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Is Turnbull’s honeymoon over?
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Newspoll 56-44 2PP to the Government. Rudd leads as preferred Prime Minister by 45 points. Is the honeymoon over? Malcolm Turnbull’s, that is. The one steady factor in recent Newspolls has been the decline in Turnbull’s satisfaction ratings and the increase in his dissatisfaction ratings. Even in December, in the so-called rogue poll that had the Government at 59-41 the weekend after the end-of-sitting debacle with the Nats, far more people were happy with Turnbull’s performance than unhappy. Since then, there’s been a steady drip of punters deciding they don’t like him. Net satisfaction rating — a concept polling types have been using for years — is the new black in mainstream media polling analysis. Even Christopher Pearson, the resident galah of political commentary, blithely discusses Malcolm Turnbull’s declining net satisfaction level. One is loathe to go where preferred Prime Minister, preferred economic manager, preferred national security manager and preferred rock band manager* have all gone before as key predictors of political fortunes. Moreover, the poll was conducted on a seriously bad weekend for the Coalition, after Julia Gillard got her IR bill through over the Opposition’s objections, and Lawrence Springborg found a third way to lose to the Queensland ALP. Nevertheless, Malcolm Turnbull is on a slippery slope and he’s running out of time to get a firm purchase and begin clambering back up. Why running out of time? Because the Liberal Party are an impatient lot. They want back into Government. Not for them the remorseless logic of history that one-term governments are rare as hen’s teeth. Not for them the painful reality that Peter Costello has never been liked by the Australian electorate no matter how popular the Government of which he was a member was. Turnbull needs to change the political dynamic, otherwise he will be slowly sliced to death every fortnight as his numbers slide. And then the mutterings will start. You know how it is. We’ve seen it all before, too many times. Turnbull has to offer something positive. When even Alan Jones complains you’re too negative, it’s time to find a new way of differentiating yourself from the ALP. The Liberals’ post-election policy development process has now been going for well over a year without seeming to bear any fruit. Meantime, Turnbull has almost wilfully played along with the Prime Minister’s simplistic and flawed dichotomy between the Coalition’s neoliberalism and Labor’s moderate centrism. Turnbull might object that he tried to be positive with his green carbon initiative, and it sank without trace. But that’s life in opposition. There’s a template for how to be a successful Opposition leader. It’s Kevin Rudd in 2007, however much that might stick in the Coalition craw. John Howard in 1995 also offers some lessons, but time and the evolution of the media have rendered some of them out of date. The Liberals need to take a hard look at what Labor did right in Opposition and copy it. For example, Rudd countered the problem of ripple-less policy announcements in 2007 by having large set-piece events, such as a housing summit and a climate change summit — at which he could make policy announcements, or more usually announcements about developing a policy at some point in the future. The benefit was that Rudd, rather than producing policies without context, appeared to be engaging in a genuine policy process aimed at a real problem. There was much less chance of such initiatives disappearing without trace. And yes, it helped that he was leading in the polls at the time, but for much of 2007 the political commentariat thought that was simply a honeymoon and the magician Howard would pull off another victory. The other successful element of Rudd’s strategy was to pick what he wanted to differentiate himself from the Howard Government on, but otherwise, tracked his opponent closely. This is traditionally called picking the fights you can win, and has much to recommend it. Criticism of “me-tooism” utterly failed to deter Labor. Turnbull’s strategy seems to be the perfect opposite — oppose everything, and occasionally offer grudging support. Doing that with such a popular government is simply a recipe for permanent opposition. Most of all, Turnbull and his team have to engage in the same sort of lateral thinking, and fast, on the economy and produce some new ideas that demonstrates they’re using their heads rather than reflexively saying no to everything the Government says. Make the Government respond to them, not the other way around. Hell, even hold a summit or two. Otherwise, Peter Costello, a man without courage, capacity for hard work or policy substance, will obtain the leadership having done nothing but destabilise his party since November 2007. And Turnbull, one of the finest minds ever to grace an Australian Parliament, will be lost to public life, before he’s even had a chance to show what he’s capable of. *One of those I just made up — see if you can spot which. |
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26 Comments
I’d encourage the conservatives to install the Member for Higgins ASAP. Turnbull can call a fatal spill and as an MP from Sydney’s lower north shore steps up to the plate the wig from Wentworth resumes his seat alongside Emo Nelson. Months on to the strains of The Way We Were, cheers from the Oz squad and fundamentalist spark-tossing Christians the spotlight turns to Costello still slouched in the bleechers. “Nah I like where I am. I’m here as your conscience, all I needed was your love to bring out the best in me …not your desperation”. Then the electorate of Higgins votes Costello out so Turnbull does a Lazarus with a double by-pass careful not to tarnish John Howard’s place in the political pantheon. It’s just how they do things in neoconservative circles
Venise I love your horse story particularly because I had an 18 hand horse when I was younger. I had learnt to leap on to him when running along side (I am only 5’8”).
