Australia’s refugee problem has attracted global attention. This from the New York Times.
Banks respond to Crikey’s article
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Bendigo and Adelaide Bank: Will Rayner, Head of Investor Relations, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited, writes: Re. “Bendigo and Adelaide should come clean on MIS” (yesterday, item 26). In response to your article we make the following points…
We would appreciate if these facts could be reported. The politics of the ETS: Margaret Dingle writes: Re. “Whatever happens to the ETS, it represents colossal failure” (yesterday, item 2). I am extremely frustrated by the politics around the emissions trading scheme. I really want Australia to reduce carbon emissions and was pleased when the Government raised the potential reductions to 25% by 2020. I would be happy if this were locked in as a minimum with possibility of increasing it if international agreement were achieved with other countries reducing emissions substantially more. We do need to protect trade exposed industries that are less carbon intensive than their overseas competitors. However, I am opposed to free carbon permits for coal fired power stations. Coal fired power stations are not trade exposed, their competitors being other Australian energy generators, not foreign imports. Industries need to be supported for reducing their carbon emissions per unit of product, by efficiencies or by using less carbon intensive fuel or electricity. I am disappointed in the Greens, who ought to be negotiating with the Government to improve the scheme. They risk making themselves irrelevant, as would happen if the Government made a deal with the Coalition, in which case the scheme would be less beneficial to the environment than if there had been negotiations between the Greens and the Government. I suspect the Greens of trying to force a double dissolution. Rich pollies: David Havyatt writes: Re. Yesterday’s Editorial. In your editorial you pose the hypothetical:
It does make me wonder whether we recall the days before parliamentarians were paid, like the start of the nineteenth century. Do you remember that “pay for parliamentarians” was one of the Chartists six demands, so that ordinary people could be represented? It may be a “rich” parliament but it probably wouldn’t be democratically representative. Do you want a property qualification on voters too now? Chris Dodds writes: So Crikey thinks the rich list is a qualification for Parliament. The conclusion is that Bond, Scase, Elliot, Pratt, Adler and others would raise the standard. I doubt that but then I have a quaint view that parliament is the peoples house and that the rich have too much influence anyway. The reality is that they probably wouldn’t want the public scrutiny that public office affords given the track record of very many senior corporate players that Crikey exposes only too well in your business section. Thomas Flynn, Executive Director, Australians For Constitutional Monarchy, writes: Your editorial on Wednesday is a paean to Malcolm Turnbull. You conclude by saying: “If only we had a parliament dotted with rich listers. Men and women who have achieved something in their lives more concrete than the stacking of party branches and the backstabbing of their colleagues.” If you think that such sea-green innocence — guiltless of such dirty politicking — applies to Malcolm Turnbull, then I have only two words to say to you: Peter King. Israel’s “useful idiots”: Alan Kennedy writes: Re. “Israel’s ‘useful idiots’ in the Australian media” (yesterday, item 21). Julia Gillard’s decision to accept a junket to Israel is perplexing. Isn’t accepting private money to travel what got Joel Fitzgibbon into trouble? A private visit with access tightly controlled. Gillard should not be on such a charade. She should go on a taxpayer funded visit and see the Palestinians as well. The media stooges Sheridan and Bolt are understandable and the copy will be predictable indeed it could be written now and filed later. With the media butt monkeys along it is safe to assume no-one will be asking questions such as when are going to dismantle all the illegal settlements and pull back to the 1967 borders? Do you support the proposed law banning protests against Israel’s Independence Day? Do you support the right of return for Palestinians? Do you think the argument against Iran’s nuclear program would be more credible if you first owned up to having nuclear weapons and then announced you were beginning a phased close down of your nuclear program with the goal of ridding yourself of nuclear weapons? There are of course many questions one would like to ask Hamas but as there will be no access, this will be impossible. Les Heimann writes: Greg Barns somehow postulates that the likes of Andrew Bolt & Co. are “lovers of Israel” because they can no longer be “haters of communism”… or something like that. This article really should be read by all as it demonstrates such a good example of amateurish literary effort and ill disguised motive. Barns, it would seem, is part of the motiveless and uneducated latte clique who have been led by the nose to actually believe, or say they believe, that Israel is the perpetrator of all that is evil in the world — oh, sorry, apart from the US that is. He even has the temerity to invent a phrase (or is it borrowed) “conjectural government” — wow! The reality of course is that without the USA we would all be speaking Japanese and Europe would be uttering German. Barns and his ilk can not abide such a thought of course nor can they accept that Israel actually has the guts to say and do as required to exist. Clearly Barns should research a little more about both the USA and Israel and ask whether in reality it is actually he and his fellow travellers who are the “useful idiots”. The vote gap: Jim Hart writes: Re. “Comitatus: The Australian centre left majority” (yesterday, item 9). Interesting that Possum Comitatus sees the “vote gap” (before and after preferences) as a problem for the coalition. An alternative interpretation is that it is a liability for Labor. The fact that the coalition gets fewer preferences from minor parties suggests that conservative voters are more sure about what they want: their vote goes straight to the coalition and the other numbers are just an electoral formality. The so-called broad centre-left on the other hand are a less committed and more disparate mob. While they may all agree they