Comments on: Republicans a good chance in 2012 http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/11/11/republicans-a-good-chance-in-2012/ now with extra source Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:39:23 +1100 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: David http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/11/11/republicans-a-good-chance-in-2012/#comment-23307 David Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-23307 Had Mr McCrann written this column say a year into the Obama presidency, I would then maybe, just maybe give it a certain degree of relativity. For goodness sake the man hasn't even been sworn in yet, what is the point in gazing into ones navel and coming up with all manner of hypothetical maybe this and what if that. Perhaps Mr McCrann would care to now write another article giving reasons why President elect Obama could well triple or quadruple his vote. it amazes me the Morgan staff have nothing better to do, obviously there is not enough happening at home to warrant its attention and polling. What a waste of time a week after the event. Incidently to even suggest Sen McCain would stand in 2012 is so laughable, it deserves to be treated as such. Had Mr McCrann written this column say a year into the Obama presidency, I would then maybe, just maybe give it a certain degree of relativity. For goodness sake the man hasn’t even been sworn in yet, what is the point in gazing into ones navel and coming up with all manner of hypothetical maybe this and what if that. Perhaps Mr McCrann would care to now write another article giving reasons why President elect Obama could well triple or quadruple his vote. it amazes me the Morgan staff have nothing better to do, obviously there is not enough happening at home to warrant its attention and polling. What a waste of time a week after the event. Incidently to even suggest Sen McCain would stand in 2012 is so laughable, it deserves to be treated as such.

]]> By: gavin brown http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/11/11/republicans-a-good-chance-in-2012/#comment-23308 gavin brown Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-23308 <br />While it is true that it would only take a turnaround of 435,343 votes for a Republican challenger to win back the White House it would be a bizarre result. The winner of the popular vote almost always wins the election. On only 3 occassions (1876, 1888 and 2000) has a candidate lost the popular vote but won the electoral college and therefor the presidency. While it is true that it would only take a turnaround of 435,343 votes for a Republican challenger to win back the White House it would be a bizarre result. The winner of the popular vote almost always wins the election. On only 3 occassions (1876, 1888 and 2000) has a candidate lost the popular vote but won the electoral college and therefor the presidency.

]]> By: Kevin Rennie http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/11/11/republicans-a-good-chance-in-2012/#comment-23309 Kevin Rennie Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-23309 If Democrats pick up approximately 370,000 Republican voters in Missouri, Georgia, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota and North Dakota they would get back 40 Electoral College Votes leaving a surplus of 80,000 over what is required to balance the losses in your scenario. This does not even take into account Ralph Nader or Bob Barr's voters. 80,000 would be enough to win Alaska's 3 EVs.<br /><br />I hope that Morgan don't conduct their polling in such a psephologist's fantasy land. I wonder how many of Julian McCrann's 450,000 will be dead in 2012. Mind you that's never stopped some from voting in the past.<br /><br />There were many beat-ups before polling day about how McCain could win with a minority of the popular vote. The same was true before our 2007 poll. If Obama loses in 2012 it will not be the result of some improbable numbers game. If Democrats pick up approximately 370,000 Republican voters in Missouri, Georgia, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota and North Dakota they would get back 40 Electoral College Votes leaving a surplus of 80,000 over what is required to balance the losses in your scenario. This does not even take into account Ralph Nader or Bob Barr’s voters. 80,000 would be enough to win Alaska’s 3 EVs.

I hope that Morgan don’t conduct their polling in such a psephologist’s fantasy land. I wonder how many of Julian McCrann’s 450,000 will be dead in 2012. Mind you that’s never stopped some from voting in the past.

There were many beat-ups before polling day about how McCain could win with a minority of the popular vote. The same was true before our 2007 poll. If Obama loses in 2012 it will not be the result of some improbable numbers game.

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