The Greens oppose the CPRS not because it is too weak, but because it will point Australia in the wrong direction with little prospect of turning it around in the timeframe within which emissions must peak, says Senator Christine Milne.
Can we trust the ABS’s job numbers any longer?
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Are the monthly figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics a bit more rubbery than they should be? And is the Rudd Government and specifically Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner reaping the downside of their miserly $20 million or so cut in the budget of the Australian Bureau of Statistics Budget in the May budget? Poor or unreliably figures can mean bad policy. The cut has forced the ABS to change the frequency and size of its samples for a range of statistics and increase the uncertainty and their reliability until economists and others get get a handle on the impact of the changes over the next few months. The question arises with this morning’s July employment figures from the Bureau, which created more confusion than clarity. Nearly 11,000 new jobs were created in July as there was slump in full-time employment growth, instead of a fall, as some analysts had suspected might happen. Complicating the figures was a noticeable cut in the number of new jobs created in the surprise upswing in June.O originally the ABS put that at 29,800. That was cut to around 22,000 with revisions to the jobs data for May and June, so it’s almost certain that the July figures will be re-jigged. The new sample-based survey surprised with 53,700 new full time jobs created (which is a little odd given the talk of retrenchments at some large and small companies) and 42,800 part time jobs were lost (which does fit with some anecdotal evidence). But interest rate strategist at Macquarie Bank Rory Robertson blasted the figures in a note written after their release at 11.30 am:
It will be three weeks or so until we see the first set of statistics for retail sales and building approvals prepared under the new regime. Both have been showing the damage the tighter monetary policy, higher oil prices and the extra bank rate rises, have been having on the consumption parts of the economy. |
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5 Comments
This funding cut, under the cover of `economic rationalism`, is politically motivated: it allows the Government to accept some figures that suit their agenda, and selectively reject others, citing `volatility`. Employment, inflation and GDP figures have been massaged by governments of either persuasion, for their own ends, for decades, but this is truly machiavellian! Hats off to the Rudd regime and their economic conservatives! Notice, that the only sector not subject to cuts is Defence, Security and Police force. Quite right, you can`t let the rabble go around unsupervised not only in the OZ, but also in `our` backyard of Solomon Islands and East Timor.
“Rubbery” doesn’t even start to describe the employment figures fiddle when they haven’t, for many years now, given a realistic picture of employment meaning you were able to support yourself financially with just one job. Every other conjured statistic and qualifying adjective is a politically-motivated fiddle and needs to be legislated against so that the real situation with unemployment is known, recognised, and brought to the attention of the voting public.
This is the first i have heard of the dramatic cut to the funding of the ABS. Whether it be employment statistics or another genre, in my view robust and independently commissioned statistics, made available to the public are as much a foundation of good democracy as an independent judicial system and free media. Very disappointing.
From 1983 on the rules for counting unemployment were repeatedly changed, this to mislead the electorate. In NSW we saw the Carr government change the rules for counting hospital waiting lists to hide the truth.
When the Rudd government cut funding to the ABS concern was immediately raised that this would make it more difficult to track unemployment levels. These figures must be viewed in this light. Are they real, are they out of date, or are they contrived?
ancient history. government have been fiddling the definitions of this data for yonks. rory needs to have a good look at the trend data he’s whingeing about.