Comments on: CFA’s fire advice as useful as a deckchair on the Titanic

By: Xanth

Xanth — Wed, 20 May 2009 01:49:35 +0000

“No-one wants a good chance of survival, they want certain survival.” No such thing. In the context of bushfires: Don’t live in the bush. Particularly in one of the 3 most fire prone places in the world.

By: Frank Campbell

Frank Campbell — Tue, 12 May 2009 00:25:07 +0000

Andrew: you’re quite right that firestorms occur regularly, whether localised or general. Black Saturday was by no mean “unprecedented”, as everyone in authority said repeatedly afterwards.
In the aftermath quite a few people people criticised CFA brigades for leaving or not appearing. It’s not the fault of the troops on the ground: they may have been ordered to another place, or to retreat because the fire was impossible, or were too stretched to be everywhere at once. It’s physically impossible for fire trucks to cover such a fast-moving, wide fire front. People just do not understand the role or capacity of the CFA. The CFA needs to communicate this far better.
As for advice, the evacuation model is tried and tested in California for instance. If residents stay and fight, it’s on their own head. The risk is always there if you live in the bush, so it is incumbent on people to take precautions, such as fire bunkers, fire hoses, sprinklers etc etc. No fire-fighting force could ever stop such fires or rescue everyone.

But there’s no mystery about the spread of the fires on Black Saturday: NW wind, SW wind change in the evening. As usual. So fires head SE, fairly narrow in shape, then the SW wind hits, turning the long NE flank into the head of the fire, which moves NE. Anyone looking at the Weather Bureau’s rain map on that afternoon could see as I did where the smoke plumes were heading. The radar shows the smoke as rain, ironically. So every ten minutes you see the advance of the fires. It was quite clear by mid-afternoon that Kinglake, Marysville etc were going to be clobbered in two or three hours. Ample time to get out, if you knew what to look for.
Now we know from the evidence at yesterday’s Royal Commission hearing that fire behaviour experts were at CFA HQ and had made a map of the fire path early in the afternoon. Rees didn’t know about the map on the day, and I gather he didn’t know these experts were in the same building.

By: Andrew Pengilley

Andrew Pengilley — Mon, 11 May 2009 23:14:56 +0000

I think one reason these events keep getting repeated is that, after the post-mortem and examination of what went wrong, there is really no acceptable advice about how one could have done things better. One way to avoid this problem is not to life cheek-by-jowl with flamable bushland, but people want to and will anyway. The second alternative is to flee when fires approach, but people won’t until they are certain their house is about to combust by which time its too late. The third alternative is to do massive backburning, but there are limited opportunities to do so, limited trained staff to do it, and when its tried people complain about smoke pollution and loss of amenity.

For the CFAs part, they come in at the pointy end of when all the above situations have created a disaster and generally get blamed for the limited scope of mortal powers in the face of natural disaster. Were the warnings too late or confused? Probably. But again, how does one track a fire precisely in real time and communicate with a dispersed population living in secluded bushland? We would need a military-like organisation to do that, and it would need to be funded. So when blame is apportioned, lets actually decide to do something practical or accept that this is really just the cost of living the way we do and being the people we are.

By: flatpackfirebunker

flatpackfirebunker — Mon, 11 May 2009 06:56:49 +0000

I also agree with Frank, sometimes you have no choice about leaving so after the Victorian Bushfires i have researched, specifically designed and Patent a new Flat Pack Fire Bunker. I’m a Structural Enginner with a PHD. Have a look at our site, we have had loads of interest http://www.flatpackfirebunkers.com.au

By: John Bennetts

John Bennetts — Mon, 11 May 2009 06:36:45 +0000

As an active rural firefighter for 20 years plus, I agree absolutely with Frank’s comments. Consider also the role of the firefighter. It is not just the resident who needs a refuge. Any firefighter confronted by a fire must have a viable refuge close at hand, and by this I do not mean a fire truck.

Fire trucks have been proved many times to provide only very limited protection. What is needed is a path to open space and clear air.

Thus, the role of the fire brigade, by whatever name, will never include magical mass rescues in the face of overwhelming odds - that is just suicide.

To conclude: anybody choosing to stay at home in the face of a major fire must have access to a purpose-built shelter and be prepared to face the consequences without need for aid from external forces.

How and when the authorities (probably police) could/should order a mass evacuation is another question, one that will no doubt be argued back and forth in the commission. The findings of this commission will no doubt have relevance and impact across Australia. It is not just for Victoria.

How sad it is that so many lives have been lost or ruined in order to motivate the community to, at last, come to understand the phenomenon of wild fire.