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Fielding the last man standing in stimulus fest
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It’s hard to get excited about the unfolding drama of the Senate’s consideration of the stimulus package. Maybe it’s the bushfires, which have put such matters firmly in context. Or perhaps it’s the suspicion that the minor parties won’t ultimately stand in the way of the package. Most media coverage is based on the idea that it is a problem for the Government if the package doesn’t pass, which misses the real point that it is in fact a major problem for the Coalition and whichever minor party senators do not vote for it. As of this morning it seemed the Greens were having a better time of negotiations with the Government than Xenophon or Fielding. Brown told the Senate a short time ago that he was close to agreement with the Government and expected to emerge with an agreement and amendments within the hour. The Greens have a clear agenda of detailed proposals: mitigating the effect of the liquid asset requirements of the Newstart allowance; allowing low income earners with no net tax liability to receive the bonus payments, and allowing local councils to re-apply for access to the expanded (from $50m to $550m) Local Community Infrastructure fund made available after the Local Government summit last year, which would not actually cost anything. They’re also seeking emergency funding for the Lower Lakes and Coorong. Xenophon, who has circulated an amendment establishing a Murray-Darling fund that would bring forward separate money from the Government’s buyback fund, indicated he wasn’t quite so close to agreement and said he wanted to meet the Treasurer again. The Government has already told him it won’t support his MDB amendment. As for Steve Fielding, well, who knows. That said, the more likely scenario is that the package will be voted through, although in the words of one adviser, it will “go down to the wire.” The Government will make some concessions to the Greens, and perhaps to Nick Xenophon on the MDB. They will vote for the package, not because they’re especially happy with what the Government has offered, but because they know some sort of package needs to be passed. Steve Fielding will also vote for it, not because he’s happy with anything the Government has offered, but because he’s too scared of the consequences of blocking it. We probably haven’t seen the last infuriated rant from Fielding this week. But the only slightly less likely scenario is that one of the Greens, Fielding or Xenophon — more likely the latter two — will vote against it. That will make the Government happy indeed, even if that delight is hidden behind an onslaught of confected outrage. Meantime we wait. Debate — and I use the term loosely — in the Senate drones on. The deadline is still midnight but it may yet be extended. Labor senators haven’t started reading recipes into Hansard yet but it may not be far off. “Settle in for a long day,” Chris Evans told Eric Abetz this morning. Despite suggestions the Government may force a vote, there’ll be no decisive votes until later this afternoon and this evening. The real action, if you can call it that, is in meetings between senators, their staff, Government advisers and senior bureaucrats. It is not a rapid or easy process. If Xenophon or Fielding want significant changes it can take several meetings to develop their proposals, which then have to be analysed and costed by officials. Lindsay Tanner and his Secretary Ian Watt will need to be kept apprised of all revenue and expenditure implications and may object to them. The Prime Minister’s Office will have to sign off on any deals and may kill an agreement because they reckon they see a bigger picture. If a deal is hammered out, the drafters at the Office of Parliamentary Counsel will be on standby to prepare the necessary amendments either to the bills in question or to other legislation. A major change to the package might even require a Cabinet meeting. And all that assumes a senator doesn’t change their mind, which has been known to happen. I’ve seen politicians demand amendments as a critical part of the price for their support, then denounce the same amendments in public. It also assumes the Government is prepared to bend over backwards to get the package through, and it’s not at all clear that it is. |
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19 Comments
Water and the Murray is THE issue here in SA. Xenophon knows what he is doing.
Xenophon’s stand is caught up in his attempt to claim the MDB issue off the Greens in SA. There’s an interesting little battle between Xenophon and Sarah Hanson-Young on this which the latter has been winning thus far. Tomorrow will be Xenophon’s chance to earn priceless publicity as the bloke who saved the Murray-Darling. A Xenophon stunt on a truly grand scale.
We’ve given Turnbull and the conservatives a serve about grandstanding on the stimulus package so why not Nick Xenophon with his identical political posturing. The guy’s screaming for a life term in the Senate by seducing votes from save the Murray-Darling devotees most of whom are evaporating Nationals, defunct Democrats and the bordering-on-extinct Qld Liberals. Which makes you wonder how important the Murray Darling is to the others. How come the Greens, Liberals and Fielding wimped on the so-called food-bowl of the nation. You wonder if any issue political parties raise is worth a glance.
Xenophon has executed one of the best political PR stunts ever. Shame the Liberals couldn’t notch that one under their belts - they badly need something out of this stimulating exercise.
Xenophon voted to return tomorrow. Once he and Fielding had made clear they supported trying again tomorrow, the Coalition said ‘uncle’ and they’ll kick off at 9. Presumably the Government will be trying tonight to cobble together some more money for the MDB that doesn’t involve a $6b hit to the budget in 2009-10 but is enough to move Xenophon. If they do, Xenophon will cave because he can hail himself saviour of the Murray-Darling.
