Comments on: US08: Obama may struggle against McCain http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/05/27/us08-obama-may-struggle-against-mccain/ now with extra source Sun, 22 Nov 2009 04:04:11 +1100 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: James O'Neill http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/05/27/us08-obama-may-struggle-against-mccain/#comment-624 James O'Neill Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-624 This is all very fine and hypothetical, but it ignores one huge factor from the 2004 election. Bush did not win in 2004. That election was stolen in a way that was so blatant that even Robert Mugabe would blush. This has been documented by writers such as Miller and Palast, although the mainstream media perpetuate the fiction that Bush was elected. There is no reason for Crikey to be a party to that deception. It is simply not possible to predict the outcome of the 2008 election because we do not yet know who the vote fixers want to win. Anybody who continues to believe that the US is a genuine democracy with fair elections is simply living in a fantasy land. This is all very fine and hypothetical, but it ignores one huge factor from the 2004 election. Bush did not win in 2004. That election was stolen in a way that was so blatant that even Robert Mugabe would blush. This has been documented by writers such as Miller and Palast, although the mainstream media perpetuate the fiction that Bush was elected. There is no reason for Crikey to be a party to that deception.
It is simply not possible to predict the outcome of the 2008 election because we do not yet know who the vote fixers want to win. Anybody who continues to believe that the US is a genuine democracy with fair elections is simply living in a fantasy land.

]]> By: DH http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/05/27/us08-obama-may-struggle-against-mccain/#comment-625 DH Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-625 Guy Rundle's worries about Obama's chances are misplaced. The betting is much more accurately predictive than the polls. On Betfair, in terms of probability as calculated from the betting odds, Obama is accelerating away from McCain for president. Clinton is a poor third. McCain is heading further south and Clinton is in a trough. http://tinyurl.com/3gedzo As for the Democrat nomination, Obama has a greater than 90% chance, Clinton less than 10% (not much better than Gore). Obama is again heading north, she's going south. http://tinyurl.com/4z97yh Guy Rundle’s worries about Obama’s chances are misplaced.

The betting is much more accurately predictive than the polls. On Betfair, in terms of probability as calculated from the betting odds, Obama is accelerating away from McCain for president. Clinton is a poor third. McCain is heading further south and Clinton is in a trough. http://tinyurl.com/3gedzo

As for the Democrat nomination, Obama has a greater than 90% chance, Clinton less than 10% (not much better than Gore). Obama is again heading north, she’s going south. http://tinyurl.com/4z97yh

]]> By: Michael Tomlinson http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/05/27/us08-obama-may-struggle-against-mccain/#comment-626 Michael Tomlinson Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-626 Quite right, DH. On Intrade you have to pay $57.60 for Obama and only $38.00 for McCain. You can pick up Hillary for a mere $5.80. Quite right, DH. On Intrade you have to pay $57.60 for Obama and only $38.00 for McCain. You can pick up Hillary for a mere $5.80.

]]> By: JohnJames http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/05/27/us08-obama-may-struggle-against-mccain/#comment-627 JohnJames Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-627 Who are those McCain (Reagan) Democrats? Largely, they're working class Catholics who have always been committed to genuine social justice but who wont have a bar of some tight-arsed left liberal lawyer telling them that the way forward is to talk to tyrants and kill unborn children, in the name of freedom! Who are those McCain (Reagan) Democrats? Largely, they’re working class Catholics who have always been committed to genuine social justice but who wont have a bar of some tight-arsed left liberal lawyer telling them that the way forward is to talk to tyrants and kill unborn children, in the name of freedom!

]]> By: Michael Tomlinson http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/05/27/us08-obama-may-struggle-against-mccain/#comment-628 Michael Tomlinson Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-628 Hang on a second: * Pollster.com's average of all polls has Obama 1 point ahead of McCain * SurveyUSA says Obama is ahead of McCain in Ohio by 48% to 39%. Which polls are you looking at? Hang on a second:

* Pollster.com’s average of all polls has Obama 1 point ahead of McCain

* SurveyUSA says Obama is ahead of McCain in Ohio by 48% to 39%.

Which polls are you looking at?

]]> By: Michael Tomlinson http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/05/27/us08-obama-may-struggle-against-mccain/#comment-629 Michael Tomlinson Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-629 Quite right, RD. On Intrade you have to pay $57.60 for Obama and only $38.00 for McCain. You can pick up Hillary for a mere $5.80. Quite right, RD. On Intrade you have to pay $57.60 for Obama and only $38.00 for McCain. You can pick up Hillary for a mere $5.80.

]]> By: Malcolm McLean http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/05/27/us08-obama-may-struggle-against-mccain/#comment-630 Malcolm McLean Thu, 01 Jan 1970 10:00:00 +0000 #comment-630 I heard that Ralph Nader has nominated for the 2008 US Presidential contest. It was suggested that he cost the Democrats previous elections. Why has there been no comment about him in this campaign? I heard that Ralph Nader has nominated for the 2008 US Presidential contest. It was suggested that he cost the Democrats previous elections. Why has there been no comment about him in this campaign?

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