Gippsland votes against the tough decisions
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What a shock result in Gippsland! A deeply rural electorate, one that repeatedly re-elected the profoundly thick Peter McGauran, has returned a Nationals candidate yet again. What did Rex Mossop used to say? “I don’t want to sound incredulous but I can’t believe it.” Incidentally, Malcolm Mackerras called an easy Nats win in Crikey back in April. The orthodoxy is that petrol prices produced the anti-Government swing in Gippsland, although Crikey’s Gippsland insider stresses the lamentable state of the local ALP. Personally, in deference to Brendan Nelson, I’d like to declare the outcome a victory for the Traralgon Post Office. But let’s stick with petrol. Suitably encouraged, perhaps Nelson will start bidding up his 5 cent a litre excise proposal to 10, 20, maybe even 38 cents a litre. Hell, why not subsidise the stuff? Someone needs to think of the Taragos. Nelson’s declaration that he will oppose an emissions trading scheme — without knowing what the Government will propose, indeed without even having seen the Garnaut interim report or the Government’s Green or White Papers — is useful. It entirely exposes the vacuity of his leadership and puts the pressure on Kevin Rudd to show how seriously he takes climate change. Nelson isn’t the only one with resource company stooges and greenhouse denialists in his party. Labor ranks contain plenty of people who don’t see what all the fuss is about, or think global warming is a Green fiction, or who are willing to work hard to serve the interests of Australia’s resources sector. A number of them are in Cabinet, which must sign off on an ETS model at the end of the year or early in 2009. The Opposition has already started a scare campaign, in which evil environmentalists are not merely depriving Aussie families of the basic right to drive a car down Struggle Street to get to work, but will send their jobs off to Third World countries where the only emissions trading is the annual village belching contest. If the Government summons the courage to implement a trading scheme capable of actually doing something, it will need its best communicators firing back. This might mean some changes in personnel are required.
Wayne Swan’s competence is no longer questioned, and the days of his being under pressure in the Chamber are long gone, but Julia Gillard is the Government’s deadliest weapon. You can tell by the distressed reaction of the Coalition as soon as Dorothy Dixers are directed to her. IR, no matter how important to the economy, is now a low-profile issue. With Nick Minchin still declaring that WorkChoices was “the right thing to do,” the task of painting the Opposition as still committed to the Howard IR agenda doesn’t require a genius. Gillard could more profitably be used to present the economic case for the ETS and expose the rent-seeking and market distortion that lies at the heart of the anti-ETS campaign. It’s also becoming clear that Peter Garrett and Penny Wong should swap jobs. Garrett is locked into an uncomfortable role of having to negotiate compromises, accept second-best solutions and follow bureaucratic processes in the Environment portfolio. But when he gets onto the topic of climate change, he can free up his shoulders and swing hard into the Opposition, and loves it. Giving Garrett responsibility for climate change over the process-focussed Wong will stop the whingeing that Labor has forced him to sell out and provide an enthusiastic salesman. Garrett’s value to the Government is maximised when he can participate in the issues with which he is so strongly identified by voters, not when he is hidden from them. In responding to the Gippsland result, the Prime Minister said the Government would keep making tough decisions. Hopefully Rudd knows perfectly well that’s a load of rubbish. If he thinks he’s made any tough decision in the last six months, then he’s in deep trouble. Along with the rest of us. |
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19 Comments
Ross (and Marilyn given your anti-Gallery views) have a look at Peter Hartcher’s analysis in the SMH today. Very rigorous and shrewd analysis.
There almost as many doubters of AGW in the Labor Party as there are in Libs - Rudd has got no chance of getting any sort of tough ETS sceme off the ground - there are too many Labor MP’s on too small majorities to let him. The libs will keep up the jobs exporting line and put the case that every country should be in any ETS scheme. It IS called GLOBAL Warming you know
It might be stretching the bow a bit, but just consider that all the climatologists and environmental scientists are correct and the Liberal/National Party and political journalists are wrong and climate change is a real phoenomenon.