I was going to lie and claim his name was ‘Lawn Mower’ but I will leave such to the expertise of the Judiciary and confess it was ‘Little John’.
Peter Costello, Iraq war, global recession.
JamesK: You’re losing your grip. Once, you would have understood why many of us dislike PC. You wouldn’t have liked it, but you would have understood the reasons.
Cheers
Venise
No. Malcolm Turnbull’s talents aren’t working right now despite his legal and corporate pedigree, support from the big end of town including a right wing media and mega-doses of logic. The dedicated, sober, iron-fisted stuff he used in other lives isn’t engaging with the electorate or his peers still fully sick of Howard’s menace. He’s a lone player averse to congenial communication and beaming smiles, he engages with Costello by not calling the hump from Higgins bluff and he fumbles the policy ball thrown by the government too many times.
Despite all that he’s the best candidate on the Opposition bench and whilst the oh-so-very-ordinary MPs sitting behind him refuse to acknowledge the merits of the man he’ll be back there with them. You’d think images of Costello sermonising at the dispatch box and certain election defeat would engender support for Malcolm – unless of course they’re on the same page as the Queensland LNP.
It is impossible to roll over and over, like one of those old-fashioned lawn mowers. I loathe Peter Costello; I wanted Malcolm Turnbull to succeed, if for no other reason than because the born to rule mob have reached the state of despair that arrives when your eighteen- hand horse, who has just thrown you is carefully cropping grass about fifteen metres away, and you both know you’re going to be in deep shit trying to get back on him-they the BTR mob happily jettisoned their previous jockey who lasted for about half the length of the paddock. Desperate to get out of the mire they put up a financial wiz but forgot to tell him how to ride.
Meanwhile, back in the mounting yard they’ve latched onto the man who rode the four horses of the Apocalypse. He’s tall, so far up himself as to be inside out, really does think he’s God’s gift to a horse called The Liberal Party and a donkey called The Nationalist Party (in some states and Country Party in other states).
He has tried riding horses before, but was too lacking in energy to be a good rider. He will of course, destroy the horse called the Liberal Party, but he was old, and headed for the knackery anyway.
You are very kind to your subject and bias free (bf by bk) (the ABC will fall in love with you).
The intelligence attribute (blessed as it is) may become damaged as a whole by that department of it that we may put to intense use in merchant banking.
You are doing all of his quality thinking for him here today.
If there are medals/prizes for intellect in politics then you will win them before he does.
We use the former Treasurer as a benchmark of bad behaviour here. Our beligerent son’s been given an ultimatum - if you’re going to crack a Costello you find somewhere else to live.
Bernard, I do agree with most of what you write, but…
[*One of those I just made up — see if you can spot which.]
I believe it was this one: “And Turnbull, one of the finest minds ever to grace an Australian Parliament…”
You are joking surely. What about the man shows a ‘fine mind’ as a political leader, apart from his success as a barrister and association with Goldman Sachs.
What is your criteria for making that definition?
Is Turnbull really that smart? I’ve never seen it myself. Maybe that’s a problem for them to examine?
I’m torn between happiness and hopelessness with the current opposition. Firstly I hated the old regime unreservedly, and seeing them squirm uselessly in opposition really warms my heart. On the flipside though, we’re all being ripped off because they’re not offering a decent alternative.
So what to do? As stated, Rudd did a good job of grabbing the agenda when he took control. But what issue can the Libs grab hold of to regain the initiative? I doubt it will be climate change. They struggled with economics and finance early this year, the traditional strongsuit.
What odds a Labor win at the next polls? I want to put a couple of hundred on it now.
