Westfield: Abbott is a chance, as Rudd runs out the clock on reform
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The plunge in Kevin Rudd and Labor’s opinion poll figures, and the corresponding recovery of the Tony Abbott-led coalition has caught most pundits (including this writer) by surprise. It has been the speed of the Labor fall from grace that has been most surprising — triggered by the insulation batts fiasco, but due also to a number of slow-burn policy failures — rather than a closing of the poll gap itself, which was widely expected on both sides of politics as we move towards an election. Tony Abbott finds himself in a fortunate position, courtesy of Rudd’s many failings. But then the opposition knew it was only a matter of time before voters wised up to Rudd, though the wait has been frustratingly long. Malcolm Turnbull fought so hard for his leadership because he also knew that this swing away from the government would happen. Rudd suddenly looks like a rabbit caught in the spotlight, though he is transforming himself from being a leader overconfident to the point of hubris, to the more palatable position of underdog. However, the reality is more complex than this. What appears to be a potentially election-losing shift in the polls for Labor could easily be mishandled by Abbott and his colleagues. They will need to continue fighting hard to keep Labor on the back foot and any complacency, or premature arrogance, will be punished heavily come election time. I still believe Labor can and will win the next election, but the remarkable string of policy failures and blunders and unmet promises by Rudd Labor are taking their toll, and the contest is shaping to be far closer than I — or most observers — would have believed at the turn of the new year. From consultation with former colleagues, I get the sense Labor will still increase its majority, but not by the 10 seats I believed at the end of last year — more like a net two or three. If Labor’s margin increases only narrowly, the coalition numbers men (they are overwhelmingly men, and to the right in the coalition’s spectrum) will see this as a moral victory justifying their decision to risk all by dumping Turnbull in favour of Abbott, and a victory of sorts for the opposition given the dire predictions of only a month or two ago. The recent boundary redistribution has rendered five coalition seats notionally Labor, so a net loss of anything less than this number will be regarded as a net gain and a reasonable outcome. Seats will change hands both ways through a combination of circumstances, including the retirement of previously popular members, Labor ‘oncers’ who skated in on the swing towards Labor in 2007, and other one-off factors peculiar to particular seats — such as the emergence of a strong coalition candidate or a change in an electorate’s persuasion due to the redistribution. The coalition is likely to lose nine seats:
Meanwhile, the coalition may win up to six seats:
Also up for grabs are Swan and Stirling in Western Australia, Bennelong and Gilmore in New South Wales and Boothby and Sturt in South Australia. Wins in Corangamite and Deakin (Vic), Wright (Qld) and Macquarie (NSW) would be an upset. The ‘up for grabs’ and potential surprises for the coalition all hinge on whether Kevin Rudd and his leadership team begin to convert their policy inaction of the last two years into tangible reforms, but time is running out. A coalition win is unlikely, but should not be ruled out. This article first appeared on Business Spectator. |
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14 Comments
Before you write anymore of this silly stuff, go and look up ‘plunge’. It does not mean ‘a very slight reduction leaving you still very well-placed’ and comfortably ahead of your rival.
yep, would still like to back Kevin 07 if you’re a betting man Mr. Westfield, and given that you hitched your wagon to Malcolm Turnbull, I’d suggest you are
I hope Abbott does improve the Coalition’s vote, just enought to keep him there. That way, he’ll turn into their Kim Beazley (i. e., not quite up to winning, but too popular with the rusted-ons to discard).
Hey, where’s MPM? Thought this would warrant a comment from him!
The article, if you’re a betting man/woman — is a dollar each way. So, the coalition will call it a victory if they only lose a further 3 or 4 seats, will they? Hmmm — that doesn’t pay a dividend, no matter what way you look at it.
What if it is the current 9 - 15 seats, what kind of positive spin will the coalition and press put on that? They seem to be able to see the positive side of everything of late, including Barnaby’s constant ineptitude.