It means that our grandchildren and great-grandchildren are going to have a real fight on their hands just to stay alive. Any thoughts of maintaining the economy as we know it and miners’ jobs in Newcastle and the Latrobe Valley will have evaporated long beforehand.
When the children look back and see how any chance to alleviate the situation was squandered in a short-term play for political power, they will curse those responsible.
Perhaps Brendan Nelson should be asked “Why do you want to kill children?”
Marilyn is absolutetly right though. Most (not all) gallery journalists lose touch with reality - they follow the pack, they blow little things (Iguana -3 weeks later -come on) out of proportion. Unlike Politicians, they have very little contact with the public, and when they do, their short comings are embarrassingly apparent.
Rotating journalists would be good. Good journalism remains good journalism, and some press gallerians (Laura Tingle, Bernard Keane (? Are you in the Gallery, Bernard?) are good - (there’s a coupe of others, as well.), Most though, are self-important, self-deluded hacks, crafting poorly constructed sentences to wrap last night’s vege scraps in.
I agree with Bernard Keane’s assessment of the various talents of Peter Garrett and Penny Wong. I would also suggest that the Aboriginal Affairs portfolio should have, as well as its female minister, a male assistant and Peter Garrett would be the perfect choice. He is passionate about Aboriginal people and it would provide the opportunity to use his considerable talents appropriately.
Crikey Bernard, what’s going on? You start with your trypical anti-Lib/anti-Nat rant and end up giving a backhander to Rudd. You are right, he has not made a hard decision since he has been elected. He has pandered to a few minority interests, and then done things that don’t cost. Kyoto is a crock, a well meaning one but a crock nonetheless, and anyone who thinks it makes a scrap of difference is kidding themselves. That said, i do agree with signing and saying sorry, but they were easy. The hard thing would be to actually do something for Australians that is meaningful - the Opec Parity system on fuel proces should be abandonded immediately and the government should just take the hit. It has a fat surplus and I deserve some of it - instead I am just getting slugged by this closeted socialist government.
And please ALP, use Julia Gillard more. She’s a godo reason not to vote Labor.
I thought I heard somewhere that the biggest swings were in the mining areas. This I believe would be Labor voters turning. I do not think at this stage that Labor has anything to fear, except from the Unions. As far as the Coalition and their supporters are concerned, they will go on as they do now, believing their own spin. They appear to be great as seeing things as they would like, instead of as it is.
I find it hard to believe at the end of the day, that most people think that they would be any better off under Mr. Howard.
We now live in a global economy which I would be surprised to find out if anyone government is in control and could make change.
One thing about economics, every time a solution to problems are found, a new playing field evolves and the rules change. Nothing stays the same.
Almost right again, Bernard. Wayne Swan’s competence is no loger questioned in Canberra. You fortgot to mention the reason - it is because his incompetence has been established - our federal Treasurer is a dill.
closeted socialist? please! again it becomes how bleedingly obvious that the ‘two party’ state system we live in is absolutely flawed. vote for a party that supports this side of the big end of town or the party that represents that side of the big end of town. true democracy is participatory and representative, our system is neither. as for the outcome, it’s easy for the lib/nats to push thru the right wing media, the petrol prices malarkey riding on discontent that they actually manufactured thru poor economic policies. the bottom line is that we have to move away from the greed is good mantra blowing out the rear ends of the rich n famous and focus on delivering real economic outcomes that place the environment and our future at the top of the list.
I would have thought thar perhaps the Liberal Party standing alongside the Nationals (the first time for a few years) and giving their preferences to the National candidate, may have had a bit to do with the so called swing.
Labor were never in the hunt in this neck of the woods to even get close to winning. I also agree with Marilyn that perhaps journalist should take a break occassionally.
We should probably look less at the papers and start to use our own brains for a change.
