Wall St was down 94 overnight, its biggest fall in a month, while the local market is down 66.
Rudd might as well flick the dissolution switch
|
My favourite moment in fifties sci-fi and monster films was when the hero futilely emptied his revolver into an oncoming threat and then, out of ammunition, would hurl the gun at it, as if, although resistant to bullets, it would be brought to a halt by lobbing a kilo of metal at it. Malcolm Turnbull is now at the chucking-the-gun stage of proceedings against Kevin Rudd. Everything it has fired at him has bounced off. Even boat people aren’t having any effect. The spike in boat arrivals and greater media focus on asylum seekers has only seen an increase in Labor’s 2PP vote which, according to Newspoll, is now 59-41. They’re the sort of numbers other polls have been producing for a while. Newspoll has approached them before, but looked like a rogue result when it has done so. Today’s numbers are on the back of two previous polls of the same order of magnitude. Essential Research produced a 58-42 poll and, more damningly, a set of responses showing significant, and growing, endorsement of the Government’s economic management and an understanding that interest rate rises reflected the recovery rather than the myth of a too-prolonged stimulus. Less than a quarter of respondents saw any connection between interest rate rises and the stimulus, and less than a quarter believed the stimulus package wasn’t necessary. In any event, 64% of respondents thought interest rates rises would have no (36%) or little (28%) effect on them. Forget 58-42 or 59-41, these are killer numbers because they show the entire Coalition economic narrative has failed. In fact , they’re not even convincing the decreasing number of Australians who support them. Part of Turnbull’s strategy on climate change has been to get it off the agenda because the Coalition can’t win on it and it is sucking oxygen from his attempts to exploit other issues. But it looks like economic issues are developing the same toxicity as climate change and other issues that Labor owns, meaning if he does manage to get that precious “clear air”, his preferred message is being rejected by voters. That’s on the basis that voters are even paying attention to him, and one wonders if that’s the case. The Liberals badly need a reboot of their economic strategy because the one they’ve got might actually be harming them. Their Coalition colleagues shouldn’t take any heart from recent events. The Nationals have remained stuck at 4% for months in Newspoll. They argue, perhaps correctly, that the polls inevitably understate their vote. But it’s not so long since we were hearing about some sort of Coalition resurgence in regional Australia on the back of opposition to the CPRS. The numbers show nothing except polling results stuck well below its 5.5% vote in 2007. From such a strong polling position, you’d think it would embolden the Government to chance its arm on reform issues, but that’s not Kevin Rudd. The bigger his lead, the safer he plays, looking to hang on to every possible advantage he’s got. Thus far it’s working a treat, because no leader has ever managed such an extraordinary run in the polls – and remember Bob Hawke had the Howard-Peacock feud and Joh-for-PM working for him. The only emboldening will probably occur on the CPRS negotiations, where the Government will reckon the threat of an apocalyptic double dissolution outcome will have the Coalition in deep disarray. After looking at the Coalition’s amendments yesterday, I thought that the chances of a CPRS deal were good. Given the CPRS itself will accomplish little in the way of reducing carbon emissions, boosting compensation to industry and coal mining as urged by the Coalition would hardly reduce its environmental benefits. The only problem would be ensuring the scheme didn’t draw on the Budget, given the Government is keen to get on a clear track back to surplus. But with such a strong position, they may figure they’ll get their CPRS through after a double dissolution with minimal risk, so why bother coming to terms with an Opposition so patently and profoundly out of favour with voters? |
|
|
16 Comments
Yeah go on Kev.
Go the Double Dissolution.
I’d pay to be sitting in parliament watching you and your Cabinet negotiate and deal with all the loopy Left lunatics and Greentards Bernie hear swears will enter parliament if you do.
More fun than watching Fev’s Alcoholic Intervention Groups Christmas Break-up drinks.
There is something almost not human about Rudd’s ability to hold the line against incoming fire.
As for the Opposition leader, he must be thinking this is all too hard compared to running abusiness where everybody just does what they are told.
Australia has a foreign debt representing 56% of GDP and gross foreign liabilities of 150% of GDP.
Most of its major companies are effectively owned by international banks and without ongoing international funding we would have the same problems as Ireland. Once all of the resources we have are owned by the internationalists ,what will happen to the Australian people?. I know, we can join the global community and beg for our existence. We exist at the leisure of the international financiers.
Forget a few boats and a meaningless ETS, forget about the plunder of the worlds natural resources.
How about we talk about our economic future and the demise of the nation state everyone!
Yes, we are at risk of being reduced to squatting in our own corporate free-trade zone. One thing at a time, however. If you are going to have an ETS you might as well have one which actually works. So lets have another election, get rid of the remaining paleo-nationals and elect some much needed ‘greentards’ - which I actually always thought was the national uniform of the Australian olympic gymnastics team.
And now (wodner of wonders) the NFF is at odds with the Nats over climate change, it’s a shit sandwich except nobody brought along any bread.
There’s two things to this Bernard that I can’t fathom. First For the life of me I can’t see why they persist. Surely to Baal they’d do better going to ground on climate change, the economy and refugess. Let the govt make the running and make the mistakes. Use the time to actually pay someone to do some issues polling and come out to kick the govt where its going to hurt. You have to know the vulnerable bits of your alien monster. The only conclusion I come to is that Turnbull the tyro is no good at politics (which is a shame) and the coaliton is so deeply factonalised that he can’t see how to move forward. When Turnbull stood up to the party room they went all kittenish like LNP party rooms seem to in the face of leadership. Why then doesn’t he pull in the heads that keep on these worse than useless attacks
No. 2 If Rudd won’t spend his political capital now, well, WHY DID HE GET ELECTED??????
