Neither flood nor fire can stay Shanahan’s delusions
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The events of the weekend rather put the political shenanigans of last week in their proper context. It seems obscene to focus on politics at a time like this, and if it was business as usual it would be. Dismayingly, there’s another, longer-term national crisis looming that must be addressed as well. Despite the fierce debate over the stimulus package, however, normal politics has been suspended for the day. There’ll be no Question Time, which has been replaced with condolence motions for the victims of both the fires and floods. Fires and floods. It seems a mockery to write that, but there it is. The Senate inquiries into the stimulus have also been put on hold for the moment. And the Prime Minister, appropriately, remains in Victoria. He looked this morning like he’d been kicked in the guts, and probably felt exactly that. The Coalition’s position on the stimulus package seems to have had the anticipated effect on its polling, at least according to Newspoll — the ALP up, the Coalition and Turnbull down. I was inclined to the view that it would be more of a slow burn effect, as voters comprehended the magnitude of the economic crisis unfolding and began to realise that failing to do anything — even if it isn’t enough — is the height of folly. I even wondered for a moment whether I’d missed something obvious that meant two and two didn’t equal four, but instead equalled a wholly different number suggestive of some sort of political brilliance on the part of Malcolm Turnbull. But no. The numbers are similar to the ALP’s position at the end of last year after the late-night Senate debacle, which plenty of people dismissed as a rogue poll. Well, it ain’t a rogue no more. Not that that has discouraged Dennis Shanahan, who boldly declared on Saturday that Turnbull had wrongfooted Rudd with his opposition. Shanahan’s right, in the sense that if your opponent insists on inflicting grievous damage on themselves of their own volition, then you might wonder what on earth is going on. But quite what advantage it affords the Coalition isn’t clear. Rudd would be happy to have two left feet if wrongfooting earned such polling numbers. Shanahan persisted today, declaring Turnbull satisfied with having correctly predicted a battering (genius!) and claiming to divine “undercurrents of doubt” about the Government’s proposed debt levels. The “undercurrents” turned out to be among Liberal voters and the elderly — ie rusted-on conservatives. You’d think they’d have tsunamis of doubt about a Labor spendathon, but what do I know. Moreover, Shanahan said, “there is no clear message that most of the $12 billion in giveaways is going to be spent fast.” This was demolished by Newspoll’s own Martin O’Shannessy, who told ABC NewsRadio that the numbers showed most of the people surveyed intending to spend most or all of the handouts. Look out Glenn Milne, there’s a new delusional in town, and he’s packing some heavy-duty pharmaceuticals. There is some logic, however, to the argument that Turnbull has “energised the base” of his party with his decision. Undoubtedly diehard conservatives, either because they believe no level of public debt is ever justified, or they think government is always the problem, not the solution, or just because, like Warwick McKibbin, they don’t believe there’s a crisis, hate the Government’s stimulus package, and will enthusiastically support Turnbull. There are some complicating factors, however. Turnbull’s own proposals for a stimulus package aren’t much shy of the same level of debt, again showing just how little difference there is between the major parties on this supposedly vast ideological issue. Moreover, whether it has “energised the base” depends on where you stand. When John Howard did this sort of thing to Labor, it was called “wedging” and hailed as a masterstroke, leaving Labor caught between the natural instincts of its supporters, and political reality. As it happens, Rudd didn’t even try to wedge Turnbull. Turnbull accomplished it all by himself. Most fundamentally, however, we’re now nearing the middle of the Government’s first term, and the Liberal Party is still trying to fix its base up. This is a bad state to be in at this stage of the electoral cycle. As the disaster of Brendan Nelson’s leadership unfolded last year, Coalition MPs were worrying that he was eroding the party’s base — the people the party relies on for feet on the ground, campaign donkey work and donations. Nearly twelve months on, and Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t seem to be in too dissimilar a position. The party’s polling is just as bad, and its leader is busy focussing on fixing the party base. Unfortunately your base is a necessary but entirely insufficient condition of electoral success. It hasn’t been a good couple of days for Turnbull. Josh Gordon busted him for having received a $50,000 donation from a US investment bank associated with predatory lending practices. Umberto Eco in Foucault’s Pendulum spins a splendid yarn of some publishers who for their amusement devise their own vast conspiracy theory, only to discover that it’s actually true. In similar fashion, Kevin Rudd, for his own purposes, devised an elaborate explanation for why Malcolm Turnbull is part of the vast neo-liberal conspiracy that has brought the world economy to its knees. This initially looked nonsensical, but, disconcertingly, Turnbull keeps producing evidence that supports it. |
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14 Comments
wBernard, you must knowpoliiticians and understand politics well enough to understand what Turnbull is doing. And isn’t it significant that he apparently has the party room behind him. While parliamentary parties, isolated in Canberra, can go mad together (think of the Latham experiment) and there are a lot Liberals too young to know that Keynes was not only a genius but a pragmatist who would have been exactly the right man to have advising them now, they will clearly have seen that Turnbull is taking a cheap wager. No one will remember much in a year’s time about what was said, but it is clear that there will be a lot of people who do not believe that their dire financial condition has been alleviated by anything the government has done. Who is going to be grabbed by the government’;s wasting its media time lambasting the Opposition for opposing the current stimulus package (which will have been enacted anyway)? It will sound as though the government is desperate to counter the Opposition’s charge that the government sshould have followed Oppostiion advice in this, that, and the other way. “The fact remains that under a Liberal government whichhad paid off Labor debt we had 4.1 per cent unemployment and a budget surplus. From the start the government got it wrong. Just as we said the RBA’s cash rate should not go up the government said it should just four months befire a desperate rush to cut rates started….”
