Comments on: A new NT Government by Friday — the fix is in at 4 o’clock today

By: Bob Gosford

Bob Gosford — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 08:28:31 +0000

indeed!

By: Mark Duffett

Mark Duffett — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 23:05:18 +0000

“certainly the smartest”…maybe that was the problem

By: Bob Gosford

Bob Gosford — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 19:35:24 +0000

A source - who was on the plane Darwin - Alice - saw her wheeled on semi-conscious in April - from memory this was before the start of the Writers Festival - haven’t confirmed that with Carney but have also heard that she was ill from some other quarter…and the NT News (Nick Calacouras?) reported a while ago that she and Burns would not contest the next election…but I agree - a resurgent CLP (?!) would be reluctant to lose Araluen but if the incumbency factor is gone then the seat may be ‘sensitive’…but she may want to hang on for a seat - finally and most likely the most deserving member of all the CLP at the moment - at the big table. How and why they rolled her before the last election is one of the untold stories of NT politics - for mine she was (and most likely still is) the best CLP performer in the house - certainly the smartest…

By: Mark Duffett

Mark Duffett — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 12:49:32 +0000

Surprised to hear about Carney; seems she’s done a lot of hard yards to give it away when the prize (i.e. a seat in Cabinet) may be about to fall into her lap. In any case, it’s hard to see the CLP relinquishing Araluen.

Any thoughts on where independents are likely to spring from? The ranks of the NLC or CLC?

By: Bob Gosford

Bob Gosford — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 11:27:21 +0000

Thanks for your legitimate doubts Mark - I agree that is unlikely that the Greens will actually win a seat this time around - though on results for (from recollection) two seats in Darwin and one in Alice Springs they outpolled Labor. The likelihood of an independent victory in any number of seats is a different matter altogether and is impossible to predict at the moment.
On a quick look at the August 2008 results I think that a number of seats may now be in play - Stuart - where Hampton is vulnerable to a good candidate; Araluen - where Carney will not seek re-election; Brennan - where Chandler sits on a very narrow margin - though will most likely be returned in the current circumstances; Daly - where Knight may have a struggle to get (from memory) a third term; Fannie Bay - where Chandler will most likely fall; MacDonnell - where if you can rely on anything Anderson says/said she won’t seek re-election and the seat will most likely be in play; Nhulunbuy - could be vulnerable if the Yolngu vote swings away from Labor.
That will do for now - any further thoughts?
And of course, as I indicate above - it is long odds on an election being called at all - though I wouldn’t be betting on anything to do with politics in the NT right now.

By: jungarrayi

jungarrayi — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 04:58:02 +0000

I agree with Mark that wins by Greens and Independents are not all that likely. On the other hand they are more likely than ever. Should the NT population suddenly become more numerate and realise that the preferential voting system is ideally suited to put in a protest vote without losing the “value” of said vote, the Greens may well win a few seats. I fear it won’t happen but what I do know is that the remote community voters (that overwhemingly voted for Labor) are terribly dissapointed with Territory Labor… “we voted them in and look at how they’re treating us now….”
The imposition of incompetent Shires, and the destruction of bi-lingual education, and their being in cahoots with the federal Intervention come to mind.
The dissappointment (nay, anger!) with Labor is never expressed as support for the cowboys that ran the NT for so long and invariably played the race card at the many elections they won.

By: Mark Duffett

Mark Duffett — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 04:18:57 +0000

‘Greens and independents could very likely win more than a few seats’? ‘Pull the other one’ is my initial response, especially in the case of the Greens; I don’t think the Territory’s changed that much in the few years since I left.

Let’s say I’m wrong though. So please enlighten me, Bob, who are you talking about, and which seats are they going to win? Or are you just thinking wishfully?