Meantime the Greens negotiated a sensible set of quite large measures which will be lost in the reporting because of the size of the overall package.
Fielding appeared to get nothing but voted with it anyway.
Just imagine the pressure that will be directed on either Xeno or Fielding if the legislation does not pass.
Most of this pressure will come from the Coalition as a Double Dissolution is not what they want to deal with right now. See the trends of likel;y voter support.
As for being a very short term senator, is it likely that either Xeno of Fielding will say NAY twice to this legislation and so force an election that would either sweep them from office or a position of having any ongoing relevance.
First to say, I have lodged 3 painfully complex tax returns as a sole trader (tax return, supplementary tax return, schedule of business and professional items, x 3) for 05-06, 06-07, and 070-08 partly out of shame but mainly on the intuition the income is so derisory there is no tax owing. And also partly to see if I will get some stimulus to pay for my moving costs as the landlord renovates my bolt hole to grasp more filthy lucre.
Secondy to say I like Bernard Keane adding instructive info items along the string as an update past the deadline for publishing. It’s both interesting and realistic of this wonderful intertubes duvalacky tool for modern living. Go the fifth estate.
Fielding will support the package, it seems, on the basis that it’s the lesser of two evils (the Gov’t position and the Coalition position).
“It’s hard to get excited about the unfolding drama of the Senate’s consideration of the stimulus package. Maybe it’s the bushfires, …. ” Perhaps it is hard to get excited when your expectations proved so wrong! X has has turned the pursuit of popular issues into a nice career.
Xenophon is going to really feel the blowtorch over the next 24 hours. Further concessions or not I expect he will vote yes when the bills are re-presented tomorrow.
Fielding caved in under the pressure, so much for his principals, weak kneed spineless idiot, definite mate of P Costello. Xenophone voted against, hope the Government include him in the barrage and Rudd gets stuck in. As for Turnbull, a double dissolution will just about see him off. They have only themselves to blame, the slide into oblivion of the Libs goes into another gear.
So nowwe move to phase 2.
Xeno has voted NAY.
How long will it be until the same legislation is presented to the Senate?
How will the Coalition deal with the possibility of a Double Dissolution in 2009 ?
How will Xeno confront a possible move to the Unemployed queue ?
Nick and Steve are pissing me off big time. Let the Xenophobe stick to pokies legislation and Fielding to the stuff Catch the Fire ministries carry on about. The only trouble with a double dissolution is that no one will get anything for months.
BTW, Rudd is in a better position than Whitlam in 1974. While Rudd puts bushfire support in the orbit of the stimulus package, the Libs will lose seats, Feilding will join the dole queue he should always have been in, and even SA will feel that the Xenophobe has overstepped his mandate.
Still, the Gov. resubmitting the legislation may mollify those media tart cross-benches.
Update as at 2-45pm EDT… Xenophone has made it very clear that he will not support the package following Sen Sherry indicating the Govt will not give him the Murray/Darling amendment. There are quiet rumblings about a double dissolution down the track and it now appears if the Coalition want to save face they will encourage Xeno and the dumber and dumb Fielding to support the bills and allow them to proceed while they dont have to. Good ole Bobby Brown, he got most of what the Greens wanted and stuck it up the rest of them on the cross benches by thanking the Govt for their courtesy to him during discussions. Xenophone is acting like a spoilt brat, its now lose lose for him and Fielding. Wonder where the smiles are?
What are the Greens on about? Call me naive, but I would thought that a ‘Green’ party, faced with a once-in-a-generation opportunity to directly influence major public expenditure, would be looking for those funds to go towards similarly major environmental, renewable energy and public transport infrastructure projects. But no, topping their agenda is wealth redistribution towards lower income earners, with emergency assistance to the Murray estuary tacked on the end.
It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that there’s more than a little truth to the ‘watermelon’ jibe, that the Greens remain the same old usual far-left fringe dweller suspects, cloaked under a green skin for more general palatability. On the face of it, Nick Xenophon has a greener agenda than the Greens.
The sooner this homophobic little geek isn’t leaching my taxes the better.
@David
The 1974 Double Dissolution election reduced Gough Whitlam’s majority and the electorate refused to back him in 1975. I don’t think Kevin Rudd can risk doing the same. He might do better to unclench his fist.
Xenophon has just told the Senate he won’t support the package at this stage but remains open to further negotiations. Apparently it is critical that the package supports the MDB because it’s “our foodbowl”.
Plenty of time yet.
The ABC is reporting that Xenophon may be the biggest potential obstacle. Senator Nick Sherry indicated that things are going nicely with Brown and that Fielding is likely to be bought off with small concessions towards his concerns. Xenophon’s Murray/Darling amendment however will be opposed and it appears that the government may be relying on Xenophon’s general disposition to support the package to get it through. Xenophon is hinting that he might yet block the package if he doesn’t get what he wants but he sounded very unconvincing. When it comes to the crunch my bet is that he will back it.