Comments on: Triguboff, Keane talking fiction on house prices

By: Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 02:27:40 +0000

((((Lots of leftie-style ‘banks/govt/multis’ conspiracy stuff here. Why not include the CIA? Also a touch of racism re immigration levels. ))))

BakerBoy is trying to profile me…write me off as one of those conspiracy nuts.

When someone calls you a racist on the basis of critisism toward immigration levels, then it’s time to not take them seriously.

Can we reach 20.

By: james mcdonald

james mcdonald — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 10:00:31 +0000

A friend of mine lost his job in a round of retrenchments last week. The company had got through the last year on existing deals but no new deals to be found. They say it’s a “delayed effect of the GFC”. Here we go …

By: Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 09:22:22 +0000

Aggh James Hi ya..Yes, they get what they crave…but who got them hooked in the first place?

Who led them single file to the coming slaughter?…it’s gonna come crashing down mate. i personally believe that we here in Oz have n’t even begun the real recession yet, it just seems to be a suckers paradise in that certain financial mechanisms have managed to delay the impact so far.

that was no stretch the other day when i commented sourses telling me about the log-jam in the industry with properties in the 500K-1,000K range..it’s fact, they can’t move them and there are some very anxious people.

By: james mcdonald

james mcdonald — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 08:40:11 +0000

“Conspiracy” implies secret. There’s nothing secret about it. “Collaboration” would be a better word, with home-owner voters cheering for more.

By: Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 07:46:33 +0000

Oh yes bakerboy, lets not intefere with your sense of Peter Pan reality.

As you probably noticed, this thread has been taken down..so if you wanna really go for it, there is nobody looking…least of all the moderators….so do you want the truth about life.?..or do you wanna believe the lie.

By: bakerboy

bakerboy — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 07:11:13 +0000

Lots of leftie-style ‘banks/govt/multis’ conspiracy stuff here. Why not include the CIA? Also a touch of racism re immigration levels. Gary, there is a natural cycle of about 7 years in housing in Australia not influenced by expensive govt policies, the upward trend is just the result of a growing population and a more affluent society. It will always be so in this country for the foreseeable. Alex

By: Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 01:15:23 +0000

((((Bakerboy you confuse a market maintained by deliberate and expensive policies with one trending upwards due to natural forces or whatever)))))

James: Yes..thats the nutshell.

The contrived, verses the natural market forces…and in this case, tell me that the unholy trinty of Banks/Govt/Multi-Nationals… have not had a Hand in it’s prolonging.

By: Kaz

Kaz — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 00:53:28 +0000

Hi i Sukio Sumora from j apan greetings you

bakerboy he say I think Australians do love their houses more than other countries

In j apan we once do that too but elder japanese say we become nation of worshippers of things of wood and stone culture rike here in aussie
i rike many thing too. i rike horse riding on weekens i rike go to beaches and i rike aussie Guy for dinner but much to learn here in aussie

mY father he work for toyota 50 years he start at age 5 but he not satify w ith
his work effet and lose many sleep

bY from Sukio Sumora

By: Evan Beaver

Evan Beaver — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 00:39:17 +0000

I do love the irony of someone telling Bernard to stick to what he’s good at, while including the amateur’s mistake of using the wrong you’re.

By: Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 00:29:44 +0000

BakerBoy: I am gonna try my hand at some social engineering…why not, everyone else does.

Do you really believe it’s good govt policy to maintain current levels of immigration when we are already battling to effectively house the people that dwell here? And what effect does the current levels of immigration have on employment?…I know these are dumb questions of which we already know the answers, but who’s interest does this serve?

The Govts policy of relaxing foreign ownership rules at a time when it is least needed… is very mysterious.

Chris Cornish: ((((Bernard, stick to politics because that is what you know about, please don’t stray into making comments on the economy, or recently the financial planning industry, because your ignorant on these things and basically don’t know s^&t.))))

