Top StoriesMay’s sharp fall in jobless numbers added to the greenness of the ‘recovery’ (or less bad) thesis; overnight June’s unemployment figures were so awful that they could have stunted at least, the wavering shoots.
Costellogy: Why Turnbull should call Pete’s bluff
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As expected, Peter Costello’s complete absence from this week’s shenanigans has sent Costellogists into a frenzy of speculation. It’s fair to say that, despite the best efforts of News Ltd editors, the common view in the press gallery has been that Costello left politics the day after the 2007 election, it’s just that he hasn’t got around to checking out yet. But that’s not to say senior Liberals haven’t been urging Costello to stay and lead them, and apparently that urging has ramped up considerably in recent weeks. This will be immensely satisfying for Costello. They didn’t want him while Howard was around. Now they’re begging him. You couldn’t blame him if he had just the faintest trace of contempt for his colleagues, and not be in any hurry to halt their mendicancy. Let ‘em sweat, and grovel, and plead, while he suns himself on a Pacific beach. His refusal of the World Gold Council job “revealed” by Seven last night is old news. He rejected that months ago. Sources say it was for two reasons — the move to London was out of the question given one of his kids is still at school in Melbourne, and because he didn’t think it was appropriate for a man of his standing. In short, he gave gold the finger. Still, with the man’s hermitic silence, Costellogy is a tough gig these days, and we take what we can get. The reasoning of the senior Liberals who want him back is straightforward — he’s their one shot at winning in 2010, no matter how improbable that is. Moreover, he’s more likely to stop them going backwards. If the Coalition loses more seats in 2010, it’s facing a decade in Opposition. Under Nelson, they’re going backwards at warp speed. Costello brings two other things as well, although both have caveats. He would short-circuit the ongoing conservative-moderate/Nelson-Turnbull tension that will otherwise wrack the party until the election. The caveat is that Turnbull would still be there, and Turnbull wants to be Prime Minister more than Costello and Nelson combined. He also comes with the cachet of better economic times, the sunny uplands of the early years of the resources boom. The caveat is that Labor has succeeded in painting those years as ones of missed opportunities. However, even with the publication date of his book being brought forward a couple of weeks, that still leaves us — and, more acutely, his party — with six weeks of agonising. After his efforts this week — including a truly savage mauling on The 7.30 Report — Nelson’s no longer in the tumbrel, he’s in the guillotine and they’re raising the blade. How long will we have to hold our breath waiting for it to drop? Pete only knows. Unless Malcolm Turnbull takes his fate into his own hands. Sitting back and watching the Costello speculation must be exquisitely painful for Turnbull, cruelled of the leadership by the Right last November, forced to watch as Nelson has stumbled about the place ever since. If he initiated a spill now, it would at least flush Costello out, demanding he make a decision on Turnbull’s timetable, not his own. On previous form, Costello would beg off. If he joined the contest, it would be the end of Turnbull’s ambitions until 2011, but that would have happened anyway. Or Turnbull could sit back like the rest of us and wait for Hamlet Prince of Malvern to make a decision, then make his move if Costello bails out. But Turnbull is the sort of bloke who likes the initiative. And it would put an end to the agonising suspense of waiting for the blade to drop.
Crikey Editor Jonathan Green and Crikey’s Canberra correspondent Bernard Keane talk the day’s events in the national capital. Visit the podcast page on our website at 4pm AEST to download or listen. |
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25 Comments
Costello has not been exactly knocked over by business interests seeking his services,as he expected. So it maybe that business boss’s don’t think much of him. And the way he allowed Howard to use him as a door mat for so long, their view is understandable.
I really don’t buy it when commentators say that whoever will be relegated to a ‘decade of opposition.’ I’m sure that people said that about the ALP in November 2004.
Good article though. I’m pretty sure that he’ll go, he’s just taking his time to irritate Turnbull. I like that in the man.
Spot on Phil. I remember the comments far and wide in 2004 that Latham had delivered the ALP a guaranteed two if not three terms in opposition. Past practice would indicate that a government is easier to bring down in a position of perceived strength (such as control of both houses), and all an opposition needs is a leader that the electorate considers a safe choice. Costello is their best hope by a mile to bring the party back to the middle and secure a decent chance of winning.
