Comments on: Mackerras: A double dissolution in 2009? http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/07/29/mackerras-a-double-dissolution-in-2009/ now with extra source Sun, 12 Feb 2012 02:48:10 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: John http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/07/29/mackerras-a-double-dissolution-in-2009/#comment-5185 John Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-5185 In 2007 the Christian Democrats came close to half a quota (which would be a full quota in a double dissolution) so I don't think it's quite as clear cut. If they could get their nose ahead of the last lib/nat, one of Fred Nile's ilk could be in Canberra. Halving the quota can have strange effects. In 2007 the Christian Democrats came close to half a quota (which would be a full quota in a double dissolution) so I don’t think it’s quite as clear cut. If they could get their nose ahead of the last lib/nat, one of Fred Nile’s ilk could be in Canberra. Halving the quota can have strange effects.

]]> By: Phil http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/07/29/mackerras-a-double-dissolution-in-2009/#comment-5186 Phil Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-5186 I tend to disagree on a couple of notes. <br /><br />Firstly, Family First would note receive the same preferences as in 2004. Fielding would probably lose and the odds are that a SA FF candidate would be more likely to succeed than Fielding. Secondly, also on SA, Xenophon, having received a full quota in his own right, along with likely favourable preferences, would probably drag in a second SA Independent if he ran on a ticket.<br /><br />Apart from that, nice analysis.<br /><br />P.S John, in the 2007 election, the Christian Dems only managed 0.1378 of a quota in NSW, their best state. They would be unlikely to win any seats, even in a DD. I tend to disagree on a couple of notes.

Firstly, Family First would note receive the same preferences as in 2004. Fielding would probably lose and the odds are that a SA FF candidate would be more likely to succeed than Fielding. Secondly, also on SA, Xenophon, having received a full quota in his own right, along with likely favourable preferences, would probably drag in a second SA Independent if he ran on a ticket.

Apart from that, nice analysis.

P.S John, in the 2007 election, the Christian Dems only managed 0.1378 of a quota in NSW, their best state. They would be unlikely to win any seats, even in a DD.

]]> By: davo http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/07/29/mackerras-a-double-dissolution-in-2009/#comment-5187 davo Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-5187 Half a quota in a half senate election is still only half a quota in a full one, even allowing for double the seats. Half a quota in a half senate election is still only half a quota in a full one, even allowing for double the seats.

]]> By: Jack H Smit http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/07/29/mackerras-a-double-dissolution-in-2009/#comment-5188 Jack H Smit Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-5188 I have no bone to grind at all with the number crunching of Mr Mackerras - it even looks feasible, but the reason and the timing at the end of 2009 remains a mystery. Why would we do such a thing at the end of 2009, Malcolm? Would three months from now, based on climate change issues, be not much more likely? I have no bone to grind at all with the number crunching of Mr Mackerras - it even looks feasible, but the reason and the timing at the end of 2009 remains a mystery. Why would we do such a thing at the end of 2009, Malcolm? Would three months from now, based on climate change issues, be not much more likely?

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