It’s a crash course in thinking Left with your heart, but thinking Right with your head..hehehe

By: james mcdonald

james mcdonald — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 23:33:04 +0000

Bakerboy you confuse a market maintained by deliberate and expensive policies with one trending upwards due to natural forces or whatever. A bit like someone saying “water? just turn on your tap, there’s plenty of water”. And I dare say, you also confuse age or lack of it with wisdom or lack of it.

By: Chris Cornish

Chris Cornish — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 14:26:10 +0000

Adam, I have no idea who you are or how old you are either, but I have been reading your comments for a good few years and your insights into the business environment are one of the most anticipated things when I open my crikey email. You truly excel when talking about corporations and the various players in that stratosphere.
I too believe that there is a housing bubble, but maybe we are both wrong. However what I know for fact is that Bernard Keane should not enter into this discussion. Bernard, stick to politics because that is what you know about, please don’t stray into making comments on the economy, or recently the financial planning industry, because your ignorant on these things and basically don’t know s^&t.

By: bakerboy

bakerboy — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 10:37:17 +0000

I don’t know who Adam Schwab is or how old he is but he’s very wrong. I’ve been in and watched the Australian residential housing market for over 40 years. It cycles of course but it has trended upward continuously and will continue to do so. Irrespective of the rate of unemployment and house prices, migrants will always want to come here. We need the bodies and the skills so the government will keep bringing them. Due to poor planning by State governments and local councils, supply of land for housing lags behind demand hence the 40,000 under supply each year. I think Australians do love their houses more than other countries (in Europe, not many own their house) and housing is seen as a good investment for rental. We may see a few people get caught by the coming interest rate rises but it won’t affect the overall market. Adam should sit down with Steve Keen and preach doom and gloom to each other. Alex

By: Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 09:44:18 +0000

(((It’s true some Australians make money from renting or renovating houses, but I don’t think Triguboff means that; he means speculative capital gain.)))

Bingo!!!

According to my sourses, there is a real sales log-jamb in the 500k- 1,000k range of properties purchased at the peak of 2006.

The problem these people have is they are hanging by their teeth waiting for someone to rescue them by asking them to pay way too much for what the property is worth already, on top the asset apreciation level from 2006.

In other words, they paid top dollar at the peak of a cycle in 2006, and now want to quit their debt levels and pocket some change due to an advancing cycle of rate-rises and maybe scale down, but there is no buyers in that range…big problem…unless of course it can be sustained.

Not much chance of that when the FHOG vanishes at the end of the year and at the same time we are entering an upward trend of rate rises…..are there anymore aces left in the pack?

By: james mcdonald

james mcdonald — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 08:41:44 +0000

Triguboff’s most amazing statement is that “Australians have always made money on their properties, and if we want to fight inflation then that is still the best way for them to prosper.”

It’s true some Australians make money from renting or renovating houses, but I don’t think Triguboff means that; he means speculative capital gain.

You don’t “make” money from speculation on existing assets; it has to come from somewhere. That somewhere is out of site and out of mind, but it’s still there. The money comes from the future, in a process similar to capitalized borrowing.

People paying high prices today are actually borrowing to pay off the retirements of their elders. The burden will then pass to kids who as yet have no idea what they’ll be payng for, and to generations not even born yet. It’s a form of future-eating.

By: Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 06:45:25 +0000

I was going to paraphrase, but would have only ended up repeating the whole
article.

Those comments from Triguboff are alarming, but it signals the sociopathic heights
of self interest that he and his ilk will go to, in avoiding the most obvious of
commercial realities…what goes up must come down.. Harry…and what goes down
( interest rates ) must go up.

To give Harry his due, he has been one of Australia’s foremost philanthropists ….but
how can he be so insensitive to curbing the Australian Housing bubble? He of all
people should know economies run in cycles. Does he expect that the RBA should
hold back on rate rises just so his personal empire can flourish for a few more years
at the expense of the rest of us 21.9 million Australians?

Glenn Stevens: Thanks for the tough love.

BK: stick to politics, you are good at “that”.