For the bloke who claims responsibility for 11 years of supposedly outstanding economic management, it’s truly bizarre that Costello can’t seem to make a decision about whether he’s staying or going. Having shown himself to be a bit of a dud leadership-wise by never taking the initiative either late in the Howard era or immediately after it, and now dragging this out further as Nelson’s position starts to look seriously threatened, his do-nothing approach will be a major albatross around his neck if he ever does step up to the Liberal leadership. The contrast with Howard’s tilts at the leadership in the 80’s is amazingly stark. Similarly, the contrast with Keating taking on Hawke and winning at the second go also couldn’t be bigger. As a Labor voter, I’d be happier with Cossie finally deciding to go for it and getting up than with Turnbull having a crack, but Liberal voters who actually want their team to achieve something need to be getting their message to Cossie out there. Shit or get off the pot.
Well Gary Carroll, you discount the $2.1 million/annum offer (> x10 times his parliamentary salary) that he he knocked back 5 months ago? I know!: he probably figured they would find him out within 2 months and fire him for incompetence?
Still, two months at that wage is $300,000+. That’s double the annual salary of a backbencher.
I make the “decade of opposition” call because the electorate seems historically disinclined to throw out governments after less than a decade, but they come closest after the first term.
I also thought the “two-term victory” calls after the 2004 election were mistaken, just as they were after the 1993 election.
I think Hewson succinctly summed up the problem with Costello - he just hasn’t got the balls to take on the leadership. Not now, not in the past and not in the future - unless he has a personality bypass.
I think Hewson best summed up the problem with Costello when he said Costello hasn’t got the balls to lead the Liberal Party. He never had the gonads to challenge Howard when the Libs were in power; he hasn’t got the balls (or the will) to lead the Libs out of their current electoral vacuum, and unless he has a personality transplant, he won’t grow them any time in the future.
Good article. Tell me everyone; in a good old shoot out in the Coalition coral; which of the two candidates would anyone pin their faith in to lead the land of Oz out of an almighty nightmare? Costello would keep on biting his pillow in an agony of indecision. Also, the old saying, ‘when two dogs are fighting over the same bone, frequently a third dog comes up and grabs it. ’ Which is a pretty horrible thought given that people liike Tony Abbott are around.
The Labor “almighty nightmare” Venise? The Ruddmeister incubus? If you were a betting girl then head down to The Camberwell branch of the Libs and join up; campaign worker for the Opposition leader at the 2011 general election and the staffer in the new PM’s Department of PM & C, a heartbeat away from power in the bosom of your beloved PC………Keep Tony out!
Turnbull is not a leader of men. Intelligent yes but politically inept and lacking the abilty to connect with people. In the Republican schemozzle that Turnbull led he was outgunned by Abbott and unable to pull his disparate forces together. Costello and Abbott, who go back a long way to their Unversity days know Turnbull would be a big Left turn for the Liberals and a disaster. Its the Conservative base that needs mobilising and ‘Howards battlers’. The next election is there to be taken. Those miners in the Latrobe Valley fired a warning shot across the bow of the good ship Rudd at the Gippsland poll.
Rudd will go to the next election with Iemma and the farce in NSW unfolding, the MurrayDarling debacle ongoing thanks to Victorian Labor, and the Australian econonomy in tatters. The AFR to-day is querying a recession. Sh*t! I thought it would take Swan 3 years to do that.
JamesK: WTF is it about you that you are always knocking my comments without reading what I have said? I loathe Peer Costello. I loathe the man. I loathe his smirk, and I loathe his gutlessness. (Also I’m not a fan of M. Turnbull. The world is too full of very rich men who aren’t content to rest with their millions, they have to have people loving them for their politics as well. He is about user friendly as the nearest Northern Territory 12 metre crocodile. Is there any evidence to suggest he has the ability to lead people? -apart from yes men-A point I was questioning in my first comment). If I wanted to be near the twit, I’d walk into his office, which is just down the street from me.
The only reason I’m not writing this from the slammer, is because a dear old man threw 1/2 a dozen eggs at his office window, thus beating me to the draw. Unfortunately he was caught because he had thoughtfully put up his shingle prior to doing the deed.
I’d rather have a ‘Labor nightmare’ than endure the torture of living under the iron jockstrap of the remnants of JWH’s thugs. While we are at it. Pray tell me what is wrong about the third dog hypothesis? Go suck an old sock until you can quote me properly. And if that f*cking Toy Abbott should turn out to be the third dog, I am prepared to leave this strange benighted country FOR BLO*DY EVER. Finally go back to Bernard’s article on the IOC. You’ll find that I actually agree with you. Of course, I did actually read your comment.
