The referred site is actually not the BOM, and is one which has been set up entirely to present wind power in the best possible light. However, I will explain the correctness of my assertion by using the short quotation from the BOM, as it appeared on that wind farm site.

1. “BOM records typically show that there is good wind speeds on the hottest days in the summer. For example, wind blows typically 98 percent of the time across western Victoria at 3pm in the summer months.” This does not address the fact that during winter (we are talking about Victoria) the same statement is not true and, in fact, the peaks are close to dawn and just after dark. Ever heard the phrase “the still of the evening”? Ever considered that a calm morning is the norm, and that wind speed generally builds as the temperature builds through the day?

Summer peaks are a little more complex than winter peaks, and it is only during recent years that the summer peak has matched the winter peak and this is entirely due to air conditioning load, which is optional. We can more easily reduce A/C load than do without dinner.

2. “The BOM records show that wind speeds are higher in the afternoons than in the mornings.” This makes no statement about whether or not wind can or will reliably meet peak diurnal consumption. It definitely makes no reference at all to winter, when energy loads are higher than in summer (although peaks may be similar).

My reference to solar being “ditto” is an allusion to the fact that sunshine before dawn and after dusk is a very rare commodity and cannot help with morning or evening peaks.

Evan may wish that dirunal peaks matched the availability of solar and wind to contribute, however this is clearly and demonstrably not typically true. QED.

Wishful thinking is a poor substitute for rational, fact-based analysis… Suggestion: Next time you wish to quote a source, pick one which is (a) not so clearly biased and in the control of spin doctors; and (b) pick a quotation which actually supports your argument.

I’m going to correct some of the propoganda above, mostly using links.

“wind does indeed tend to drop at peak times “

Wrong. http://www.sustainability.vic.gov.au/resources/documents/SV_Wind_Energy.pdf
p7. “Data from the BoM shows that Victoria has higher average wind speeds in mid afternoon over summer when demand is highest”

“Ditto solar” Presumably you’re suggesting that solar drops in the afternoon? That doesn’t make sense on any level. Insolation is most directly related to the angle that sunlight hits the receiver. Tracking, even single axis trackers fix this. For fixed receivers, it is possible (as is being done in Blacktown Solar Cities project) to fix the receiver to pick up most light in the late aftenoon.

Tried an extra blanket?

I’m not really sorry for the flippant response, however simply turning off all the power sources that are out of favour is not the way to go - the nights would indeed be cold.

How about some signs of progress? Admit that wind does indeed tend to drop at peak times (eg morning and evening), so it is not in any way a sufficient solution. Ditto solar PV, tidal (NIMY issues here), Wave (Too small, unsightly, unproven…), Hot rocks (Cooper basin’s current problems, unproven, tends to be far away from transmission lines), nuclear (Illegal at present. Who wants to change federal law?) and the list goes on.

It’s not much of an answer, but CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbines) are both carbon-effective wrt coal - both brown and black - and are current technology, off the shelf. Support CCGT by renewables (Solar, either type) and/or a mix of the other unreliable but proven alternatives and we are on the way.

Now, where in either the Government’s or the Opposition’s positions do these strategies get traction?

10GW tomorrow, we cannot do. How about 11GW in, say, 10 years, with about 25% of the current carbon cost? That is indeed possible and practical - at a price.

The last GW is for battery driven cars using high density battery storage of one of the available styles. Pick one from 4 or 5, the top being H2 and fuel calls.

Perhaps we need to put up with coal in all of its ugly forms for a bit longer, while the infrastructure, markets and populace develop an understanding of the values and limitations of the emerging technologies. In other words, run the existing carbon-heavy plant while they are replaced by the new stuff for both electricity and land transport.

There’s really no other option.

So let’s answer it, what are we going to replace brown coal with? We are cheating our grandchildren if we replace this hydrocarbon with any other hydrocarbon, including gas .

Respondents to Crikey articles speak vaguely of “renewables”, waving the word around as though it is holy, that by its utterance we are washed of our carbon-emitting sins.

Do you mean wind plus coal? Or solar plus coal? Or geothermal plus coal? If we are to get to zero carbon emissions by the year 2100, none of those options should being considered in 2009.

So what is going to provide Victoria with up to 10 GW of electricity on a still, cold night?

The only reason the government gets away with burning brown coal is that the majority of people don’t care. Notwithstanding the claims about global warming, the average Victorian citizen would rather have a warm house in winter, and a cool house in summer and ignore the impact on the environment. The Brumby government is critically dependent on a few country seats so nothing will be done to upset the voters around Portland or the Latrobe Valley.

The other overworked statement is sustainable. This mantra like clean coal is repeated over and redeemed. Sustainable means to be able to be operated in perpetuity. In no way is burning coal sustainable but if you say it often enough the label sticks.

The Dual Gas project is interesting. Is only a pilot plant which if it achieves its stated aim will generate electricity from brown coal with a similar efficiency to black coal to offset the 40% disadvantage currently suffered by brown coal.

OOPS

BrumbyGovt apologises for not giving a link in the previous post. The Craigslist advertisement can be accessed at http://tinyurl.com/yhglhjt.

“We hope this does not affect potential sales of brown coal,” said a spokesperson for the Department of Embarrassing Cock Ups.

NEW PRIVATE-PUBLIC PARTNERSHIP WITH CLASSIFIEDS COMPANY

BrumbyGovt is pleased to announce a new Private Public Partnership (PPP) to replace the previous deal with eBay.

Interested parties can now negotiate to buy Victoria’s 13 billion tonnes of unallocated brown coal through a Craigslist advertisement.

A coal industry crony says the government remains committed to exporting brown coal – despite the environmental consequences.

“No amount of public disapproval or common sense will deter us from cashing in on this fossil fuel while we can,” the crony said.

Victorian brown coal is also available for private sale. Email buybrowncoal@gmail.com for enquiries.

http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/9260/browncoal.jpg