Preferred rock band manager sounds bogus although the guitar-strumming Nelson in jeans sporting the diamond ear studd could have attracted Liberal votes in Bradfield. After bikies defeated the AFP at Sydney Airport in round one of the comp I guess national security manager will be atleast on the agenda. So lock it in Bernard - rock band management?
I like horses, but having seen Equus not any more (was it really necessary to get that Harry Potter actor’s wiggly out?)
Back on topic, frankly I’m bemused. Basically Rudd can do no wrong (despite obviously being the most inept PM ever). Turnball can do no right.
Finally pick which one is true a) Bernard is the finest Journo to grace Canberra ever or b) Bernard has had a well deserved kick in the bottom and has learnt (albeit the hard way) to moderate his fanaticism.
PS I loved it when that idiot Rudd boasted “we have a rock star and a media personality” (and very little else)
My instinct is that Costello will never gain sufficient electoral popularity to win an election unless he can change quite a few of his spots. I’d have felt the same way about Howard right up until he took the reigns in 1995, when he clearly started to have a bigger impact than he’d previously managed. As things currently stand, I still believe Turnbull has a better chance of connecting with voters than Costello, although he needs to be less captive to the media and start driving an agenda. All of that said, my record of predicting election results is pretty abysmal.
Groundhog Day - not the Liberal leadership but your regular contributor, the detention camp guard Marilyn. Every issue in Crikey is turned into some antisemitic pogrom. Australia lose to South Africa- it’s the Jews fault; Climate Change - it’s a Tel Aviv secret plot; Turnbull sagging in the polls … get this folks, it’s cause he’s pro Israel! Hey Marilyn, how do you explain Rudd’s 65% then? Let me guess, Mossad rigged the Newspoll.
Check out the article on Faulkner and FOI, I’m sure there’s an IDF = thug angle there Marilyn, and the Degas exhibition, talk about pro Zionist artwork. Phew, the bloke just reaks of West Bank impressionism….
BK said: “They want back into Government. Not for them the remorseless logic of history that one-term governments are rare as hen’s teeth. Not for them the painful reality that Peter Costello has never been liked by the Australian electorate no matter how popular the Government of which he was a member was.”
On the first point, it also seems to be Malcolm Turnbull’s strength and weakness, ie. his impatience. He should not have pushed to replace Brendan Nelson so early. But like the fox/lion says in the parable, it is in his nature; pushing impatiently at the barriers has mostly worked for him in his life so it seems he knows no other way. The Liberal party is its own victim and it needs leadership to bring it back to the centre and to forget the dead core (where else will it turn?). It seemed that Turnbull could be that man but it has not happened and now seems more and more unlikely as time goes on.
On the Costello issue, it is not simply that he was never polling well (that might have changed if he challenged Howard and won or did a Keating) but that since losing government his performance has been abominable. The smirk and sarky wit that may have been –to some—admirable during feisty Question Time, has become a gigantic liability—especially since it has turned bitter and selfish — even to those predisposed to give him the benefit of the doubt. His day has come and gone, and if the party turn to him they will be in even greater disarray for years to come.
People have long memories. Turnbull was gung ho for the republic, stated that Howard had broken the heart of Australia by killing it off and then Turnbull joined Howard.
As soon as he became opposition leader he said we can’t have a republic until the good queen Betty dies which was not a problem for him 10 years ago.
He has no principles, no policy, no plan beyond being PM one day and no-one including himself knows what he even believes in or stands for.
He always sounds belligerent and if he is making a speech he sounds like a self serving flowery prat.
And his utter adherence to all things jewish and Israel revolts many fair minded human beings who believe that Israel is a thug state who should be charged with the vast amounts of war crimes they have committed.
I just love the incessantly displayed griping fear within those that carp on about one Peter Costello as they seek to cut off their nose to spite their face by abolishing wealth creation strategies in favor of wealth redistribution cunning.
I usually start filling in the ballot paper from least preferred to most. If Costello is the opposition leader when the next election comes along, the Coalition will get the least preferred spot (usually reserved for the nutters and religious fundies. But I repeat myself)
Venise, do you dream of being the gaucho horsewhipping the Liberal Party nag to the knackery?
Are your leftist blinkers causing you to overlook your local member’s stallion for Malcolm’s gelding?
Is Bernard is just horse trading the Rudd jackass?
