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The peddlers of recession p-rn
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The peddlers of recession p-rn have been hard at it in recent weeks, barely slowed by the traditional Yuletide excess. Barely a day has gone by without some bank, investment analyst, economics commentator or ratings agency offering their own special index of misery to illustrate just how stuffed we are, or will be later in the year. Like real p-rn, of course, recession p-rn doesn’t serve much actual purpose except to get people hot and bothered, but it’s tremendously popular. Today The Daily Telegraph site even put a credit crunch story about James Packer in its scrollable gallery, usually reserved for celeb snaps and T&A shots. A “Recession rippers — Aussie babes looking for work” gallery surely can’t be far away. Admittedly there are those for whom predictions of gloom and doom aren’t about the rush of contemplating just how awful everything is going to get. For some, the looming downturn is a personal vindication. Steve Keen has complained in Crikey of being treated as an Eeyore, but really he is more a Biblical figure than a resident of the Hundred Acre Wood, having warned for years about the dangers of debt with the fervour of an Old Testament prophet. Every new piece of bad news is, for Keen, who last week upgraded his predictions of doom to “worse than the Great Depression”, evidence that he was right and the rest of us sinners, who have refused to repent of our debt-laden ways, wrong. Ed Shann is another, predicting last Monday in the AFR that “Australia is about to suffer one of the sharpest drops in income in its history.” Shann has long argued that Australian house prices are set for a fall, and finally he expects to be proved right — in a big way. There’s a puritanical air to such jeremiahs, condemning the rest of us for having it too easy for too long, and while they may not take any pleasure from our fate, there’s a grim satisfaction for them in being proved right, so they think. And while they may differ fundamentally from those who would re-regulate everything in sight and re-establish government at the centre of the economy, they have rather a lot in common with many on the Left who are taking inordinate pleasure in seeing capitalism succumb to its own failings. But most commentators aren’t of that ilk. They’re just trying to make a buck in these tough times, and recession p-rn is what sells best at the moment. So along comes Access Economics today, with a new “Business Outlook” perfectly timed for the media cycle. “Batten the Hatches” the press release cries, before retailing a litany of predictions about the doom ahead. As always, Access Economics’s release was embargoed, not for any valid commercial reason, but simply because it adds to the sense of newsworthiness. Timed for bored weekend hacks preparing Monday’s newspapers, the release was a gift for them, complete with snappy lines like “the Federal Budget is buggered” and “NSW is drowning, not waving.” Clever stuff, and Access was rewarded with strong coverage in the broadsheets this morning, leading ABC Radio news and guaranteed follow-ups when journalists raised it with Wayne Swan. After all, it’s Access Economics, “known as Australia’s ‘Treasury in exile’ for the large number of ex-Treasury officers” as The Age’s Peter Martin pointed out. There’s a little bit of intellectual sleight-of-hand in the respect accorded Access by the media, because the work of serving Treasury officers is met with scepticism and dispute from the media, but ex-Treasury types in the private sector don’t seem to get anywhere near as much questioning. But as Martin noted, Access has changed its tune rather dramatically with its latest report, having hitherto been upbeat about Australia’s prospects. Indeed, Access’s predictive record is pretty ordinary. They’ve been calling the end of the resource boom for years, and sheer persistence should finally see them get it right in 2009. They predicted that the NSW economy was about to recover in mid-2007, right before it seriously went into the toilet at the hands of Morris Iemma. And less than a year ago its pre-Budget outlook was headlined “Horror Budget or horror interest rates” on the basis that the Australian economy was running so hot the Government needed to savagely cut expenditure or watch the Reserve Bank jack up rates. That, needless to say, didn’t quite transpire. Not that Access was alone in missing the financial crisis. But their predictions about unalloyed gloom should be considered with the same scepticism that their predictions of uninterrupted growth merited. An embargoed press release and some nice lines don’t make up for being badly wrong. And however flashily it’s presented, p-rn is still just p-rn. |
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19 Comments
If this is the quality of your journalism, I think I’ll stay a squatter.
Who is Andrew Peter Thompson? I appear to be missing something …
I can’t stand all these self-appointed ‘experts’. I moved all my super into cash over 12 months ago on the simple philosophy that what goes up for a few years must eventually come down with a bump as has always happened in the past. I have been to several financial advice seminars over the last few years, as I am nearing retirement, and not one of them said to think about the cash option but merely advised to leave your super in the markets to reap the high returns. Now the downturn has happened they are still saying leave it in the markets or you will miss the recovery when it happens. Why pay enormous fees for ‘experts’ to tell you to do nothing no matter what the circumstances? People should learn from history not ‘experts’.
When you’re buggered you’re finished. So clever it aint. Battle on regardless, the world not over yet!
I have to disagree with this article. Most of economic data and commentary has not really plunged totally into the gloom and doom. To become an economic manic depressive you need to do it properly. Armageddon, wastelands…a complete meltdown of capitalism!
This stuff coming out is fairy floss, how many times to we hear “The domestic economy is set for a comeback in the fourth quarter”
Bah! Bollocks!