Rudd blew his chance to get Turnbull involved in a “War Cabinet” approach and Turnbull is playing a hard and shrewd - though obviously risky - game , to which there is no obvious alternative from a political point of view.
Turnbull’s got all the signs of Liberal pox that victimised his precedessors and sent Costello looking for another gospel. On observation its a fixation with the past however it translates. The old school, well-worn philosophies, game plans and practices from crusty old textbooks whether they work or not dressed up with an air of moral high ground and respectability. And last week as they gathered in the party room I bet the gallery heard the cheer as Turnbull turned to the page and read “blackmail has become respectable”.
The Newspoll figures must be a kick in the guts for Turnbull and the Liberals.
Paul Sheehan’s and Annabel Crabb’s articles in the SMH over the weekend gave me some hope that the electorate were beginning to wake up to Rudd’s chicanery.
I think Australia should be planning an infrastructure spend over 3-4 years with economic development in mind with immediate legislative and practical changes to minimise the difficulties for small business and maximise tax concessions for labour-intensive small business. Across the Tasman, the New Zealand government has brought in a raft of such changes has a cost of less than $500 million.
Ken Henry has made it virtually impossible for Turnbull not to have an “immediate stimulus package” of his own. Henry has already made it clear that this remarkable spend is barely enough! The goals of these short term massive porkbarrelling spends of course is merely to delay Australia entering a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth). Henry disingenuously made that apparent in his responses to questions from the Senate committee. It is absolutely nothing to do with jobs and everything to do with politics - ‘Rudd’ - or perhaps that should that be- ‘Henry’ - style.
To my eyes this is left wing political insanity clothed in undeserved Department of Treasury respectability. This will cost this generation, and the next, mind-boggling wealth deprivation for very little return.
@Quaility not Quantity
Fact, not Fiction
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/02/07/stimulus-package-composition-tax-vs-infrastructure/
I listened to Mr Shanahan speaking about the PM’s rescue package with Andrew Daddo on ABC 702 last week. At that time I had not realised this bloke had previous editorial form on this topic, but immediately thought this bloke is just a Howard/Turnbull apologist who not surprisingly, still bloody well believe that the Libs (and the always forgetten National Party rump) are the ‘natural’ party to manage the economy.
Can anyone remember back to 1973 when the then Silvertail party ‘leader’ Billy Snedden within 6 months of Labor being elected to govt, was considering blocking the supply bills because in his incredible view, ‘the electorate had changed their mind!’ Don’t start me ………………………………..
Hey Ive got a great Idea… We spend 1184 billion dollars in April, thats 100% of our GDP. Therefore we all get $55816 each and we all stave off recession. Has everyone forgotten Whitlam or are we all struck down with selective memory.
Politics deals with OUR money and OUR economy! I will let all the enqiries and all the questions reign, as long as its in the interest of our welfare when these dollars are thrown around.