don’t like the coalition, a fair proportion aren’t that keen on Labor either. So they show this by giving their first vote to minor candidates while putting Labor further down the list but still ahead of the coalition. That kind of vote gap is fine for Labor provided the minor parties remain minor, but it’s a bit of a worry if the numbers get serious. Just ask Lindsay Tanner - it wouldn’t take much for some traditionally deep-red seats like Melbourne to turn as green as Fremantle. Cheers to good health: Peter Wotton writes: Re. “Diary of a Surgeon: welcome to St Anywhere” (Tuesday, item 15). Some years ago, my son was viciously attacked late on a Friday night and subsequently received prompt and professional treatment at RPA Hospital in Sydney. In recognition of the wonderful (and free) attention that he received, I wrote to the hospital thanking them. To my surprise I received a letter back from the head of the Emergency Department thanking me for my letter and commenting that, generally the only letters they received were letters of complaint or abuse. Why does such a small minority of bad outcomes overwhelm the vast majority of good and satisfactory situations? Why have we forgotten to say thanks for a job well done but are quick to complain when the service is not five star? Bank fees: Anne-Marie Kioussis writes: Re. “AFR defends the indefensible on bank fees” (Tuesday, item 23). Thank you for presenting a solid, common sense case against the hubris touted in the AFR in your article.. It is surprising to learn of the VCAT ruling that exception fees were unenforceable and not permissible under common law principles; I am shocked, and dismayed, that this has not been pounced upon by consumer groups and made into a huge issue. Consumers would be far less passive and compliant about paying them if they knew this. They’d also be much more indignant about the way they are enforced. How do you think this can be effectively promulgated to encourage consumer consideration and action? The Monthly: Michael Nolan writes: Georgia Webster’s outrage (yesterday, comments) that Ben Naparstek’s appointment to The Monthly has been discussed with reference to his young age is more than a little overheated. It’s also muddled. Even as she asks why his age should be considered a story, she admits it’s “certainly remarkable”. Yes, it is. But whoever took the editor’s role was destined to be discussed with interest, and, given the nature of Sally Warhaft’s departure, it’s hardly surprising that some would suggest any new appointee would be a puppet to the hands-on owner and Board. To compare questions about Naparstek’s youthful abilities to sexism or racism is faintly ridiculous. At what age are the barriers set in place that Georgia believes Naparstek has broken through? Younger than twenty-five? Exactly twenty-three? Would a 27-year-old have broken barriers? It’s hardly controversial to say that few 23-year-olds would be thought capable of successfully editing one of the nation’s highest-profile journals of politics and culture. Which is to Naparstek’s credit. And now, an unusual degree of attention will be paid to (at least) his first edition — hopefully it doesn’t offend Georgia’s sensitivities when his initial sales figures are particularly high. Green jobs: Roy Ramage, Economic Development Officer, City of Victor Harbor, writes: Re. “Climate change and employment in Australia, what history says” (yesterday, item 11). We now have three new permanent jobs and the possibility of 18 (installers) more — since initiating our www.solarprogram.com.au Solar and wind power at the domestic level are now and necessary. Wake up! I point you to Dr Andrew Blakers Paper (ANU 2002) and his Solarisation Retrofitting Plan. We have adopted it and our numbers, while smaller correspond with his projections. We will now aim for energy independence and the number of jobs it will yield as we eventually move to have our own energy company again. Climate change cage match (now with its own blog): Bruce Graham writes: Re. Ken Lambert (yesterday, comments). So you try to write an informative piece about a complex industry, and some folks just like to make noise. I will guess that Mr Lambert does not sell stuff, or he would know that 25% profit is a lot lower than some supply constrained industries. I wrote that there is about $3000 profit out of a $12,000 dollar (list, retail) system before government subsidies. For 1 KW, the costs are:
The rest of the list price is:
How much of that is profit, depends on business acumen. Most of those business costs disappear if the installer is working on contract during new home construction, as does most of the installation labour. For PV, much of the profits have historically been in the hands of the PV manufacturers. For years there has been rapid global growth in PV manufacture, and long lags before delivery. These are (just like any other industry) signs of supply/demand imbalance. In recent months, demand has fallen off, international prices are falling, and the Australian dollar has risen sharply, but list retail prices in Australia have not moved. Unlike Mr Lambert, I think those 25% margins are a good thing. It is what a growing industry needs to attract people and capital. Tamas Calderwood writes: Adam Rope’s (yesterday, comments) one actual argument (rather than his many appeals to “scientific” authority) is that 1998 had a “specific El Nino event” that distorts the temperature data, so I can’t claim there has been no warming since 1998. OK Adam, I have two points: First, by claiming “El Nino did it” in 1998, you are effectively conceding that natural factors are more important than human CO2. So on this we agree. Second, I have used UAH satellite data and taken an “average” temperature for the decades May 1979 — April 1989, 89’-99’ and 99’-09’, i.e.; the three most recent ten year periods. 1979-89 shows an average monthly temperature anomaly of -0.05C below the 30 year mean, 89-99 is +0.06C and 99-09 is +0.2C. Yes, that’s right — this “warmest decade ever” is 0.25C warmer than the 1980’s and not even 0.15C warmer than the El Nino “distorted” 90’s, all despite a 13% increase in CO2 since 1980. Think it’s possible that’s just natural variability? Alas no - for this we must completely restructure our way of life, “invest” in green-energy boondoggles (see Ken Lambert’s recent comments) and introduce a monster new tax system. I know, I know — but the smart guys have computer models that say we’re doomed! Uh huh, whatever.
