Wall St was down 94 overnight, its biggest fall in a month, while the local market is down 66.
A Newspoll too far for Brendan Nelson
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Events have suddenly turned against Brendan Nelson. Nelson was riding high – well, much higher than he had been – on petrol and Belinda Neal. His team was performing effectively in Parliament. Nelson had never got a particularly easy go from the press gallery but, even putting aside some outright cheerleading from News Ltd, he was being treated with a bit more respect, even if his populism was sneered at. Tuesday’s Newspoll messed that right up, and the tone of the coverage coming out of the Press Gallery is changing. And Nelson’s party room is leaking against him. Phil Coorey’s article on a possible revolt over the Coalition’s delay to the same-sex discrimination reform package focussed on Senator Sue Boyce. Crikey understands that Boyce, the progressive ex-journalist and businesswoman who replaced Santo Santoro last year, was not the source of the article. Wilson Tuckey attacked Boyce in the party-room over her concerns about the delay, calling her a “bully” for considering crossing the floor. Ironic from Ironbar. Moreover, the Coalition’s tactic in delaying or blocking bills has started to turn against it, with David Uren in The Oz picking up the economic vandalism theme the Government has been repeatedly hammering. John Faulkner’s office has also ensured that everyone is aware of the Coalition’s outrageous decision to refer the Government political donations reform to a committee that won’t report until 30 June 2009 (yes, that’s not a misprint). Any number of arguments can be mounted about blocking various tax measures, but the decision to block the Faulkner bill looks plainly self-interested. Its tactics in Parliament this week haven’t been much better. After rattling the Government in the previous session two weeks ago, the Opposition started solidly on Monday – Belinda Neal was too rich a topic for it to be otherwise – but on Tuesday and yesterday they were all over the place, with no consistent theme, no clear plan of attack and no attempt to target weaker ministers. Any reference to something faintly connected with Belinda Neal can still induce operatic howls of laughter from the Coalition ranks, but Kevin Rudd has a looked a lot more relaxed as he goes through his paperwork by the Dispatch Box. And while the tactic of getting Coalition backbenchers to ask questions might be enjoyed by the MPs themselves, who get a few seconds in the spotlight, it deprives the Opposition’s frontbench of exposure and experience, which most of them sorely need. Until now, the Opposition’s performance in Parliament has been one of its few strong points. Unless they refine their tactics, or find something else on Belinda Neal, even that is going to start to look weak. Paul Neville’s affection for Bundaberg Rum got a run in Question Time yesterday. I once had the pleasure (insert irony indicator here) of attending a meeting between Neville and a senior Minister of the previous Government. “In my electorate,” intoned Neville stolidly , “there’s a famous boatrace called the Bundy Thunder…” “Better than the Bundy Chunder,” quipped the Minister. Perhaps. |
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19 Comments
I smell the odour of the Minchin trail in the Senate. This blocking of budget legislation will be his dorky idea of hindering the Government for no other reason than to obstruct, be a pain in the backside and for what? At the end of the day what will it acheive? It will not improve the Coalition standing with the majority of the electorate, time and again there petty, cheap shots have been given the heave ho in resulting polls. Of course as Minchin is running the Libs from behind the scenes, so as he doesn’t have to take the flak, he really is setting Nelson up for the mother of all falls. Perhaps he has decided Ms Bishop is his best bet to take over, what a shambles.
Bernard you are a little too generous I think in your praise of the Coalitions performance in the House at Question time. Frankly I really dont see a decent performer at all. And the prize for the most improved Minister goes to….Swanee!!!! The guy is starting to love it, cant keep him away from the despatch box. On ya Wayne, now giving as good as he gets
People, people, people. Let’s just calm down a bit, shall we? Polls, especially polls years out from the next election, really don’t mean much. History tells us they mean even less in the first term of a government, as one-term governments are a rare phenomenon as far as Australian Federal politics is concerned. Whether Nelson is polling 2%, 20% or 200% doesn’t mean much as far as the next twelve months is concerned, and that’s a hell of a long time in politics. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - the Libs best opportunity is to spend this term re-engaging with their base and with Australians who might give them a vote. They need to work out what they stand for, and how they’re going to distinguish themselves from the later days (or perhaps all) of Howard’s Prime-Ministership (and I write this knowing that Tony Papafils and John James will vocally disagree). They need to limit losses at the next election, but they shouldn’t really expect to get close or win unless circumstances really change between now and then. They need to have a leader who can bring the party together and come up with a clear message about what the party stands for. Next term, they need to identify the team which will look like an alternative government, but there’s no point trying too hard to do this now. Of course, they won’t do any of this, which suits me fine because I’m a Labor voter. They’ll continue to be poll-driven, reactive and shallow. And I’ll enjoy saying I told them so when Labor wins a third term, either under Rudd or Gillard.
Dave, why spoil the fun?. The board was on a roll and you came along and got all paternalistic.
The Liberal party does not need to “reconnect” . They need to organise and prepare to engage Rudd and Labor. They could win the next election. They were not a bad government (please no predictable Howardhater responses). Rudd may have to face a credibility gap between what he promised last November and what he can and will deliver. That can and should be exploited. Petrol and groceries do not seem to be responding to the RuddWatch strategy. Solar power has received an unexpected bodyblow and taxes are on the up. Rudd’s foreign policy is a questionable and the whales are still being harpooned. The Liberals have got some serious talent but you would be forgiven for doubting that since they found themselves in opposition
Oh. Doc Nelson. I thought you meant Doc Neeson. Bugger.
surely the government has the right to change the a senate committee is to report particularly as it will be a new senate
Thankyou Judith MacGill, for that small drop of comedy. It brought a smidgen of relief to a busy day.