And what happens when the senate standing c’tee report comes down and shows that there was no negligence on the part of minister Garrett? I watched the c’tee very closely, and not once did they uncover any wrong doing during the televised sessions (despite the apparent attack dog attitude from the chair and a couple of other conservatives). What media mileage will they make of that? Will the coalition end up with egg on their faces as with utegate?
An interesting election year ahead.
I think there’s something in this.
Rudd and Labor’s problems are of their own making.
Rudd is “financially independent”, doesn’t have much practical empathy with real workers, has spent most of his working life in PS, and has seemingly chosen to live in a bubble, surrounding himself with “musack advisors” because he doesn’t like “fingernail on black-board” alternate views.
Then there’s the “machine”, throwing up too many examples of “candy-dates” all mouth and no trousers, who have served time on the shelf and with their shelf-life almost up, are sold to the public.
“Dills” like Arbib have been raised in “Labor-itories”, and have sod all experience out here, and “arbibs” aren’t confined to one side either!
What they do have going for them is “Abbott”, at the moment!
And all Abbott has to offer is exaggerated, undivided, unquestioning popular (“Murdoch”) media sponsored “coverage” and “hologram, and considering ‘breeding’, as yet to be disproved, noncore promises policies” - “Don’t see what you want? What’s today, Tuesday? Come back Friday?”
Westfield - spoken like a true Turnbull sidekick.
But it may well be just wishful thinking, I suspect that - horror of horrors - people actually like Tony and now know that Malcolm was, is and always will be a wood duck.
Shaping up as an interesting election, but the sleeper is that the YRAW campaign that won the 2007 election will not be there for Labor. YRAW won 20 out of 24 seats contested and it was interesting that on election day voters in Longman were bypassing Labor how to votes and asking for YRAW how to votes (which were identical). Gillards betrayal, through abject ignorance, of working men and women, and their willingness to campaign for just, fair and safe workplaces may just result in a higher vote for the Greens than would otherwise be anticipated. If the Greens were to actually do continuous campaigning for this election they may do very well indeed, as Labor is on the nose with the entire left of its own party.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen or heard a member of the coalition conclude from any result anything other than vindication of their position, whatever that position or result may have been.
TomBoy - please don’t tempt it, wash your mouth out.
Seen it all before - a couple of “issues” that a pliant, and at times little short of loopy, media leap on to and start saying “ooh, it’s so close, soooo close!” when it isn’t.
Yes of course the Libs could win - if urban Australia has a collective mental seizure. Then we’ll all be planting trees in car parks.
I think heaps of people hated Turnbull, and that they do like Tony Abbott.
At least he is real and not a zillionare .
People got excited about Rudd in 07, I don’t think anybody is now.
Tony Abbott is a man that is very attractive, esp compared with the Rudbot.
I know who I would rather be stuck in a lift with.
Perhaps Australia will make the same choice. Turnbull was like having a captain that thought he was on the other team. Rudd is falling apart with just a couple of months of real opposition.
How nice.
ya’ll bag Barnaby Joyce- but name one thing Rudd has said
that sticks in your head like..
” If they can’t run a pink batt progame…”
No, I can’t either.
to say nothing of the one about the light in the fridge stopping the butter getting scared
the guy is a poet.
Rudd is falling apart? 50% plus popularity is falling apart? His performance at the National Press club today is falling apart? The economic credibility of the govt. as cited by the figs today shows he’s falling apart? On some other planet maybe.
Barnaby might be entertaining — but would you want an entertainer to hold the purse strings? It’s like asking my local greengrocer to do my tax. My greengrocer is a nice bloke with a cute one-liner but in this case apples and caviar don’t mix.
Yet that madness is obviously catching — first Abbott and Barnaby — then the press … with the justification that they’re ‘authentic’. What does that mean? Is it like saying Bazza McKenzie should be PM?
I’ll go for steady intelligent administration over the ‘authentics’ any day!