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12 Comments
PLEASE stop publishing Tamas Calderwood. He’s made his point. Relegate him back to the cage match and stop punishing the rest of us.
Seconded.
Also please publish extracts from “How To Lie With Statistics” whenever anyone uses the phrase: ‘I have … taken an “average” temperature’ without defining precisely what they mean by “average”.
Thanks Marcus. Don’t suppose you have an actual argument by any chance? Hmm?
Ian - by “average” I mean, um, average. Mathematically that would be the sum of observations divided by the number of observations. Make sense?
Disingenuous beyond utility, Tamas, as well as a bit ad hominem. In fact I think the current colloquial Australian meaning of ‘average’ seems equally appropriate to your post.
So did you add up ALL the observations in the set (any germane clues on what methodology was involved in collecting the dataset to offer?), discovered that they cited a margin of error and used the lowest figures in the range, perhaps? And share the datasets disclaimers with us?
My point is that extracting LCD “snapshots” of any massive set if statistics and then deriving a quick and dirty primary school “average” from it does nobody any favours and is likely to mislead more than illuminate. Let alone usefully inform public policy, for example.
Hey, ho.
Meanwhile, just for fun:
“Definitions of average on the Web:
* approximating the statistical norm or average or expected value; “the average income in New England is below that of the nation”; “of average height for his age”; “the mean annual rainfall”
* lacking special distinction, rank, or status; commonly encountered; “average people”; “the ordinary (or common) man in the street”
* lacking exceptional quality or ability; “a novel of average merit”; “only a fair performance of the sonata”; “in fair health”; “the caliber of the students has gone from mediocre to above average”; “the performance was middling at best”
* amount to or come to an average, without loss or gain; ‘The number of hours I work per work averages out to 40’
* a statistic describing the location of a distribution; ‘it set the norm for American homes’
* around the middle of a scale of evaluation; ‘an orange of average size’; ‘intermediate capacity’; ‘medium bombers’
* achieve or reach on average; ‘He averaged a C’
* (sports) the ratio of successful performances to opportunities
* modal(a): relating to or constituting the most frequent value in a distribution; ‘the modal age at which American novelists reach their peak is 30’
* compute the average of
* an intermediate scale value regarded as normal or usual; ‘he is about average in height’; ‘the snowfall this month is below average’
* median(a): relating to or constituting the middle value of an ordered set of values (or the average of the middle two in a set with an even number of values); ‘the median value of 17, 20, and 36 is 20’; ‘the median income for the year was $15,000’ “
Ian - UAH is thought to be the most accurate data set of global temperatures. I could have used RSS - whichever you want. The data are highly correlated.
I used every monthly data point since 1979. The data go back just over 30 years, but I limited it to three 10-year chunks. I used a simple mean.
I downloaded the data from their website. I then dumped it into excel and performed the calculations. The entire process took abouut 10-15 minutes (including a bit of playing around). It’s really easy. Give it a try
The link to download the UAH data set is here: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2
The first data column is the temperature reading for the world.
And one more point. You call my comment “ad hominem” after you’d seconded a comment telling me to shut up? Seriously?
Bad luck mate. I refuse to shut up on this subject and you can’t make me. You know, democracy, free society and all that. Deal with it.
Just to correct that. Column 1 is the year. Column 2 is the month. Column 3 is the monthly temperature anomaly.
And the simplest way to calculate the arithmetic mean is to use the =average(X:Y) funtion in excel.
Go for it.
Well, now, we could go on like this for some time couldn’t we? What fun.
