http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/08/12/even-psephologists-make-mistakes/ now with extra source Sat, 11 Feb 2012 22:03:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/08/12/even-psephologists-make-mistakes/#comment-7424 Charles Richardson Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-7424 Thanks for the feedback.<br />(a) As Graeme Lewis says, the 60% turnout notion is "a total furphy"; Antony Green comprehensively debunks it here: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2008/08/turnout-at-the.html . Turnout will actually be close to 80%.<br />(b) If you go back and read my piece from last Friday, it will be clear that I'm working with the post-redistribution notional figures, under which the CLP was starting with seven seats, not four, so they have indeed gained four seats to get to eleven. Thanks for the feedback.
(a) As Graeme Lewis says, the 60% turnout notion is “a total furphy”; Antony Green comprehensively debunks it here: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2008/08/turnout-at-the.html . Turnout will actually be close to 80%.
(b) If you go back and read my piece from last Friday, it will be clear that I’m working with the post-redistribution notional figures, under which the CLP was starting with seven seats, not four, so they have indeed gained four seats to get to eleven.

]]> http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/08/12/even-psephologists-make-mistakes/#comment-7422 Graeme Lewis Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-7422 Poor Charles Richardson! Who is he anyway. He clearly knows nothing about the Northern Territory or its people or its political parties. His writings in recent weeks demonstrate this to the extreme.<br />At the time he wrote todays piece, the Country Liberals had picked up not four but seven seats - a huge difference - leaving Labor in fact with the smallest majority possible. That was a huge error Mr R. and any Psephologist worth his salt would be looking far past the "low turn-out" story (a total furphy). What this swing - and maybe the failure of many to vote, if that be true - is that LAbor had become arrogant, and had failed to deliver their well-spun promises on so many fronts. Indeed, as with Rudd today, they had become a Government by spin - not action. Poor Charles Richardson! Who is he anyway. He clearly knows nothing about the Northern Territory or its people or its political parties. His writings in recent weeks demonstrate this to the extreme.
At the time he wrote todays piece, the Country Liberals had picked up not four but seven seats - a huge difference - leaving Labor in fact with the smallest majority possible. That was a huge error Mr R. and any Psephologist worth his salt would be looking far past the “low turn-out” story (a total furphy). What this swing - and maybe the failure of many to vote, if that be true - is that LAbor had become arrogant, and had failed to deliver their well-spun promises on so many fronts. Indeed, as with Rudd today, they had become a Government by spin - not action.

]]> http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/08/12/even-psephologists-make-mistakes/#comment-7423 psephologist back from the future Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-7423 What went wrong (c) 40% did not turn out to vote. Add this to the informals and there are a lot of questions to be asked by psephologists about the future of voting patterns, rather than comparisons with past voting habbits. What went wrong (c) 40% did not turn out to vote. Add this to the informals and there are a lot of questions to be asked by psephologists about the future of voting patterns, rather than comparisons with past voting habbits.

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