Bernard: Mendicancy; is that as in being a mendicant; or as being mendacious? I can’t seem to find it.
Cheers
V.
Venise, I was just responding in good faith to your question:”Tell me everyone; in a good old shoot out in the Coalition coral; which of the two candidates would anyone pin their faith in to lead the land of Oz out of an almighty nightmare?” If an old Labor hack like Nelson can become leader of the Liberal Party surely you could become chief-of-staff to your local member and future PM? Where’s your ambition Venise? A smirk could become a cheeky grin……
Bernard - you’ve sold me, old son. Costello is likely the next leader of the party. I say this because ‘The Press Gallery’ has decided he won’t be. The Press Gallery is about as relevant as Lamarckism. If they say it, it’s probably wrong.
Amid all the speculation about his future plans, why have we heard so little from Costello himself?
We don’t need to worry about the coalition - they will self-destruct in due course. The worrisome thing is that we thought we were getting a knight in shining armour, in Our Kev, and even though he keeps on telling us it is early days, only been in the seat five minutes, blah blah blah … . . it looks like he is also all mouth, no trousers. Every step forward that is available to him is also a kamikaze dive, and he is not brave enough to act on what the people are telling him. DO SOMETHING. We don’t mind because we know that anything that happens next is bound to hurt.
Rudd will be fine. I’m sure he’s got a World Peace tour or something similar in the works to rejuvenate the polls.
I’ve referred the Ruddmeister, jokingly, as an incubus but with your obvious predilections Hilton, you can speak for yourself.
I’m no masochist.
Preliminary point JamesK:
When I referred to an ‘An almighty nightmare,’ I meant our problems with over-population and Global Variation!. Although I have written else where about the vain hope there could be a bi-lateral approach to ETS. I didn’t mention it in this 2nd blog.
Point 2. Regrettably, throughout a colourful life, I’ve been inhibited about putting a smile/smirk on the face of the Oz tiger. The pre-referendum and post -referendum engagement period is not nearly as prolonged as it could be. After all, who wants to have a heated discussion on a desk -top, or on a table? Especially when an overseas fact-finding mission can reveal how the great game is practiced, with far greater finesse in the various European Capitals. Ditto the UK-occasionally-. Such is the keeness of these foreign political players, they frequently invite overseas guests to lavish dinners, accompanied by the greatest of French wines. (I hasten to add that I’m always pushing the home product). One of the hazards involved with this style of combat in Oz, has been known to have been invited to a post-election barbeque; here one finds cold sausages, cardboard Reisling and a endless supply of beer! Shudder, shudder. An even worse outcome is a nosh-up at maccas.
And, as my great-aunt Maria Paz Dolores used to instruct me. “Venise, I abjure you, never, never have anything to do with a politician. They are different to the rest of us. Be warned I shall think the less of you if you do!
That’s a beautiful quote (and piece of advice) Venise.
Your great-aunt was wise.
One small quibble - did she possibly ‘adjure you’, rather than ‘abjure you’? ‘Abjure’ seems a bit harsh and presumptuous, unless she knew you’d already been having to dos with pollies and this was her final final warning
Bernard Keane wrote on Friday regarding Peter Costello’s refusal of a World Gold Council job as “he gave gold the finger”. This was not the first time he inserted the digit into gold, as anyone who was working as a geologist or gold miner in 1997 remembers. The inexperienced and wet-behind-the ears new treasurer made an extraordinary gaffe in blurting out the Reserve Bank’s intention to sell off its gold reserves. The result was that the gold price crashed and burned overnight, and took the mineral exploration industry with it. For five years the industry went into recession, and only began a slow recovery in 2002. The great treasurer never acknowledged or apologised for his blunder, instead giving us the GST which now means five lots of tax every year instead of only one. Add to that his smirk and school bully persona, and you have to wonder at the desperation of the Libs to seriously consider resurrecting this political corpse. Better to exhume Bob Menzies and prop him up as the Liberal Party leader. They’re both dead anyways.
Nick, Sorry to be late, I’ve only just got home. Oops, I think she adjured me, now I think on it. She was a forceful lady, but never vindictive.
Cheers
Venise
This is a very elderly piece of Costellology now. Costellology goes off within a day of manufacture and it is time for a fresh version of the story that has nothing in it other than a haze of spite and ego. Miranda Devine’s breathtaking birth order analysis in today’s SMH is a stunning example of the utter rubbish that can be written on this subject.