“That is not to minimise the effect of rockets falling relentlessly on a civilian population, nor the meaning of the relatively small number of deaths. To say as one commentator did, that the rockets have ‘nagged’ Israelis is to misidentify the act (even if you consider the rockets legitimite resistance). “

Possibly that’s a little compressed, but I think it’s pretty clear that I was acknowledging the relentless psychological toll, and that the deaths - about the same number as one Israeli bomb on an apartment block - couldn’t be disregarded.

Nor do I believe for a second the argument that the use of longer range rockets prompted the current attack - 98% of Hamas rockets are still short range Qassams.

Nor did I get into the question of who broke the ceasefire, of the legitimicy or otherwise of Hamas’s acts, historical fault etc. I simply made the point that to claim a six year rocket campaign as both a measure of your forbearance, and an existential threat authorising unlimited force, was dishonest and cynical.

Allon Lee can take or leave my suggestion that the attack’s motives are political as he wishes - but it’s an opinion shared with a fair few others, not least half the op-ed contributors of Haaretz. Indeed in the 24 hours since the article was published, Lipni, Barak, Netenyahu and Olmert have started openly fighting with each other over war aims, withdrawal conditions, victory standards etc, the first three in a sprint to the electoral finish line, the last desperate not to have another muddled war on his account.

As the Gaza attack starts to look more and more like Lebanon 06, the remix, I’d suggest Lee ponder whether my analysis is not a more accurate picture of this unfolding moral and strategic disaster.

1. A dramatic increase in the extent of rocket fire and mortar shelling (despite
the six months long lull in the fighting) in 2008, the peak year of rocket fire and
mortar shelling, a total of 3,278 rockets and mortar shells landed in Israeli territory
(1,750 rockets and 1,528 mortar shells).

The number of landings in 2008 more than doubled compared to 2007.

2. A significant increase in the number of Israeli residents exposed to rocket
fire within 40 km of the Gaza Strip: before 2008, the city of Sderot (about 20,000
residents) as well as villages around the Gaza Strip were the preferred target of rocket
fire and mortar shelling. In 2008, other cities and hundreds of thousands of Israelis
gradually entered the circle of fire: first the cities of Ashkelon and Netivot, Ashdod, Beersheba, and other cities within a range of 40 kilometers from the Gaza Strip. The rocket attacks created a new reality in which nearly one million Israeli residents (about 15 percent of the entire population) are exposed to rocket fire and mortar shelling in various levels of intensity.

3. A significant improvement in the effectiveness of rockets and mortar shells possessed by Hamas and an increase in their quantity: in 2008, Hamas put into use 122-mm Grad launchers (for ranges of 20.4 km and approximately 40 km) and standard 120-mm mortars, which were smuggled into the Gaza Strip (probably from Iran). Those standard rockets and mortars, significantly different from self-manufactured rockets and mortars, not only increased the range of fire but also increased its effectiveness. That is a result of increasing the rockets’ warhead size and their fragmentation. As for the mortars—the standard 120-mm mortars are more precise and their range is greater than that of the other mortars

4. 6 months more Tel Aviv?

Israel will finish up talking with Hamas, whether it likes it or not.

What will be harder for it will be to stem the international stench it thought it might have avoided.

The reality is that Sderot is a paradise as far as trauma is concerned…compared to the Nazi style bombardment of Gaza all day and all night (oh and there are no shelters in Gaza guys)..by land, sea and air. How many of these apologists for Israel would spend an hour in Gaza let alone a day in Sderot.

Essentially, the Israelis are cowards.The Palestinians will happily stop digging tunnels, making pitiful homemade rockets and engaging in suicide bombing if the Israelis will just let them be supplied with warplanes, missiles, and attack helicopters as they are…by the US. That’s also why the Israelis prefer to do their killing from a great height or a great distance…Ugh!

You’re a disgrace to your Australian citizenship.

A pox on AIJAC & its fascist equivalents around the world.

I can’t see how the answer can be anything but ‘no’, on both counts. It follows that the election of Hamas was a mistake. Mistakes generally have to be paid for. It’s as sad as it was predictable that the currency of this payment is blood.

Lee goes on to state “But the sad reality is that Hamas fires rockets from civilian areas and uses its own people and children as human shields, knowing full well the propaganda value of Palestinian civilian deaths.” A Heartless, racist and shocking statement.

Tom McLoughlin’s point on the breaking of the ceasefire is pertinent to the situation, along with the fact that the IDF has been planning this assault for 18mths. Why now? Outgoing US administration & upcoming elections perhaps? who knows? The question needs to be asked, what really is the difference between the Gaza strip of 2008/9 and the Warsaw ghetto of 1943.

