERARD: The only Cardinal Sin I know of is the late Cardinal Sin of the Philippines.
Joke over, comedienne dead!
Why is going to the circus a cardinal sin?
MICHAEL: Down boy; down Fido! Sit!
VENISE:
“Taking Herman to the Circus” is akin to “waxing the carrot”, “pullen the pud” and other basic manual habits. They are big sins and ensure an everlasting hell if not confessed in time. Of course, going to confession every couple of days wasn’t my idea of a loving deity.
Hope this helps.
Gerard
GERARD: As in “Stop it or you will be going blind?” Thanks a lot for the info.
