Comments on: Garnaut’s recommended 10% emission cut http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/09/12/garnauts-recommended-10-emission-cut/ now with extra source Tue, 24 Nov 2009 03:42:43 +1100 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Ken Fabos http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/09/12/garnauts-recommended-10-emission-cut/#comment-23988 Ken Fabos Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-23988 It seems like a lot of Australians who surely know better are perpetuating the myth that whatever Australia does is small in the global scheme of things. The biggest contributor to CO2 emissions is coal and Australia is one of the worlds largest sources of coal. We are right up there with China and the USA and we are not even acknowledging that our decisions about coal production are even relevant to this issue. On a nation basis we are right up there. With Australians taking responsibility for the coal we export we would have to be, in per capita terms, the biggest contributors to global emissions in the world. Yet any policies that inhibit coal production are simply not on the table for discussion - whilst quietly our gov'ts, state and federal are proactive in seeing major expansion in coal mining and export continue.<br /><br />Even if we continue to keep up the pretence that it's not us and what we do won't make much difference, the rest of the world is unlikely to be wearing the same blinkers. Australia will be lucky, should they ever get serious about it, not to face the derision, scorn and sanctions of a world that sees clearly that Australia is major part of the problem.<br /><br />Ultimately I despair of the world really getting a grip on this. It's not enough for renewables to be on a par cost wise with current or ETS boosted coal prices; until and unless clean energy is the low cost logical choice, better and cheaper than coal at any price the industry will go on. Let's be quite clear about this - we need to see the coal industy collapse. And currently that's close to being unspeakable in Australian politics.<br /><br /><br /><br /> It seems like a lot of Australians who surely know better are perpetuating the myth that whatever Australia does is small in the global scheme of things. The biggest contributor to CO2 emissions is coal and Australia is one of the worlds largest sources of coal. We are right up there with China and the USA and we are not even acknowledging that our decisions about coal production are even relevant to this issue. On a nation basis we are right up there. With Australians taking responsibility for the coal we export we would have to be, in per capita terms, the biggest contributors to global emissions in the world. Yet any policies that inhibit coal production are simply not on the table for discussion - whilst quietly our gov’ts, state and federal are proactive in seeing major expansion in coal mining and export continue.

Even if we continue to keep up the pretence that it’s not us and what we do won’t make much difference, the rest of the world is unlikely to be wearing the same blinkers. Australia will be lucky, should they ever get serious about it, not to face the derision, scorn and sanctions of a world that sees clearly that Australia is major part of the problem.

Ultimately I despair of the world really getting a grip on this. It’s not enough for renewables to be on a par cost wise with current or ETS boosted coal prices; until and unless clean energy is the low cost logical choice, better and cheaper than coal at any price the industry will go on. Let’s be quite clear about this - we need to see the coal industy collapse. And currently that’s close to being unspeakable in Australian politics.

]]> By: Tom McLoughlin http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/09/12/garnauts-recommended-10-emission-cut/#comment-23989 Tom McLoughlin Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-23989 Political history folks - green movement has been used by the ALP FOR DECADES to wedge the Libs and Nats. The greenies concerns even when right are not the motivations of the ALP in traditional form - though I think we may be about to see a break out in NSW under Rees and Tebbutt that maybe they do a bit being young enough generation to be scared. Maybe. In traditional form the ALP want the power and after getting over that line it's backsliding as a general rule.<br /><br />One must manage one's expectations based on experience. Rudd is a jellyback on greenhouse, no fear of that. Garnaut can hardly go too far beyond his political economy remit. And anyway he's spent most of his professional career in the growth fetish economy so it's amaazing he's gone this far - and credit to him for that. <br /><br />But the fact is Rudd's ALP (not least trogs like Emerson) don't really feel and believe it. The prime exemplar is Bob Carr on forest protection in the tight March 1995 election. Carr only ever promised to protect 50% of the at risk wilderness forests, doing his best to fudge the detail, and then under duress agreed to 'close the Eden Chipmill if practical'. That's what got him over the line in 3 marginals with the weight of the greens and nascent Green Party. Carr then instituted the real plan namely 20 year logging guarrantees to the woodchippers now at record levels of tonnage.<br /><br />For NSW woodchipping of natural forests read carbon/ghg emissions and free permits to noisy corporates in business as usual political economy. For the ALP regarding green issues up until now its always been about redefining how they got the election victory ... at least until the first southern cyclone hits a major population centre anyway, maybe Brisbane ... then it's anyone's guess. Even the hard heads in the ALP will crack probably too late. Political history folks - green movement has been used by the ALP FOR DECADES to wedge the Libs and Nats. The greenies concerns even when right are not the motivations of the ALP in traditional form - though I think we may be about to see a break out in NSW under Rees and Tebbutt that maybe they do a bit being young enough generation to be scared. Maybe. In traditional form the ALP want the power and after getting over that line it’s backsliding as a general rule.

One must manage one’s expectations based on experience. Rudd is a jellyback on greenhouse, no fear of that. Garnaut can hardly go too far beyond his political economy remit. And anyway he’s spent most of his professional career in the growth fetish economy so it’s amaazing he’s gone this far - and credit to him for that.

But the fact is Rudd’s ALP (not least trogs like Emerson) don’t really feel and believe it. The prime exemplar is Bob Carr on forest protection in the tight March 1995 election. Carr only ever promised to protect 50% of the at risk wilderness forests, doing his best to fudge the detail, and then under duress agreed to ‘close the Eden Chipmill if practical’. That’s what got him over the line in 3 marginals with the weight of the greens and nascent Green Party. Carr then instituted the real plan namely 20 year logging guarrantees to the woodchippers now at record levels of tonnage.

For NSW woodchipping of natural forests read carbon/ghg emissions and free permits to noisy corporates in business as usual political economy. For the ALP regarding green issues up until now its always been about redefining how they got the election victory … at least until the first southern cyclone hits a major population centre anyway, maybe Brisbane … then it’s anyone’s guess. Even the hard heads in the ALP will crack probably too late.

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