Comments on: The real costs of Rudd’s CPRS are just starting to surface http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/09/the-real-costs-of-rudds-cprs-are-just-starting-to-surface/ now with extra source Sun, 12 Feb 2012 10:13:47 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Jonathan Maddox http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/09/the-real-costs-of-rudds-cprs-are-just-starting-to-surface/#comment-45264 Jonathan Maddox Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:42:21 +0000 http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/09/the-real-costs-of-rudds-cprs-are-just-starting-to-surface/#comment-45264 All these supposed losses are as against a "reference scenario" which purports to show economic growth from "business as usual" four decades into the future. Any such forecast must make some assumptions, about habits, politics, migration, oil depletion, the international market price of fossil fuels. The state of these things decades into the future is not knowable. To treat this forecast as somehow reliable while casting aspersions on the similar assumptions which must have been made in the non-reference scenarios us just laughable. All these supposed losses are as against a “reference scenario” which purports to show economic growth from “business as usual” four decades into the future.

Any such forecast must make some assumptions, about habits, politics, migration, oil depletion, the international market price of fossil fuels. The state of these things decades into the future is not knowable.

To treat this forecast as somehow reliable while casting aspersions on the similar assumptions which must have been made in the non-reference scenarios us just laughable.

]]> By: Scott http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/09/the-real-costs-of-rudds-cprs-are-just-starting-to-surface/#comment-44880 Scott Tue, 10 Nov 2009 03:32:52 +0000 http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/09/the-real-costs-of-rudds-cprs-are-just-starting-to-surface/#comment-44880 Nice analysis there Sinclair. I must admit, I was very sceptical by the analysis in the Garnaut report regarding the macro-economic effects of an emissions trading scheme. It should have been worthy of its own chapter, not just added in along with projected revenues and costs of the actual scheme itself. Assuming wages will drop to counteract the extra carbon emission related costs of production is a big assumption. According to the AD-AS model, it should be the case, but as mentioned above, wages have a stickiness that prevents real wages dropping in the short to medium term (due to unions, contracts, above the odds salaries to recruit talented staff etc). As real wages are nominal wages/prices, CPI would have increase by large amounts to have the same effect. Everyone seems to be glossing over the effect a supply shock such as an ETS can have on the economy in the short to medium term. We are talking unemployment across the board (not just in energy related industries) and high inflation, not a very enticing prospect. Nice analysis there Sinclair. I must admit, I was very sceptical by the analysis in the Garnaut report regarding the macro-economic effects of an emissions trading scheme. It should have been worthy of its own chapter, not just added in along with projected revenues and costs of the actual scheme itself. Assuming wages will drop to counteract the extra carbon emission related costs of production is a big assumption. According to the AD-AS model, it should be the case, but as mentioned above, wages have a stickiness that prevents real wages dropping in the short to medium term (due to unions, contracts, above the odds salaries to recruit talented staff etc). As real wages are nominal wages/prices, CPI would have increase by large amounts to have the same effect. Everyone seems to be glossing over the effect a supply shock such as an ETS can have on the economy in the short to medium term. We are talking unemployment across the board (not just in energy related industries) and high inflation, not a very enticing prospect.

]]> By: Rohan http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/09/the-real-costs-of-rudds-cprs-are-just-starting-to-surface/#comment-44858 Rohan Tue, 10 Nov 2009 02:15:47 +0000 http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/09/the-real-costs-of-rudds-cprs-are-just-starting-to-surface/#comment-44858 Quite an interesting piece. Although the conclusions do not meaningfully reflect the limitations alluded to earlier in the article, it does raise some very important points about the PM's rhetoric and evasiveness surrounding the issues. Quite an interesting piece. Although the conclusions do not meaningfully reflect the limitations alluded to earlier in the article, it does raise some very important points about the PM’s rhetoric and evasiveness surrounding the issues.

]]> By: Rodger Davies http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/09/the-real-costs-of-rudds-cprs-are-just-starting-to-surface/#comment-44806 Rodger Davies Mon, 09 Nov 2009 10:46:21 +0000 http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/09/the-real-costs-of-rudds-cprs-are-just-starting-to-surface/#comment-44806 The real costs of climate change denial may surface soon. but that obviously doesn't bother you. Presumably the mining and energy companies that fund IPA are paying you well. You, the IPA and the rest of the Agnotology Industry are enough to give me a brain explosion. ("Agnotology, formerly agnatology, is a neologism for the study of culturally-induced ignorance or doubt, particularly the publication of inaccurate or misleading scientific data. " from Wikipedia.) The real costs of climate change denial may surface soon. but that obviously doesn’t bother you. Presumably the mining and energy companies that fund IPA are paying you well. You, the IPA and the rest of the Agnotology Industry are enough to give me a brain explosion. (“Agnotology, formerly agnatology, is a neologism for the study of culturally-induced ignorance or doubt, particularly the publication of inaccurate or misleading scientific data. ” from Wikipedia.)

]]> By: AR http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/09/the-real-costs-of-rudds-cprs-are-just-starting-to-surface/#comment-44796 AR Mon, 09 Nov 2009 09:31:46 +0000 http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/09/the-real-costs-of-rudds-cprs-are-just-starting-to-surface/#comment-44796 Let's start by taxing, say at 150%, all corporate donations to the IPA. Go out naked into the free market Sinclair, let's see who feeds you. Let’s start by taxing, say at 150%, all corporate donations to the IPA. Go out naked into the free market Sinclair, let’s see who feeds you.

]]> By: j-boy57 http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/09/the-real-costs-of-rudds-cprs-are-just-starting-to-surface/#comment-44748 j-boy57 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 05:36:43 +0000 http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/09/the-real-costs-of-rudds-cprs-are-just-starting-to-surface/#comment-44748 I'm sure most people would take a ten year reduction in real wages if it was across the board. Lets start with coal and lpg vehicles. Its called the precautionary principle which is what Sinclair applies to any chance of offending an emitter. I’m sure most people would take a ten year reduction
in real wages if it was across the board.
Lets start with coal and lpg vehicles.
Its called the precautionary principle which is what
Sinclair applies to any chance of offending an emitter.

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