I can say as a pround member of the Global Warming skeptics - you guys at Crikey have no idea of the opposition out in voter land of Carbon trading and the costs that will be put on ordinary voters. Global warming might make interesting dinner party conversation, but when the guy in the Ute that drives 100km a day commuting in from the outer suburbs gets hit in the pocket - hes going to find out more about the holes in the science of global warming - and there are plenty of skeptics out there to feed him the information. We get a totally one-sided biased view of the so called global warming science - it will be different when people are paying. You guys at Crikey will find out what a minority you are in.
Now one has commented yet on how many of the voters who appear to have deserted the Labor Party were normal Liberal Party voters who last time thought Labor was preferable to the Country Party.
Wrong, I think Bernard. Much as you would wish it so, the by-election result was correctly judged by the media other than you and few Crikey types as a bit of a drubbing. You quote Mungo but perhaps you should see his column below yours!
“The Gippsland by-election was a dreadful result for the government, and there is no point in pretending otherwise.” Mungo!
I’m still convinced Rudd’s the federal version of Peter Beattie. He’s now picked up on Pete’s ‘tough decision’ line that was always delivered (with a droop to the bottom lip) whenever water supplies ran out, the power went off and health services were downright toxic. It’s all a re-run of Beattie-bunkum with the hick community cabinets, education revolution (PB’s Smart State spin is still reverbrating in South Carolina) thestate.com/warthen/story/374441.html and the string of ‘tough decisions’ Rudd has foreshadowed on climate change, international uncertainty and nuclear proliferation treaties. We’ll know if he’s singing from the same hymn book when he delivers an apology - he has?
Unless both sides of politics are prepared to face up to the realities of the high cost of petrol by explaining the laws of supply and demand and introducing the idea of “Peak Oil” into the public domain, every election is going to be a revolving door unless each party decides to out bid the other until petrol is tax free. Then where to for an encore? We have just told our neighbours to cease subsidising the cost of fuel to reduce their consumption and until we have a pricing mechanism that promotes our move away from a dependency on oil we will continue using it until the desert sands give up the last drop with nothing to replace it as our primary energy source. It the past 150 years, but more so in the past 50 we have squandered a resource that has been far too cheap to use and today still costs less than the bottle of soft drink or water you buy at the same service station. Anyone from outer space looking at our behaviour must be cracking themselves laughing. If you want to save more than 10% on you petrol bill take your foot of the gas and brake or get a more fuel efficient car.
Word from my previously Labor voting Gippsland friends is yes, the dismal state of the local ALP, but also the desal plant. Lots of very unhappy people.
Oh those “profoundly thick” Gippslanders! An ETS, by 2012, of course was Howard policy last November
but now (according to Mr. Keane),despite the Coalition once again endorsing emissions trading to tackle climate change, Brendan Nelson’s “I suspect there’s a high probability that we won’t support what the Government chooses to do” translates into opposing an (any) EFT.
Of course, unlike Gippsland, you’re not unbalanced are you Mr. Keane?
Even the sensible Laura Tingle claimed yesterday that the swing against the ALP in Gippsland was a big kick for Rudd, can’t see who the hell would believe that tripe but the entire press gallery said the same thing. I know their working conditions and think the air in that high altitude position in the house affects their thinking powers.
Even worse the dopey pack claimed that when Rudd also lost Mayo and Higgins he should basically bury himself - except of course the chances of winning either seat are Buckleys and none.
I think the press gallery should have rotating journalists because they all become a bit demented after a few years.
And actually Rudd has made decisions that the people in nats. territory hate. The apology, the amounts of cash being spent in those communities (even if you hate the intervention as racist crap like I do I like the money finally being spent on services), ratifying Kyoto is deeply hated by the nats, cuts in the welfare for the wealthy is stopping some of the silly cows having manicures and facials - oh woe is us.
In every paper across the country the middle classes are whining. We want our Toorak tractors and cheaper petrol, we demand our facials, we must have our holidays and so on.
It’s truly a pathetic sight to behold.
I am indeed in the Gallery, Davo. I don’t know about the high altitude to which Marilyn refers but it’s certainly freezing cold here. And thanks for excepting me, but I suspect I have plead guilty to being a “self-important, self-deluded hack” as well.