Cheers V.

He’s actually quite a handsome local member isn’t he Venise?

Pardon me while I choke.

I think there’s a lot of nostalgia for the boom of the Howard government in his current popularity. He was never tested by tough circumstances. So far he also hasn’t had to dirty his hands in getting the leadership, with the examination that produces.

Personally I think as leadership material he’s another Andrew Peacock - a lazy lightweight.

He ‘s on record at a Vic Lib fundraiser last year as pointing out that, since the one-term ALP (Scullin’s) Government during the Depression, Australia has had no other one-term government, so he assumed Rudd would most probably get another term. He should also have added that only one other - ALP (Whitlam’s) - lasted only two terms. There being no current indication that Rudd will lose the next election, Costello would have to spend at least another term in Opposition - to please colleagues who failed to support him, or to pressure Howard into resigning. The Howard government, despite its unpopularity & scandals, lasted 4 terms; Hawke-Keating, 5. Besides, even now, voter support for Costello’s underwhelming - and I suspect that at least some of it comes from mischievous people who put him first just to bug old Howard Huggers (I do).

Cossie wanted a job outside politics. Rudd has promised him a job, probably on an International monetary or financial body. probably in Washington, London or on the Continent. His government left a significant surplus - few others (even NeoCon ones) did; that’s Hero Status. Plenty of kudos, great life style, great opportunities for the kids … and payback!

Onya Pete!

1) Yeah, the Libs will still suffer the stigma but with young Pete off out on the side lines ( and distancing himself from Tirnbull , Abbott, Hockey etc) he can make statesman like utterances & thus , perhaps, cleanse himself with the electorate. He will be invisible most of the time but release statements often enough not to let everybody forget & continually reignite the leadership debate ( especially after each Turnbull stuff up, They will be a regular event) while coyly denying any leadership ambitions
2) I agree they are no chance but then the Liberals in WA were dead as a dodo until the “switch” but we agree there should be a bounce at least with Costello as leader
3) Agree
4) Dunno. I guess the Liberal party is the football equivalent of Richmond FC.
5) I was only talking about the next election & walking away a saint. A loss with no significant improvementwould give him the argument that he was drafted too late to make a difference & he stopped a massacre & bought time for talent to be brought on. He would leave becasue he couldn’t see a chance at the next. I agree if he lost two elections then his status would be different.
6) News Ltd will be there in one form or another. It’s a social necessity. Where else will Bolt,the odious toad Akerman & Albrechtsen et al get a job! It’s a sheltered workshop effectively & no doubt will get funding from somewhere. Maybe we should start a national lottery?
7) As to the tobacco industry I agree but it’s a terminal support. Accept the money from the industry that is killing your supporters. Smart move.. Don’t understand the Catch the Fire mob.

Just for the record philosophically & economically ( I made a motza in the Howard years) I’m closer to liberal than Labour. Just can’t stand the way it’s been hijacked by right wing extremists

1. Doubt the Howard stigma on the Liberals will go away for a looooong time but if Costello is parachuted back into Higgins it’ll give him something to do for the next four years unless something better turns up.
2. I doubt the polls will bounce high enough to get the Liberals back in
3. Costello is their best hope until the Liberals Class of 2020 graduates.
4. Has any Liberal Opposition leader lasted longer than one term?
5. Losing the next and subsequent election would make him an epic fail not a saint.
6. Yes, News Limited adore him but will they be around in 2015?
7. I think the tobacco industry will continue to fund the Liberals to the hilt as will the Packers, Murdoch and the Catch the Fire mob.

As to why he would do it.

A couple of thoughts. I’m basing this on the polls showing that the current Liberal leader is unelectable. Pretty much the current numbers & the party faces electoral disatser. I would also guess that the next election will be sooner rather than later so the cycle is within Costello’s age/timeframe

The subsequent election will probably held after there has been some serious economic pain. The current economy is too good to last & there are some structural problems overseas that have yet to hit home.

1) If he gets parachuted in at the last moment then he may well have cleansed himself of the Howard stigma
2) There will be an immediate bounce in the polls
3) It would be their only chance. Carpenter lost an unlosable election to Barnett
4) A respectable loss gives momentum to the next election & a chance. Perhaps an unstable senate & an early subsequent election.This is when he would have a real chance particularly if the economy tanks.
5) If he does lose he can still walk away with the Saint Peter tag intact.
6) Don’t forget he is the preferred candidate of News Ltd
7) Liberal fundraising will be more succesful. If they stay with Turnball he will probably be the only source of funds

What I meant was that the way that the Libs select candidates is just a procedure specific to them; it has no greater meaning to the electoral procedures or how a government is elected. So if they want to parachute Costello in at the last moment, that’s their concern. Though, I suspect there is a minimum period before the election that candidates need to be nailed down.

But on the question of whether or not they would actually do it, I doubt it. The next Liberal leader to go to an election is going to lose it. Why would Costello put his hand up for that?

It’s just my explanation as to why Newspoll would include Costello. He is still a viable candidate.

He gets to run without the hassle of actually doing anything

To get Barnett into the chair they had to dump his replacement who had been preselected for Cottesloe.

It’s very possible.

This way he gets to be leader without having to do anything. He can sit on the sidelines pontificating and building an image without having to face the day to day pressure og having to back his words up.

He gets to be leader without the hassle of going through a fight and is drafted in just before an election when the polls show disater is looming. By appearing as the messiah he gets a chance at winning again a la Barnett, the unwinnable election.

Even if he doesn’t win the election he will improve the vote to give him momentum for the next.
If the party doesn’t call him & they get thumped then it’s a case of I told you so by hius supporters & an even more urgent drafting of him back into the leadereship even if it means a by election

By stepping aside in the interim he gets to distance himself from the Howard years & rebuild his image in different light without the cold hand of Workchoices over his head

Costello is a long way from finished