Imagine if Howard and Costello were managing the credit crisis
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So how would we be faring if the Coalition had won last November? If John Howard and Peter Costello were running the show instead of Kruddy and Swanny? Conventional wisdom is probably that, given the Coalition’s record of economic management, the soothing presence of Howard and Costello would be comforting Australians that all would be well. After all, Costello predicted a financial “tsunami” last year, although inconveniently he reckoned it would come out of China, not from the very Holy of Holies of capitalism, Wall St. I’m not so sure. Given his form in exploiting 9/11 and terrorism for domestic political purposes, Howard’s first order of business would doubtless have been trying to use the crisis to inflict maximum damage on the ALP. If Rudd or whoever was leading Labor had dared to make the sorts of complaints about bank consolidation or failure to pass on interest rates made – rightly – by Malcolm Turnbull, a full-blown campaign would’ve been launched against him by the Government and its cheerleaders about his economic incompetence and unfitness for office. Moreover, Howard would also be using the crisis as an excuse to yet again delay his retirement, generating Episode 49 of the Will-Costello-Challenge saga. And that’d be exactly what Australia needed at this point – a Treasurer in bitter conflict with his hated Prime Minister. Again. Howard would also be seizing on the crisis to delay any action on addressing other issues like climate change. Remember that? Only a genuine world-wide depression is going to seriously slow the rate of emissions growth. Short of that, we can’t hit the Pause button on the greenhouse effect while we get our economic act together. Think we can’t afford to be distracted while we avoid an economic catastrophe? Too bad. You can ignore climate change, but that will just make it worse. All it does is yet again point out the appalling folly of failing to do something during the boom years, when we could’ve established an emissions trading scheme and god knows what else standing on our heads. A big thank you to John Howard and the Liberal Party for so comprehensively screwing us on that. The Prime Minister and Treasurer have handled things well thus far. Their Big Jack Sobersides We’re-Very-Serious-About-All-This act is getting a little boring in its repetition – what sort of shape are our bank balance sheets in again, Kevin? - but this isn’t the time for Obama-esque soaring rhetoric, as even Dennis Shanahan has worked out (and by the way wasn’t it SO predictable that Michael Costa ended up at The Oz?). But they have yet to show that they can keep the key policy balls in the air while coping with a major economic crisis. Australia will still have skill shortages, and infrastructure gaps, and flaws in its tax and incomes system, and a predisposition to oligopoly in its major markets, when the crisis comes to an end, as well as facing the costs of climate change. Rudd and Swan need to find a way to keep talking about those long-term and structural issues and ignoring the inevitable complaints that they are mere distractions from the real issue of panicking about the financial meltdown. They also have to deal with the problem of the states. Like the Howard Government, state governments failed to invest the benefits of the boom years in their infrastructure and balance sheets. Unlike the Howard Government, many of them were also incompetent managers. The NSW Government, in particular, would have struggled to cope even if the boom had continued, and is wholly unprepared for a significant slowing of growth. The mismanagement of State Governments could be Rudd’s Achilles Heel – and not just politically, but economically as well. This puts extra pressure on Rudd to get “cooperative federalism” working as well as possible, at a time when he will have less money to use as bribes – the traditional means of getting the states to engage in any serious reform. The involvement of state governments in infrastructure investments, in particular, is going to become more problematic. The comments by Infrastructure Australia Coordinator Michael Deegan that the states have served up a bunch of half-baked schemes without any decent supporting evidence is deeply worrying, because it shows that an entire level of government still doesn’t understand that infrastructure is about more than vote-buying or Keynesian pump priming. Infrastructure Australia could do worse than simply sideline State Governments and rely on industry and environmental groups to identify the projects they think will yield greatest returns. It is Commonwealth money, after all, and there’s nothing wrong with offering funding for projects to the states on a take-it-or-leave-it basis. In short, Rudd has not just got a major economic meltdown to deal with, but the sort of historic problems that would tough nuts even when times were great. The only saving grace is that Rudd looks like the sort of guy who loves a challenge – and the more the better. |
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14 Comments
Given the threat of a recession that could force thousands out of work and hundreds of businesses to close, unlike the irresponsible Labor Government and its fans such as Bernard Keane, Costello and Howard would have had enough common sense to protect our standard of living by ditching any ETS scheme, particularly as there is no scientific evidence to substantiate man-induced global warming.
Costello is all over the place today spruiking his own credentials, yet he did absolutely nothing as treasurer except to sell everything tax payers ever owned back to stupid taxpayers who are now taking a bath for their efforts.
Good one Pistol Pete, the laziest treasurer in history.
He is also still peddling the no government debt mantra successfully debunked by Stephen Mayne and others last year - it’s called all that unfunded liabililty for super for public servants.
Howard is trying to get his two bobs worth, Turnbull is rambling idiot nonsense and Shanahan seems to have forgotten his cheerleading role in the lies about pension bonuses when Rudd was forced to pay out money to a few and ignore the many.
Humbug to the lot of them.