(I submitted my draft comment!!) Shanahan and co know Turnbull’s got the same Liberal pox that sent his predecessors packing and Costello looking for another gospel. On observation its a fixation with the past however it translates. The old school, well-worn philosophies, game plans and practices from crusty old textbooks whether they work or not dressed up with an air of moral high ground and respectability. And last week as they gathered in the party room I bet the gallery heard the cheer as Turnbull turned to the page and read “blackmail has become respectable”. So the conservative servants in the media went back to sculleries for porridge, treacle and comfort blankets. Nursing the Liberals in the name of democracy is all anyone can do right now.
Taxpayers resent paying for cash handouts to undeserving recipients, whether they be dole bludgers or middle class welfare beneficiaries. Governments raise taxes to spend on public services and public infrastructure. Governments have no right to waste taxpayers’ funds on people who still have jobs, housing, cars, food and clothing. Save our money for pensioners and to cushion the newly unemployed. Spend it on infrastructure and services which will create new jobs, not preserve old jobs which were overabundant, such as retail.
Bernard, you have missed the point entirely. The difference between Turnbull’s stimulus expenditure and Rudd’s stimulus expenditure is a matter of quality, not quantity.
Turnbull’s spend will still be standing there in a generation’s time because it is called infrastructure. It will add to our prosperity.
Rudd’s spend is on consumption. It won’t set us up for a productive future. It will just make us feel a little better for a little longer, but we’ll have wated the money we could have invested in our new economy.
This is only one conspiracy. Whether it is vast, neo-liberal or neo-socialist, it doesnt really matter.
All the players are part of it. Sorry! I am not sure about the independents.
I join Marilyn in extending my sense of loss to the victims, family and friends of the fires in Victoria. Im surprised Shanahan didnt wait for Mondays poll results before leaping into print, extolling the virtues of instant radio and telephone polls as he did. Even with his pathetic knowledge of reading polls (after 2007 one would think he would avoid the subject forever), everything pointed to a boost for Labor and the PM. As it turned out it was a decent boost, so again Shanahan looks a complete dope, his rushing in like a headless chook only confirming what a pathetic journalist he has become. His love affair with the Libs is doing them no good, although deep down he yearns for the ressurection of his idol Cossie. Forget it Shana, the man aint got the guts, you know it, we know it, the whole country knows it, one needs a spine to be able to walk upright. Incidently wonderful article you didnt write in support of the suffering folk in Victoria, your compassion knows no bounds
I didn’t bother to read Shanahan’s rant but he does seem to be on some sort of weird drugs doesn’t he? But wait, Fran Bailey thinks the money should all be spent re-building parts of Victoria even though the 800 or so houses are mostly insured and there are still 100,000 people with nowhere to live.
I fail to understand how Turnbull could come out and flat out reject 20,000 state housing units, repairs to all schools and new building in most of them along with decent insulation for most homes in the land.
As an example of his ignorance - I live in a two story block of double brick flats. On the ground floor with a 3.75 kw. portable aircon. it was 26 degrees inside last Friday while it was 44 degrees outside. That was after 11 days of a heatwave.
Upstairs it was 34 degrees inside with the exact same aircon.
Insulation saves lives and money yet Turnbull thinks it is a waste of time and money.
On that note I want to express my horror at the predictable and predicted fires in Victoria.
I listened with a sick feeling growing until 5 am Sunday to people phoning about relatives in places like Marysville and Kinglake who didn’t answer their phones. Of course we now know the Kinglake people are all dead but Aunty did a magnificent job for nearly 48 hours.
Having grown up in the SA Mallee I know a little bit about bushfires, having watched the 1980 and 1983 Ash Wednesday fires in SA I have to say the only worse way to die would be at the end of an American 1,000 pound bomb, only the bomb would be quicker.
QnQ, I think you’ve lost it. Tax cuts are in no way quality. They’re a popular grab for votes, that is very bad for the Govt budget. A tax cut is easy to implement, but hard to revoke. So, Turnbulls plan will reduce Govt income, not just once, but for a long time. Also, who’s going to rush out and spend their extra $32 a week, instead of receiving a lump of $950?
Back to Shanahan, and he was a lot more reasonable in ABC radio last thursday. He suggested Malcolm was gambling a bit, but still had a plan. If he opposes now, it gives him an ‘I told you so’ platform at the election. He will do this either way, but if he is vindicated by a proper recession, I’m sure he’ll let us know all about it.
The wonderful thing about this story, bernard, is that shamahan will be the toast of the news room, the board room and what remains of the liberal party after today’s newspoll, which means I can continue to get my daily dose of surrealist humor. why buy an anthology of edward lear when you can get shamahan for next to nothing?