I agree that the opposition is looking rather useless at the moment, however I suspect a lot of people will not hold the line that they are currently telling pollsters, once a double dissolution looms.
The Coalition will call this the unnecessary election, the electorate may well feel that Rudd is kicking his opponents when they’re down, thereby making the Coalition the underdog, the rural constituencies hate the very idea of an ETS, which be magnified by the hothouse of an election campaign, where moderation gets run over by rhetoric and the thought of the greens having the balance of power and forcing an even more crippling ETS on the nation may well combine to reduce the whitewash that will happen at the next election.
Note I don’t say there will not be a whitewash, just that it may not be as crushing as the polls currently suggest, come the time when people actually have to put pen to paper in a ballet box.
Besides, governments in Australia have to be functionally appalling before the electorate tosses them out. Almost all governments get two terms, Rudd knows this, thereby why shorten the time he is in, when his chance to win the next election is pretty much in the bank anyway?
I seem to remember a certain Gordon Brown in a similar position to Rudd not two years ago and the speculation then was that he had to go early and not let such an opportunity slip.
He did and it did. Now you couldn’t raffle him at an EU social. Personally I can’t see why the mindless adoration for any politician Obama included. It always ends in betrayal. Still, without such speculation to fill our otherwise inconsequential existence, we’d be back rabbiting on about Red Symonds and Black Faces.
I don’t feel they’ll play the double dissolution card on this issue alone, unless directed ALP private polling shows an overwhelming result for labor in key seats on the CPRS/ETS single issue.
Bernard, A dd would give labor less power in the senate with a chance of more dingbats getting in (FF etc) if one reads AG’s blog site and if anything Kevin is very bright and knows just how to pull the oppositions strings.
Roll on election 2011 and gump many more fiberals
I can’t see Rudd pushing for a double dissolution, mainly on the grounds of his conservatism. I think he would do it in a flash if Steve Fielding dropped dead and he would do it if there was an impending split within the Coalition.
Could it be that Kevin Rudd doesn’t ask himself ‘How I should plan to my maximize my power?” but rather, “How may I best harm the Opposition, in order to maximize my power?” There is a lot of difference between the two mind-sets.
RICHARD WILSON - You may be interested in this letter that appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald, in response to someone rabbiting on about the terrible things this Labor govt was doing with the economy, blah blah blah!
It was about the time of the Malcolm Turnbull “debt truck”! July 10 2009
“Before a desperate Malcolm Turnbull starts driving his new LIberal Party debt truck, he should own up about the last one.
When John Howard launched it while campaigning for election in 1996, he said nothing better symbolised the failure of Labor’s economic management than the fact that Australia “owed the rest of the world $180 billion” in net foreign debt. When the Liberals lost office in 2007, Australia “owed the world” $550 billion. In 1996, the total national debt was $700 billion. By 2007 it had grown to $3.2 trillion. The Liberal Party’s real record on debt is appalling”.
I get so sick of the Libs carrying on about Labor’s mismanagement and how great Costello was blah blah, I just about puke! And what did we get for it? Zilch! Infrastructure neglected, health, education etc - all suffered under Howard! At least the Labor govt is trying to make up for this obscene neglect!
One of the aspects of this neglect that I’ve only heard reference to on one occasion, is the state of many bridges around the country. Some have been standing for up to 100 yrs or more? and there are many that will need strengthening if not replacing altogether. Local govt can’t afford the huge cost of this, it should be a national responsiblity - like some major highways (but not of course the Princes Highway???)
I wish Rudd would pull on a DD. He has up to some date next August, which would negate the rubbish about the electorate not liking early polls etc. It would only be a couple of months early, or perhaps earlier. I’d hope to get rid of Fielding and some conservatives?
I hope the Krudd does what Bernard Keane suggests.
It might retrospectively be viewed as the best thing for 2 party democracy in this country at some future time.
It might even spell the beginning of the end of our leftist 4th estate and that would be the best possible thing for individual liberty and democracy.
I pray the pain begins without bipartisanship as a Canutian Copenhagen World Government will not alter climate change, whatever its cause, one jot.
The irony is that Turnbull actually fervently believes the IPCC whilst the Krudd believes that he can use the IPCC and with the help of Bernard Keane et al…….so indeed he can.
If Obama can take his party with him, and the Dems hold filibuster proof majorities in both houses, there will be in effect a new world order with powers to act against recalcitrant states.
Perhaps the Krudd can become the first puppet head of this new international regulatory agency?
Then at least we’d get Julia………
“Man-Made Climate Change” is a myth.
” man made climate change is a myth,”
It may well be so unless another myth, that invisible superior being, who is in control of all there is, intervenes to save us all from ourselves………..no doubt some people believe this nonsense.
.
Re Adamneira
If you are not right now, then failure to reduce CO2 dramatically in the next few years will make you right by 2020. By that time climate change will have become naturally reinforced with a whole lot of feedback mechanisms, making huma action thoroughly pointless. Clathrates in the ocean and tundra have the capacity to dwarf our greenhouse emissions. So, as Peter says, you had better get moving on the climate or the rapture, because you are going to need one of them.
Liz45 wrote:
“I get so sick of the Libs carrying on about Labor’s mismanagement and how great Costello was blah blah, I just about puke!”
___
Love this quote from Ross Gittins:
“Peter Costello may yet make an excellent prime minister, but he couldn’t hold down a job as a teacher of high school economics. Ask him how fiscal policy works and he confidently gives you the wrong answer.”
The Age, 14 May 2005
http://www.theage.com.au/news/Ross-Gittins/Will-Costellos-budget-force-Reserves-hand/2005/05/13/1115843370320.html