Yawn. Bernard’s back with another inconsequential, low-brow piece about personalities he can write from the comfort of his keyboard, without being bothered with any of that tedious research and analysis. Those of us who want more had best look elsewhere, like here, for example: http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12932336&source=hptextfeature
Is it possible that a positive spin could help the economy? Maybe shave even 0.1% off the coming unemployment spike?
We reap what we sow.
Bernard Keane, the Thabo Mbeki of the 08 global recession. My god it’s going to hurt like hell when China falters this year (due to falling US demand) and then demand for australian raw materials falls through the floor and we’re in the crapper. But it’s going to be more embarrassing for crikey, when every blagghhh mainstreak newspaper prophesied this, and the indepndent website didnt, tied as it was to an obsessive columnist
Maybe the sky is falling,I don’t know, but as sure as god made little green apples, you can be sure that neither do the economists. How many of this current crop were correctly forecasting the present crisis say 18 months ago - not many I would suspect.
Any sort of economic forecasting is fraught with danger because of the human factor, and the herd instinct.
Well Bernard old chap, my view is that the media has been hysterical - led by Kerry O’Brien in his first astonishing GFC interview with Rudd. Also on the ABC, Alan Kohler gives the impression that he is rubbing his hands with glee every time there is some new piece of bad news to report. This morning’s effort by Access Economics and Siobhain Ryan in StarShip NewsCrap was in the same vein: make a name for yourself and b*gger the consequences for everyone else. Make no mistake about it: this morning’s headlines were about Access and Ryan/SS NewsCrap blowing their own trumpets. The public good has never been a consideration in coverage of the GFC. And as for the loopy Helen Suzman comments earlier, methinks the only people promoting the eternal boom have been that late and unlamented spendthrift John Howard and his gang, through the SS NewsCrap foghorn attached to his fundament.
Last comment is it from Andrew Peter Thompson by any chance?
If the economy turns out not to be “buggered”, does that mean that Access Economics reputation is “f-ked”…?
The job of the economic forecaster is very similar to that of magician’s assistant. They are there to befuddle the public while the state magicians pull off some sneaky sleight of hand. So look out. The magicians to whom we have delegated our authority are about to pull a swiftie. They are hoping we will be so distracted by the impending R or even D, that we won’t notice their shameless grab for further power.
The US and the UK are much further down the track on this one and the public still seems to be asleep (even if awoken momentarily by the Obamacapades) before lapsing back into their disengaged stupor.
We, on the other hand, should be thinking of how to capitalise onthe rest of the world’s deficiencies instead of quaking in our boots at impending doom!. Get moving Australia..this is a period of unbridled opportunity as long as we don’t wait around for the state to “save us’!
With apologies to Lizzie Browning: “How do I love to be rooted? Let me count the ways…”
Welcome back Bernard Keane and well said.
But Steve Keen was indeed right, you know. Your party’s over, and all of us have to pay. Why was it your party?
The difference between Steve Keen and your industry commentators is that he is not paid to be biased.
Me too. “Thabo Mbeki”? That’s the most obscure insult ever directed at me, and I’ve copped some hard-to-fathom stuff in my time. Does that mean CK was Nelson Mandela?
Problem 1: The media motives for jumping at this story. The only real news at the moment is the scandal in Gaza. Not the unravelling economy, not NSW politics but still these are preferred fodder. The big media have grabbed this economy story because Gaza is a bit morally complex but not nearly as much as we are told given Israel’s air strike killing 5 or 6 on 4th November and 4 month food blockade during a truce. Problem is being Israel being an ally, and the ascendant politician here Rudd being totally okay it seems by his silence with 5000 plus dead and injured, there’s no easy way to tell the truth. So much for Bonhoeffer. What a fake.
There’s no gain for any journo or politician or perhaps even media outlet who wants to speak up for Arabs over widespread prejudice.
Problem 2: Access were a bit slow to buy into the China boom has 5 or 10 years still left in it in late 2007 early 2008 as I recall it. That scepticism is looking fairly good.
Problem 3: The West and the world are living way beyond the ecological limits of this Planet, so a serious GFC is just what the doctor ordered. Never mind the human financial construct. I couldn’t give a stuff about people losing their mindless, shallow lifestyle. If everyone downshifts and simplifies it will be an absolute blessing in big city amenity and quality of relationships, not to mention obesity. Go and do some gardening and get over it.
There was an Andrew Peter Thompson involved in the Radio 2 or World Audio disaster where a radio station was created in the hope of it working on a digital licence that wasn’t granted. So it folded and its multi-million dollar studios and business went into administration with the equipment auctioned off. A modern mechano venture with business gurus creating the mythical in case it became a reality.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/world-audios-digital-hopes-off-air-for-now/2005/10/14/1128796712358.html?from=moreStories
I have noticed the same thing myself. Some ‘Economic Forecasters’ get it so wrong, so often, that I wonder why they keep getting called back by the media. ‘Don’t they have any standards or accountabilty for their talking heads anymore?’ I ask myself.
Then, after I considered who keeps getting asked back, and especially in Chris Richardson of Access Economics case, it occurred to me. It’s because he sounds authoratative and looks good.
So, it appears that you no longer have to be right. As long as you fit the editorial agenda, sound authoritative, and look good, you’ll always have a gig.
Who cares if it upsets the horses? Or destabilises the economy? It makes for great infotainment and will be great for ratings throughout the year.