Comments on: Despite what you read, the Qld polls were spot on

By: hippiesparx

hippiesparx — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

Journos aren’t particularly good at English either. If they were, sub-editors would be out of a job. The best thing about a Crikey subscription is that you see some very snakey journo v journo bitchin’. Gotta love that. Pity they don’t do it live, in a scorpion pit. The rest of us could get on with our lives once they’d killed each other off.
Maybe I should’ve posted this in the Pauline photo thread. Even more relevant there.

By: Andrew Thompson

Andrew Thompson — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

Where are the retractions, apologies and mea culpa from Mark Bahnisch and Andrew Crook today? Look at their stories for the last few days of the campaign. Basnich even had the audacity to perform a post mortem ("Borg can't be sold to Brisbane, nor Bligh to Howard's battlers" crikey, Friday 20 March).

And today? Silence. Crikey, you've become just like the rest of them. Arrogant, out of touch and unable to own up to your mistakes.

I've just been invited to renew my subscription. You really have to be kidding.

By: PeterC

PeterC — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

Possum's comments are right on the mark, as are Frank's, Dave's, hippiesparx', & Gavin's. I couldn't imagine a better explanation of why journos in the "MSM" (as Possum defines it, not Mad Scurrillous Media as I first misinterpreted it to mean) are held in such slight regard.

I've long wondered why journos in print, radio, & especially TV "news" on commercial channels, hyperventilate about meaningless differences in poll results; plainly wrong interpretations are almost always the ones widely publicised. It is quite annoying those like me who have even a slight acquaintance with the theory & practice of statistics; it must be extremely irritating to professionals in statistics.

And professionals in the English language must feel the same way when confronted with ignorant usage of the language that is so prevalent in all forms of news media.

I get very Grumpy Old Man about both forms of blunder, probably because of my public schooling in the '50s & '60s.

By: Dave Liberts

Dave Liberts — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

Journos just don’t get statistics (or mathematics, or any other science, or much economics, or quite often history).

By: JamesK'

JamesK' — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

It’s frankly disappointing to see that 42.7% vs. 41.1% primary vote translates to a estimated 15 seat majority in a 89 member Parliament.

By: Dave Liberts

Dave Liberts — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

JamesK - statewide primary vote stats are pretty meaningless things. Even on a seat-by-seat basis, primary votes are only part of the tale in a preferential system, even an optional preferential system as runs in Queensland. Primary votes are the be-all-and-end-all in a first past the post system, which elects the most popular party, but a preferential system (which is a better system in my view) theoretically elects the least unpopular party. In any case, statewide popularity (or nationwide popularity at Federal level) doesn’t guarantee government - http://www.australianpolitics.com/elections/two-party/2-party-preferred.shtml

By: Frank Birchall

Frank Birchall — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

Fair enough Possum, but it would have been nice to have seen this useful analysis before the poll, especially in light of the media reporting. Moreover, I heard numerous experts interviewed on radio and not one predicted an ALP victory; it was all along the lines of an LNP win or hung parliament. I have to say that, with a margin of error like Galaxy’s, just about any halfway feasible result would superficially vindicate the poll. To my mind that renders the poll virtually meaningless. (The Monte Carlo analysis is particularly good.)

By: Gavin Moodie

Gavin Moodie — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

Surely the mainstream media beat up the LNP’s chances of winning to add interest to the contest and thus attract sales, and in News Corp’s case, to contribute to whatever political agenda it happens to be running currently.