But it is not as bad as McMoron and Palin trying to tie Obama to the weather underground and Bill Ayers in particular without checking if Ayers ever actually committed any violent or criminal act.
He didn’t.
Oh! Are we coping without Howard and Costello? I think so. But the images of how the pair might have handled the current set of events are hysterical. Cos and Howie would love to re-write history as two quintessential political performers the nation never fully appreciated. Cos would assert he’d seen this financial tsunami coming throughout his full parliamentary term. It was the rationale behind his long-term cringe role as Howard’s punching bag. In a secret and personal pledge he repressed his leadership desires to commit an acclaimed fiscal genius to the higher mission of a nation beset by a world crisis. And he’d be press-conferencing his way to Washington on a hormonal high with a chance to re-write history while lambasting the world’s silliest treasurers for treating him like a two-bob accountant. Meantime back home, the cricketing tragic in his baggy greens and joggers would’ve been a permanent fixture as a seasoned coin-tosser for international one-day’ers and matches. Relaxed and comfortable with a divided party he’d see his role as the country’s ‘best person to lead in this critical time’. All yesterday and thankfully just a humorous past. Shame it wasn’t funny at the time!
Yes Howard … Costello didn’t manage some things well - quite the opposite in some areas.
But show me a perfect politician and I’ll show you the where the fountain of youth is. You go first.
So, realistically … why is Australia in such good shape? Is it because over 16 years the last government took us from having the country’s credit card maxed out to overflowing (spent by Labor) … to a position envied by many.
And Chairman Rudd then has the temerity to address the nation to say his time in office has steeled the nation to weather the crisis.
Please!!! This is some of the best written comedy since Kath met Kim.
I’m off to the fountain for a sip so I can start my life again once these frauds have all gone away. Better make it a big drink on second thought.
Sorry should read: I was not the author of the POST you edited
Sarah Stokely: “we edit or delete defamatory or gratuitously attacking content”. Good and I agree.
Write me an email explaining how my post fulfills this definition. Moreover in the other thread I guess you refer to, I was not the author of the thread you edited. Suddenly after 10 months posting 2 of my comments at the same time are removed both 48 hrs after posting. None of my posts to my knowledge have ever been edited nor removed before.
This is not the way any reasonable policy should be applied. This is simply unilateral totalitarian action: the very antithesis of liberalism. I suggest that it had much to do with Jonathan Greene and nil to do with “defamatory or gratuitously attacking content”. I expect an email response.
Jonathan at Crikey is apparently on a leftist vandetta.
He has scrubbed a comment of mine 48 hrs after the comment was posted. No reason supplied.
Totalitarian as well as an inveterate extreme leftist.
Or perhaps it also was “simply (too) dull” Jonathan ‘bully boy’ at Crikey?
Excellent article!
@James K
Actually (as I’ve posted before, in a different thread) we edit or delete defamatory or gratuitously attacking content.
Here’s the code of conduct.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/crikey-code-of-conduct/
I quote: “We prefer not to have to edit or delete comments on our website, so please help us uphold the code of conduct so we don’t have to.”
we would have been far better off if Labour had been running the country, just look at New South Wales.
Bernard - great reading, thanks!
I want to admit that it was I, not the leader of the Opposition who caused that 1% rate cut, and it was via the comment string on crikey.com.au if only people had noticed - it was my reference to ‘Government of Rich People by Rich People for Rich People’ that did it … I reckon. Because with all that super tanking and credibility of endless growth in a finite ecology, the proles were bound to sniff some revolution. Or else demand hefty hefty cuts in executive wages, so voila desperate measures with a 1% rate cut to change the vibe. But will it work? Rich folks are still doing better than the poor. A couple I know, retired, wife with special needs, lost $10K of their $90K super. Took it out recently to stop the rot into a CBA account. Ouch.
Don’t know about you but that sort of pisses me off.
Also regarding skills shortages and climate change, how’s this for a conjuction of thinking: Heather Ridout, chief executive of Australian Industry Group - and a handy psephologist pre Rudd election some say - had a piece in The Oz mid week in Higher Education at p29 under a picture of ‘polar bears’ with signs saying “SAVE THE HUMANS” - story was all about “Industry must go for green skills” … like for “3.25 million workers in sectors that have a high environmental impact”. So true HR, so true.
Yes Mr Keane - quite some balance here!
But as for Mr Rudd and his Treasurer, still all we hear is words. You are right about the boring repetition about bank balance sheets and the fundamentals of the Australian economy, none of which have anything to do with the jobs of Rudd and Swan.
It really is time that Rudd actually did something - anything. Enough of words, spin, and reviews. As for spending the budget surplus they so judiciously put into “funds” let’s remember that the principle in May 08 was to control inflation. The big-spending proposals of this Govt - infrastructure or not - and govts in Europe and the USA run huge risks as to hyperinflation, and this must be considered in the mix.
The mess that exists in Australia per favour our State govts may well bite hard as Rudd does whatever Rudd may do.
Very objective article Bernard. Very Objective…