Comments on: NT result: bad for the ALP, even worse for pundits

By: Tom McLoughlin

Tom McLoughlin — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

I'm just wondering about some 'third party, segementation' type effects up there: Back in July 1998 I spent 3 weeks helping organise the legal data base of hundreds of arrestees for anti Jabiluka protests in a demountable in Jabiru and then out of the Env Centre NT office.

(It was the week Jeff Buckley died too and they played "Everybody wants you" on the morning radio and you could hear the lump in the announcer's throat. But anyways ...)

Howard lost the Jabiluka U mine arm wrestle and it hurt I bet. And some real activist talent stayed up North when the busloads left for down south again.

Next the land councils etc did over Shane Stone's statehood referendum a year or so later. Then the ALP got the shock of their life winning the 2001 election. So how much of that activist injection in 1998-9 changed things there? Itself based on the call out by TO's Yvonne Margarula and Jacqui Katona from 1997? The nascent Green Party probably didn't attract too much attention 8 years ago.

Well it's just speculation really, but personally I have no doubt that activist crowd was a tonic on Darwin society back then, and Howard's intervention in 2007 was partly about reversing the embarrassment of 1998, and the referendum loss, and the ALP win in 2001. And personally I am beginning to think, notwithstanding Bob Brown's boosting of their result at the election on the weekend, that the Green Party ramp up off a low base in the NT might have taken some edge and synergy off the ALP machine? That is the greens/Greens are no longer doing Labor's work for them in the grassroots domain?

And here's another wild idea - all that expensive languishing infrastructure at Christmas Island (Good Weekend recently) was in case the hawks in Howard's regime decided to go for a nuclear armed and/or joint US base to match the space port and ex PM's nuke dual use energy agenda. I'll never forget seeing those modern Roman princes in uniform back from Pine Gap mobbing for their departure, loud and proud at the bus depot presumably off to the Darwin Aiport. Their accents gave me a headache.

I wonder if ex NDP Mr Garrett sees any merit in these suspicions, or is it all just too conspiracy?

By: Tom #2

Tom #2 — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

Good one Kevin.

Also just to clarify my reverie about Jeff Buckley RIP above, true anecdote listening to that song in the blaring blaring tropical sun but actually it must have been a year anniversary by the radio show (early July 1998 for May 29 1997) and the song was a posthumous release, quality stuff. Up until then I'd never really listened to his stuff.

Seemed to fit the surreal politics of the moment.

By: David

David — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

The result simply reflects the fickle nature of the NT electoral system, where any seat can be decided by a handful of votes of the 3000 or so voters in each seat. Having said that, NT voters are a cynical lot and will general give the finger to someone for calling an early election on the basis that only one party can deliver a gas plant. At the end of the day it can hardly be seen as a ringing endorsement for Mills or rejection of Hendo. I liked Malcolm Turnbull’s cheek in the Oz today suggesting it reflected on a lack of Federal Labor leadership…or words to that effect! Pots and kettles come to mind.

By: DesertFish

DesertFish — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

Werte (Arrente greeting) Crikey, IMO, Labor shot itself in the foot by not supporting it’s traditional base again, maybe taking too much advice from southerners again but KRudds recipe has been analysed, the secret ingredients were found to be artificial & alot of the looney left up north asked for a refund, or at least, a more organic party.
As Marilyn stated, Territory Labor jumped on CLPs “law & order’ quota while ignoring any seats south of the Berrimah line & the biggest shift in Aboriginal Affairs (the Intervention takeover) didn’t rate a mention.
With the Territory Aboriginal population making a third of the potential polling pie, I thought any efforts to criticise the Howard, Brough, Pearson propaganda program on behalf of the constituents directly subjugated would have won themselves some heart if not votes. Just like the feds, maybe they’ll realise that the hippy Green vote (who protested by not giving preferences to anyone, which could have been crucial in some seats) cannot be ignored, at least in this case they lost my vote.

By: Claret

Claret — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

I too agree with James - the so-called commentariat are terrible. There is no attempt to provide informed, intelligent information, it is either lazy press releases or totally biased comment based on their own or their editor’s point of view. I also get sick of these ‘journalists’ arrogantly pontificating on TV programs (such as Andrew Bolt on Insiders) as if their views were the only ones that mattered. Fortunately not many voters watch these programs - only other journos wanting another lazy story. The pundits are predicting an easy win for the Labor Party in the upcoming WA election - this must cheer up the Libs no end! I am predicting a close call.

By: Kevin Rennie

Kevin Rennie — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

My blog post last week was “Topend Poll Setback for Rudd?”. I expected a sizeable swing but would have to replace” setback” with “shock”. The strange thing is that few of those who switched from Labor were voting for Terry Mills or a change of government. Watch Labor View From Bayside for a longer analysis later in the week.

By: Lisa Crago

Lisa Crago — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

What no one seems to be giving much weight to is that over 40% DID NOT VOTE. So add that to the informals and you have a sernario that political pundits don’t consider; people deciding for themselves that turning up to a polling booth is now their perogitive.
No election has ever had such a poor turnout. While Oz has always been known for fairly accurate pre polling due to compolsory voting, it might be time to add to polling questions ‘do you intend to vote in the next election?’ No one holds a gun to your head to make you vote in this country. Could the citizens protest and change the compulsory voting system in this country by simply not turning up on polling day? I do believe this is possible, I have thought about this for a while and this ‘no show’ in the NT might be just the start of things to come. V V interested in others opinions on this; crag0014@flinders.edu.au

By: James O'Neill

James O'Neill — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

It confirms my long held suspicion that most of what passes for the Australian commentariat do no more than interview their typewriters (or the computer equivalent). This is not only true of their embarrassing inability to give even the faintest suggestion of a major swing against the Labor Party in the NT. It permeates their reporting on subjects as diverse as Iraq, Afghanistan and China. Most are completely ahistorical in their approach, feeding off the latest propaganda handout whether it be from some government source or a business PR handout. A recent case in point: the naming by the FBI of Bruce Ivins as the source of the anthrax mailings in September 2001. How many “journalists” pointed out that we were told with equal (and equally unlikely) certainty that the “anthrax attacks” were probably sourced in Iraq and were further proof of Saddam Hussein’s links with al Quaeda? Precisely none. All that earlier nonsense simply went down the rabbit hole never to be mentioned again in case it embarrasses our worthy commentariat.

By: Marilyn

Marilyn — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

I knew it would be tough because the CLP ran on "bash the blacks" platforms and that is always a winner up there.

I also knew the ALP would get a kicking because of the 3 week run up.

James you are right about all of that other stuff, the MSM in Australia is beyond woeful.

By: davo

davo — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000

It’s time to scrap the Press galleries. Simple. No dodgy relationships, compromised analyses, navel-gazing and stupidity. INstead, a professional class of journalists, probably who have little to no contact with each other, and who are in a revolving situation. No-one should spend more than 3 years reporting on this. How do you think we end up with trash like Milne, Ramsay and the like - and they aren’t even the worst… (but it is rather bottom of the barrel stuff).