The tunnels to Egypt were working as fast as they could but never fast enough to supply 1.5 million Gazans. The Israelis showed no real interest in lifting the “economic sanctions” via their crippling blockade via the Israeli border. They mitgated any sympathy with the ‘knowledge’ their enemy was importing missiles via the Egypt/Philedelphi border of 9 km or so. Besides they weren’t going to give their sworn enemy Hamas a break, that had survived the US/Israel backed coup a year previous because free flow of food and and supplies would set Hamas up as a successful govt that delivers on it’s election.

So they starve Hamas, and 1.5 million Gazans half of them children. Hamas gets desperate. 45% of the children in Gaza are anaemic and with that life threatening illnesses. Others have no hope of timely medical services. Eqypt won’t help because they have their own diplomacy to juggle with the US and Israel - the toughest players in the region.

So Hamas lets a tactical tunnel go thru to the Israeli side. They need extra leverage to bargain with to lift the starvation blockade and bolster their government credentials. They are thinking of kidnapping another Israeli soldier like Gilad Shilat - by the way Google to Xinhua (Chinese?) News agency suggests the tactic is ongoing 12 Jan 09:
http://sify.com/news/fullstory.php?id=14835695

Israel springs the tunnel and responds with maximum air force killing 5 Hamas members. Up until this time there has been 4 months of near to complete break in shelling of rockets and mortars. But this exchange effectively brings the ceasefire to an early conclusion. Hamas rockets recommence at the previous intensity pre June 08.

Only this time the southern Israelis have enjoyed the peace alot and they vote …

Here’s five things we can all hope for: let Israel renounce violence as an option, stop it’s noxious anti-Palestinian incitement and accept a Palestinian homeland to pre-1967 borders, endorse peace as a strategic goal and for Lee and his ilk to wake up to reality. !

Sad but true……the solution to this problem will NEVER be found in Israel. Unless Obama breaks the stranglehold of the US Jewish lobby over Washington, there will be a full blown war in which millions on both sides will perish.

Of course the Zionists will be blaming everyone but themselves for the tragedy.

Indeed. As the Palestinian people sowed, so are they reaping.

And I thought we weren’t allowed to mention the nuclear facilities - what’s that for ?

LIST OF GLOBAL COMPANIES TO BOYCOT WHO INVEST HEAVILY IN ISRAEL;

check out the following link for a start:

http://www.mylinkspage.com/israel.html

Most of these companies operate in Australia.

However, I need a detailed list of those Israeli companies who export to Oz, as well as those Oz companies who export to Israel. The Australia Israeli Chamber of Commerce lists are not working at present…….I wonder why?

NOTE:

Any goods with a bar code beginning with 729 are Israeli manufactured.

Tell the business where you find them that you will not be buying any goods from Israel due to their genocide against the Palestinian people.

I’ll be passing this information onto the couple of dozen persons on my personal email list who will pass it on to the the couple of dozen on their lists etc etc….within a month or two we have the potential to censure Israel for its genocide against the Palestinian people……..GO TO IT, ALL

“BG Group at centre of $4bn deal to supply Gaza gas to Israel …”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article1826739.ece

dated 23 May 2007.

So Gaza does have something Israel can use after all. Like a smaller version of Iraq oil in play? And who benefits from the income of that? Certain sleazy politicians running for office, maybe getting a few donations?

Also one assumes it never occurred to Israel that they could simultaneously open the Israeli side of the border to full throttle food medical and other genuine supplies and at the same time bomb the Philadelphi tunnels with a bit of warning to protect civillian lives?

How complicated can it be? Stock standard carrot and stick. But there is no carrot under a Right wing USA and Israeli administrations. These people are failed politicians and failed individuals with a capital F.

But he is dishonest. He knows the number, accuracy and range of these missiles has been increasing rapidly.
Today he extends that dishonesty: “Nor do I believe for a second the argument that the use of longer range rockets prompted the current attack”

By Hamas’ own leadership admission the ‘lulls’ or ‘ceasefire’ are used only to rearm.

There is no paradox in Israel acting now and as Allon Lee points out: “it was Hamas’ decision to not renew the six-month ceasefire that ended on 19 December, which they underlined with another barrage of hundreds of rockets and mortars”.

Election or no election the government would not stay in power long without taking (in ruddspeak) “quick and decisive action” but this instance it actually means something!

Mr Netanyahu, Israel’s right-wing opposition leader and still favourite to win next month’s elections, said yesterday that Israel needed a “clear victory” against Hamas and the movement should “ultimately be removed” from Gaza. He called for a victory against the Islamist movement “that will cripple its capability” to attack. “At a minimum, the firing of rockets must stop and the smuggling corridors that have enabled Hamas to smuggle thousands of rockets into Gaza must be sealed,” he told a news conference.

“We are fighting a just war, perhaps the most just war there is.”

Mr Netanyahu’s lead in the polls has diminished in the last 2 weeks and the overwhelming majority of Israelis support this action by their government and military.

If you want to call that a ‘political motive’ fire ahead!

Livni & Barak would be better for the cause of peace than Netanyahu but Hamas is the biggest obstacle to peace of all.