Except it would be the opposite of what Mr Dabner suggested would be useful.
I intended - as I think is in fact plain from the correspondence - to express that I second his suggestion that this particular dialogue be “reverted” back to the area where it is most appropriate and where sufficient time, detail and space for proper analysis is available to those who give one …
Meanwhile, as an individual who works hard to remain unimpressed by received wisdom, I totally support your right to keep banging on about the lack of conclusive evidence that - to paraphrase - we are all going hell in a handcart if we don’t make some substantial changes to our approach to the heavy-duty risks increasingly-uniformly flagged for us by so many qualified and unqualified “experts” and fervently resisted by many others.
As I am sure others have pointed out to you before, your insistence on conclusive evidence of global warming / cooling or artificial climate variation before shifting our energy demand from profit-driven resource-depletion to harvesting reminds me of the pedestrian who believes that because they have crossed many roads without taking much care successfully in the past they will never encounter a large, heavy object travelling too fast to stop soon enough to protect them.
As for your bollocks about free speech, my endorsement of the suggestion you speak freely elsewhere - in the public forum provided specifically for this sort of shallow tosh (from both sides) - is pretty far from undemocratic. Unless of course you demand the (exclusive?) right to shout whatever you like wherever you like as often as you like while denying others the same prerogative? “Power to the correct people” as the National Lampoon stars once put it a while before they got rich.
Your off-argument introduction of the right to free speech - right or wrong - is plainly self-serving and gratuitous here. And makes me wonder (says he, smugly copying the technique): “Exactly how much in the way of shares, income or career interest in carbon-generating companies or industries do you and your super involve?
You may just be wrong, too. It would be cataclysmic if you are. Deal with it. Uh-huh, uh-huh, uh-huh … Basta.
Ian - Crikey’s editors determine what goes in the comments section and they decline to print my comments occasionally, so I’m not demanding anything. It’s their choice. And I have never told anyone to shutup - I just challenge their arguments. Besides, you can just ignore me if you want.
And no, I have no shares in the oil industry or carbon-genrating companies, although it’s possible some are held indirectly via my super - but I have no idea.. I just work in a normal job and moonlight as a pest on Crikey.
One further pont. Maybe I am wrong. But what if you are wrong and we ‘transform’ our economy because of a problem that doesn’t exist. We will all be poorer as a result. Is that moral? Is that sensible?
That’s why we need to debate it and why I hate the mono-think you get from the media and government on this subject.
Bruce Graham:
Bruce, I do exist in the real world of manufacturing and exporting, engineering and even a little bit of science - so please understand that my reference to the “Flower Children” was pure mischief. My point was simply that by your drawing attention to perhaps $3000 of “Profit” in a $12000 PV power station installed in your home, you might have implied that this profit could somehow be removed and a supply still exist. That may be so for the serious DIY’er who wants to buy the parts direct and put it all together. The ‘retail’ public won’t do that.
Now you seem to be justifing the 25% profit margin as a good thing. Of course its a good thing - prople can’t run business without profit - not even “Flower Children” from Nimbin.
My point is that in a competitive non-monopoly market, the ‘market price’ is around $12000 for a 1kW ‘home power system’. If that is ‘noise’, mate - I, just like Tamas, will continue to make it - loudly!!
Ken Lambert
Ian Nicholson:
“shifting our energy demand from profit-driven resource-depletion to harvesting” - what a crock of ‘s**t’.
Do you think that ‘harvesting’ can exist without harvesters, and harvesters without industries to make them, and industries without filthy ‘profit’?
Business will exist in any climate in a market driven economy. If CO2 warming theory gets a run and Government is the buyer of ‘black hole’ renewables - business with sing from that song sheet to make a dollar.
When the AGW theorists can run their models backwards and duplicate the Holocene with accuracy; when the IPCC explains what happened to the Mann ‘hockeystick’ and where went the Medieval Warming and the Little Ice Age; and when Ian Plimer recants and seeks Jim Hansen’s forgiveness - then I will gladly become a convert to the established religion of CO2 driven warming. Meanwhile, tune in for more heresy from Tamas and yours truly!
Ken Lambert
You two are determined to make as much “noise” as possible, and more power to your right arms as you do so (but do please watch out for the signs of physical or intellectual RSI).
If I had added “profit-driven harvesting” as opposed to “profit-driven depletion” (ie working to ensure a continuing sorce of profit rather than the on-off play-school grab it not share it version), would it have made the concept any easier to accept? No?
Pity … I wonder if the dinosaurs took the same view …
If the human animal cannot exist without exaggerated frights and the madness of crowds, I suggest carbon and carbon dioxide be replaced by fear of a large rock from space.
A 1908 Siberian style wack at a slightly higher entry angle could do the trick.
Dinosaur thought has never been the same since their experience with a similar rock…