Well, and in other words- NOTHING TO REPORT. Which leaves us with a big zero to examine, except the historical records of ONE TERM GOVERNMENTS. Regardless of the political scene, absolutely NO-ONE is going to vote for Brendan’s GIANT ‘Acreage’ above his eyebrows- over Rudd’s TINY CHIN. (And I’m not referring to a Chinese Dynasty here.)
“fat people” damn near killed me, but then I thought maybe Judith was referring to Doc Nelson’s concern over people having to choose between sausages on the one hand and chops on the other, holding up the true-blue right for people to eat both sausages and chops for dinner, which is certainly correlated with fatness I should imagine.
JamesK, you’re not wrong but you’re not right either. The last 30 years of Australian political history tends to suggest (and this is not absolutely true, but it’s generally been the trend) that the ALP is the natural party of government as far as a slim majority of Australians are concerned, unless they either stuff up economically (SA, Vic, WA in the 80’s) or get too arrogant (Keating). Liberal governments have only survived when they can keep convincing voters that the other side would be too arrogant (Howard, who also survived because of some wonderful economic circumstances which he didn’t do too much to maintain but equally didn’t stuff up either) or been able to run a scare campaign on economics (Kennett, whose Premiership was a lot shorter than might have been expected for someone of his charisma, and to an extent Howard). If the Libs can’t promote themselves as a genuinely superior product, they won’t win government. Labor just has to promote itself as at least no worse than the other mob. For the Libs to win, I really believe they need to have a clear vision for Australia, and be able to communicate this to voters (as Howard did in 96, when he highlighted the arrogance issues and promoted himself as being demonstrably more in touch with suburban Australia, aka ‘the Howard battlers’).
Dr. Nelson is the first Liberal leader to openly show his emotions when it comes to poor people, undernourished people, discriminated people, fat people, working mothers, pensioners and grandchildren. He should be praised for his ability to relate to societies weakest members, not pilloried for his hubris, his vote chasing or his opportunism, which have all decreased lately. Yes, it is true that Dr. Nelson has his faults, but doesn’t every leader have the right to a little time to develop his message and his constituency? Why is everyone so quick to call for Dr. Nelson’s head every time he stumbles? After all, in our society, even the weakest people have a right to life.
That can’t be right! In the Australian, Christian Kerr said that ‘sophisticates may sneer’ but Nelson had the mixture right, and that populism not policy was what was needed at the moment. If Newspoll’s right, Christian’s had his head up his arse. So what’s that thing between his shoulders?
Oh right.
Wow.
That boil should be be seen to.
I think I did, at various points.
Dave, I agree with the entirety of your post (except perhaps for the second half of the first sentence).
Tonight when someone sniggered at Nelson’s door-stop wave and then said Rudd looked like a nerd it occurred that rarely does a news or current affairs show in our loungeroom pass quietly. The last few weeks have sounded like State of Origin with Neal, Della B and the pineapple pair evoking disrespectful comments, some physically articulated: “what a rat bag, what a goose, tell is another one, that’s revolting, how could he and b**sh-t! And just when it was time to call order and discuss values and esteem along came Iemma. When you can’t say something sensible, say nothing, so I finished the washing up. Are ordinary working Australian families growing up or are our politicians just looking particularly ordinary right now?
Is presenting a small target from the ancient chinese martial art tradition of METOOISM?
Reading blogs around the country and Brenda Brenda’s insane emoting all over the shop is turning off even hard core liberal voters. As for the tactics in the senate, they beggar belief after the vandalism in that place by the coalition which is partly why they were dumped like a shower of shite last year.
How quickly the morons forget and with more revelations of intrigue and conspiracy, false reports to courts and so on coming out about Dr Haneef who broke the back of the hate mongering in this country with a popular revolt against Howard and Andrews, one would think Belinda Neal would be of little interest.
In fact, she is of little interest except to the tittle tattlers in the Daily Terror.
Fat people, Ms MacGill?
I wasn’t aware of Emo Man’s sympathy for the obese.
“For god’s SAKE Mr Rudd - do you REALLY understand what it’s like being FAT when food prices are SO HIGH? This very night, there’s fat people out there across Australia queued up in supermarkets, pushing double-sized trolleys with five cartons of soft drink and a dozen packets of chips in the back… or waiting in a line at the KFC drive-through to get their bucket of chicken made with those eleven herbs and spices… each single one of them taxed by YOU!”
Istvan, who said “Bring Christian back?”
Can’t agree with you about the Coalition’s performance in the House, Bernard, nor with your comment that
their frontbench need exposure and experience. Most of them have had years of experience and exposure which probably accounts for their comparative advantage over the relatively inexperienced government front benchers who are only now beginning to shake down in their new roles. It astonishes me that gallery commentators haven’t considered this in commending the Coalition for the strength of their performances.
They may perform well in the sense that they’re acting out a lot. But the punters know that’s all it is, an act. There’s no substance there. Particularly not with Nelson whose efforts to ingratiate himself with every underdog in the country is being rewarded with universal leg raising in opinion polls.