http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/05/government-has-lowered-expectations-on-labour-market-success/ now with extra source Sun, 12 Feb 2012 11:47:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/05/government-has-lowered-expectations-on-labour-market-success/#comment-44141 Scott Thu, 05 Nov 2009 04:01:47 +0000 http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/05/government-has-lowered-expectations-on-labour-market-success/#comment-44141 I do have a problem with Sinclair's argument regarding overstimulation. As Mark mentions, it is almost impossible to prove either way. But you have to go with the outcomes over a timeframe in economics. I think the outcomes produced over the short/medium run have vindicated the stimulation. This whole argument reminds me of the year 2000 bug. I was working in IT at that time and remember the vast amounts of money and man-hours that were spent in making our applications, mainframes and servers year 2000 compliant. Then, when all our hard work was vindicated by a successful date change, there were the punters saying that the problem had been overestimated as nothing happened! Nothing happened because the IT guys fixed it! So is with the economy in 2009. I do have a problem with Sinclair’s argument regarding overstimulation. As Mark mentions, it is almost impossible to prove either way. But you have to go with the outcomes over a timeframe in economics. I think the outcomes produced over the short/medium run have vindicated the stimulation.
This whole argument reminds me of the year 2000 bug. I was working in IT at that time and remember the vast amounts of money and man-hours that were spent in making our applications, mainframes and servers year 2000 compliant. Then, when all our hard work was vindicated by a successful date change, there were the punters saying that the problem had been overestimated as nothing happened! Nothing happened because the IT guys fixed it! So is with the economy in 2009.

]]> http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/05/government-has-lowered-expectations-on-labour-market-success/#comment-44134 Mark Duffett Thu, 05 Nov 2009 03:19:46 +0000 http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/05/government-has-lowered-expectations-on-labour-market-success/#comment-44134 This is why the words 'economics' and 'science' should never be used in the same sentence. Because there's only one real world, you can never have experimental controls. How can you possibly distinguish between Davidson's "the economy did not collapse as forecast" and therefore "in its panic the government has over-stimulated the economy", versus the government/Treasury view that, simply, the stimulus worked as intended? This is why the words ‘economics’ and ‘science’ should never be used in the same sentence. Because there’s only one real world, you can never have experimental controls. How can you possibly distinguish between Davidson’s “the economy did not collapse as forecast” and therefore “in its panic the government has over-stimulated the economy”, versus the government/Treasury view that, simply, the stimulus worked as intended?

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