Tom, to paraphrase Billy Joel: Big Pete didn’t start the fire….But he did try to fight it
Malcolm Turnbull just isn’t PM material. He has no qualities of vision or leadership - on any issue.
He is a combative barrister. His experience is in arguing and disputing minute and technical details, which IMO is an apt description of his political performance so far.
Malcopop should just go back to doing what he does well - being a Barrister.
Turnbull, one of the finest minds ever to grace an Australian Parliament……really!!!!!!!! That is your little jocular for the day BK I presume? His only offering in his boring, repetitive speeches these days is to regurgitate the, ‘Rudd failed to deliver on the economic package promises’ theme over and bloody over and over again. Every time he opens his yapper, out it pours again, ‘went to soon’ and ‘gave away too much’ and ‘frightened the business community’ and ‘unemployment is up’ etc etc. This mornings comments from Myers boss that the second package has already shown a dramatic increase in sales should be required reading for Turnbull as he doesnt want to hear such good news.The man is devoid of anything that is new and different just keeps up the critical banter, negative political claptrap. Its no wonder his rating is 20 compared to the PM’s 64. The sooner the Libs have the intestinal fortitude to cast the Nats adrift and stand up as a Party in their own right perhaps the voters will give them a little more attention. At the moment having idiots like Barnaby Joyce in the Senate and the Nats leader in the House of Reps Warren Truss(nice bloke but completely ineffective) is doing the Libs no favours, look at what happened in Queensland. Today In Washington Kevin Rudd will have a spring in his step as he prepares to meet President Obama, he has already received generous praise from leading Washington financiers and the poll results this morning will ensure he is in the best frame of mind to take talk with the Pres. He hasn’t put a foot wrong during previous overseas trips and this one will sure up his and Labors ever increasing popularity. Then of course keeping the flag flying is the ever popular Julie Gillard, its going to be a long long encampment on the Opposition benches for the Libs, who knows what will be found when the cobwebs are blown away several years from now? Perhaps son of Costello!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Marilyn has articulated her rather thoroughly thought through feminine perceptions very well.
For those of us who would think of Palestinians in such a degraded human way as the Israeli’s forcibly demonstrate to all us innocent Australians is the correct perception to entertain so relentlessly it is pointless to even discuss anti-Semitic concepts. Anti-Semitism is the #1 law against humanity (by being against Jews in some way or another supposedly) as far as Israel is concerned in any circumstances at all and it has the right to overbearingly prosecute anyone it considers guilty anywhere anyhow anytime at whatever cost to whoever. Even to argue that any particular charge of it may if seriously considered not be Anti-Semitism is Anti-Semitism. They say you can’t win against the hyper-sensitive when they don’t understand hyper-sensitivity.
My Father was thrown into a concentration camp or two also.
Are they trying to discover which of us are die-hard supporters, at any cost, by going out of their way to bring it on with all their might to the max? Not a smart game.
“He has no principles, no policy, no plan beyond being PM one day and no-one including himself knows what he even believes in or stands for.” You can be sure that he will attempt to take over the Coalition late enough before the next election so there will be little chance of anyone finding out. The longer he holds the reins as opposition leader, the barer the cupboard will be.
Not sure about satisfaction ratings but i can tell you that on the OMP Trust Index for politicians (OTI). The net scores for the big four are Rudd +24, Gillard +15 compared with Turnbull -24 and Costello -19.
The rest you can raffle but clearly more than personalities are at play here. The Libs have lost their way and a complete rethink is required. The main thing I see happening is the public haven’t been able to get their head around the crises being assembled week by week and so are unable to weigh up positives and negatives with any certainty at all. That is exactly how politicians like it. It took five go’s to work out that the fish was off with Howard. So far so good for the Labor team. If the public remain this confused they could be in for a long time.
Wow what an instinctually vivid and revealing character assessment of Malcolm Turnbull by PedroWilsoni.
Thanks for that Pedro! So much more penetrating than Bernard Keane’s pathetic donkeywork* and I feel sure that Malcolm, who reads Bernard Keane avidly, will be suitably crushed.
Mind you, although Malcolm is not as ostentatiously friable he would be more likely than the assine* Rudd to acquire the cicerone insight that “any man can make mistakes, but only an idiot persists in his error”………..
and apply it to himself.
*One of those I just made up — see if you can spot which.